Frozen Assets – Playoffs Round 2

Frozen Assets’ Playoff Spectacular – Round 2The first round of the playoffs was exciting and unpredictable: three series’ went the distance, both defending Conference Champions lost (convincingly) and every team in the Western Conference looked vulnerable.

Combine the excitement and unpredictability of the NHL playoffs with the reality that few people actually care about (betting on) hockey, and it is easy to see how betting on hockey futures can be profitable and enjoyable.

On a personal note, two of the teams I had heavily invested in lost: Washington & Boston. I had picked up the Capitals throughout the year to win the Eastern Conference at odds ranging from 80/1 (+8000) to 33/1 (+3300). The Bruins I had mostly from the early part of the season at odds ranging from 110/1 to 85/1.

Here is a link to my round one recommendations – I have summarized them below:

1. Montreal/Boston – Montreal +400 to win the Conference.
2. Pittsburgh/Ottawa – Pittsburgh +300 to win the Conference.
3. Washington/Philadelphia – I identified and recommended an arbitrage opportunity.
4. New York/New Jersey – Rangers -110 to win the series.
5. Detroit/Nashville – Detroit +350 to win the Conference.
6. San Jose/Calgary – San Jose +400 to win the Conference.
7. Minnesota/Colorado – Pass.
8. Anaheim/Dallas – Take Dallas at +200.

I’m not going to do second round previews, as our competent staff at Illegal Curve have done an excellent, well-researched job already.

For the second round of the playoffs I will be exploring the relationship between series odds, Conference odds, and Stanley Cup odds. The price on a team to win the Conference is the odds on them to win the current series multiplied by them to win the next series. The price on a team to win the Stanley Cup is the odds on them to win the Conference multiplied by the odds on that team to win the Stanley Cup final. I have compiled the best odds on each team to win the series, Conference, and Stanley Cup.

Eastern Conference: 

Team…………………..Series….Conference………….Stanley Cup…………Finals*……..Champs* 

(1) Montreal……..-186 (Pin)…….+200 (Uni)……+650 (Fred)………….-105…………….+150(6) Philadelphia..+180 (365)…..

+1000 (Jet)……+2000 (Boy)………..+293……………+100(2) Pittsburgh…..

-133 (Mat)……+175 (ED)……..+475 (ED)…………….-175………………+109(5) New York……

+135 (ED)…….+400 (Fred)……+880 (Fair)………..+113…………….-105 

Western Conference:(1) Detroit………..

-181 (Pin)…….+150 (ED)………+320 (Fair)………….-164……………-147(6) Colorado……..

+200(ED)……+700 (Fair)…….+1500 (Boy)…………+167………….+100(2) San Jose……..

-140 (Pin)…….+300 (Fred)…..+500 (365)……………+134………….-200(5) Dallas…………

+150 (ED)……..+450 (Fred)…..+1100 (Fair)………….+120…………+118

Arbitrage Opportunity
Recommended Play*Finals – Based on the posted odds what the money line would be on that team in the Conference Finals to win the Conference Finals.

*Champs – Based on the posted odds what the money line would be on that team in the Stanley Cup to win the Stanley Cup.

Agree? Disagree? Like a more detailed explanation? Feel free to post a comment or send an e-mail to illegalcurve@gmail.com. 

April 9, 2008: Frozen Assets’ Playoff Preview Spectacular – Round 1
April 3, 2008: Best Stanley Cup Futures Odds? You Can Bet On It
March 27, 2008: What’s In a Futures Bet? A Look Behind Stanley Cup Odds
March 20, 2008: All About the NHL Divisions
March 13, 2008: How Secure Are the Top 16?
March 6, 2008: Ten Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Five-Sixths of the Season.
February 14, 2008: Trade Deadline Tips and (As Always) Best Odds On Teams To Win The Cup
February 7, 2008: To Win The Conference or to Win the Cup Revisited
January 31, 2008: Does Parity in the Standings = Parity At the Sportsbooks?
January 17, 2008: Reviewing the Division Predictions
January 10, 2008: 10 Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Half of the Season
January 3, 2008: Glossary of Terms Used on Frozen Assets
December 27, 2007: Ho Ho Horrible Homestands and Road Warriors
December 14, 2007: Western Conference: Starting Odds, Current Odds, Highest Odds
December 7, 2007: Eastern Conference: Starting Odds, Current Odds, Highest Odds
November 29, 2007: How to Find the Sportsbook For You, The NHL’s best division – The Central(?)
November 22, 2007: 10 Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Quarter of the Season
November 15, 2007: Explaining the Exchange(2), Random Thoughts on the Futures
November 9, 2007: Exaplaining the Exchange(1), This Weeks Best Bets
November 1, 2007: Profiling the Eastern Conference Teams
October 25, 2007: Profiling the Western Conference Teams
October 18, 2007: To Win the Conference or the Cup? Frozen Assets’ European Vacation
October, 11, 2007: Top 5 Hockey Futures Books, Stanley Cup Odds
October 4, 2007: Bad Lines, Soft Lines, and Conference Odds
September 27, 2007: Avoiding Fraudulent Sportsbooks and Preview of Division Betting
September 20, 2007: Introduction to Frozen Assets and Futures Highlights From Last Year