The Moustache Needs a Beard
Sorry this isn’t about Amanda Beard posing nude in Playboy.
If you read last week’s Frozen Assets you would know that my account has been restricted at one of my favorite sportsbooks. My maximum payout on any bet there is now $500. To my dismay, due to the recent success of a certain longshot team, (some thanks must be given to Jacob at VegasWatch for tipping me off about that team) I find myself being restricted at a few of my other favorite sportsbooks. What to do?
This is new territory for me. I have always been able to go about my business uninterrupted, but these restrictions pose a major obstacle to my enjoyment of my favorite hobby. My options are to: a) do nothing, b) open another account under a pseudonym, c) find a beard.
A “beard” is a person who opens an account at a sportsbook and makes bets on behalf of another player. Usually it is because the original player has had their account restricted or they are trying the circumvent the house maximum. For obvious reasons, sportsbooks do not approve of this behavior.
If It Smells Like Trout…
One aspect of the handicapping contest I am really enjoying is seeing a group consensus within games. If you ask the casual sports bettor, they will often say that a game is “obvious” or “easy”. For example: “of course the Colorado/Los Angeles game was going to go over, both goaltenders are terrible.”
I can’t help but chuckle to myself when I hear this fall out of people’s mouths because it is in clear contravention of the #1 maxim of sportsbetting: the people setting the odds know more than we do.
Some games seem too easy – the lines seem to be so far off that you don’t understand what the people setting the odds were thinking. I concede this process is somewhat subjective, but two lines from the first month jump out of the water (sorry) as an example of fishy odds.
Fishy Line #1
October 16: Dallas @ St. Louis, St. Louis -108
At the time it was difficult to understand how St. Louis could be favored: Dallas was projected to contend for the West, while St. Louis was projected to contend for John Tavares. Turco was playing and there were no significant injuries.
What happened? St. Louis dominated the game and won 6-1.
Fishy Line #2
San Jose @ Anaheim, San Jose -113. This line opened at San Jose -113 and ended at a pick ’em – even fishier.
San Jose was 4-0-0 at the time and looked like the best team in the league. Anaheim was 0-4-0 and looked like a team in disarray.
What happened? Anahiem got a strong performance from Giguere en-route to a 4-0 victory.
I am aware these two stories are anecdotal evidence, and I have not yet found a way to measure “fishy” lines, but next time you are thinking that a game is “easy”, remember the first maxim of betting on sports: the people setting the odds know more than you.
Handicapper or Handicapped
I am pleased to report that through the first few weeks of the Handicapping Challenge we are up 26.68 units as a group. I am the first to admit that my results are due to luck. How about you?
First prize in the contest is a $50 credit at one of Illegal Curve’s Recommended Sportsbooks, and 2nd, 3rd, and 4th will receive Illegal Curve Merchandise. So far, the top 8 are very tight. Andrewm has had a roller-coaster month and sits in second place. A recent 0-3 night has Casperitis returning to the rest of the pack. MN Habs Fan has been consistently picking winners, as has IC favorite Bob Roberts. Bob picks almost exclusively favorites, so losing games for him is often more sotly than it is for other people. Charvik has been slowly moving up the standings, Zorkon has burst onto the scene with a 6-1 record and +5.37 units, and Mikos has come back down after a blazing start.
Good luck everyone, and remember that we reset the standings every month.
Best Conference Odds
Now on to why people actually read the articles. Here are the best odds on each team to win the Conference:
The sites I am using are: Bet365, Betfred, CaribSports, The Greek , Gamebookers, Intertops Sportsbook, Ladbrokes, and Stan James
| Eastern Conference | |||
| Team | Odds (+) | Site | Implied % |
| Montreal Canadiens | 405 | The Greek | 19.802 |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 525 | The Greek | 16.000 |
| New York Rangers | 650 | Stan James | 13.333 |
| Washington Capitals | 825 | The Greek | 10.811 |
| New Jersey Devils | 1015 | The Greek | 8.969 |
| Ottawa Senators | 1400 | Stan James | 6.667 |
| Philadelphia Flyers | 1415 | The Greek | 6.601 |
| Buffalo Sabres | 1600 | Betfred,Intertops Sportsbook | 5.882 |
| Carolina Hurricanes | 1800 | Stan James, Ladbrokes | 5.263 |
| Boston Bruins | 2000 | CaribSports | 4.762 |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 2500 | CaribSports | 3.846 |
| Florida Panthers | 3300 | Betfred, Ladbrokes, Bet365 | 2.941 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 6600 | Stan James, Gamebookers | 1.493 |
| New York Islanders | 10000 | Bet365 | 0.990 |
| Atlanta Thrashers | 10000 | Stan James, Gamebookers | 0.990 |
| Total % | 108.350 | ||
| Western Conference | |||
| Team | Odds | Site | Implied % |
| Detroit Red Wings | 205 | The Greek | 32.787 |
| San Jose Sharks | 365 | The Greek | 21.505 |
| Anaheim Ducks | 1200 | Bet365 | 7.692 |
| Dallas Stars | 1200 | CaribSports, Bet365 | 7.692 |
| Minnesota Wild | 1200 | Intertops Sportsbook, Bet365 | 7.692 |
| Edmonton Oilers | 1400 | Stan James | 6.667 |
| Calgary Flames | 1415 | The Greek | 6.601 |
| Chicago Blackhawks | 1800 | Stan James | 5.263 |
| Vancouver Canucks | 2050 | The Greek | 4.651 |
| Colorado Avalanche | 2500 | Bet365 | 3.846 |
| Phoenix Coyotes | 3050 | The Greek | 3.175 |
| Nashville Predators | 3600 | Stan James | 2.703 |
| St. Louis Blues | 4000 | Gamebookers, Stan James | 2.439 |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 5000 | CaribSports | 1.961 |
| Los Angeles Kings | 12500 | Gamebookers, Bet365 | 0.794 |
| Total % | 115.468 |
Sportsbooks mentioned in this article:
Stan James
If there is a topic you would like me to discuss, feel free to e-mail me @ ari@illegalcurve.com or post it in the comments section.
