AVOIDING FRAUDULENT SPORTSBOOKS AND A PREVIEW OF NHL DIVISION BETTING
Last week, I presented my case as to why making futures wagers are an optimal style of wagering for the responsible casual sports bettor. I also went over some notable futures odds from the 2006-2007 NHL season. This week’s Frozen Assets will first offer strategies to protect yourself from fraudulent sportsbooks and then examine the odds for the NHL divisions futures market.
The motto of The Greek, one of the most well respected sportsbooks in the offshore wagering industry is “sweat the game, not the payout”. This motto was created in response to alleviate the common and reasonable fear that the money we send to degenerate strangers in foreign countries for the purpose of gambling will be returned to us along with our profits if we are fortunate enough to win. Futures bettors must play at multiple sportsbooks, and we must carefully research each one before choosing to deposit our money there.
The primary reason a person is able to successfully wager on the futures market is because of a lack of standardization in market odds. For example, sportsbook A could have Anaheim to win the Stanley Cup at odds of 7/1 while sportsbook B could have Anaheim to win the Stanley Cup at odds of 10/1. Thus wagering on futures requires “line shopping” at multiple sportsbooks. How do we know whether the sportsbook offering Anaheim at 10/1 is reputable?
Once you have found favorable odds at a sportsbook, your next step must be to research that sportsbook. This can be done easily at Sportsbook Review, a relatively independent website dedicated to helping the player avoid fraudulent sportsbooks. They have ratings of over 750 sportsbooks in their Sportsbook Review Rating Guide. They also offer other useful features including a Blacklist and a Recommended List. I recommend not playing with any sportsbooks having a rating of D+ or lower.
If a Sportsbook is not rated by Sportsbook Review, visit their Scam Alert section or their New Player’s Guide for tips on how to identify a fraudulent sportsbook. Remember, it doesn’t matter how much money you win until the cheque from the sportsbook is in your hand. Hopefully this is a lesson you do not have to learn the hard way.
The worst part about getting burned by a fraudulent sportsbook is that you don’t find out you are being scammed until after you win. It is only after you hit your long-shot and have thousands of dollars in your account that you realize the sportsbook you are playing at has no intention of paying you. By researching the sportsbook before sending them money, you are minimizing the risk to your bankroll and potentially saving yourself a Zdeno Chara sized headache.
Now that I’ve lectured you on the importance of being a responsible bettor that always researches the sportsbooks you play at before giving them money, let’s take a look at the NHL divisions market and see who is offering the best odds on each team to win their respective divisions…
In the world of online wagering, hockey is not a sport that is heavily wagered on. Unlike baseball, basketball, and football, division betting (in previous years) on hockey ends when the season starts. Also, division betting on hockey is only offered at a handful of books. The books I was able to find offering NHL division betting are: 5Dimes, Betsafe, Betsson, Gamebookers, Skybet, Stan James and Unibet.
Remember, we are not betting on who we think is going to win the division, we are looking for value. Let’s start with the Western Conference…
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Central Division
…………………….Average Odds ….. Best Odds….. Site……………………. Site Rating
Detroit …………… -230 ………………….-163 ………..Skybet ………………………B+
Nashville ……….. +337………………… +600 ……… Betsafe ………………….. (NR)
St. Louis ………….+1043………………. +1200…….. Skybet……………………… B+
Columbus ……… +2063 ……………… +2500…….. Skybet……………………… B+
Chicago …………. +2113………………… +2800…… .Skybet……………………… B+
Play: Detroit -163
For the last two years, Detroit and Nashville have beat up on St. Louis, Columbus, and Chicago. This year it looks like Detroit will beat up on Nashville, St. Louis, Columbus, and Chicago. Nashville is a tempting play at +600, and although I hate laying chalk (taking a favorite at odds of less than even money) on a futures bet, Detroit is the clear favorite to win the division and could run away with the Division early. This two unit investment could pay out by December.
Northwest Division
…………………….Average Odds…..Best Odds…..Site……………………. Site Rating
Colorado ………. +251……………….. +275 ………..Stan James………………..B
Vancouver……… +259………………. +320 ………..Betsafe…………………… (NR)
Calgary………….. +261 ……………… +285………….Betsson ……………………. B-
Minnesota ………+341………………. +420 ………..Betsafe …………………….(NR)
Edmonton …….. +1383……………. +2200………..Skybet………………………. B+
Play: Pass
The Northwest division is a toss up between Colorado, Calgary, Vancouver, and probably Minnesota. Looking at the available odds, nothing jumps out as having value. If you put a pair of Thermablades to my throat and asked me to pick a team, I would take the Canucks at +320, but I wouldn’t put any of my hard earned student loan money on it.
Pacific Division
…………………….Average Odds….. Best Odds….. Site……………………. Site Rating
Anaheim ………..+111 ………………..+125 …………..Skybet ……………….. B+
San Jose ………..+159…………………+200…………..Gamebookers…….. B-
Dallas ……………+469 ……………… +600…………..Betsson ……………….B-
Los Angeles …..+1450…………….. +2000…………Stan James…………. B
Phoenix …………+2625………………+3300…………Gamebookers………B-
Play: San Jose +200
With Scott Niedermayer’s return to Anaheim uncertain and San Jose having basically the same team as last year (minus Bill Guerin but with a young, improving defense), I see no reason why they cannot match the Ducks stride for stride. At +200, there is just enough value to make it a one unit play. Also, though I wouldn’t take them to win the division, does anyone else get the sense the Los Angeles Kings will sneak into the playoffs this year?
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Atlantic Division
…………………….Average Odds…..Best Odds…..Site…………………….Site Rating
Pittsburgh………..+197 ………………+220…………Betsafe…………………..(NR)
NY Rangers………+203………………+225…………Gamebookers………….B-
New Jersey………+400………………+500…………Betsafe…………………..(NR)
Philadelphia…….+413……………….+450………….Skybet……………………..B+
New York (I)……+1225……………..+1500………..Unibet……………………(NR)
Play: Pass
Like the Northwest Division, the Atlantic Division is also too close to call. Comparing the average odds of each team to win with the highest odds of each team to win, there is no value in the Atlantic Division. This is an easy pass.
Northeast Division
…………………….Average Odds ….. Best Odds….. Site……………………. Site Rating
Ottawa……………-132………………….+100…………..Skybet………………….B+
Buffalo……………+257…………………+385…………..Betsson…………………B-
Toronto………….+819…………………+1200…………Stan James…………..B
Montreal………..+1016……………….+1400…………Skybet…………………..B+
Boston……………+1775………………..+2000………..Skybet………………….B+
Play: Buffalo +385
Buffalo is strictly a value play. After losing Briere and Drury to free agency, Buffalo’s stock has taken a major drop. However, Buffalo’s team depth and Ryan Miller’s strong play will keep this team near the top of the conference. I don’t think Buffalo will finish ahead of Ottawa in the standings, but I still like them for 1.5 units at +385.
Southeast Division
…………………….Average Odds…..Best Odds…..Site…………………….Site Rating
Tampa Bay……….+248……………….+350………..Betsafe……………………(NR)
Carolina…………..+263………………..+300……….Gamebookers……………B-
Atlanta…………….+274………………..+350………..Stan James………………..B
Florida…………….+425………………..+600……….Betsson………………………B-
Washington……..+903……………….+1400………Skybet………………………..B+
Play: Washington +1400, anyone besides Carolina
The Southeast is my favorite division from a wagering perspective. All five teams have a legitimate chance to win. Tampa Bay has major weaknesses and will be in trouble without Dan Boyle to start the season. I still would almost take a chance on them for one unit at +350. Carolina will contend but there is not enough value on them at +300. Atlanta might have the best chance to win the division at +350, but I am reluctant to play them because of the way they tanked in the second half of the season before being meekly eliminated by the Rangers in the opening round of last year’s playoffs. I like Florida to be a surprise team this year, and will probably find value on them at some point in the season. Taking them at +600 could, in hindsight, have been the largest division long-shot to win a division. Washington was competitive for the first half of last season, and is comprised of an improving young team. The acquisition of Michael Nylander will likely increase Alexander Ovechkin’s production. Washington is strictly a value play, as I don’t think they will win, but I expect all five teams to compete for the division. At odds of +1400 it can’t hurt to take a shot at 1.5 units.
Those are my thoughts on each of the divisions; we will be sure to re-visit these predictions during and after the regular season. Remember, in the past division betting has not been possible once the regular season starts so get your bets in soon. If you have any thoughts, questions, or would like to share your predictions, feel free to share them in the “comments” section and I promise I will do my best to respond.
Remember: research your sportsbooks as well as your odds, because money in an offshore gaming account is like having a valuable piece of art: it is only worth what someone is willing to pay you for it.
For illegal curve, I’m Ari Baum-Cohen.
About the writer: Ari Baum-Cohen’s first sports betting victory came in 1989 when he won his father’s office pool at age 8. Since then, he has been interested in many different types of sports betting. His first major futures win came in November of the 2001-2002 hockey season when he selected “field” (field included Jarome Iginla) at odds of 30/1 to win the National Hockey League goal scoring title.
