Conference Finals Preview & A Note About Bankroll Management
Welcome, Frozen Assets Fans, to the Conference Finals Preview!
Betting on sports alters your perspective on professional sports. Your favorite team is the team that will most help your bankroll, and that can change yearly, monthly, even daily. You also view the playoffs differently. For example, if you have bets on Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Detroit, or Dallas to win the Conference, then the Stanley Cup will seem anti-climactic.
For those of you with remaining futures bets, you may be asking yourself – when is a good time to hedge my bet? Hedging means betting AGAINST a team you have previously bet on in order to minimize your losses, break even or guarantee a profit.
Let me illustrate with a brief example:
In October you bet $200 on the Red Wings to win the Western Conference at odds of +500 for a profit of $1000 if Detroit wins the Conference. Now, on the eve of the Conference Finals, you decide that you “have not come this far to lose $200”. Dallas is +200 to win the Conference. By betting on Dallas, you have the option of minimizing your losses, breaking even, or guaranteeing a profit.
$ bet on Dallas to win Conference…….Profit if Detroit Wins…………Profit if Dallas wins
………………….$100…………………………………..$900………………………………..$0
………………….$250…………………………………..$750……………………………….$300
………………….$400…………………………………..$600……………………………….$600
………………….$1000…………………………………$0…………………………………..$1800
As the table above demonstrates, hedging can offer considerable flexibility in managing your bankroll. The downside to hedging is that, unless both bets were made at the same betting exchange, sportsbooks are taking a piece of both sides of your bet, when ordinarily they only take on one side.
Now let’s get down to business – what are the best odds on each team to win the series (Conference) and Stanley Cup. As a special bonus to both of my loyal readers, I will include the best odds on each team to win game 1. As a second bonus, so we can all feel stupid, the best odds on team to win the Stanley Cup available over the course of the season.
…………………Series Odds……………………….Cup Odds………………………….Champs*
Pittsburgh (1)…….-190 (BetED)…………………….+225 (Betfair)……………………..+112
*Champs – Based on the posted odds what the money line would be on that team, if they won the Conference, to win the Stanley Cup.
………………………………….Game 1 Odds……………………..Best Odds (Approx. Date)
Detroit (1)………………………..-183 (Matchbook)………………+1015 (Oct. 29) (Olympic)
Dallas (5)…………………………+182 (Betfair)……………………+4300 (Nov. 29) (Betfair
)
Pittsburgh (1)……………………-170 (BetED)…………………….+2600 (Nov. 3) (Betfair)
Philadelphia (5)………………..+169 (Matchbook)………………+8000 (Oct. 16) (Betfair)
I hope this info will help you make some $. Maybe even some $$. Any questions? Leave them in the comments section or write me at illegalcurve@gmail.com.
For illegal curve, I’m Ari Baum-Cohen
March 6, 2008: Ten Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Five-Sixths of the Season.
January 10, 2008: 10 Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Half of the Season
November 29, 2007: How to Find the Sportsbook For You, The NHL’s best division – The Central(?)
November 22, 2007: 10 Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Quarter of the Season
October 18, 2007: To Win the Conference or the Cup? Frozen Assets’ European Vacation
