The Winnipeg Jets generated enough chances to win, a Dallas Stars top-six forward had a hat trick, and Jake Oettinger was sensational. I’m not talking about Game 1.
Game 4 of this series was familiar for many reasons, and it’s one that put the Jets on the brink of elimination with a 3-1 loss.
Winnipeg Jets pushed to the brink of elimination
Winnipeg’s road losing streak in the playoffs has reached nine consecutive games, dating back to the 2022-23 playoffs against the Vegas Golden Knights.
This game started well for Winnipeg before Dylan DeMelo took a careless holding-the-stick penalty, sending Dallas to a first-period power play.
On the power play, Mikael Granlund walks into the zone and fires a shot glove side on Connor Hellebuyck to open the scoring. Per SN Stats on Twitter, that is the 11th goal Hellebuyck has given up from 30+ feet away in this year’s playoffs, the worst among all goaltenders.
“I had a clean enough look,” Hellebuyck said on the opening goal. “It was just a damn perfect shot, just above my pad and below my glove. I don’t know… I need to review it and see it again.”
Photo Credit: Colby Spence (Illegal Curve)
In Hellebuyck’s five road games this postseason, he has a .793 save percentage and has allowed -10.85 goals above expected, per Natural Stat Trick.
The road struggles don’t fall squarely on Hellebuyck’s shoulders. The Jets have only scored eight goals in five road games. Mark Scheifele has no points in his four games played on the road, a combined four shots on goal, and has been outscored 7-3 in his five-on-five minutes with an expected goals percentage of 29.51%.
It isn’t easy to win on the road in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. When your top-line center and starting goaltender post the numbers they have on the road, it becomes that much tougher.
With the Jets’ inability to win away from home, they now have to defend home ice on Thursday night to keep their season alive.
Mikael Granlund hat trick
Mikko Rantanen had the hat trick in Game 1, and Mikael Granlund matched him in Game 4, scoring all three goals for Dallas in the win.
The all-Finnish top line of Roope Hintz, Granlund, and Rantanen proved to be a problem yet again for Winnipeg, as Scott Arniel could not control the matchup on the road.
We did see the forward lines tweaked as Arniel attempted to combat the inability to line match.
Connor-Scheifele-Iafallo
Ehlers-Lowry-Vilardi
Niederreiter-Namestnikov-Perfetti
Tanev-Barron-Appleton
“Thought it was great. It worked out good,” Arniel said of his new-look lines. “We matched up well, and all the lines had zone time. They all did a great job.”
It will be fascinating to monitor Arniel’s lineup heading into a do-or-die Game 5.
While these lines contributed to strong five-on-five play, they only scored one goal, and the special teams battle got away from them yet again.
Special teams were a factor yet again
Another game, another special-teams battle lost for the Winnipeg Jets.
Dallas’ power play went 2-for-4 on the night, and Winnipeg’s power play countered with another dreadful 0-for-4 effort.
Photo Credit: Colby Spence (Illegal Curve)
Throughout an 82-game regular season, the Jets had the best goalie and the top power play. Through these playoffs, they’ve had the second-best goalie and power play in each of their first two series.
Special teams and goaltending can decide a series. Winnipeg’s power play failing to convert in key moments has cost them greatly, and it’s something that may play a large role in costing them this series.
Is there any belief left?
Cole Perfetti’s iconic Game 7 tying goal with 1.6 seconds left was accompanied by a sign behind Winnipeg’s bench that said “We Believe”, putting an exclamation point on one of the greatest moments in Jets franchise history.
Photo Credit: Colby Spence (Illegal Curve)
With Winnipeg’s backs against the wall in an elimination Game 5, now is the time to see how much belief this group has.
Coming back from down 3-1 is a difficult task, not an impossible one, and if Winnipeg can win at home in Game 5, anything can happen. There was a lot to like about their five-on-five play on the road in this loss despite the result. The good news for Jets fans is that they are 5-1 at home in these playoffs.
Up next: Game 5
The Winnipeg Jets’ season is on the line on Thursday at 8:50 PM CT at Canada Life Centre. Illegalcurve.com will have you covered before and after the game with the special edition of the pregame show and the postgame show after the final buzzer sounds over on YouTube.
