When the Capitals were down 3-1, IC’s Ari Baum-Cohen explained that Washington’s chances were not in line with the meager 8.7% of teams that have been able to comeback from a 3-1 series deficit.
Here was Ari’s Methodology:
Washington’s % Chance to win the series = 1/(odds win G5 * odds win G6 * odds win G7)
OR
1/(1.54*1.83*1.51)= 23.47%.
So, instead of tracking Washington’s chances at an arbitrary number, Ari calculated the Capitals’ chances of winning each game when determining their odds of a comeback. As you can see, the team’s chances were far higher than 8.7%, as he had the Capitals at just under 25% to comeback in the series.
Well, now that the Capitals are tied 3-3 with the Rangers heading home to the Verizon Center for Game 7 tonight, Ari now has the Caps as having a 70.2% chance of making the next round.
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