Who will the Jets protect in the Expansion Draft?

It has been roughly eight months since Dave Minuk first looked at who the Jets might protect in the upcoming NHL Expansion Draft, but now that the Las Vegas franchise is set to announce its new team name and logo tonight, I thought it would be a good time to re-visit who the Jets may protect come June 2017.

Here are a few things to keep in mind about the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft:

a) The Jets must expose one defenceman and two forwards that are under contract for next season and will have played a minimum of 40 games this year or 70 over the past two seasons

b) The Jets can only lose a maximum of one player.

c) First and second-year pros are automatically exempt (Nikolaj Ehlers, Patrik Laine, Kyle Connor, Josh Morrissey, Nic Petan, Brandon Tanev, Jack Roslovic, Brendan Lemieux)

d) All players who have currently effective and continuing “No Movement” clauses at the time of the Expansion Draft (and who to decline to waive such clauses) must be protected (and will be counted toward their club’s applicable protection limits). (Tobias Enstrom, Dustin Byfuglien)

e) The Jets will have two options for players they wish to protect in the Expansion Draft:

In Option 1, The Jets can protect a total of 11 players — seven forwards, three defencemen and one goalie.

In Option 2, the Jets can protect nine players — eight skaters and one goalie.

Below is who I think the Jets will protect for the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft (keeping in mind a lot can change between now and June 2017)….

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Option 1 (11 players- seven forwards, three defencemen and one goalie)

Forwards: Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele, Bryan Little, Matthieu Perreault, Adam Lowry, Joel Armia, Marko Dano

Defencemen: Dustin Byfuglien (no movement clause), Tobias Enstrom (no movement clause), Jacob Trouba

Goalie: Connor Hellebuyck

Exposed: Drew Stafford (contract expires at end of 2016’17 season), Shawn Matthias (one year remaining on contract after 2016’17 season at $2.125 million AAV), Andrew Copp (RFA after 2016’17 season), Tyler Myers (two years remaining on contract after 2016’17 season at $5.5 million AAV), Ben Chiarot (RFA after 2016’17 season), Paul Postma (UFA after 2016’17 season), Alexander Burmistrov (RFA after 2016’17 season), Mark Stuart (one year remaining on contract after 2016’17 season at $2.625 million AAV), Brian Strait (UFA after 2016’17 season), Chris Thorburn (UFA after 2016’17 season), Michael Hutchinson (one year remaining on contract after 2016’17 at $1.125 million AAV), Ondrej Pavelec (UFA after the 2016’17 season)

Rationale: Firstly, I don’t think anyone is going to disagree with me having Wheeler, Scheifele, Little, Byfuglien, Enstrom and Hellebuyck under both options. It’s after these six players where it gets interesting. Let’s start with the forwards. I have Mathieu Perreault as one of the protected forwards because he is under contract for four more years after this season at a reasonable cap hit of $4.125 million. Sure, you could argue that Perreault is injury prone but he is a versatile playmaker who committed long term to Winnipeg. Plus he’s a leader on this team. The Jets won’t expose him under Option 1. Next up is 23 year old forward Adam Lowry. Now in his 4th season with the Jets, I have him on my protected list because of his reasonable cap hit (1 year left after this year at $1.125 million) and because he factors in to the future of the Jets young core. Furthermore, Lowry is off to good start this season with 5 goals in 21 games which puts him on pace to set career highs. Joel Armia, 23, is on my protected list because he has a reasonable cap hit next season ($925,000/year) and was playing well before he went down with an injury. Armia was acquired from Buffalo in the Evander Kane trade back in 2015 and is someone who I believe factors in to the Jets future. Finally, the seventh forward I have on my list is Marko Dano who the Jets acquired last season in the Andrew Ladd trade. Even though Dano started the season in the American Hockey League, he has played well since being called up by the Jets (6 points in 11 games). Dano is making $925,000 and is an RFA after this season so the Jets would need to sign him after this season. Now on to the defencemen. We already mentioned that Byfuglien and Enstrom are locks to be protected because of their no movement clauses and Josh Morrissey is exempt so that means under Option 1 the Jets can only protect one more defenceman. I should note here that if Tobias Enstrom didn’t have a no movement clause, I would not have protected him here and would have both Jacob Trouba and Tyler Myers protected over him.  I have Jacob Trouba protected under Option 1 because of his age (22 versus Myers who is 26) his term (one year remaining after this season at $2.812 million AAV versus Myers who has two years remaining on his contract after this season at $5.5 million AAV) and because simply put, I think Trouba has a higher upside than Myers. Yes, I realize you could argue that Myers is a steadier defenceman at this point in his career but the fact is the Jets simply cannot afford to lose Trouba for nothing in the expansion draft. I should mention here that I am a big Myers fan and it is undeniable that since coming over from Buffalo two years ago, Myers has been very good and has played some big minutes for this team but if it is between losing Trouba for nothing or losing Myers for nothing I am taking Trouba. And here’s where it could get interesting. If Enstrom was willing to waive his no movement clause, Myers could be protected under Option 1 but we don’t know if Enstrom would be willing to waive his no movement clause or if the Jets are interested in asking him to waive his no movement clause. Where it gets even more interesting is the possibility of the Jets trading Trouba to another team before next June, which is not out of the question. If Trouba is traded, you may say well that makes it an easier decision for Jets General Manager Kevin Cheveldayoff. Well not necessarily and here is why. If Trouba is traded to another team, there is a good chance a defenceman is coming back the other way and that defenceman may have more than two years of professional experience which means they would still have to be protected too.  Simply put, under Option 1, the Jets may have to expose Myers because losing Trouba for nothing is not an option in my opinion.

Option 2 (9 players- eight skaters, one goalie)

Forwards: Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele, Bryan Little, Adam Lowry

Defencemen: Dustin Byfuglien, Tyler Myers, Jacob Trouba, Toby Enstrom

Goalie: Connor Hellebuyck

Exposed: Drew Stafford (contract expires at end of 2016’17 season), Shawn Matthias (one year remaining on contract after 2016’17 season at $2.125 million AAV), Matthieu Perreault ( four years remaining on his contract after 2016’17 season at $4.125 AAV), Joel Armia (one year remaining on his contract after 2016’17 season at $925,000 AAV), Mark Dano (RFA after 2016’17 season), Ben Chiarot (RFA after 2016’17 season), Paul Postma (UFA after 2016’17 season), Alexander Burmistrov (RFA after 2016’17 season), Mark Stuart (one year remaining on contract after 2016’17 season at $2.625 million AAV), Brian Strait (UFA after 2016’17 season), Chris Thorburn (UFA after 2016’17 season), Michael Hutchinson (one year remaining on contract after 2016’17 at $1.125 million AAV), Ondrej Pavelec (UFA after the 2016’17 season)

Rationale: Under Option 2, the Jets would only be able to protect eight skaters and one goalie which would be done seemingly to protect one extra defenceman. Therefore, it is quite obvious the Jets would protect  both of Tyler Myers AND Jacob Trouba under this scenario. Even though I didn’t have Myers protected under Option 1, if the Jets do decide to go the Option 2 route, Myers would be protected because he is a Top 4 defenceman for the Jets who has a good shot of being claimed by Las Vegas if he is left exposed.  Despite his request for a trade and slow start to this season, Trouba is guaranteed to be protected under Option 2 if he is not traded before the expansion draft. Obviously the big question mark here is whether or not Trouba will be traded which could impact the Jets decision to go with Option 1 or Option 2. Because the Jets would almost certainly protect four defencemen under Option 2, that means that three of the forwards who were protected under Option 1 would have to be exposed. For me, my decision on who the fourth forward should be came down to Adam Lowry versus Mathieu Perreault. Even though I am a big fan of Perreault’s game, I picked Lowry over Perreault mainly because of his age (Lowry is 23, Perreault is 28), his salary cap hit ($1.125 million) and his versatility (Lowry can play wing and center, power play, penalty kill). It hasn’t helped that Perreault is currently injured and has been injured every year since coming to Winnipeg. Marko Dano and Joel Armia don’t get protected under Option 2 for me because they both have yet to play full seasons in the NHL and haven’t proven their worth as much as Lowry.

Conclusion: The Jets may have to go with Option 2 here or risk losing a good defenceman (Trouba, Myers or defenceman acquired for Trouba). If the Jets do go with Option 2, they would most likely protect either four or five forwards, which means they could lose one of Matthieu Perreault, Marko Dano, Joel Armia or Adam Lowry. It will be interesting to see which option the Jets go with and what moves they make in the weeks and months leading up to the Expansion Draft.

What do you think? Who should the Jets protect in the Expansion Draft? Let us know in the comments section below.