Frozen Assets – Parity

Does parity in the standings lead to parity in Stanley Cup odds?In this week’s Tuesday Editorial, we questioned the value of seeding in the playoffs and concluded that the difference between the top seeds and bottom seeds is negligible. If the difference between the top and bottom seeds are negligible, the odds on each team to win the Stanley Cup should be relatively similar, especially two-thirds of the way into the season. 

Olympic…..(7)…………(5)Ladbrokes.(19)………..(17)Betfair……(20)….……(20)Stan James(23)………..(23)Stan James(24)………..(17)Betfair……(27)………..(29)Stan James(28)………..(25)Pinnacle..(29)………..(25)Olympic….(3)…….…(4)Olympic….(6)………..(9)Olympic….(7)…….….(9)Pinnacle..(10)………(13)Carib…….(11)……….(15)Olympic…(13)……….(5)Olympic…(14)………..(3)Ladbrokes(15)………..(25)Betfair….(16)………..(22)Betfair.. (16)…………(21)Betfair…(24)…………(24)Pinnacle(26)………..(25)Pinnacle(30)…………(30)

About the writer: Ari Baum-Cohen’s first sports betting victory came at age 8 when he won his father’s office pool. He screamed like a 14 year-old girl at a Lil’ Bow Wow concert when Tampa Bay (had at +3500 to win Cup) and Calgary (had at +15000 to win Cup) made the Stanley Cup finals.

January 17, 2008: Reviewing the Division Predictions
January 10, 2008: 10 Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Quarter of the Season
January 3, 2008: Glossary of Terms Used on Frozen Assets
December 27, 2007: Ho Ho Horrible Homestands and Road Warriors
December 14, 2007: Western Conference: Starting Odds, Current Odds, Highest Odds
December 7, 2007: Eastern Conference: Starting Odds, Current Odds, Highest Odds
November 29, 2007: How to Find the Sportsbook For You, The NHL’s best division – The Central(?)
November 22, 2007: 10 Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Quarter of the Season
November 15, 2007: Explaining the Exchange(2), Random Thoughts on the Futures
November 9, 2007: Exaplaining the Exchange(1), This Weeks Best Bets
November 1, 2007: Profiling the Eastern Conference Teams
October 25, 2007: Profiling the Western Conference Teams
October 18, 2007: To Win the Conference or the Cup? Frozen Assets’ European Vacation
October, 11, 2007: Top 5 Hockey Futures Books, Stanley Cup Odds
October 4, 2007: Bad Lines, Soft Lines, and Conference Odds
September 27, 2007: Avoiding Fraudulent Sportsbooks and Preview of Division Betting
September 20, 2007: Introduction to Frozen Assets and Futures Highlights From Last Year

An examination of the best odds on each team to win the Stanley Cup reveals significant differences in odds between similarly situated teams. Why? Do the Rangers have enough time to turn around their season? Are the Ducks the third most likely team to win the Stanley Cup? Will the bottom fall out for the Habs and Bruins? Odds makers think so. Do you?

Here are the standings and best odds as of January 31, 2008. I have ordered the teams by conference and points-per game played. Note I will only include a price in a betting exchange if there is more than $10 available on the posted odds.

Eastern Conference

Team…………..PPG…….…Best Odds………Site….PPG Rank…Best Odds Rank

Ottawa…….…..1.33…………+600………Carib……..(2)…………(2)

Philadelphia……1.24…………+2200…….Betfair……..(3)…………(8)

Montreal………1.24………….+3300……..Ladbrokes..(3)………..(12)

New Jersey…….1.18…………+2050….…Olympic…. (7)……..….(5)

Pittsburgh………1.18…………+2050….…

Boston…………1.14…..…….+5500…..…Canbet……(11)…….…(16)

New York (I)….1.06………….+6600……..

Buffalo…………1.04…..…….+7000….….

New York (R)…1.04………….+3000……..Stan James(20)………. (11)

Carolina……….1.02…………+3343…..….Pinnacle….(22)………..(13)

Washington……1.00…………+10000….…

Atlanta…………0.98…..…….+6600………

Florida………….0.94………..+16000……..

Toronto…….0.92………….…+12500…….

Tampa Bay…0.88……………+12500……..

Western Conference

Team….…….PPG……………..Best Odds……Site….PPG Rank…Best Odds Rank

Detroit……..1.54……………..+354………..WSEX…..(1)………..(1)

San Jose….1.24………………+1415………

Minnesota…1.20………………+2550….…..

Calgary……1.18………………+2550….…..

Dallas…….1.17……………….+3345………

Colorado…1.14………………..+4000………

Vancouver..1.12………………+2050…..…..

Anaheim….1.11……………….+885….……

Phoenix…..1.10……………….+12500……..

Nashville….1.08……………….+6600…..…..5dimes….(16)…….…(17)

Columbus…1.08……………….+9000….……

St. Louis…..1.08………………+7900………..

Chicago……0.98………………+11000………

Edmonton…0.96………………+12500………

Los Angeles..0.83……………..+6000.………

Based on points per game and odds, Anaheim and Vancouver are overrated in the Western Conference, while the New York Rangers and the Hurricanes are overrated in the Eastern Conference. The best value in the Western Conference is on Phoenix, followed by Columbus and St. Louis. In the Eastern Conference Montreal is the best bet, followed by Philadelphia and Boston.

I hope you can use this information to generate a few cheap thrills, but remember my favorite expression: “You win some, you lose most.”

For illegal curve, I’m Ari Baum-Cohen