Every July 1st two significant events occur that people in Canada care about and our neighbors south of the border do not – Canada Day and the free agent frenzy in the NHL. Many quality players found new homes. Some teams improved, other teams lost key components.
Our concern is whether oddsmakers were paying attention to teams’ free agent acquisitions. Specifically, were the odds adjusted to reflect the events of July 1?
No. Not at all.
Originally this article was going to compare the odds before and after July 1, but nothing has changed. Oddsmakers have not adjusted the odds.
Why? The obvious reason is that not many people care about betting on hockey. Even less people care about betting on hockey futures, and even less people care about betting on hockey futures in early July.
Here is the early edition of the 2010 Stanley Cup odds:
| Detroit Red Wings | +500 |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | +600 |
| San Jose Sharks | +700 |
| Chicago Blackhawks | +960 |
| Boston Bruins | +980 |
| Washington Capitals | +1100 |
| Philadelphia Flyers | +1600 |
| New Jersey Devils | +1700 |
| Vancouver Canucks | +1800 |
| Calgary Flames | +2000 |
| Anaheim Mighty Ducks | +2100 |
| Carolina Hurricanes | +2800 |
| NY Rangers | +2800 |
| Montreal Canadians | +3500 |
| Dallas Stars | +3800 |
| Minnesota Wild | +3800 |
| Ottawa Senators | +4000 |
| Buffalo Sabres | +4500 |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | +4500 |
| Edmonton Oilers | +4500 |
| St. Louis Blues | +4500 |
| Florida Panthers | +5500 |
| Los Angeles Kings | +5500 |
| Nashville Predators | +5500 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | +7000 |
| Colorado Avalanche | +7500 |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | +7500 |
| Atlanta Thrashers | +9000 |
| Phoenix Coyotes | +9000 |
| NY Islanders | +12500 |
What teams greatly improved? Where is the early value?
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Good insight from number 37.