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Frozen Assets – 10 Future Bets


Welcome to another exciting edition of Frozen Assets. Loyal readers, I hope you have missed me this week as much as I missed both of you. This week we are following up on our November 22 edition of Frozen Assets:
10 Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over The First Quarter of the Season.

Much has happened in the NHL since that article was written a month and a half ago – most of it was not positive news for us. The teams that I was hyping as having value early in the season: Columbus, Chicago, Boston, and others have cooled down. But hey, when you play long shots on overachieving teams, they often come back to reality. As some of the earlier long shots fade, other teams have stepped up their performance.

Here were the 10 best bets and rankings on November 22, 2007:

10. Boston +10000
9. Columbus +7000 (Conference)
8. Ottawa +900
7. St. Louis +5000 (Conference)

6. NYI +5000 (Conference)

5. Chicago +7000 (Conference)
4. Montreal +6900

3. Carolina +4300

2. Atlanta +10000

1. Philadelphia +8000

How have the best bets changed from November 22nd (previous rankings in parentheses)?

10. Boston Bruins (10) Odds: +10000 Site: Carib Status: Changed November 26th

After a 2-0 home win over Columbus on December 15th, the Bruins dropped 6 in a row, giving up over 4 goals a game during that span. They have since won 3 of 4. Which Bruins team will show up in the second half? In order to make the playoffs, Boston will have to recapture the title of “hardest working team in the NHL”. Tim Thomas has played well lately, but it looks like Patrice Bergeron is finished for the year. Boston is available at +7000 at Betfair.

9. New York Islanders (6) Odds: +5000 (Conference) Site: Stan James Status: Changed October 10th

The Islanders are on a 4 game losing streak, but 3 of those 4 losses have come in extra time. Or, the Islanders have only lost 2 of their last 10 games in regulation. It’s all about how you spin the numbers. Ted Nolan has been getting the most out of limited talent, and the Islanders have been scoring more goals lately. The last 5-playoff spots in the East are wide open at this point. Why can’t a hard working team with stellar goaltending sneak into the post season? The Islanders are available at +3500 (to win the Conference) at Stan James.

8. Carolina Hurricanes (3) Odds: +4300 Site: Betfair Status: Changed October 12th

Carolina at +4300 slipped 5 spots in the rankings. They have gone 10-12-1 since the last rankings came out, allowing their Southeastern division rivals to catch up to them. Cam Ward has also been shaky, as the ‘Canes have given up the 4th most goals in the NHL. No more excuses for Carolina; they must establish dominance in their weak division to be taken seriously once the postseason starts. Carolina is available at +2600 at Betfair.

7. Calgary Flames (NR) Odds: +5000 Site: Betfair Status: Changed December 10th

Calgary is (sorry I couldn’t resist) on fire! In their last 17 games they are 12-2-3. Less then a month ago they were available at +5000 at Betfair and out of a playoff spot. Now they are one point away from the division lead. Unlike Flames teams of recent years, this year’s team is winning with their offense. Jarome Iginla and Kristian Huselius are on pace for career years and the Flames are third in the Conference in scoring. Calgary is available at odds of +3300 at Betdirect.

6. Detroit Red Wings (NR) Odds: +1015 Site: The Greek Status: Changed October 29th

Perhaps I made a mistake leaving Detroit off the list last time. They are the only dominant team in the league, so having the best odds on them should make a list of best bets. Detroit is a mind blowing 26-1-1 against non-divisional opponents! They are currently +450 at Betdirect.

5. St. Louis Blues (7) Odds: +5000 (Conference) Site: Carib Status: Changed December 2nd

The Blues move up two spots despite a poor second quarter of the season. After a rough streak where the Blues won 2 of 10 games, they are seemingly back on track. They occupy the 8th spot in the West with games in hand. If the Blues are to contend in the Western Conference, they must rely on Manny Legace and his 2.06 Goals Against Average. Stan James is offering St. Louis to win the Conference at +2800.

4. Montreal Canadiens +6900 (4) Odds: +6900 Site: Betfair Status: Changed October 29th

The Habs remain the 4th best bet of the season thus far. Halfway through the season they have not faded and their power play is still tops in the league. Can they keep it up (unlike last year)? Les Habitants are available at +4200 at Betfair.

3. New Jersey Devils (NR) Odds: +5000 Site: Betfair Status: Changed November 30th

New Jersey enters the rankings as the third best bet of the year. We should have known the Devils would play better then their early season record indicated. Starting the season on a 9 game road-trip skewed their record early in the season. After climbing above .500 (including a 9 game winning-streak) it took a while for the odds to reflect the second quarter success of the Devils. Brodeur & Co. sit in second place in the Eastern Conference, 17-5-1 in their last 23 games. The best odds on New Jersey to win the Stanley Cup is +1800 at Betfair.

2. Phoenix Coyotes (NR) Odds: +15000 (Conference) Site: 5Dimes Status: Changed December 28th

Most people predicted the Coyotes would finish at or near the bottom of the Western Conference. While there is plenty of season left, Phoenix is on a 5 game winning streak and is two points out of a playoff spot. They also have one of the best road records in the league. The Great One is getting the most out of his young team, and at +15000 to win the Western Conference they enter the rankings as the second best bet of the year so far. The odds posted by 5dimes were only up for a few days; either they realized that +15000 was too generous, or someone hit them hard. Phoenix is still a good play at their current price of +7000 to win the Western Conference at Stan James.

1. Philadelphia Flyers (1) Odds: +8000 Site: William Hill Status: Changed October 16th The Flyers struggled for a period in the second quarter of the season, but they have bounced back to win 5 of 6. The Flyers offense gets a boost as Simon Gagne is expected to return tonight against the Rangers. Not much else to say about this bet other than “William Hill what were you thinking?” The Flyers are available at +2600 at Betfair.

Honorable Mentions:

Ottawa Senators (8) Odds: +900 Site: Wagerstreet Status: Changed October 16th

Atlanta Thrashers (2) Odds: +10000 Site: Carib Status: Changed November 26th

It has been hard for me to let go of Chicago and Columbus, two underdog teams that were playing well at the start of the season. Unfortunately, the Western Conference is unfolding according to pre-season expectations. But hey, it’s never too late to say “it’s still early.”

For illegal curve, I’m Ari Baum Cohen

About the writer: Ari-Baum Cohen’s first sports betting victory came at age 8 when he won his father’s office pool. He screamed like a 14 year-old girl at a Jermaine Dupri concert when Tampa Bay (had at +3500 to win Cup) and Calgary (had at +15000 to win Cup) made the Stanley Cup finals.

January 3, 2008: Glossary of Terms Used on Frozen Assets
December 27, 2007: Ho Ho Horrible Homestands and Road Warriors
December 14, 2007: Western Conference: Starting Odds, Current Odds, Highest Odds
December 7, 2007: Eastern Conference: Starting Odds, Current Odds, Highest Odds
November 29, 2007: How to Find the Sportsbook For You, The NHL’s best division – The Central(?)
November 22, 2007: 10 Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Quarter of the Season
November 15, 2007: Explaining the Exchange(2), Random Thoughts on the Futures
November 9, 2007: Exaplaining the Exchange(1), This Weeks Best Bets
November 1, 2007: Profiling the Eastern Conference Teams
October 25, 2007: Profiling the Western Conference Teams
October 18, 2007: To Win the Conference or the Cup? Frozen Assets’ European Vacation
October, 11, 2007: Top 5 Hockey Futures Books, Stanley Cup Odds
October 4, 2007: Bad Lines, Soft Lines, and Conference Odds
September 27, 2007: Avoiding Fraudulent Sportsbooks and Preview of Division Betting
September 20, 2007: Introduction to Frozen Assets and Futures Highlights From Last Year