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Frozen Assets: Beards, Fish, Picks & Pucks

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The Moustache Needs a Beard

Sorry this isn’t about Amanda Beard posing nude in Playboy.

If you read last week’s Frozen Assets you would know that my account has been restricted at one of my favorite sportsbooks. My maximum payout on any bet there is now $500. To my dismay, due to the recent success of a certain longshot team, (some thanks must be given to Jacob at VegasWatch for tipping me off about that team) I find myself being restricted at a few of my other favorite sportsbooks. What to do?

This is new territory for me. I have always been able to go about my business uninterrupted, but these restrictions pose a major obstacle to my enjoyment of my favorite hobby. My options are to: a) do nothing, b) open another account under a pseudonym, c) find a beard.

A “beard” is a person who opens an account at a sportsbook and makes bets on behalf of another player. Usually it is because the original player has had their account restricted or they are trying the circumvent the house maximum. For obvious reasons, sportsbooks do not approve of this behavior.

If It Smells Like Trout…

One aspect of the handicapping contest I am really enjoying is seeing a group consensus within games. If you ask the casual sports bettor, they will often say that a game is “obvious” or “easy”. For example: “of course the Colorado/Los Angeles game was going to go over, both goaltenders are terrible.”

I can’t help but chuckle to myself when I hear this fall out of people’s mouths because it is in clear contravention of the #1 maxim of sportsbetting: the people setting the odds know more than we do.

Some games seem too easy – the lines seem to be so far off that you don’t understand what the people setting the odds were thinking. I concede this process is somewhat subjective, but two lines from the first month jump out of the water (sorry) as an example of fishy odds.

Fishy Line #1

October 16: Dallas @ St. Louis, St. Louis -108

At the time it was difficult to understand how St. Louis could be favored: Dallas was projected to contend for the West, while St. Louis was projected to contend for John Tavares. Turco was playing and there were no significant injuries.

What happened? St. Louis dominated the game and won 6-1.

Fishy Line #2

San Jose @ Anaheim, San Jose -113. This line opened at San Jose -113 and ended at a pick ’em – even fishier.

San Jose was 4-0-0 at the time and looked like the best team in the league. Anaheim was 0-4-0 and looked like a team in disarray.

What happened? Anahiem got a strong performance from Giguere en-route to a 4-0 victory.

I am aware these two stories are anecdotal evidence, and I have not yet found a way to measure “fishy” lines, but next time you are thinking that a game is “easy”, remember the first maxim of betting on sports: the people setting the odds know more than you.

Handicapper or Handicapped

I am pleased to report that through the first few weeks of the Handicapping Challenge we are up 26.68 units as a group. I am the first to admit that my results are due to luck. How about you?

First prize in the contest is a $50 credit at one of Illegal Curve’s Recommended Sportsbooks, and 2nd, 3rd, and 4th will receive Illegal Curve Merchandise. So far, the top 8 are very tight. Andrewm has had a roller-coaster month and sits in second place. A recent 0-3 night has Casperitis returning to the rest of the pack. MN Habs Fan has been consistently picking winners, as has IC favorite Bob Roberts. Bob picks almost exclusively favorites, so losing games for him is often more sotly than it is for other people. Charvik has been slowly moving up the standings, Zorkon has burst onto the scene with a 6-1 record and +5.37 units, and Mikos has come back down after a blazing start.

Good luck everyone, and remember that we reset the standings every month.

Best Conference Odds

Now on to why people actually read the articles. Here are the best odds on each team to win the Conference:

The sites I am using are: Bet365, Betfred, CaribSports, The Greek , Gamebookers, Intertops Sportsbook, Ladbrokes, and Stan James

Eastern Conference
Team Odds (+)SiteImplied %
Montreal Canadiens405The Greek 19.802
Pittsburgh Penguins525The Greek 16.000
New York Rangers650Stan James13.333
Washington Capitals825The Greek 10.811
New Jersey Devils1015The Greek 8.969
Ottawa Senators1400Stan James6.667
Philadelphia Flyers1415The Greek 6.601
Buffalo Sabres1600Betfred,Intertops Sportsbook5.882
Carolina Hurricanes1800Stan James, Ladbrokes5.263
Boston Bruins2000CaribSports4.762
Tampa Bay Lightning2500CaribSports3.846
Florida Panthers3300Betfred, Ladbrokes, Bet3652.941
Toronto Maple Leafs6600Stan James, Gamebookers1.493
New York Islanders10000Bet3650.990
Atlanta Thrashers10000Stan James, Gamebookers0.990
Total %108.350
Western Conference
Team Odds SiteImplied %
Detroit Red Wings205The Greek 32.787
San Jose Sharks365The Greek 21.505
Anaheim Ducks1200Bet3657.692
Dallas Stars1200CaribSports, Bet3657.692
Minnesota Wild1200Intertops Sportsbook, Bet3657.692
Edmonton Oilers1400Stan James6.667
Calgary Flames1415The Greek 6.601
Chicago Blackhawks1800Stan James5.263
Vancouver Canucks2050The Greek 4.651
Colorado Avalanche2500Bet3653.846
Phoenix Coyotes3050The Greek 3.175
Nashville Predators3600Stan James2.703
St. Louis Blues4000Gamebookers, Stan James2.439
Columbus Blue Jackets5000CaribSports1.961
Los Angeles Kings12500Gamebookers, Bet3650.794
Total %115.468

Sportsbooks mentioned in this article:

Channel

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$20 free bet at Intertops

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Stan James

If there is a topic you would like me to discuss, feel free to e-mail me @ ari@illegalcurve.com or post it in the comments section.

What a wild and wacky Friday.

Jets beat Stars 5-4 in OT
Moose lose 3-0 to Griffins
Ice beat Blades 6-3

And we start all over again tomorrow. IC Hockey Show at 9 AM.

Lots of Jets content to come on https://illegalcurve.com/

If you couldn't join us live on the Illegal Curve Post-Game Show fear not as you can download the podcast or watch the replay.

https://illegalcurve.com/game-19-jets-5-stars-4-in-ot-post-game-recap/

Last up from American Airlines Arena was Jets bench boss Rick Bowness who spoke about his new team's OT victory over his old team.

https://illegalcurve.com/game-19-jets-5-stars-4-in-ot-post-game-recap/

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