EXPLAINING THE EXCHANGE (2) AND THOUGHTS ON THE FUTURES
Why use a betting exchange?
One important advantage of a betting exchange is that you can bet on a team to win or lose the market you are wagering on. You can bet on a team to win or lose the Stanley Cup. Betting on a team to lose a market is a valuable tool if you are trying to hedge a previous wager.
You read my October 11 edition of Frozen Assets where I identified odds on the Philadelphia Flyers to win the Stanley Cup at +8000. You then placed a $20 wager on the Flyers to win the Stanley Cup for a payout of $1,600.
Thus you are guaranteed not to lose money: if Philadelphia wins the Stanley Cup you will net $1,200. If they lose you break even. If you want to bet more than $400 on the Flyers to lose the Stanley Cup you can guarantee yourself a profit either way.
2. A Betting exchange factors in your net profit and loss for the entire market, not just the original bet.
On a betting exchange you do not have to deposit another $400 because software on the betting exchange calculates the effect of all of your wagers for the entire market.
In simple terms: it is impossible for Philadelphia AND Anaheim both to win the Stanley Cup. Thus it is impossible for you to lose both of your $400 bets. Therefore there is no need for you to bet $800 when the most you can lose is $400 (actually the most you can lose in this situation is $380 if Anaheim were to win because you would win $20 by Philadelphia losing).
Finally,
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Here are some random thoughts on NHL futures betting this week:
–Those of you that read my column last week know that I see value in the St. Louis Blues. Imagine my surprise when Carib offered St. Louis at +5000 to win the conference and +10000 to win the league. Take them to win the conference at +5000. I beg of you!
—The Anaheim Ducks continue to play .500 hockey this year. They are missing the presence of Scott Niedermayer and (to a lesser extent) Teemu Selanne. The best odds on them to win the Stanley Cup is +1400 at Canbet. I would pay close attention to the return of Scott Niedermayer and I would jump on Anaheim as soon as he announces his return. If he decides he is not returning I would bet against Anaheim to win the Stanley Cup at a betting exchange.
—The New York Rangers have been playing better hockey lately and have won two in a row on the road after starting the season 0-6-1 away from MSG. They were once available at +1850 to win the Stanley Cup. I suspect the +750 currently offered by Canbet on the Rangers to win the Eastern Conference is as good as it is going to get.
—The Atlanta Thrashers have gone 8-4-0 since Don Waddell took over as coach. They are only two points out of a playoff spot. How long will the odds of +10000 to win the Stanley Cup at Carib last for?
—The New York Islanders have the fifth best winning percentage in the league. They are still available at Canbet to win the Eastern Conference at odds of +3500.
–Suddenly the Nashville Predators are in seventh place in the West after going 7-2-1 in their last 10 games. The Predators, like the Blues, are available at +5000 to win the Western Conference at Carib.
–After the hot start of the Montreal Canadiens, odds on them to win the Stanley Cup have dropped from +6900 to +4000 at Betfair.
Next week we will enter the second quarter of the NHL season. I will be celebrating this momentous occasion in next week’s edition of Frozen Assets by counting down the 10 futures bets you should have made during the first quarter of the season.
For illegal curve, I’m Ari Baum-Cohen
About the writer: Ari Baum-Cohen’s first sports betting victory came in 1989 when he won his father’s office pool at age 8. Since then, he has been interested in many different types of sports betting. His first major futures win was at the end of the 2001-2002 hockey season when he selected “field” (field included Jarome Iginla) at odds of +3000 to win the National Hockey League goal scoring title.Latest on the injured duo.
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Good insight from number 37.