I hope you are enjoying the handicapping contest. So far, Mikos is in first place up 5.31 units with a 7-1 record. In last place is Pinner: he is 1-4 and down 4.04 units.
A BADGE OF HONOUR
So I went to make a wager on Buffalo to win the Conference a few days ago at one of the sportsbooks I frequent, and to my surprise the maximum payout that book offered me was $500. In the past they had capped my maximum payout at $2500. Suspicious, I contacted live support. Rick from live support informed me that if I wanted to place a wager with a payout larger than $500 I would have to phone in for approval. Rick explained that my account was restricted because I had been won a certain amount of money over a specific time period.
At first I was upset, because this is one of my favourite sportsbooks, and this restriction severely limits my ability to take advantage of what I consider favourable lines. As I thought about my situation, however, my anger subsided and was replaced with an different feeling: pride. I had won enough money, enough times, so that the people in charge took notice and restricted my account. I am not angry at being limited, I am proud. I consider it a badge of honour.
But enough about me and my exciting life – let’s talk hockey betting.
NHL DIVISION BETTING
One surprise in the hockey betting world is that many sportsbooks continue to post division odds even though the season has started. Last year, only Stan James kept their division odds up. This year, Stan James, Ladbrokes, Bet365, Gamebookers, and Intertops Sportsbookhave division odds posted.
Since I don’t know how long these odds will be up for, there is no time like the present to go through and analyze the odds. If you are feeling nostalgic, here are the links to last year’s division betting articles (1, 2, 3), where I recommended taking Washington at 12/1 to win the division. I also wondered if the Kings would sneak into the playoffs.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
ATLANTIC DIVISION
Well, this division is a big mess. Pittsburgh is still the favourite to win the division, but they have question marks on defence and are off to an average start. The Rangers are the noisiest team in the league right now, going 5-0-0 before losing their first game to the Sabres last night. Philadelphia is winless in three and the Devils are off to another above average season.
I would avoid Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and the (hapless) Islanders. The Rangers look strong at +275 but my favourite play in this division is New Jersey at +350 – they always seem to be in contention for the division title.
NORTHEAST DIVISION
Montreal is the favourite to win the Conference, so it’s no surprise they are the favourites to win the division. Although I dislike laying chalk (betting a favourite at a price less than +100) on a futures bet, -141 on the Habs isn’t so bad. The Senators have (as usual) goaltending issues. The Bruins may, but probably won’t contend for the title, and +500 is not enough to take a shot. If you listened to last Sunday’s podcast (about NHL betting), you will know that Rich and I really like Buffalo at +800. They are undefeated, including wins over the Habs and Rangers. I know it is early, but they shouldn’t have been +800 to START the season.
SOUTHEAST DIVISION
This division is awful but someone has to win it. Washington is the clear favourite but Jose Theodore is not the answer in net. Carolina will struggle this year and Tampa Bay is giving up way too many shots – neither team has value at +300. Florida has a new coach and a young exciting team. I don’t think they will win the division, but at +650 why not take a shot?
WESTERN CONFERENCE
CENTRAL DIVISION
Looking back on last year, it’s hard to believe that the Wings were available at -163 to win the division. This year, Detroit has an even better team than last year, and oddsmakers aren’t taking any chances, as the best price available on Detroit is -667. The Wings will probably have the division wrapped up by Christmas, but in hockey anything can happen. Rather than betting on a team at -667 and having your money do nothing for 6 months, just buy a stable investment – like a mutual fund. Hmm..on second thought, the Red Wings to win the Central may be the most stable investment out there.
NORTHWEST DIVISION
Like the Atlantic, this division is a big mess. Calgary is giving up 5 goals a game and the Canucks have looked better then predicted. Edmonton and Minnesota are undefeated but the Wild have looked the better of the two teams. Colorado has problems in net and does not seem to be on par with the other four teams. Though it is early, of the five teams, the best value is on the Wild. None of the plays, however, are particularly strong.
PACIFIC DIVISION
In this young season, San Jose has looked like the best team in the league. Their division is difficult, but (especially) Anaheim and Dallas have not come out of the gate firing on all cylinders. The Coyotes have a chance to sneak into the playoffs but a division win is too much to ask from this young team. San Jose at +150 is the best value in this division.
OTHER NEWS AND NOTES:
– Unibet is offering prop on who will get more penalty minutes: Douglas Murray or Jarkko Ruutu.
– Gamebookers is offering a futures bet on which conference will win the Stanley Cup. Inexplicably both Conferences were -111. Which Conference do you think I bet on?
THIS WEEK’S QUESTION:
– Gamebookers had both Conferences at -111 to win the cup. What do you think the odds should be on each conference to win the cup?
