Courtesy of an incredibly dramatic finish to Game 7, the Winnipeg Jets are off to round two. Waiting for them is the Dallas Stars, a team that the Jets went 3-1-0 against during the regular season, including two impressive wins in the final month.
A lot has changed since then for both teams. Both of which endured thrilling Game 7 victories, overcoming two-goal deficits in the third period on home ice to keep their seasons alive.
Here are five keys to the Winnipeg Jets defeating the Dallas Stars in round two in the first-ever playoff matchup between the two franchises.
Get healthy quickly
Let’s start with the obvious. Health is paramount in the playoffs, but for the Jets & Stars, it’s an even bigger key than you might think. Scott Arniel pointed out on Tuesday that the hits in the St. Louis series were 325 for the Winnipeg Jets and 308 for the St. Louis Blues, and the Jets felt the effect of those hits.
Let’s start with Winnipeg. Mark Scheifele exited in Game 5, and Josh Morrissey exited in Game 7, with both games ending in Winnipeg Jets wins. At Tuesday’s optional skate, both players skated in a yellow, non-contact jersey.
Photo Credit: Colby Spence (Illegal Curve)
Scott Arniel said that they are both day-to-day and game-time decisions for Game 1, not tipping his hand on how healthy these players are.
However early in the series, Winnipeg can get these players back, the better. Neal Pionk logged an impressive 46:15 in Game 7 as the game went to double overtime without the Jets’ top defenceman, and if Morrissey misses any time in this series, Samberg & Pionk will undoubtedly be tasked with top pairing minutes.
As for the Stars. Miro Heiskanen and Jason Robertson both did not play a single minute in round one against the Colorado Avalanche, and Pete DeBoer said that both will return at some point against the Jets in round two.
Who can get healthier, faster?
Likely Dallas, as Jason Robertson was a full participant in Tuesday’s practice, skating on a line with Wyatt Johnston and Mason Marchment, and partaking in power play work as well.
We’ll see if either Scheifele or Morrissey can be cleared in time for Game 1 Wednesday evening, and with the returns near for all four of these key players, whoever can get to full health the quickest will have an advantage.
Hellebuyck/Oettinger matchup
Team USA teammates from the 4 Nations Face-off tournament, Connor Hellebuyck and Jake Oettinger, are set to face off in what should be an incredibly intriguing goaltender matchup.
Jake Oettinger posted a 2.85 goals against average, .911 SV%, and stopped 3.80 goals above expected in round one, making 27 saves in Game 7 to advance.
Photo Credit: Colby Spence (Illegal Curve)
Connor Hellebuyck posted a 3.80 goals against average, an .830 SV%, and posted a -9.67 goals saved above expected. It was a series to forget for Hellebuyck, who was pulled in all three road games.
An incredibly candid Connor Hellebuyck spoke to the media at Canada Life Centre on Tuesday and spoke about his play in the third period and overtime that helped propel the Jets to victory.
“Yeah, I definitely felt a little something there,” Hellebuyck said about the turning point. “At this point, the pressure has kind of fallen off. The weight of the world is off my shoulders. And that had nothing to do with anyone else. It’s just the mental grind of that series. That being said in that moment, it was a second chance for me. I just had to go and play my game and do what I do best. I don’t need to do everything. I just need to play my game and do the best I can and bring it every single night.”
Pionk gave a peek behind the scenes look at an intermission conversation before Hellebuyck shut the door.
“I think it was after the third one, in the intermission there, (Hellebuyck) said ‘they’re not getting another one.’ So when he says something like that, he believes it. And we believed him and we knew we had to get two more for him and then we’re going to do the rest from there.”
It was clear that Hellebuyck looked like the soon-to-be three-time Vezina Trophy winner in overtime, and if he says the pressure is off, could that be a potential turning point for him?
Hellebuyck will have to be much better if Winnipeg wants to win this series, and especially so when facing Jake Oettinger.
Recalibrate the road game and find success
The NHL’s best road team during the regular season was the Winnipeg Jets. That was not the case in St. Louis, as Winnipeg was run out of the building in games three, four, and six.
Not to say that the Jets cannot simply win every home game to the Stanley Cup, but at some point, it would make their work a lot easier if they were able to steal a game in Dallas.
Winnipeg will have to prevent the quick stretches of defensive breakdowns. In both games four and six against the Blues, the game was tied 1-1 halfway through the second period, with signs of the elite road team we had seen all season long.
Photo Credit: Colby Spence (Illegal Curve)
Then, a 5-10 minute stretch in both games undid all of their work, as Hellebuyck seemingly couldn’t stop shots, defencemen couldn’t shut down plays, and the Jets couldn’t get the puck out of their zone. Both of those games were won and lost in five minutes.
The Jets, and more notably Connor Hellebuyck, will have to get back to their stellar road game in this series and win a game in Dallas.
Slow down the red-hot Mikko Rantanen
Mikko Rantanen had a slow start to round one with just one point through the first four games. Then, in the final three games of the series, he posted five goals and six assists for 11 points.
He is red hot coming into this series.
Playing on a line with Mikael Granlund and Roope Hintz, Rantanen seems to have found some chemistry with his new team, so much so that he scored a hat trick in Game 7 to send his former team (Colorado) home for the summer.
Photo Credit: Colby Spence (Illegal Curve)
He’s a big reason that Dallas’ power play has clicked along at a 30.4% rate so far in the postseason as well.
On home ice, I’d expect the Dylan Samberg and Neal Pionk pairing to shoulder the bulk of the Mikko Rantanen match-up minutes, regardless of Josh Morrissey’s health.
“He’s an elite goal scorer in this league. He’s one of those top-10 guys that know how to put pucks in the net,” Scott Arniel said of Mikko Rantanen.” He’s a horse. So we’ve got to know, along with a lot of their other top guys, that we’ve got to play him accordingly because he can certainly be very dangerous.
In last year’s playoffs against the Avalanche, Rantanen had two goals and seven assists in five games. Winnipeg will look to avoid a repeat of that this time around.
Secondary scoring
Kyle Connor is tied for the NHL playoffs lead in points with 12 through the first seven games. He came up clutch in games one and two, had a few key assists in Game 7, and looks to be on a mission in this run.
Key in any series is the secondary scorers supporting the elite ones. No better example than Cole Perfetti, who achieved Game 7 legend status, tying the game with 1.6 seconds left for his second goal of the game.
Photo Credit: Colby Spence (Illegal Curve)
Scott Arniel acknowledged Perfetti as a Game 7 hero.
“Cole Perfetti, he had all those chances that he had in those first early games, and then in Game 6 he gets a power-play goal, knocks one out of the air, great play. And then guess who the hero is, one of the heroes, in Game 7.”
Nino Niederreiter scored twice in the series, same with Vladislav Namestnikov, and Adam Lowry scored the double overtime winner. The Jets will need continued contributions from these players as the second round rolls along, and with Scheifele potentially returning, Winnipeg can get back to a potent offensive attack.
The Jets overcame Hellebuyck’s struggles in round one, and they’ll need their secondary scorers to continue their contributions moving forward.
“It’s about our team staying together, pulling each other along and pulling each other through the hard times. And that’s kind of what everybody did for Helle. And now, you know what, we’re expecting him to continue to play his part.”
Game 1 is on Wednesday at 8:30 PM
Stay tuned to Illegalcurve.com for the latest Jets news from Wednesday morning’s skate, and be sure to tune in to a Special Edition Illegal Curve pre-game show live from Cityplace starting at 6:30 PM CDT (or join us here). You can also join us after the final buzzer for the Illegal Curve Post-Game Show (be sure to smash that like/subscribe button) which will include post-game interviews from Jets players as well as from head coach Scott Arniel.
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