What’s in a Futures bet? A Look Behind Stanley Cup OddsHow do we know if a futures bet is good value? Sure, if I told you to bet on Detroit or San Jose to win the Stanley Cup at odds of +10000 you would know that was a good bet. But would you know why? What does a futures bet represent?
Betting on a team to win the Stanley Cup requires five events to occur:
1) The team must make the playoffs.
2) The team must win the conference quarter-finals.
3) The team must win the conference semi-finals.
4) The team must win the conference finals.
5) The team must win the Stanley Cup.
A futures bet on a team to win the Stanley Cup represents the probability of those five events occurring. That probability is calculated by multiplying the likelihood of each event occurring.
Now that there are five games left in the regular season, we know that all teams are not equal. Some teams have made the playoffs, some teams are eliminated, and most teams fall somewhere in between.
Based on the best odds on each team to win the Stanley Cup and the probability that they will make the playoffs (caveat: strictly my opinion), it is possible to calculate the average odds on each team to advance for each round of the Stanley Cup.
(Before games of March 27 – except Boston/Toronto)
Team……………Best Odds……..Site……………..Prob. of Playoffs…….Price/Round
Detroit…………..+400…………Betfair………………….1.0……………………….-200
San Jose…………+840…………Betfair………………….1.0……………………….-133
Montreal………..+1150………..Betfair………………….1.0……………………….-114
Anaheim…………+800………..Matchboook…………..1.0……………………….-137
Pittsburgh………+1000………Matchboook…………….1.0……………………….-122
New Jersey……..+1400………Bet365…………………..0.97…………………….-105
Ottawa…………….+1400………Bet365…………………0.95…………………….-106
Minnesota……….+3300……..BetFred………………….0.90…………………….+135
Calgary…………….+2600……..Betfair………………….0.90…………………….+122
Dallas………………+2200……..Gamebookers…………0.90……………………..+113
New York (R)…..+1800……..5Dimes………………….0.90……………………..+103
Philadelphia……..+5000…….Carib………………………0.83……………………..+154
Colorado…………..+3233…….WSEX…………………..0.78……………………..+126
Boston ……………..+6000…….Carib…………………….0.73…………………….+158
Vancouver…………+3000……Carib……………………..0.65……………………..+112
Nashville…………..+10000….BetFred………………….0.60………………………+174
Washington……….+6600…..BetFred…………………..0.37……………………..+123
Edmonton………….+22500…5Dimes…………………..0.14……………………..+137
Buffalo……………….+10000…BetFred………………..0.22…………………….+117
Florida………………+30000…StanJames……………….0.09……………………+128
Phoenix……………..+80000…StanJames………………0.05……………………+152
Chicago………………+80000…StanJames……………..0.06……………………+163
Columbus…………..+99999…Carib…………………….0.02……………………+111
Questions, Comments, think I’m way off here? Leave a comment or send an e-mail to illegalcurve@gmail.com
For illegal curve, I’m Ari Baum-Cohen
March 20, 2008: All About the NHL Divisions
March 13, 2008: How Secure Are the Top 16?
March 6, 2008: Ten Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Five-Sixths of the Season.
February 14, 2008: Trade Deadline Tips and (As Always) Best Odds On Teams To Win The Cup
February 7, 2008: To Win The Conference or to Win the Cup Revisited
January 31, 2008: Does Parity in the Standings = Parity At the Sportsbooks?
January 17, 2008: Reviewing the Division Predictions
January 10, 2008: 10 Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Half of the Season
January 3, 2008: Glossary of Terms Used on Frozen Assets
December 27, 2007: Ho Ho Horrible Homestands and Road Warriors
December 14, 2007: Western Conference: Starting Odds, Current Odds, Highest Odds
December 7, 2007: Eastern Conference: Starting Odds, Current Odds, Highest Odds
November 29, 2007: How to Find the Sportsbook For You, The NHL’s best division – The Central(?)
November 22, 2007: 10 Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Quarter of the Season
November 15, 2007: Explaining the Exchange(2), Random Thoughts on the Futures
November 9, 2007: Exaplaining the Exchange(1), This Weeks Best Bets
November 1, 2007: Profiling the Eastern Conference Teams
October 25, 2007: Profiling the Western Conference Teams
October 18, 2007: To Win the Conference or the Cup? Frozen Assets’ European Vacation
October, 11, 2007: Top 5 Hockey Futures Books, Stanley Cup Odds
October 4, 2007: Bad Lines, Soft Lines, and Conference Odds
September 27, 2007: Avoiding Fraudulent Sportsbooks and Preview of Division Betting
September 20, 2007: Introduction to Frozen Assets and Futures Highlights From Last Year
