NHL Divisions: Then (start of season) & Now (now)I have some good news for readers this week. For those of you that complained about the length of my articles, note the wider space available for writing on the blog. This will allow my articles to appear shorter.
Last week I ranked the 10 best bets you should have made over the first half of the season. Reflecting on those picks I realized that I made a mistake ranking Carolina at +4300 over Atlanta at +10000. Atlanta has been playing decently after their 0-6-0 start and now leads the Southeast Division. Seeing a new division leader in the Southeast prompted me to review the division odds as well as my picks for the division before the season.
The full September 27th article can be found here.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Central Division
…………………….Average Odds ….. Best Odds….. Site……………………. Site Rating
Detroit …………… -230 ………………….-163 ………..Skybet ………………………B+
Nashville ……….. +337………………… +600 ……… Betsafe ………………….. (NR)
St. Louis ………….+1043………………. +1200…….. Skybet……………………… B+
Columbus ……… +2063 ……………… +2500…….. Skybet……………………… B+
Chicago …………. +2113………………… +2800…… .Skybet……………………… B+
My play: Detroit -163
I said: “Although I hate laying chalk (taking a favorite at odds of less than even money) on a futures bet, Detroit is the clear favorite to win the division and could run away with the Division early. This two unit investment could pay out by December.”
Analysis: Wow! Predicting Detroit to win the division. I am a geeneeus.
Northwest Division
…………………….Average Odds…..Best Odds…..Site……………………. Site Rating
Colorado ………. +251……………….. +275 ………..Stan James………………..B
Vancouver……… +259………………. +320 ………..Betsafe…………………… (NR)
Calgary………….. +261 ……………… +285………….Betsson ……………………. B-
Minnesota ………+341………………. +420 ………..Betsafe …………………….(NR)
Edmonton …….. +1383……………. +2200………..Skybet………………………. B+
My play: I passed
I said: “The Northwest division is a toss up between Colorado, Calgary, Vancouver, and probably Minnesota.”
Analysis: Again no earth-shattering predictions here. All four teams are separated by two points. Best bets from this group are Vancouver at +320 and the Wild at +420.
Pacific Division
…………………….Average Odds….. Best Odds….. Site……………………. Site Rating
Anaheim ………..+111 ………………..+125 …………..Skybet ……………….. B+
San Jose ………..+159…………………+200…………..Gamebookers…….. B-
Dallas ……………+469 ……………… +600…………..Betsson ……………….B-
Los Angeles …..+1450…………….. +2000…………Stan James…………. B
Phoenix …………+2625………………+3300…………Gamebookers………B-
My play: San Jose +200
I said: “With Scott Niedermayer’s return to Anaheim uncertain and San Jose having basically the same team as last year (minus Bill Guerin but with a young, improving defense), I see no reason why they cannot match the Ducks stride for stride.”
Analysis: Good for me. San Jose is one point up on Anaheim with three games in hand. San Jose was able to build up a lead with Niedermayer out. Can they hold on? Maybe Dallas at +600 is the best bet but I would still rather have San Jose at +200.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Atlantic Division
…………………….Average Odds…..Best Odds…..Site…………………….Site Rating
Pittsburgh………..+197 ………………+220…………Betsafe…………………..(NR)
NY Rangers………+203………………+225…………Gamebookers………….B-
New Jersey………+400………………+500…………Betsafe…………………..(NR)
Philadelphia…….+413……………….+450………….Skybet……………………..B+
New York (I)……+1225……………..+1500………..Unibet……………………(NR)
My play: Pass
I said: “Like the Northwest Division, the Atlantic Division is also too close to call. Comparing the average odds of each team to win with the highest odds of each team to win, there is no value in the Atlantic Division. This is an easy pass.”
Analysis: Looks like the Devils at +500 were the best bet out of these five teams. The Atlantic is the most competitive division thus far, as all five teams are within six points of each other. Note: New Jersey has played only 19 of their 45 games at home.
Northeast Division
…………………….Average Odds ….. Best Odds….. Site……………………. Site Rating
Ottawa……………-132………………….+100…………..Skybet………………….B+
Buffalo……………+257…………………+385…………..Betsson…………………B-
Toronto………….+819…………………+1200…………Stan James…………..B
Montreal………..+1016……………….+1400…………Skybet…………………..B+
Boston……………+1775………………..+2000………..Skybet………………….B+
My play: Buffalo +385
I said: “Buffalo is strictly a value play. I don’t think Buffalo will finish ahead of Ottawa in the standings, but I still like them for 1.5 units at +385.”
Analysis: Oops. Buffalo was strictly a value play. They are never going to catch Ottawa. Watch out for Montreal though, +1400 and currently eight points behind a struggling Senators (two wins in regulation over last eight games) team.
Southeast Division
…………………….Average Odds…..Best Odds…..Site…………………….Site Rating
Tampa Bay……….+248……………….+350………..Betsafe……………………(NR)
Carolina…………..+263………………..+300……….Gamebookers……………B-
Atlanta…………….+274………………..+350………..Stan James………………..B
Florida…………….+425………………..+600……….Betsson………………………B-
Washington……..+903……………….+1400………Skybet………………………..B+
My play: Washington +1400, anyone besides Carolina
I said: “The Southeast is my favorite division from a wagering perspective. All five teams have a legitimate chance to win. Washington is strictly a value play, as I don’t think they will win, but I expect all five teams to compete for the division. At odds of +1400 it can’t hurt to take a shot at 1.5 units.”
Analysis: The Capitals will not be able to recover from the loss of Michael Nylander. This division is once again wide open after Carolina jumped out to an early lead before struggling over the last two months.
Other than the Central and the Northeast, NHL divisions are wide open. What’s your take?
For illegal curve, I’m Ari Baum-Cohen, or as my friends like to call me, ABC.
About the writer: Ari-Baum Cohen’s first sports betting victory came at age 8 when he won his father’s office pool. He screamed like a 14 year-old girl at a Jermaine Dupri concert when Tampa Bay (had at +3500 to win Cup) and Calgary (had at +15000 to win Cup) made the Stanley Cup finals.
January 10, 2008: 10 Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Quarter of the Season
January 3, 2008: Glossary of Terms Used on Frozen Assets
December 27, 2007: Ho Ho Horrible Homestands and Road Warriors
December 14, 2007: Western Conference: Starting Odds, Current Odds, Highest Odds
December 7, 2007: Eastern Conference: Starting Odds, Current Odds, Highest Odds
November 29, 2007: How to Find the Sportsbook For You, The NHL’s best division – The Central(?)
November 22, 2007: 10 Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Quarter of the Season
November 15, 2007: Explaining the Exchange(2), Random Thoughts on the Futures
November 9, 2007: Exaplaining the Exchange(1), This Weeks Best Bets
November 1, 2007: Profiling the Eastern Conference Teams
October 25, 2007: Profiling the Western Conference Teams
October 18, 2007: To Win the Conference or the Cup? Frozen Assets’ European Vacation
October, 11, 2007: Top 5 Hockey Futures Books, Stanley Cup Odds
October 4, 2007: Bad Lines, Soft Lines, and Conference Odds
September 27, 2007: Avoiding Fraudulent Sportsbooks and Preview of Division Betting
September 20, 2007: Introduction to Frozen Assets and Futures Highlights From Last Year
