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Frozen Assets: “The Contest”, Brodeur’s Injury, Division Betting

pointing puckHandicapping Contest Update

We have had a few rough nights as a group.  The Rangers loss the the Isles and TB losing to NJ last night accounted for most of the damage.  Peter39caca is in the lead after a 3-0 night on November 1st.  Collectively we are down about 15 units.  Remember, first prize is a $50 credit (CDN) at one of our recommended Sportsbooks.

The Brodeur Effect

The obvious effect of losing Brodeur is that the Devils have a decreased chance of winning the division, making the playoffs, annd winning the Stanley Cup.  Duh.

The first action I took when I read that Brodeur was out was to pop over to Betfair to see if I could “sell” (bet on New Jersey to lose the Stanley Cup) at the same price that was available before the injury went public (1 to 30).  No luck there, as someone had done that already.  The current odds are not that different as you can now bet against New Jersey at odds of 1 to 40.

Feeling like a failure, I left Betfair and checked out some division odds.  Division odds should be the most affected by Brodeur’s absence.  Fortunately for me they had not changed.  At the time they were available at Bet Direct, Ladbrokes, and Intertops Sportsbook.  Though I could not bet against New Jersey to win the division, I could bet on the other teams to win the division, as they now had increased chances to win.  I decided on the New York Rangers and the Philadelphia Flyers.  These odds are still available at Bet Direct and Intertops SportsbookLadbrokes has taken their division odds down.

 

Division Odds

Division odds will not be around for long, so grab them while you can. 

In the Pacific, perhaps a good idea is to take both the Sharks (-125 at Intertops Sportsbook) and the Ducks (+230 at Bet Direct).  It’s going to take a miracle for anyone else to win that division.

The Northwest is a big mess (as usual) and nothing of value is available.

In the Central Detroit is available at -1000 at Intertops Sportsbook.  Chicago has been playing better since they fired Denis Savard, but at +700 at Intertops Sportsbook they are not long enough to make beting on them a solid play.

In the East, the Southeast Division is interesting, as Carolina is off to a good start.  If they can create space in the near future there may be some value on them at +200 at Bet Direct and Intertops Sportsbook but I don’t see it happening before the odds change.

The Northeast division is one of my favorite divisions.  All of the teams are at least at .500.  I strongly recommended betting on the Sabres earlier, but at +360 at Bet Direct I’m not sure how much value is left.  The Habs have looked unstoppable and are -154 at Bet Direct.

Finally, the Atlantic should become a three-team race between New York (+210 Intertops Sportsbook), Philadelphia (+300 Intertops Sportsbook), and Pittsburgh (+220 Intertops Sportsbook).  This leaves about an 11.5% chance that New Jersey or The Islanders will win the division.

Other Thoughts

Gamebookers‘ no lose game of the week is Nashville vs. Calgary.  All $20 losing bets on the contest will be refunded.

– The Sharks look like the best team in the league so far.  +800 at Centrebetimpressions seems like good value to me.

– After a slow start Conference odds on my longshot darkhorse Columbus Blue Jackets have ballooned to +10000 at Gamebookers.  Hey, in sports anything can happen.

– Keep an eye on the Blackhawks.  After a slow start they are three points behind the Red Wings.  +3300 at Betfred may wind up being good value.

Comments?  Post them or send them to ari@illegalcurve.com

Books mentioned in this post:

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