How much does seed really matter?

As much as teams are battling for seeds as the season is coming to an end, conference ranking is not always an assurance of first round success.  As one of our readers (Hart) passed along to me today, the odds of the bottom seeds winning are not as low as some may believe.

Check out these numbers from the past 10 seasons:

1 vs. 8 – the 8th seeded team has won 5/20 or 25%

2 vs. 7 – the 7th seeded team has won 10/20 or 50%

3 vs. 6 – the 6th seeded team has won 9/20 or 45%

4 vs. 5 – the 5th seeded team has won 6/20 or 30%

Interesting statistics indeed.  By those odds, we should expect one of the Wings/Capitals to fall in the first round.  With Osgood and Theodore manning the nets, some people believe that is a likely scenario.  We’ll know the answer to that in about three weeks.  As for now, one thing we do know is that the odds aren’t exactly on their side.