The Winnipeg Jets’ 2024-25 preseason is over, as the team looks ahead to game number one of the regular season against the reigning Western Conference Champion Edmonton Oilers on Wednesday, Oct. 9th.
There was plenty to take away from the weeks of intense practices and prospect-filled games as Scott Arniel begins his first season in Winnipeg as the head coach.
New look special teams the biggest change
The Winnipeg Jets’ biggest change heading into 2024-25 comes on both special teams units.
Starting with the power play, Nikolaj Ehlers finds himself on the top unit this season in an unfamiliar position, as he will occupy the bumper/high-slot role for most of the power plays.
Photo Credit: Colby Spence (Illegal Curve)
However, one thing that has become evident through the training camp skates and a handful of preseason games is that no player is stapled to their position with the man advantage. You’ll see Ehlers and Mark Scheifele switch constantly, along with Gabriel Vilardi popping out in front of the net and Kyle Connor finding open ice.
Puck and player movement has been a point of emphasis for this coaching staff, and that has been more than clear in the preseason. The Jets’ power play ranked 22nd in the NHL last season at 18.5%, and despite their 110-point season, the power play cost them many opportunities to win.
Photo Credit: Colby Spence (Illegal Curve)
Overreacting to the preseason isn’t wise, but what’s the fun in that? I’m expecting this unit to take a leap forward this year and re-enter the top 12 in league-wide power play percentage. A big reason I’m expecting this unit to take a step forward is a bet on Vilardi to remain healthy and be a difference maker.
Since the Winnipeg Jets moved back in 2011, Vilardi ranks first in power-play goals per 60 at 3.49, ahead of Patrik Laine, who was clicking along at 3.26 PPG/60 when wearing a Jets uniform. He has scored at the highest rate on the power play of any 2.0 Jet we have seen, and a full season of him will do wonders for the Jets’ power play numbers.
The Jets are “running it back” with last year’s deployment
Based on how Scott Arniel ran his lineup for the final preseason game, it’s safe to assume that the Jets are going to be running back one of their most common configurations from last season.
Jets fans on Twitter/X were quick to voice their displeasure with the lines, and the concern starts at the top. In 197 even-strength minutes last year, the line of Connor-Scheifele-Vilardi was outscored 11-13 and controlled only 35.7% of the expected goals. That is simply not good enough for a top line, and by putting them back together to begin this season, it’s clear that Arniel thinks they have another gear they can hit as a trio.
Photo Credit: Colby Spence (Illegal Curve)
The second line of Ehlers-Namestnikov-Perfetti posted strong results last season, as did the dominant third line consisting of Nino Niederrieter, Adam Lowry, and Mason Appleton. If the top line continues to lose their minutes, the Jets will be placing a lot of responsibility on the middle-six to win their minutes as handily as they did last season.
As for the back end, the five-on-five dominance of Josh Morrissey and Dylan DeMelo is a sure-fire bet to continue this season, with question marks coming down the lineup.
In 151.2 minutes last season, Dylan Samberg and Neal Pionk posted a 58.9% expected goal percentage and outscored their opponents 4-1. It’s a small sample size from a sheltered role, but the Jets are betting on that continuing in a second-pairing role this season as Samberg slides up to cover the loss of Brenden Dillon.
The third pairing was mostly set until Ville Heinola and Logan Stanley each underwent surgery and will be out a minimum of a month. Haydn Fleury steps into the role alongside Colin Miller, who I will label as the “Winnipeg Jets 2024-25 preseason MVP” as he finished with three goals from the blue line.
Photo Credit: Colby Spence (Illegal Curve)
The concerns of this lineup are clear, and it starts with the top trio of Connor-Scheifele-Vilardi. How quickly will Scott Arniel be willing to pivot if that trio fails to produce early on? He spoke about the possibility of running a balanced top-nine as opposed to a top-six/bottom-six configuration last week, and that remains an option for the Jets in 2024-25. Time will tell, but I think their leash will be shorter this season, as the Jets themselves will have less of a margin for error with the changes this offseason.
Lambert, Salomonsson, and Chibrikov start the season with Moose
The other major issue that fans are taking with this lineup is the lack of youth, as Brad Lambert, Elias Salomonsson, and Nikita Chibrikov all look destined for the Manitoba Moose despite making it to the end of camp.
Photo Credit: Colby Spence (Illegal Curve)
While Lambert found himself on the scoresheet throughout the preseason, we may be looking at another 2017-18 Kyle Connor situation. Sent down to the AHL for four games, and in the event of an injury (in that case, Mathieu Perrault) gets called up and never looks back.
I have no problem with the decision by the organization to send these players down to play big minutes for the Manitoba Moose. However, if there is an early-season injury and these players are not the ones being called up to fill that gap, that is where I, along with many others, would begin to question the decision.
The biggest positive to take away from this situation is the fact that these players showcased their strengths in the preseason, and if they continue to build on them in the AHL, we could see them playing a big role for the NHL club sooner rather than later.
Rapid fire takeaways
- Cole Perfetti is looking to prove himself this season
Cole Perfetti missed four days and two games of training camp/preseason. Will that affect him at all come opening night? I say it doesn’t, and he is in for a big season on Winnipeg’s second line. He signed a two-year deal, so while this isn’t a true “contract year” for the 22-year-old, he still has plenty to prove at the NHL level and has a massive opportunity to do so in 2024-25.
- Nikolaj Ehlers’ situation remains unchanged
Nikolaj Ehlers is one of the many Jets who find themselves in a contract year, as he is a pending unrestricted free agent (UFA). Ehlers has yet to answer about any ongoing contract discussions, and while the 28-year-old seems to have an expanded role on the power play this season, his expiring contract is bound to be a topic of discussion near the trade deadline.
- Massive opportunity ahead for Dylan Samberg
The last note on preseason is one I felt flew under the radar, and that’s the expanded role for Dylan Samberg this season. He crushed his third-pairing minutes last season alongside Nate Schmidt, and with the departure of Dillon, he now takes a step up to play alongside Neal Pionk in the top four. This is a massive year for Samberg, who is also on an expiring contract (RFA) and has the opportunity to prove to the organization that he is a top-four defenceman.
