The Stanley Cup Playoffs have arrived, as the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Winnipeg Jets get set to take on the St. Louis Blues on Saturday, April 19.
A 2019 rematch? Hellebuyck vs. Binnington? The Schenn brothers playing against one another? This series is full of enticing storylines.
The Jets are motivated to right their wrongs from their recent quick outs in the playoffs last year to the Avalanche and the season prior to the Golden Knights.
“We’re looking forward to everything that comes with the playoffs,” Adam Lowry said. “That atmosphere. The emotion. The pressure. We’re really excited about this group and really excited to get things underway on Saturday.”
Here are six keys to breaking their first-round losing streak and defeating the Blues in round one, who are 19-4-3 since the Four Nations Break.
Connor Hellebuyck needs to outduel Jordan Binnington
The Winnipeg Jets have the best goaltender in the league. He is about to win the Vezina Trophy for a second-straight year and third time in his career, and potentially even win the Hart Trophy as the league’s most valuable player.
Goaltending has to be an advantage for Winnipeg in round one.
In Winnipeg, you are likely tired of hearing about Hellebuyck’s perceived playoff struggles.
Photo Credit: Colby Spence (Illegal Curve)
In St. Louis, Jordan Binnington is often described as a goaltender who elevates his play when the playoffs begin.
Since the Four Nations break, where Binnington was sensational for Canada in their win over the United States, he has a .900 SV% and 2.69 goals against average.
From a Jets perspective, they are hoping to have plenty of narrative-shifting done by the time the first round concludes.
Arniel was asked about the goaltender matchup and acknowledged Binnington’s stellar play for Canada at the Four Nations before outlining what he hopes is a strong round for his workhorse netminder.
“For Helly, he’s proven how great of a goaltender he is,” Arniel said. “This is two guys going head-to-head, and I’m hoping our goaltender comes out on top over their goaltender.”
Winnipeg needs to win the special-teams battle
The Jets found out last season just how key the special teams battle is to any playoff series.
Over the entirety of the 2024-25 regular season, the Winnipeg Jets have owned the top power play in the league (28.9%). However, that has slid since the Four Nations break, where they have gone 12/65 (18.5%), and the St. Louis Blues have gone 19/69 (27.5%) in that same time frame.
No Gabriel Vilardi and Nikolaj Ehlers for Winnipeg’s top unit means they are losing serious firepower. Having an elite power play can win you a series, and it can come up big in clutch moments. Can Cole Perfetti and Alex Iafallo step up and have that top power play unit clicking at a strong level?
Photo Credit: Colby Spence (Illegal Curve)
The flip side of that is shutting down St. Louis’ red-hot power play, clicking at nearly 30% since the break.
Special teams and goaltending have been two major advantages for the Jets this season, making them the two biggest keys to the series.
Shut down the Robert Thomas line
Robert Thomas has led the charge for this red-hot streak the Blues have been on. Since the Four Nations, he leads the NHL in points (40) and primary assists (18) in just 26 games played.
His most common linemates over that time have been Jake Neighbours and Pavel Buchnevich. In their 189 five-on-five minutes, they have outscored their opponents 13-5, have a 60.2% expected goals percentage, and have controlled 55.49% of the scoring chances.
On Monday, April 7, the Connor-Scheifele-Iafallo trio was tasked with shutting down Robert Thomas at even-strength, and they did an exceptional job. Will Scott Arniel stick with that matchup, or match his defensive-minded captain, Adam Lowry, up against the Blues’ top players? How Arniel manages this matchup throughout the series is one of the biggest keys to success for Winnipeg.
Photo Credit: Colby Spence (Illegal Curve)
There’s always a situation in games where you may not be out on the matchup that maybe I’m looking for,” Arniel said about line-matching. “So it’s your responsibility to make sure that you defend the right way or take advantage of the situation you’re in.“
“If you’re our fourth line and you’re out against Thomas or Schenn’s line, that you have responsibility, and that’s where our group has been really good this year.”
Secondary contributors
Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor, and Josh Morrissey need to be at the top of their game if the Jets want to win this series. That part is obvious.
One of the biggest keys to this series is how Winnipeg’s second wave takes advantage of St. Louis’ depth, both up front and on the blue line.
Cole Perfetti played just over 10 minutes in last year’s playoff series. With no Nikolaj Ehlers (week-to-week) and Gabriel Vilardi (day-to-day), this is a huge opportunity for Perfetti to step up and provide secondary scoring.
Photo Credit: Colby Spence (Illegal Curve)
Dylan Samberg was in a sheltered, third-pairing role last season. Now on the Jets’ second-pairing, he has put together an elite breakout season. Behind Josh Morrissey, Samberg will need to continue his elite play going up against the Blues’ top-six forwards in a tough matchup role.
The Jets have gotten offence from the bottom of their lineup through the season, but with the injuries to Ehlers and Vilardi, there’s ultimately a larger need to get a few goals from the bottom-six in round one.
Health
Health is vital in any playoff series. However, these teams both have an opportunity to get healthy as the series moves along.
Here in Winnipeg, Gabriel Vilardi has skated for three straight days. He was listed “day-to-day” by Arniel on Tuesday. While his status for Game 1 on Saturday is in doubt, he could be healthy enough to return in the middle of the series.
Photo Credit: Dave Minuk (Illegal Curve)
What a boost that would be for Winnipeg’s power play.
In St. Louis, Dylan Holloway was listed “week-to-week” on April 4th after suffering a lower-body injury. He had been one of St. Louis’ best forwards since they made their coaching change to Jim Montgomery.
There has been no further update on his status since the injury, but he would provide a major boost to the Blues’ forward core if he were able to return at any point in the series.
Feed off physicality and home-ice advantage
The Jets are gearing up for this to be a physical series against a big and physical opponent. Kevin Cheveldayoff’s trade deadline additions of Brandon Tanev and Luke Schenn will surely play a massive role in that department.
The Jets will also look to feed off of their crowd, the Winnipeg whiteout, to bring that extra level necessary to grind through what shapes up to be a physical playoff series.
Photo Credit: Colby Spence (Illegal Curve)
“Never gets old. Best atmosphere in hockey,” Pionk said about the whiteout. “I always tell my friends I played in a lot of places, played internationally, played in some gold medal games, whatever, state championships. And this is the best, best it gets is the whiteout.”
Adam Lowry shared the same thoughts as Pionk did regarding the whiteout.
“Yeah, there’s nothing like the whiteout. It’s incredible. It’s what makes playoff hockey in Winnipeg so electric.”
It all gets underway Saturday, April 19th. We get things started with all the latest Jets and Moose news in the AM Papers on illegalcurve.com which are available starting at 7 AM CDT, then you can join us for two hours of hockey talk as we get the Playoff Preview show underway on Illegal Curve at 9 AM CDT. Four hours after that show concludes we are back on the air live at Cityplace for the Illegal Curve Pre-Game Show as we get you prepared for game 1. Puck drop is scheduled for 5 PM CDT and then after the final buzzer join us on the Illegal Curve Post-Game Show.
The full schedule for the Winnipeg Jets’ first round can be found here.
