The Winnipeg Jets have an interesting off-season upcoming in terms of their pending unrestricted and restricted free agents.

Among the most important restricted free agents is Edmonton native Bryan Little.

Little has primarily played first line center for the Jets 2.0 with both Andrew Ladd and Blake Wheeler on his wings.  Little is fast, albeit undersized, with his game slanted more towards scoring goals than setting them up.

The former 1st round selection of the Atlanta Thrashers is currently completing the final season of his second professional contract; a contract that paid Little $7.15 million over three years (the 2010-11, 2011-12, and 2012-13 NHL seasons.)

The cap hit that Little carried over the just completed three year contract was $2.38 million per season.  However, it is important to note that in the final year of Little’s contract, the 2012-13 NHL season, Little’s actual salary was $3.0 million.

The old Collective Bargaining Agreement (the new CBA has yet to be officially completed and released—but all indications are that this clause will remain the same) sets forth that for the Winnipeg Jets to retain the contract rights to Bryan Little, they would have to qualify him at an annual salary of $3.0 million.  This does not mean that Little has to accept the qualifying offer (although he has that option), but if he declines the qualifying offer (which is quite likely in this instance), the Jets, by virtue of offering him the qualifying offer of $3.0 million, would retain his contractual rights.

For the purposes of this article, we will assume that the Jets will submit the qualifying offer to Little and he will not accept the offer.  As such, he will become a restricted free agent (Group 2 free agent—clause 10.2(b) of former CBA), and a number of options will present themselves to the Winnipeg Jets with regard to Bryan Little.

Option 1: Re-Sign Bryan Little

If the Jets opt to open negotiations in an attempt to re-sign Bryan Little, the organization is going to examine Little’s production and progression as an NHL player.

Here are Little’s stats since the beginning of the 2010 NHL season in Atlanta:

As of this writing, Bryan Little is 25 years old and will be 26 this upcoming November.  He has just accrued his sixth NHL season meaning that his first opportunity for unrestricted free agency would come after the 2013-14 season.

Little’s Options

At this point in his career, and for the first time, Bryan Little has some leverage in contract negotiations. Accordingly, he can steer his career, in whichever direction he deems best.

If Little believes that he will make a lot more as an unrestricted free agent in just over a year’s time, he could elect to file for salary arbitration, a right he holds under the CBA, and accept a one-year contract. In a similar vein, he can try and reach agreement on a one year contract with the Winnipeg Jets, without having to go through the frequently adversarial arbitration route.

Alternatively, Little can look to sign a three or four-year deal that will take him to his 30 year old season.  A contract in excess of four or five years seems unlikely for a player who has never eclipsed 0.73 points-per-game.

So, let us assume for the purposes of this article that Little is interested in signing a three or four year contract with the Winnipeg Jets.

Statistical Comparables

A number of players have produced similar numbers to Little.  Here are a few of those comparable players and their respective production:

1. David Desharnais;
2. Alex Steen;
3. Mike Fisher; and
4. Frans Nielsen.

All of the above players are center, at least for the most part—as Steen does play some wing as well.  Their statistical production and use is fairly similar to that of Little.

Contract Comparables

Here are the comparables and their respective salaries:

There is a bit of fluctuation with respect to the above players and their salaries, but more or less, this is a group of players that are earning second-line center money.

Option 2: Trade Bryan Little

The Jets have Mark Scheifele in the queue, but aside from Scheifele, the team is pretty thin in terms of centres.  Olli Jokinen is coming off a very poor season and Alexander Burmistrov, like Little, is a restricted free agent, with an uncertain status.  If the team looks to trade Little then they would likely have to acquire a centre, if not in return for Little, then in another trade or through a free agent signing.

Option 3: Bryan Little Receives an Offer Sheet

This is an unlikely option.  Draft picks are a valuable currency in today’s game and a team would have to overpay in terms of both salary and draft picks in order to sign Little to an offer sheet that the Jets would decline to match (as is their prerogative, having given him a qualifying offer at the outset of the free-agency period.)  It’s also worth noting that a team needs to own the proper draft picks in order to even sign a player to an offer sheet.

Conclusions

Coming up with an actual value for Bryan Little is an interesting exercise in that, given the role he has been used in by the Winnipeg Jets the past two seasons, Bryan Little’s agent will certainly argue that his client is a bona-fide first-line center in the NHL and deserves a contract, at least, in excess of $4.0 million per season.

From the Jets perspective, it is likely that Kevin Cheveldayoff’s intention is to sign Bryan Little to a contract that will allow Little to eventually slot in as the team’s number two center, and at a rate that is commensurate for a second line centre.

Little’s group will likely propose something like this: Five years for $20.25 million ($4.25 million cap hit per season)

Cheveldayoff and his management team will likely propose something like this: Three years for $10.5 million ($3.5 million cap hit per season)

Let’s assume that both parties understand that they do need each other somewhat.  The Jets, given their dearth of centers, need one that can produce offensively. From Little’s perspective, he is getting a tremendous opportunity and showcase, lining up on a top line between Andrew Ladd and Blake Wheeler—an opportunity that he may not come across elsewhere.

With all of the different factors in mind, a contract with the following terms seems most reasonable given the circumstances:

Duration: Four years

Cap Hit (AAV per season): $3.75 million

Total: $15.00 million

Little was the 2006 first round draft pick of the Atlanta Thrashers.  The 5”11, 185 pound right-handed shooting center was drafted out of the Ontario Hockey League where he suited up for the Barrie Colts.

Since beginning his NHL career in 2007-08, the Edmonton native has posted 16, 51, 34, 48 and 46 points through his first five NHL seasons.

Little is not given the same media attention as the likes of Andrew Ladd, Blake Wheeler or Evander Kane.  The former two being his linemates for the majority of last season and the latter being the lightning rod of talk radio in the City of Winnipeg.

Is he not given that attention because of his seemingly quiet demeanor or is that instead a product of his middle-of-the-road offensive statistics?

Last season Little played first line center for the Jets, which had as much to do with the team’s lack of talent up the middle as anything else (see: drafting Mark Scheifele in 2011 NHL Entry Draft in order to improve the organization’s depth up the middle).   Few will argue that Little is a first line center with the likes of Sidney Crosby, Brad Richards or Henrik Sedin.

There is a reason the Jets went out this summer and signed a bigger, more proven NHL veteran center in Olli Jokinen.  Jokinen may or may not lineup on the team’s proverbial “first line” but based on past track record, including his performance last season, opposing teams will be treating the former Calgary Flame as the Jets’ number one center.

That then begs the question:  Is Bryan Little a second line NHL center?

To answer that question, let’s look at the top two centers on every team in the NHL:

Certain players on the above list are head and shoulders above a player of Bryan Little’s talent level.  As a result, players are highlighted that are in the same realm as Little.

There are 20 highlighted players.  With 59 available top two line center spots (Little’s own spot has not been included) that means that 39 centers are superior to Bryan Little without much room for significant debate.

Clearly the top 30 NHL centers would constitute first line centers (of course, two first line centers can be on the same team).  So, we have are already almost one 1/3 of the way through the top-end second line centers.

Here is the list of the 20 highlighted players and some significant statistics that help in judging their respective values:

There are some teams that have a huge hole at center like the Calgary Flames.  Consequently, the numbers for a player like Mikael Backlund (he was injured for significant portion of last season) and Roman Cervanka (played overseas) may not represent true top two center value.  In any event, this analysis is not entirely scientific and leaves room for interpretation.

The average total point output for the last two seasons for these second line centers is 35 points.  Sounds low, but people often compare statistical output to that of what it used to be in the 80s or 90s.  Remember that few players, if any, even eclipse 100 points anymore, so the middle of the road second line center are not exactly setting the world on fire.

Of more importance is how Bryan Little’s output compares to his peers.

Little’s offensive numbers compare favourably, but there is a red herring.  Little logged more even strength ice-time per game than every other comparable listed.

Let’s take this opportunity to analyze his efficiency in terms of points, quality of competition and quality of linemates (courtesy behindthenet.ca):

Bryan Little was below average in regards to his even strength points-per-60 minutes of ice-time but above average when it came to the power play.  Maybe of more importance, he was playing tough competition on the other side, tougher than the average among his comparable peers, and was also playing with a lesser quality of teammate than his comparable peers.

We ought to mention that quality of competition and teammates were not included for power play time and Little, unlike many of the above listed counterparts, played with the top unit on the Jets’ power play for the majority of the season.

As an aside, we should note that players such as Shawn Horcoff, Brandon Sutter and Tyler Seguin, Valtteri Filppula were not included above, as they were considered to be third line centers on their respective teams for the purposes of this article (although we are aware Seguin played the majority of last season at right wing).

Overall, Little’s numbers find him in the top half of the 40-60 range of NHL centerman.  Somewhere in the 45-50 range which would classify Little as a average to below-average second line NHL center.  Even if the omitted players were taken into account, it would not still leave Little in the below-average class of second line NHL centers.

There is a reason the Jets went out this off-season and signed a big proven center like Olli Jokinen.  Only one problem: Jokinen is a below average number one NHL center and Little probably a below average number two NHL center.  Can you win the NHL that way?

If there is an NHL season, we will soon find out.

Note:  Richard said starting point was 4 years, 24 million.  TSN is reporting the contract to be 5 years worth $28.75 million.  Looks like Richard was pretty, pretty, pretty close.

Here is what Toby Enstrom had to say on his conference call which just concluded;

-  I like what we have going on in Winnipeg. Made me want to stay in Winnipeg.

- Organization is great. Want to play a big part of it.

-  Want to be a part of this team going forward. Future is bright.

-  Wanted to stay. Happy we got it done early on. Happy I’m going to be a Winnipeg Jet for a number of years to come.

-  Deal came together pretty quick. They wanted me to stay which I appreciated. Got the deal done in a short period of time.

-  I like everything about this team. Believe in everything about the team. We are going to fight for a playoff spot.

-  Everything about this organization is great. They want to win, and so do I and all my teammates.

- Just happy to have signed with the Jets, don’t want to get into the contract details just yet.

Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff said the following about the extension:

- Toby was in WPG during development camp, sat down with him & agent, and began the process then.

- Intention all along was to sign Toby. Value what he brings to the organisation. Extremely smart, advances puck out of zone well.

- Toby provides a great deal of flexibility, extremely committed to wanting to win. Devastated him to be injured this year.

- Quality person both on and off the ice

- Only thing Toby conveyed at year end meeting is his desire to win. It is what drives him.

- We see him continuing to improve. Toby is very comfortable in Wpg and with the organisation. Still room for growth in his game.

- 5 year contract extension beyond this coming season.

- Buff and Toby enjoy playing together and enjoy being on the same team. Keeps this franchise moving forward and grow this group.

- The commitment from ownership speaks volumes to the players.

- Been on our minds for quite a while. This has been very very important. Very excited that we will have a long term relationship.

Enstrom is one of the catalysts for the Jets’ back-end.  He can skate; he can move the puck and keys the team’s transition game.  He does not have the most overwhelming shot, but the puck gets to where it needs to go when it comes off of his extraordinarily long stick.  Moreover, Enstrom predominately plays the role of safety net for the popular, yet undisciplined, Dustin Byfuglien.  In fact, of Dustin Byfuglien’s even strength ice-time, over 60% of that time was spent last season with the diminutive Enstrom by his side.

Even with the past two Stanley Cup champions consisting of big tough defenses (at least for the most part) puck-moving defenseman continue to carry significant NHL value.  Take, for example, Matt Carle’s recent signing with the Tampa Bay Lightning for six years at a total of $33 million.  Another example is Jason Garrison’s recent free agent contract with the Vancouver Canucks for six years at a total of $27.6 million.  Both of these players excel at moving the puck out of their own zone and logging power play time.

While Enstrom is admittedly smaller than the above-mentioned defensemen, his offensive skills are arguably better.

Sure there are drawbacks to Enstrom’s game.  He sometimes makes questionable defensive decisions, can get muscled off pucks easily along the boards, and has trouble clearing the front of his own net—if asked to.  Having said that, he spends less time in his own zone because of his transition skills, and the team thereby benefits significantly from that.

Overall Enstrom is a top-line NHL defender and will be among the very best NHL defenders available via unrestricted free agency next season.

As of today, the best defensemen, aside from Enstrom, who will be unrestricted free agents following the 2012-13 season are (in no particular order):

1.   Alexander Edler;
2.   Kimmo Timonen;
3.   Lubomir Visnovsky;
4.   Mark Streit;
5.   Rob Scuderi;
6.   Ladislav Smid;
7.   Robyn Regehr;
8.   Ryan Whitney;
9.   Douglas Murray
10. Jordan Leopold.

(NB: for the purposes of this article, we will assume the new CBA will look similar to the current one when it comes to UFA minutia)

Considering the ages of the above players (most are veterans) and injury history of some players (such as Whitney and Streit), the only really competitor for big-time dollars on a fairly long-term would be Alexander Edler.

The Jets are in an interesting predicament.  Winnipeg has Enstrom’s services under contract for the 2012-13 next season at a reasonable salary cap hit of $3.75 million.  The Swedish rearguard is unquestionably due a raise.  The question is: Will that raise happen in Winnipeg or will he hit the jackpot elsewhere?

Decisions, Decisions, Decisions

As one can tell by looking at the goings on in Nashville, dealing with a player well ahead of their gaining unrestricted free agency status, is the best way to do business.  In Nashville, Ryan Suter, a player of superior talent to Enstrom, left the organization to head north to Minnesota.  What did the Predators receive in return? A whole lot of nothing.

That is what the Jets have to avoid.  It really is that simple.  Small market franchises (even if the Jets are top 15 in revenue) cannot lose a significant asset without receiving anything of value in return.  Ask the Ottawa Senators how losing Zdeno Chara, to a division-rival no less, worked out for them?

Closer to the organizational home, look back at what the Thrashers received in the past when dealing Marian Hossa and Ilya Kovalchuk in the midst of the last season of their respective contracts prior to the summer when they were to reach unrestricted free agent status.  Simply, the organization received a whole lot of bit parts.

The Jets have an interesting dilemma on their hands; however, there are really only two rational outcomes:

1.  Sign Tobias Enstrom to a contract (probably of at minimum three seasons); or

2.  Trade Tobias Enstrom prior to the 2012-13 season.

Keeping Enstrom and not signing him to a contract extension would be foolish.  Alternatively, keeping Enstrom into next season and deciding to trade him during the season would not necessarily be foolish, but it does carry with it some inherent risk.

On one hand, teams could realize they have a gaping hole on the back-end and have a need for a puck-moving defenseman.  That would, of course, work in the Jets favor.  On the other hand, some players may well surprise their team’s management and fill a need internally.  As well, other players could be acquired instead of a player like Enstrom.  The risks are omnipresent.

Having stated the above, one of the biggest risks the Jets face is that the team is successful.  I know, somewhat backwards thinking, but follow me here.  If the Jets are successful and consequently sitting in a playoff spot come late winter, having not yet re-signed Enstrom, what would the fans think if they dealt one of their best players for less than his perceived worth—or at least for a less effective player (we assume he won’t be traded for a defenseman of equal talent—why would another team do that?)?

Even last season, the Jets did not appear to want to deal any pending UFAs, aside from Johnny Oduya, at the trade deadline.  A player like Tanner Glass was retained by Jets management even though he was eventually not re-signed (he probably would not have netted much at the deadline, but at least more than the nothing they received this summer) because the team was still in striking distance for a playoff spot.

This season the Jets, at least on paper, are better than last season.  The possibility that the team is in the playoff chase come February or March is more likely this season than it was last season.  That will result in more difficult decisions and more fan pressure.

Dealing Enstrom prior to the start of the 2012-13 season, if contracts talks are not fruitful, allows the team to receive value in return for the talented defenseman.  If you were an opposing team, would you rather have Enstrom for three months or an entire season?  Rationally speaking, having a player on your roster for a longer duration requires a team to yield more compensation but both teams benefit.

The Jets would receive more compensation and the team receiving Enstrom would have the defenseman for an entire season—to not only make a difference on their roster but to give the organization time to become more familiar with the player—provided they decide not to sign him immediately upon trading for him.

To read the part 2 of 2, where Richard breaks down the numbers, click here.

In deciding what to do with Enstrom, we must evaluate his free agent market value in order to reach an informed decision.

As mentioned, two of the biggest winners this past free agent period were Matt Carle and Jason Garrison.  Carle received an annual cap hit of $6.0 million and Garrison took a hometown discount (he is from British Columbia) to reach an annual cap hit of $4.6 million.  Of course, Ryan Suter, the best of these UFA defensemen, was handed an annual cap hit of $7.5 million.  Suter’s former teammate, Shea Weber, soon thereafter signed an offer sheet with an annual cap hit of $7.8 million.  Using Weber and Suter as “caps,” allows our analysis to take a more pointed approach.

Clearly no executive in the National Hockey League believes Enstrom to be of greater value to a hockey team than either Weber or Suter.  While some may point to the extended term both of these players received as the reason for their reasonable cap hits, even so, executives would be foolish to pay over $7.5 million to a player of Enstrom’s quality.

With $7.5 million as the cap on Enstrom’s value for the purposes of this analysis, let’s now examine some comparable players to Enstrom.

You can bet Enstrom’s agent will look to Brian Campbell as one of his most useful comparables.  Both players are left-handed shooting puck-moving defensemen who have some drawbacks defensively.

Here are Campbell’s numbers from the past three seasons:

Campbell saw his responsibilities increase last season in Florida when he was no longer stuck behind the dominant defensive pairing of Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook in Chicago.  Campbell excelled and registered arguably the best all around season of his career.

Another interesting comparable for Enstrom is that of Brent Burns.  Burns is only a year younger than Enstrom and has been counted on to provide an offensive element to both the Wild and Sharks defensive corps.

Burns actually saw his responsibility take a step back last season.  The former OHL forward played on a Sharks team with considerably more depth than his former Wild squad and the transition to a new system on the West coast was not as easy a transition as some believed he would have (including myself)

Matt Carle provides a very recent comparable.   The former NCAA defenseman is the most recently signed of the three comparables listed and does have similarities in terms of the qualities he brings to the table—offensive skills and great skating ability.

Carle has been utilized in a fairly consistent manner over the past three seasons.  He has logged between 18:00 and 19:00 minutes at even strength, between 2:18 and 2:38 on the power play and between 1:13 and 1:55 on the penalty kill.  Chris Pronger did wonders for his career and confidence and Carle turned into a quality top-four NHL defenseman.

Now that we have broken down the statistics of the three comparables, let’s see how Enstrom stacks up against the bunch:

One could argue that Enstrom compares most favorably of the group, except for his lack of penalty killing utilization—however, one could argue that is more so a product of coaching and his possible overuse on the power play than anything else.

All four of the defensemen being analyzed are considered offensive defensemen.  Here are there respective games played over the past three seasons (a nice gauge of reliability) and points-per-game over the entire period:

Here Enstrom once again shines.  He has played the second most games of the listed players and has the highest points-per-game.  It should be noted though, that Enstorm has played more power play time that his contemporaries, but it is not as if any of them have proven to be workhorse penalty killing defenseman either.

Further context is required if we are to gauge Enstrom’s value on the open market.  Here are salaries and term of Campbell, Burns and Carle:

It has become clear that Enstrom’s representative probably will not accept anything less than $6.0 million per season.  Actually, one should probably expect Enstrom’s representatives to seek a contract that carries a cap hit in the $6.3 to $6.5 million range.  Sure it may sound high, but put in perspective to the rest of the NHL market, especially next season’s weak free agent class, and you find a demand that outweighs supply.  That generally results in an inflationary environment that benefits the players above all else.

If the Winnipeg Jets hope to retain Tobias Enstrom’s services after next season, an offer of four years and $24 million may be the starting point of negotiations.

The question fans will debate for the next 11 months is whether or not he is worth it.

***Thank you to Dobber Hockey, Cap Geek and Behind the Net for many of the above figures***

The second segment of Saturday’s Illegal Curve Hockey Show began with Jets talk.

The Illegal Curve Hockey Show on TSN Radio 1290 airs at a special time during the summer, from 9am-11am on Saturday. The following discussion has been transcribed and paraphrased from the latest episode available for download at IllegalCurve.com. Alternatively you can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes and have it automatically downloaded when it becomes available.

Host Drew Mindell (@ICDrew) began the segment:

“Where does this leave pending UFA Mark Flood?”

Mark Flood played 33 games for the Jets last season, averaging 15:21 minutes per game of icetime. The 27 year old recorded three goals, four assists, for a total of seven points and was able to step in to the lineup when needed. He was a fan favourite after spending 2010-11 with the Manitoba Moose and transitioning to the IceCaps. Flood was on a two-way contract last season, but the Jets did not send him down at any point after his initial call up, as he would have to pass through waivers on the way down, and they did not want to lose him. (Even though Flood was signed to a two way contract last season, as per the CBA, his age would have required him to pass through waivers, should the Jets had wanted to send him to the AHL.)

The discussion continued:

“It’s unlikely that Mark Flood will get a one-way contract offer from the Jets, he might get a two-way contract but my guess is that’s a situation where it’s on the table waiting for him, but he’s seeing what else is available to him potentially on a one way deal.”

Ezra Ginsburg (@ICEzzyG) added:

“Mark Flood is an unrestricted free agent, so he can sign with anybody, but obviously he has the history with the Manitoba Moose (and the True North organization).”

Ginsburg, who recently quit smoking (#GoTeamEzzy) projected that Flood would likely sign a two way contract with the Jets if he did not receive a one-way contract from another team.

As for Paul Postma, Richard Pollock (@ICRichyP) feels it’s time him to get a full shot at a spot in the lineup.

“I’m assuming Postma is going to get a shot here (as a result of the one-way deal). Clitsome was a guy the Jets picked up off of waivers to replace Oduya, it’s time to give Postma a shot.”

Taking the position of head coach, Pollock gave his insight on potential defense pairings.

“What you would want to do is you’d want to have the three right handed defenseman, Byfuglien, Bogosian and Postma, three big guys and puck movers playing the right side. Then the combination of Hainsey, Enstrom and Stuart on the left side, with Clitsome being the seventh defenseman.”

Here are the projected defense pairings, (obviously changes will be made throughout the season, but for the time being).

Byfuglien – Enstrom

Stuart – Bogosian

Hainsey – Postma

Clitsome

Drew Mindell added, “with Postma’s best attributes being his offensive skills, you would think that he will get some minutes on the power play.”

Pollock continued, “He’ll probably get some time on the second power play unit, they’ll try to shelter him I’m guessing (due to the fact that this will be his first full NHL season).”

Ezra Ginsburg: “Everything we’ve heard about the way he’s played in St. John’s and in the NHL, he’s earned it. He was second on the team last year in scoring, he’s been close to a point per game in the AHL. He’s at that age (where prospects make the jump to the NHL). We’ve watched him a little bit, and Jets fans got to see him a couple times this year, Postma is a very steady defenseman, he’s not overly physical, but he’s a good skater, he’s smart, you hear a lot about his intelligence, his hockey IQ and he’s going to give them another element on the power play.”

“Losing a guy like Johnny Oduya, he replaces that, Postma is definitely going to get a lot more time. I agree with that Grant Clitsome’s probably going to be in the same position that Derek Meech and Mark Flood were toward the end of last year as the seventh defenseman.”

Pollock:

“There’s no lack of talent on the back end, the question is can they play defense. We know all these guys can move the puck for the most part, except for Stuart really, but they’re not great defensively, especially as a unit. These guys need to play defense, and they didn’t do a great job of it last year. Can they do a good job of that this year? (It will be tough) because the contents of the defense haven’t changed much aside from Paul Postma. He’s improved in the defensive game as far as we know from talking with Keith McCambridge and Robin Short of the St. John’s Telegram, having said that, it’s one thing to do that at the AHL level, it’s another thing to do it at the NHL level.

You expect the Jets to ease him in on the third defense pairing, and second line power play, they’ll see what he’s got and hopefully he can add some nice value to the squad, but he’ll need to play well defensively.”

The entire interview is available here at Illegal Curve, or subscribe to the podcast on iTunes.

Follow the author on twitter @mremis

The Illegal Curve Hockey Show airs Saturdays from noon to 3pm on TSN Radio 1290.

Do you think these are the seven defensemen the Jets will start the 2012-13 season with, or do you foresee some additional moves made on the back end? A trade? An additional signing? Sound off in the comments section!

Let’s assume the lines for next season will be similar to how they were last season. With the current roster they would look like this:

Ladd – Little – Wheeler

Kane – Jokinen – Wellwood

Ponikarovsky – Burmistrov – Antropov

Miettinen – Slater – Thorburn

This leaves one spot open on the roster for Patrice Cormier, Carl Klingberg, Spencer Machacek or Ben Maxwell to occupy.

On this past Saturday’s Illegal Curve Hockey Show, Drew, Richard and Ezra speculated that there may not be a spot on the roster for Spencer Machacek, who is currently an RFA.

The entire episode of the most recent Illegal Curve Hockey Show is available for download at IllegalCurve.com, or subscribe to the podcast on iTunes.

The team has several right handed shooters in the right wing slot: Blake Wheeler, Kyle Wellwood, Chris Thorburn and Antti Miettienen

Richard Pollock went on:

“This says a lot about what they think of Spencer Machacek, who they put through waivers last year, so that says a lot about what they think of him anyways. This signing to me, signals they don’t have much in the way of hope for him. The same goes for Carl Klingberg, you’d assume he’ll spend another year in the AHL.”

“The only spot that’s available right now is the fourth line left wing spot that Tanner Glass occupied last season.”

Drew Mindell continued:

“In my mind I thought Kyle Wellwood was gone to be honest; but this Wellwood signing tells you that the Jets don’t have a lot of hope that there’s somebody from the AHL who could fill that right side role.”

Ezra Ginsburg added:

“They’re going to play Wellwood on the second or third line because they don’t believe that Machacek or Ivan Telegin will fill Wellwood’s offensive contributions.”

Richard Pollock summed up the Jets offseason moves with this comment:

“You’re replacing Mason with Montoya, Glass and Stapleton with Jokinen and Ponikarosvky, so you’ve gotten better. Right now you’re in the mix for the 10-9-8-7 slots, maybe even sixth (in the Eastern Conference).”

“Bringing back Wellwood says as much about Wellwood as it does about what they think of the other players in the system. This is a complete red flag that these guys will never be ready. Look at the ages of these players.”

Ben Maxwell -  24

Spencer Machacek – 23

Patrice Cormier – 22

Carl Klingberg – 21

“If they thought either of them would be a third line right winger, they would be playing right now.”

Spencer Machacek remains an RFA and little updates have been provided on the negotiation process. With little room on the roster, the Jets should be looking to sign him to a two-way contract.

The Illegal Curve Hockey Show airs at a special time this summer on Saturday from 9am – 11am. Subscribe to the podcast on iTunes.

It is not that Jokinen cannot pass, or is even a bad passer when he attempts to move the puck, it is that his first move is generally to put the puck on net.  We are talking about a player that has put 351 shots on net during two different seasons (Evgeni Malkin led the entire NHL with 339 shots on goal last season).

Jokinen actually has had three seasons in which he has more goals than assists.  That is fairly uncommon for point producing players–Stamkos, Gaborik, Moulson and Hartnell did that in the top 30 point producers this season.

With a player that has not been known as a pass-first player, it would be interesting to examine how he came about his assists last season and see what his strengths were and where he appears to feel most comfortable.  So, let’s do just that.

When Does Jokinen Register Assists

Jokinen registered 38 assists in 31 games last season.  Let’s delve deeper into how he registered those assists.

The former Flame logged significant power play time last season, playing 3:06 minutes per game, which was third of all Flames forwards behind only Jarome Iginla and Alex Tanguay.

At even strength, Jokinen logged 15:26 minutes per game, which was second on the team behind only Iginla.

Jokinen played minimally on the penalty kill with only 0:24 minutes per game.  As an aside, the Jets do need to improve their penalty kill and Jokinen and Alexei Ponikarovsky will do little to help in that regard.

In what game situations did Jokinen register his assists:

As you can tell, Jokinen excelled on the power play last season.  In fact, he led the Flames with the most first assists per 60 minutes played on the man advantage.

On the power play, Jokinen likes to set up on the right half-boards and create offense from there–him and Iginla paired up on a few power play goals that saw Jokinen make the cross-ice pass to Iginla for the one-timer.  With Jokinen generally setting up on right half boards, the Jets may look to put Dustin Byfuglien on the weak side to play a one-timer roll just as Iginla does in Calgary.  Both Byfuglien and Iginla have good one-timers (Iginla’s is arguably the best in the game) and Jokinen likes to work off the weak side (we will touch on that soon).

First or Second Assists

Next we examine whether Jokinen’s assists were first or second assists.

Jokinen is a player that has actually registered more first assists than second assists over the past two seasons.  His plays are leading directly to goals which is a positive.  If you had your druthers, you’d rather the player you are acquiring is directly responsible for set ups than not.

Mind you, playing with Jarome Iginla certainly does not hurt.  Of Jokinen’s first assists, 10 of them were to Jarome Iginla on the scoring end.  The Jets do not have a right-handed sniper, Blake Wheeler is more of a pass-first player and Anti Miettinen does not have a great shot, so it will be interesting to see which player Jokinen meshes with best at even strength.

Where Jokinen Registers His Assists From

We alluded above to Jokinen’s penchant for creating from the right half-boards on the power play.  Well, Jokinen actually likes to create from the right side of the ice, not just the right half boards.  Many left-handed shooters also have that preference because they are on their off-wing and have more flexibility and options in terms of passing lanes.

The statistics indicate that Jokinen feels most comfortable from behind the net to the right hash-marks.  So, if you can picture the offensive zone in four quadrants (as if viewing it from the offensive blue line), Jokinen likes the top right quadrant.

Olli Jokinen is not a playmaker like Blake Wheeler.  That said, he can create offense with his passing, even if it is not necessarily his forte.  The question, however, is whether Jokinen, who is in his mid-3os, can create offense without a career 500 goal scorer playing shotgun on his wing?

The 2012-13 season will help fans answer that question.  For now, it is enjoyable having a new, established forward to look forward to when the Jets enter season two of their franchise rebirth.

After giving some thought to potential line combinations, here’s what Coach Noel might do to start the season. Each line has a defined role and some inherent chemistry.

Line 1 – The Cycle Line

LW Andrew Ladd – C Olli Jokinen – RW Spencer Machacek

Andrew Ladd and Olli Jokinen are the shooters; the guys who can use their big bodies in the gritty areas to work the puck deep in the offensive zone. Spencer Machacek excelled last season on the third line, playing with former All-Star Jokinen and Captain Ladd should give the youngster a boost in what should be his first full NHL season.

Line 2 – The Speed Line

LW Evander Kane – C Bryan Little – RW Blake Wheeler

The strength of this line is speed; Evaner Kane may be one of the fastest players in the league, Blake Wheeler has exceptional speed for any player, let alone someone who stands at 6’5” and Bryan Little is better suited here in a second line role. Blake Wheeler was a passing machine last year, if he is feeding Kane all season, 40 goals will be within reach. (*Assuming the Jets are able to sign RFA Evander Kane)

Line 3 – The Russian Line

LW Nik Antropov – C Alex Burmistrov – RW Alexei Ponikarovsky

“The Russian Dolls”, 2 Alex’s 1 Nik, call them what you want, but this is what should be the Jets 3^rd line. Hailing from Kazakstan, Russia and the Ukraine, each of these players were born in the former Soviet Union. The newly reunited Antropov and Ponikarovsky are a natural choice to be line mates. CBC’s Andi Petrillo says they were “attached at the hip” during their days in Toronto and St. John’s from 2000-2009. Here’s hoping they can rediscover that chemistry while helping twenty-year-old Alex Burmistrov develop his game.

Line 4 – The Checking Line

LW Patrice Cormier – C Jim Slater – RW Chris Thorburn

Patrice Cormier is a perfect fit to replace Tanner Glass. He’ll play at the wing, but can move to centre where he posted a 22-8 record in faceoffs last season. These guys get the puck deep, apply pressure through the forecheck and provide steady defensive zone coverage on the penalty kill. This line can skate and shut down the opposition’s top line, while also sticking up for their teammates. Chris Thorburn’s eleven fights last season lead the team while Slater and Cormier aren’t afraid to get in the dirty areas. While they won’t be the GST, Patrice Cormier brings the extra 2% that will have fans chanting PST.

In this lineup configuration, Antti Miettinen is a healthy scratch.

Agree? Disagree? Have your own line ideas, post in the comments.

With starting goaltender Ondrej Pavelec locked up for five years and $19.5 million dollars, Jets General Manager Kevin Cheveldayoff must now decide who he is going to use as his teams back-up goaltender for next season.  Edward Pasquale, who played for the St.John’s IceCaps this past season, is probably the best option within the organization but he has only played one year of professional hockey and probably isn’t ready for NHL duty just yet.

Illegal Curve has compiled a list of Ten Free Agent Goalies who could replace Chris Mason:

(Player’s age, team he played for last season and statistics are in parenthesis)

1. Al Montoya (27 years old, New York Islanders, 31 GP, 9-11-5, .893 Save %, 3.10 GAA)

2. Dan Ellis (32 years old, Anaheim Ducks, 10 GP, 1-5-0, .911 Save %, 2.72 GAA)

3. Alex Auld ( 31 years old, Ottawa Senators, 14 GP, 2-4-2, .884 %, 3.35 GAA)

4. Andrew Raycroft (32 years old, Dallas Stars, 10 GP, 2-8-0, .898 Save %, 3.52 GAA)

5. Sebastien Caron (32 years old, Nashville Predators, 3 GP, 1-1-0, .897 Save %, 3.11 GAA)

6. Ty Conklin (36 years old, Detroit Red Wings, 15 GP, 5-6-1, .884 Save %, 3.28 GAA)

7. Antero Niitymaki (32 years old, Syracuse Crunch and Worcester Sharks, AHL, 13 GP, 4-8-0, .877 Save %, 3.60 GAA)

8. Nathan Lawson (28 years old, Hamilton Bulldogs, AHL, 44 games played, 19-17-4, .914 Save %, 2.57 GAA)

9. Brent Johnson (35 years old, Pittsburgh Penguins, 16 GP, 6-7-2, .883 Save %, 3.11 GAA)

10. Dwayne Roloson (42 years old, Tampa Bay Lightning, 40 GP, 13-16-3, .886, 3.66 GAA)

The 32-year-old is coming off of a season spent between Carolina and New Jersey. He played in all 82 games, scoring 14 goals, 19 assists for 33 points.

Ponikarovsky becomes one of the Jets bigger players at 6’4″ and 226 lbs. While he may not be quick with his feet, he has good hockey sense and could score 20 goals if put in the right situation.

This is the type of signing many predicted the Jets would make, a low-risk short-term deal. As it has been said on the Illegal Curve Hockey Show in the past, there is no such thing as a bad one-year contract. He will likely play a second or third line role.

Most notably, this reunites Ponikarovsky with Nik Antropov who played together in Toronto from 2002-2009.

Here’s his OT winner against Philadelphia this past playoffs.

The Regina native signed a one-year deal for $750,000 Winnipeg last July 1. He goes to Pittsburgh where he gets a raise, a longer contract and a legitimate chance at a Stanley Cup. Glass was one win away from Lord Stanley’s Cup with Vancouver in 2011.

The hard work on the line of Tanner Glass, Jim Slater and Chris Thorburn lead them to be named the “GST Line”. Chants of “G-S-T” were a regular occurrence at MTS Centre, leading the Jets to release an official “GST” t-shirt.

He didn’t show up much on the score-sheet, recording five goals and eleven assists for sixteen points, but his heart and determination made him a fan favourite. This was exemplified on March 30, 2012 when he finished a game after breaking his foot. The injury ended his season early.

According to Ken Wiebe, Glass said “it was an extremely tough decision to leave Winnipeg.”

Season highlights:

He recorded a Gordie Howe hat-trick on November 8th (includes an epic fight with Cody McCormick)

Scored the game winning goal helping the Jets earn their first win of the season.

He had his glove tossed into the stands by Adam Burish

Glass and the Penguins will visit Winnipeg on December 15, 2012. I’d expect him to get a salute from the crowd during a television timeout, as Jets fans had done during last season.

According to a tweet from Winnipeg Jets Director of Corporate Communications and Hockey Operations Scott Brown:

#NHLJets agree to terms with defenceman Derek Meech.

— Scott Brown (@BrownScottTN) July 1, 2012

Pierre LeBrun confirms

Meech deal with Jets: $700,000 NHL/$105,000 AHL (one year, two-way deal)

— Pierre LeBrun (@Real_ESPNLeBrun) July 1, 2012

Meech, a Winnipegger will return to the Jets/IceCaps for at least one more season and will provide a nice source of depth for the Jets should he enter the lineup.

The 28-year-old sat out much of last season with a knee injury, playing in two games with the Jets and six with the IceCaps.

Meech was effective with the IceCaps during their playoff run where he recorded nine points in fifteen games.

Here’s a Derek Meech highlight from last season.

We have already discussed the approximate value of contracts that both Kane and Pavelec will demand this summer, but let’s take a closer look at Kane’s game as a whole.

Last season, fans everywhere in town would dismiss Kane’s goal-scoring ability by saying he was too one-dimensional; that he could only score goals.  Well, first off, scoring goals is a talent that few have, so if Kane is going to have one talent, it is beneficial for the Jets to have that be goal scoring rather than hitting or blocking shots.

Another common complaint of Jets fans was that Kane’s moves with the puck quickly became predictable.  They lamented that he would seemingly only go down the left wing and either continue to skate wide or use the same toe-drag move on the defenseman.

While there is truth to the fact that Kane is limited in his offensive moves, frankly, he still scored—a lot.  Never mind the fact that Kane’s linemates this season were not exactly Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry (his linemates at the World Championships in the spring).

After hearing the above complaints, we thought it would be interesting to take a closer look at exactly where and how Evander Kane scored his 30 goals this season.

Before examining each goal, here is a list of the games that Kane scored, how many shots he had in that specific game and how many minutes he played in that specific contest.

Listing of Evander Kane’s Goals in 2011-12

We know that Kane popped 30 goals last season at the age of 20 and that he scored more goals than any other Jet player in 2011-12. Impressive? I think so.

Consider the fact that Kane finished 25th in the NHL in goals last season and was the youngest goal-scorer ranked in the top 30.

We know the British Columbia native can score, so let’s now examine how he scores his goals.

How Evander Kane Scored in 2011-12

Goal Location

Some NHL players are hesitant to go to the net.  They prefer to hang around the periphery and avoid the physical pounding that one will face when hanging right around the top of the opposing netminder’s crease.  Evander Kane, on the other hand, seems to thrive on taking such a beating and eliciting such attention.  He consistently uses his big body to crash the net and demonstrated a willingness to incur the physical attention of the other team’s big, strong and mean defensemen.

Just where were Kane’s goals scored from last season (not counting his empty net goal from the neutral zone):

While Kane is a left winger, he does not score all of his goals from that side of the ice.  Kane often moves to his off-wing in the offensive zone, especially around the net, where he ably one-timed shots into the back of the opposing team’s net. 

The above data indicates a couple things.  Kane is certainly not shy about going to the dirty areas.  He scored many goals from just above the crease/bottom of the circles.

It also indicates that he has a terrific shot.  Kane scored nine goals from above the hash marks.  A player like Kyle Wellwood is not going to snipe a ton of goals from above the hash marks, but Kane’s shot gives him the ability to beat net minders from afar.

Type of Shot

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize that Evander Kane has a terrific wrist shot.  It is not only a lethal, powerful shot, but also his release is so quick and he has the ability few players have to shoot while skating full speed.   Kane probably has a top-five NHL wrist shot and it is no surprise that 23 of his 30 goals in 2011-12 were scored, in some form, utilizing that very shot.

As you can tell below, Kane is not apt to score with slap shots—and if you watched the Jets play, you know he hardly attempted a slap shot all season long.  That is not necessarily a bad thing; some players are just like that.

Type of Play

The type of plays that Evander Kane scored on this past season contained a variety of different methods.  Many of them were based upon his blazing speed, terrific wrist shot and willingness to go to the net.

His speed creates 2-on-1 opportunities.  His willingness to attack the net results in goals that are the product of rebounds, scrums, tip-ins and cross-crease passes.  His terrific shot also allows him to score off the half boards.

All in all, people may complain about how Evander Kane plays the game—but he does one thing better than any other Jet—he scores.  In fact, he scores a lot and does so in a variety of different fashions that should lend well to scoring in the future.

The Jets have a few problems on the roster, Kane’s “predictability,” however, is quite far down that list.

Such complaints generally sound like this: “Andrew Ladd can score goals but he takes the stupidest penalties 200 feet away from our net and does it when the game is on the line.  What kind of a leader takes such stupid penalties?”

Is this actually the case? Or are fans more likely to focus on Ladd’s inopportune penalties because he is the captain and one of the team’s most highly paid players?

Instead of relying on perceptions, let’s dig beneath the surface and unearth the realities of Ladd’s penalty taking.

First off, let’s examine the Jets’ top penalty taking forwards with respect to minor penalties.

Most would admit that Andrew Ladd gets far more flack for his minor penalties than does the emerging Blake Wheeler.  It is for that reason that Wheeler will serve as a nice comparable under these circumstances.

There are four important variables to take into account when evaluating the two players and their respective penalty taking.  Before delving into those four variables, it should be noted that coincidental penalties will not be factored into the equation as these types of penalties do not lead to a power play advantage for the opposing team.

Period

As mentioned above, the perception is that Ladd takes all of his penalties at crunch time—aka the third period of play.  Well, let’s take a look at when Ladd takes his penalties, broken down by period and then examine the same for Wheeler.

As you can see, Ladd takes a tad higher percentage of his penalties late in games (3% more in the third period and overtime) than does Wheeler.  That is exactly one late period penalty differential.

Types of Penalties

Now we move onto the types of penalties Ladd takes.  The common perception is that his penalties are “lazy” penalties or “stick” penalties as some call them.

Let’s take a look at the specific penalties taken and classify them.

Stick penalties will be classified as: Hooking, Hi-sticking, cross-checking, tripping and slashing.

Total percentage of Ladd’s penalties that are stick penalties: 61%

Total percentage of Wheeler’s penalties that are stick penalties: 76%

Score of the Game

You have likely heard this comment: “But not only does Ladd take penalties; he takes penalties when the game is on the line.”

While one could make a strong argument that the game is always on the line—we can consider score effects in our analysis.

Percentage of Andrew Ladd’s penalties taken in close games (defined as games that are tied or see either team up by a maximum of one goal):  61%

Percentage of Blake Wheeler’s penalties taken in close games (defined as games that are tied or see either team up by a maximum of one goal): 71%

Most NHL games are one-goal affairs—it seems like every game finishes with a final score of 3-2.  So, it is likely most NHLers tally their penalties in “close game” situations.  In any event, Wheeler has actually taken a higher percentage of his penalties in those situations than has Ladd.

Zone

The hottest issue amongst Jets fans is Ladd’s propensity to take, not only penalties, but offensive zone penalties.  Is that perception or is that reality?

So what does all of the above mean? Does it mean that Andrew Ladd is faultless?  That Andrew Ladd deserves no blame for his indiscretions as documented within this article?

Well, that is not the point.

The point is to provide context for fans.  Andrew Ladd takes penalties in the offensive zone, he takes penalties in the third period and he takes stick penalties.  While he is the captain and bears the burden of that responsibility, the fact other players do not wear such letters on their chest does not exonerate them from responsibility for their actions.

Ladd has become the whipping boy for the fans ire; however, the fans that chastise Ladd for his penalty taking should do the same for one of their favourites, Blake Wheeler.  As the facts above dictate, their penalty taking patterns are awfully similar.

Richard Pollock is the co-analyst of the Illegal Curve Hockey Show, airing Saturday’s from 12pm-3pm on TSN 1290. Follow him on twitter @ICRichyP

Thorburn’s injury was discussed by Drew, Richard and Ezra on Saturday’s Illegal Curve Hockey Show. The following quotes have been transcribed and paraphrased from the latest episode (available in its entirety). Subscribe on iTunes and have the podcast automatically sent to you as soon as it becomes available.

“It took him 50 games to get his first goal, he’s got four now. He’s a good physical player, he stands up for his teammates. Tanner Glass, Jim Slater and Chris Thorburn, while they don’t get a lot of goals, they’ve really gelled as a line. They do play well as a unit, there is a chemistry element there, when they’ve thrown Miettinen on with them in the past, it just hasn’t done much.”

Thorburn’s highlight reel goal last week against the Sabres:

http://youtu.be/jdyvFpgKC9E

Even though the “MSG” line, hasn’t worked in the past, Richard Pollock was quick to say that Miettinen would be the easiest fit into the third line right wing spot, as he is currently the fourth line right winger.

Pollock went on to go over other potential replacements

“I don’t think Eric Fehr fits on that line. He wasn’t performing at a level that warranted being put in the lineup. If you call somebody up now, and I think you should, will Mahachek come in because he’s a right winger? Gagnon is a centre, but you might want to bring him up.”

While the GST line is a fan favourite, it has been debated numerous times on the Illegal Curve Hockey Show that on a top NHL team, they would receive fourth line instead of third line minutes. This week was no different.

As it was put bluntly on Saturday’s show.

“As an organization, if you want to compete with the top teams, you can’t be throwing out a line, ten to fifteen minutes a game that has a top scorer on it of fifteen points. That is a fact. All three players bring good qualities and they can be a solid fourth line.

They take a lot of draws in their own zone, Slater is  very good at face offs, they kill penalties, they forecheck well, play a responsible defensive game, and play against the opponent’s best players. In addition they’re good in the room, and they stick up for their teammates, those are qualities that shouldn’t go unnoticed.

But at the same time when you have a line out there that can’t muster anything in the way of offense, you’re going to run into problems winning on a nightly basis. If you’re down 3-0 and they are one of the three lines you are rolling out there in a situation where you are trying to get back in a game, that can’t be one of the three lines you are throwing out there all the time. Give Cheveldayoff and company time to assemble a complete roster.”

Expect that type of analysis each week on the Illegal Curve Hockey Show, Saturday’s from Noon to 3pm on TSN 1290. Subscribe to the podcast on iTunes and have it sent to you automatically as it becomes available.

With fifteen games remaining, the Jets have put themselves in a position to make a run at a playoff spot. Coming into the season Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff said one of the goals was for the players to show progress and development. If the Jets do end up falling short of a playoff spot, they can say they have had a small victory by way of the improvement of the following players:

Blake Wheeler has emerged as the star of the Jets since the beginning of the long December home stand, averaging a point per game post December 1 (41 points in 41 games). His previous high of 24 assists and 45 points has been shattered as he is up to 39 and 54 respectively. The 25-year-old has become one of the league’s premier passers; ranking 14^th in assists and has become a force in the shootout leading the team with four goals on six attempts.

In his third season, Evander Kane has taken another step forward. His 26 goals and 46 points are already an improvement over last season’s 19 goals and 46 points. Kane has been shooting more frequently this season as well, increasing his average shots per game to 3.88 from 3.21 last season. His 3.88 shots per game rank  4^th in the league only behind superstars Evgeni Malkin, James Neal, and Ilya Kovalchuk. The future is bright for Evander Kane, and the Jets will have to make some important decisions regarding his next contract. Illegal Curve’s Richard Pollock gave his analysis on what that contract might look like (part 1, part 2).

Dustin Byfuglien is following up his breakout 2010-11 season in Atlanta, with an even more impressive one in Winnipeg. Last season he set career highs in goals, assists, and points and it looks like he will eclipse his assist and point totals this season. The 26-year-old is one of the league’s elite offensive defensemen ranking third in points among rearguards with 42, as well as third in points-per-game with 0.82.  With “Big Buff” being under contract for four more seasons, Winnipeg fans can look forward to seeing the defenseman during his prime NHL years.

Alex Burmistrov is only in his second season, but has already improved over his rookie campaign. The Russian has seen increased ice-time this year averaging 16:46 minutes per game, compared to 13:13 last season. The twenty-year-old has six more points than last season’s total and his thirteen goals more than double his rookie year total of six.

Zach Bogosian has been a steady presence on the Jets defense this season. At 19 assists and 0.41 points per game this season, he has improved on previous career highs of 13 and 0.40. In his fourth season, the 21-year-old has logged major minutes on the back end with 23:29 per game (a career high).

These five players have an average age of 22.4 and along with Andrew Ladd, Bryan Little and goaltender Ondrej Pavelec form a very young core for the Winnipeg Jets hockey club.

While there is no guarantee the Jets will make playoffs this season, fans can take solace in the positive developments of individual players in the team’s first season in the Manitoba capital.

follow the author on twitter @mremis

From the Winnipeg Jets:

The Winnipeg Jets today announced they have traded defenceman Johnny Oduya to the Chicago Blackhawks in exchange for their second and third round draft choices in the 2013 NHL Entry Draft.

Oduya, 30, has played in 62 games with the Winnipeg Jets this season. In that time, he has recorded 13 points (2G, 11A) and 33 penalty minutes. The Stockholm, Sweden native has played in 445 career NHL games between New Jersey, Atlanta and Winnipeg for a career total 109 points (22G, 87A) and 222 penalty minutes.

He was originally drafted by the Washington Capitals in the seventh round, 221^st overall, in the 2001 NHL Entry Draft.

Instant analysis: This is a solid deal made by GM Kevin Cheveldayoff, getting two picks is more than enough for Oduya. The rookie GM has done well so far in his first trade deadline day showing thriftiness by acquiring Clitsome and getting two draft picks for Oduya who was a UFA at the end of the season.

The Jets could afford to give up Oduya during their playoff push due to their depth on defence, most notably because of the emergence of Mark Flood.

Dennis Beyak voice of the Winnipeg Jets for TSN Jets appeared on the Illegal Curve Hockey Show this afternoon and said:

“I thought, if they could get a 3rd round pick (that would be a good move), there are so many defenseman out there that are 5, 6 type guys that teams are willing to move. Gilroy, Lee, there have been defenseman who have switched teams. If they could muster up a 3rd round pick, I thought that woudl be a good trade for the Winnipeg Jets. The offset is that they are not until 2013, but the scouts are saying the 2012 draft is not as deep as 2013.”

Johnny Oduya appeared on TSN shortly after the announcement of the deal and had the following to say:

The Sporting News:  In Johnny Oduya, Chicago Blackhawks get their defenseman

Winnipeg Free Press: Oduya traded to Chicago

Player Tweets

Zach Bogosian (@bogogo4): “Best of luck to Johny O, great friend and teammate. DAVIDDDDD #CHIZZLED”

Tim Stapleton (@Bluce_Reee): “Good luck Jonny O… Going to miss a great guy and teammate…. Good luck chi town.. STAAAAAPPPEEEYYY.”

Andrew Ladd (@aladd16): Tough to see Johnny O go!… Great friend and teammate! Good Luck in ChiTown! #fanta

Media Tweets

Rick Ralph (@RickRalphTSN): “Oduya gives the #Blackhawks depth on the blueline. He’s a good puck moving defenseman.”

Sara Orlesky (@saraorlesky): “#nhljets get a 2nd and 3rd rd pick in 2013 from the Hawks in Oduya deal. Nice job by Cheveldayoff. More than what a lot of us here predicted”

Barry Melrose: “”I think it is a great move for Chicago. Obviously, they needed defensive help, and Oduya fits the Chicago style. He is a great skater and a guy who can really help their depth, and they didn’t have to give up anyone off their roster.”"

Jesse Rogers (@ESPNChiHawks): “just ok. but an upgrade on the third pair…so its something” “Quick take…This is a small move…good skater..kind of small and soft…fits style for puck possession but thats it…” “Boy, 3.5 mil gets you 13 points and a minus-9….didnt realize he made that much…UFA after this yr”

Tracey Myers (@TramyersCSN): “Quick story on Oduya acquisition. Will update thru the day: http://bit.ly/xKid0H #Blackhawks“

From the Winnipeg Jets official press release

The Winnipeg Jets today announced they have claimed defenceman Grant Clitsome off waivers. Clitsome was placed on waivers by the Columbus Blue Jackets and will now report to the Jets.

Clitsome, 26, has played in a career 93 NHL games with the Columbus Blue Jackets. During that time, the defenceman collected 36 points (9G, 27A) and 46 penalty minutes. He’s played 51 games with the Blue Jackets this season, recording 14 points (4G, 10A) and 24 penalty minutes.

He was originally drafted by the Columbus Blue Jackets in the ninth round, 271^st overall, in the 2004 NHL Entry Draft.

Illegal Curve’s Richard Pollock: “you never want too many defeseman, he’s a left handed shooting defenseman, not the tallest guy, but built tough. He can move the puck out of his own zone. he does alot of what Johnny Oduya does, at less than half the price. If you are going to be the Winnipeg Jets and can fill the 5th or 6th defense spot with Clitsome for less than $2 million, and move Stuart up to the 4th defenseman, this is a good move by them.”

Clitsome is under contract for next season at a cap hit of $1.25 million.

Winnipeg will have to free up a roster spot to make room for Clitsome by trading a player, or moving a player to the IR. It is expected that Johnny Oduya, who is a UFA after this season will be on the move to Boston or Chicago.

Coach Claude Noel, who coached Clitsome in Columbus, had this to say about the newly acquired defenseman at a media conference this afternoon, “smart player, shoots the puck real well, has good hockey intelligence, is reliable defensively, he becomes another part back there and we’ll figure out how to manage it.”

The newest Jet appeared on the Illegal Curve Hockey Show Monday afternoon and was welcomed to Winnipeg by the boys. Here’s what he had to say:

Listen to the interview here, or continue reading.

Grant Clitsome on coming to Winnipeg:

“Thrilled, I’m really excited, I had no idea what was going to happen, it was my first experience being put on waivers, you don’t really know what’s going to happen until 12 o’clock, when I found out I was thrilled, I can’t wait to get there.

“It’s exciting, playoff hockey is so fun to be a part of, I haven’t had the opportunity in my professional career to be a part of that. To be a part of that playoff push is really exciting.”

“I heard I should get some warm clothing, that’s been the biggest piece of advice so far. We played there in the preseason this year and I played against the Moose, I’ve been there a few times. The fans I couldn’t’ believe I that exhibition game this year, it was the first game they played. The fans were phenomenal it was so loud in that building it was a pretty cool atmosphere and it was only the preseason, I cant imagine what a regular season game would be like.”

On his experience with Coach Noel:

“I played for Claude Noel in my first call up to the NHL with Columbustwo years ago. I feel comfortable with Claude I think he’s a great coach, he’s done a fantastic job this year, I’m looking forward to be working with him. I’m flying out tomorrow morning, I’ll get in tomorrow ill be watching the game tonight for sure.”

On his style of game:

 “I try and work hard, and be physical, I try and make sure I’m getting my shots through to the net and contribute offensively while being reliable defensively.”

On his conversation with GM Kevin Cheveldayoff:

 “We did touch base, basically just welcoming me to the organization and telling me he was excited to have me aboard, we didn’t have a chance to get into details, it was just a welcome to the team conversation.”

Articles:

Aaron Portzline (@APortzline): “Clitsome Claimed by Jets“ Here’s Portzline’s blog post on the acquisition, includes quotes from Clitsome.

Ed Tait: Jets Pick up Clitsome from Blue Jackets

Tweets from around the media:

Grant Clitsome (@GClitsome): “Very excited to be a Winnipeg Jet!”

David Shoalts (@dshoalts) : Jackets D Grant Clitsome claimed on waivers by Wpg Jets: “Kind of bittersweet. Organization put lot of time in developing me.” Clitsome, who rejoins Jets coach Claude Noel, former CBJ assistant: “I’m excited because they’re in playoff push. Claude’s a character guy.”

Darren Pang (@Panger40): “Good pick up by Jets getting Grant Clitsome off waivers.”

The goaltender position is one of the most interesting positions in all of sport. Goaltenders face considerable individual pressure unique to a team sport such as hockey.  The lonely island of the crease generally results in anointing a city’s hero or looking down upon a city’s goat. The line between both hero and goat is so fine that the same netminders can find themselves in both categories in the same season.  Rarely is there a middle ground.

This season the Czech netminder, who has probably been perceived as more hero than goat, is earning a salary of $1.15 million.  Before delving into Pavelec’s value on the market, let’s first venture into the territory of a goaltender’s value in the current NHL marketplace.

The Pavelec negotiations will provide fans with an indicator of how the Jets’ brass views goaltenders and their monetary value.  Some teams, such as Chicago (Kevin Cheveldayoff’s former team) and Detroit, do not believe in paying goaltenders significant amounts of money; these teams have spent $3.26 and $3.0 million respectively on their starting and backup netminders this season.  Teams such as the Wings and Hawks have been extremely successful utilizing this method.  They make a concerted effort to spend much of their respective cap space on tremendous top-end defensive talent (Nicklas Lidstrom and Duncan Keith to name just two) and top-end offensive talent (Pavel Datsyuk and Jonathan Toews among many others).  Goaltending, while not overlooked, is apportioned a modest amount of the team’s salary cap.

Conversely, the defending Stanley Cup champion Boston Bruins are spending $6.25 million of salary cap space on netminding this season.   With the Bruins’ success last season and again this season, one could argue both methods work under the right circumstances.

This season the Winnipeg Jets spent $3.0 million (the same amount as Detroit, although it accounts for a higher percentage of team salary, as the Wings spend more money on player salaries than do the Jets) on the netminding duo of Pavelec and veteran Chris Mason.  Both of these contracts were signed by the previous regime, leaving us with little in the way of evidence as to how Kevin Cheveldayoff and company wish to spend TNSE’s money on the goaltender position.

With the possibility of a playoff spot being of paramount concern to the Winnipeg organization, fans will likely have to wait until the summer to find out how much the Jets intend to spend on the netminding position.  In the meantime, let’s attempt to narrow down the value of Ondrej Pavelec on the free agent market.

Comparables

Ondrej Pavelec has seen significant starting minutes in the NHL since the 2009-10 season.  Here are his significant goaltending statistics since that time:

Pavelec was a second round draft selection (41^st overall) in the 2005 NHL Entry Draft.  Here are the other netminders drafted within the first three rounds of that draft year:

1. Carey Price (fifth overall);
2. Tuukka Rask (21^st overall);
3. Tyler Plante (32^nd overall);
4. Jeff Frazee (38^th overall);
5. Pier-Olivier Pelletier (59^th overall);
6. Kristofer Westblom (65^th overall);
7. Jonathan Quick (72^nd overall); and
8. Ben Bishop (85^th overall).

Naturally, Carey Price, Tuukka Rask and Jonathan Quick serve as interesting comparables for Pavelec.  For interest’s sake, we will not strictly limit comparables to Pavelec’s draft year and will include a younger netminder in Semyon Varlamov (23^rd overall in 2006 NHL Entry Level) and an older netminder in Jaroslav Halak (271^st overall in 2003 NHL Entry Draft) in this analysis.

Leverage

Who needs a netminder?

Unlike Evander Kane, the market for netminders is not as significant as the market for a scoring left winger.  Realistically, how many teams need or want to acquire a netminder?

Let’s go division-by-division:

Southeast Division:

1. Washington Capitals: No (Neuvirth/Holtby);
2. Florida Panthers: No (Markstrom);
3. Carolina Hurricanes: No (Ward); and
4. Tampa Bay Lightning: Yes.

Atlantic Division:

1. New York Rangers: No (Lundqvist);
2. New York Islanders: Yes;
3. New Jersey Devils: Maybe;
4. Philadelphia Flyers: No (Bryzgalov); and
5. Pittsburgh Penguins: No (Fleury).

Northeast Division:

1. Montreal Canadiens: No (Price);
2. Toronto Maple Leafs: Maybe (Reimer);
3. Buffalo Sabres: No (Miller);
4. Boston Bruins: No (Thomas/Rask); and
5. Ottawa Senators: No (Anderson/Lehner).

Central Division:

1. Detroit Red Wings: No (Howard);
2. St. Louis Blues: No (Halak/Elliot/Bishop);
3. Chicago Blackhawks: Maybe (Crawford);
4. Nashville Predators: No (Rinne); and
5. Columbus Blue Jackets: Maybe (Mason).

Pacific Division:

1. Dallas Stars: No (Lehtonen);
2. Phoenix Coyotes: No (Smith);
3. Los Angeles Kings: No (Quick/Bernier);
4. San Jose Sharks: No (Niemi); and
5. Anaheim Ducks: No (Hiller).

Northwest Division:

1. Vancouver Canucks: No (Luongo/Schneider);
2. Edmonton Oilers: Maybe (Khabibulin/Dubnyk);
3. Calgary Flames: No (Kiprusoff);
4. Minnesota Wild: No (Backstrom); and
5. Colorado Avalanche: No (Varlamov).

There are arguably seven teams that may or may not be interested in acquiring a netminder in the off-season.    That number, however, could be whittled down depending on Martin Brodeur’s return for the Devils, the Blackhawks’ confidence in Corey Crawford, the Oilers’ ability to deal Khabibulin and their future plans for Devan Dubnyk, among many other factors.  The market could, in theory, be whittled down to two or three teams that truly need a goaltender.

Click here to read the 2nd part of Richard’s analysis of Ondrej Pavelec’s fair market value.

Now that supply has been set out above, let’s examine demand.  In other words, how many free agent goalies will be available to sign without giving up any compensation, aside from money (age in parenthesis)?

1. Tomas Vokoun (35);
2. Martin Brodeur (39);
3. Josh Harding (27);
4. Jonas Gustavsson (27);
5. Evgeni Nabokov (36); and
6. Ben Bishop (25).

A few of the above netminders likely won’t be relied on to start in the NHL but a couple of them may step in to log significant minutes in some team’s crease.  Never mind the fact that we have not yet taken into account quality backup netminders on certain teams like Vancouver (Schneider) and Los Angeles (Bernier).  Simply put, there is hardly a market for netminders in the NHL.

This, of course, works in Kevin Cheveldayoff’s favour.  Think about it; there is more supply than demand for netminders in the NHL.

The question then becomes, what is Ondrej Pavelec’s negotiating ploy?

He has the following options:

1. Arbitration;
2. Demand trade;
3. Offer sheet; and
4. Hold out

However, the options of demanding a trade or receiving an offer sheet are virtually remote, as the market is saturated with goaltending talent.  Also, the option of holding out is extremely rare because the player very possibly will never recoup the lost salary, never mind the risk that another netminder begins to perform and the need for the player decreases thereby hurting his market value and leverage. In essence, Pavelec’s leverage centers on arbitration.

Arbitration is an experience that both player and team generally hope to avoid, as it sometimes results in hurt feelings.  Former Devils center Bobby Holik documented just that on the Illegal Curve Hockey Show a few weeks ago.

In reality, it is in both the team and player’s interests to come to an agreement prior to an arbitration hearing.   Of course, that requires reasonable positions on both sides, which, for the purposes of this article, is an assumption we are going to rely on.

It is extremely interesting that three of the above netminders are also closing in on restricted free agent status.  Not surprisingly, these are the three netminders that were drafted in the same entry class as Pavelec.  Fascinatingly, all of Price, Rask and Pavelec signed two-year contacts after the expiration of their respective entry-level contracts.

Here were their second contracts:

On the other hand, Quick signed a three-year deal after his entry-level contract expired—a deal that appears quite team friendly at this time.  Varlamov did the same; signing a three-year deal after his entry-level contact was complete.

Halak signed a four-year deal that takes him to UFA status, but this was the Slovak netminder’s third NHL contract.  With Pavelec also looking for a third NHL contract, similarities can be drawn from their respective situations.

What had Jaroslav Halak accomplished prior to his third NHL contract?

Halak had obviously played less games than Pavelec heading into his third NHL contract, however, he also had a longer track record in professional hockey (69 games in AHL with Hamilton, never posting save percentage below .927), started for Slovakia in the Olympics and led the Habs on an incredible run to the Conference Finals after upsetting both the Penguins and Capitals in the first two rounds).

Considering Pavelec’s statistics do not really compare favourably to any of the goaltenders listed above (aside from Semyon Varlamov), his agent (Allan Walsh) has a more challenging argument on his hands.

Available Contract Options

In any contract negotiation, there are many options available for both sides.  Both the team and player will likely entertain the possibility of both short-term and long-term possibilities.

Pavelec only has two seasons after this season until he becomes a UFA.  This provides both Kevin Cheveldayoff and Allan Walsh with options with respect to term.

Players and teams generally do not opt for one-year contracts for young up-and-coming players.  Take for example the two-year contracts signed by Blake Wheeler and Zach Bogosian this off-season.  Two-year deals were determined to be a sensible middle ground for both player and team.  One-year deals, on the other hand, provide salary cap uncertainty for the team and pressure on the player to perform at exceptional levels to increase his value (something that can work both for the player and against the player depending on his makeup).

It is also important to point out that some teams may prefer a longer term deal, if it really believes the player is worth that type of term, because they can structure a deal in such a way as to keep the cap hit consistent from year-to-year.  For example, if the team signs Pavelec to a two-year contract for $5.0 million, the resulting cap hit would be $2.5 million per season.  If after the two-year contract expires, the team subsequently signs him to a three-year deal worth $15.0 million, the resulting cap hit for the subsequent contract would be $5.0 million per season.  Alternatively, if the team signed the player to a five-year deal for $20 million at the outset, the player would receive the same amount of money over the five year term ($20 million) but the team could lock in a cap hit of $4.0 million.  Obviously there is risk inherent in a long-term deal for the team, but some teams may prefer one option to the other.

Andrew Ladd signed a five-year contract with the Jets in the summer of 2011, so let’s assume for the purposes of this article that the team will not hand out a contract of greater length than that of the proverbial face of the franchise (there is also the issue/uncertainty of a new CBA this off-season, but that did not seem to deter the Jets from committing to Ladd long-term).  As a result, let’s work within the framework of a one-year contract through to a five-year contract for Pavelec.

Projected Contract(s)

Before moving further, we should also mention the highest paid NHL netminder, in terms of cap hit, is Henrik Lundqvist at $6.875 million.  Only four goalies in the NHL have a cap hit of $6.0 million and higher (Ryan Miller, Niklas Backtrom and Cam Ward.  Moreover, only seven goalies in the NHL make upwards of a $5.0 million cap hit per season.

The ceiling for Pavelec on any contract is likely $5.0 million.  Here are some interesting averages for the goaltenders that carry a $5.0 million cap hit and above this season:

Not one of the eleven netminders who carry a cap hit of $5.0 million and above have a career save percentage lower than Ondrej Pavelec’s.  That is not to say Pavelec won’t eventually reach their production levels, but the goaltenders getting paid are generally older and more seasoned—and, of course, UFA eligible. As mentioned in the Evander Kane piece, UFA years have the most value to a player because the player no longer is “restricted” from signing wherever he may choose.  A player’s UFA years are his most valuable financially and provide the player with the highest form of leverage—playing one team off against another for his services.

That digression aside, using $5.0 million as a ceiling for Pavelec’s value, then what is the floor?  Pavelec is unquestionably going to be tendered a qualifying offer this off-season, but his contract for 2012-13 will not be in and around $1.15 million.

As a starting point, let’s average the cap hits of Jonathan Quick for next season ($1.8 million) and the contract of Semyon Varlamov for next season ($2.83 million).  This total of $2.3 million seems like a reasonable starting point for Pavelec.  Quick is probably better than his contract, Varlamov is probably worse.  Pavelec probably finds himself somewhere in the middle, so a reasonable $2.3 million starting salary for his second last RFA year seems sensible.

Moving forward, using Jaroslav Halak as a barometer may fit quite well.  Halak has superior numbers but has also not logged over 45 games in a season on two occasions.  Moreover, the average annual salary continues to increase annually, so contracts signed two years later generally take that into account.  We would also be remiss if we did not point out that Halak has played in more goaltender friendly systems (Montreal and St. Louis for defensive coaches in Jacques Martin and Ken Hitchcock).  Just ask Miikka Kiprusoff how defensive coaches change your statistical output—specifically, his years playing under the offensively oriented Mike Keenan (.906 and .903 save percentages in those two seasons).

With that in mind, and with countless factors taken into account, let’s attempt to project Pavelec’s earning capacity moving forward:

Needless to say, the Jets will have an interesting off-season with Evander Kane and Ondrej Pavelec up for free agency.  Of most interest to some is the compensation these players garner from the Jets brass; however, we may learn more about the future of the franchise by observing the course of action GM Kevin Cheveldayoff takes in handling these negotiations.

**Thanks to capgeek.com for all of the contract data**

The intriguing element of Kane’s potential was the limited knowledge fans had of the 2009 fourth overall NHL Draft selection.  In usual cases, fans see their team draft a player in June and spend the remainder of the summer endlessly consuming information (both relevant and irrelevant) about him.  If the player is exceptional, the fans may luck out and catch a snippet of that particular player in the proceeding season.  If, instead, he resembles the majority of players his age, he is returned to the CHL, NCAA or Europe and followed by fans intensely for one, two or even three to four seasons.

In Evander Kane’s case, however, the British Columbia native was fairly unknown to Jets fans.  The NHL’s return to Winnipeg was only formalized at the end of May.  That left the remainder of the summer to get to know the entire Thrashers roster.  Fans did not have the luxury of two plus years to become familiar with Evander Kane; instead, they had a whole three months until training camp hit.  His goal totals, a simple yet indicative performance indicator, were more than respectable over the past two seasons (14 and 19 respectively), but just what was his ceiling?

Much has been gathered from the Jets’ season thus far; the team lacks depth and skill at forward, relies on Ondrej Pavelec significantly and has some stellar talent on the blue line.  However, one other aspect of the team has stood out most of all: Evander Kane, at 20 years old, is the team’s top forward and, arguably, top player.

So far this season, Kane has demonstrated he has a top ten NHL wrist shot, blazing speed and strength that matches up against any tough opposing defenseman.  This success (31 points in 46 games) has resulted in fan excitement but also a modicum of apprehension.  This apprehension is based upon Kane’s pending free agency.  Reassuringly, this free agency is restricted free agency which allows the Jets to match any free agent offer the former Vancouver Giant may receive on or after July 1.

While this article could point to some concern over the relationship between Jets coach Claude Noel and Evander Kane, or Kane’s reputation with the Winnipeg fan base, that is not so much the point.  Rather, the purpose of this article is to attempt to gauge Evander Kane’s value as a free agent.  More specifically, it is an attempt to estimate a realistic figure in terms of both term and salary for the potential 40-goal scorer.

(a)        Comparables

Evander Kane was drafted in 2009, as mentioned above, directly behind John Tavares, Victor Hedman and Matt Duchene.  Naturally, Tavares, a player who has also played just over two full NHL seasons, for a poor Eastern Conference squad serves as a comparable.  Importantly, at least from an analysis perspective is the fact that Tavares recently re-upped with the Islanders for a six-year, $33 million contract.  Of most concern is Tavares’s annual cap hit which is $5.5 million.

Now that we have seen Tavares’s extension, let’s examine his career production thus far:

By comparison, here are Kane’s numbers:

Tavares and Kane are comparable to the extent that they were drafted in the same year and have had a similar career course.  Their overall skill packages are both exceptional but particularly different.  Tavares is not a great skater (although his skating has improved significantly from his first season) but has tremendous hands, vision and passing skills.  Tavares is more of an east/west player, as opposed to Kane’s north/south style that allows him to utilize his speed to his and his team’s advantage.

It is hard to imagine Kane matching a contract both of the quantum and term of Tavares.  So, Kevin Cheveldayoff could easily reference Tavares as a far-fetched ceiling when sitting down with Kane’s agent, Craig Oster of Newport Sports Management.  Winnipeggers may find it interesting to note that Oster attended the University of Manitoba and graduated with a Bachelor of Commerce prior to securing his LLB (now JD) from the University of Western Ontario.

Now that we have established a ceiling to Kane’s value, at least over a four or five-year term, that leaves other comparables who are hopefully more similar in terms of both the type of player they are and their career course to this point.  The three most logical comparisons that come to mind are:

1. Logan Couture;
2. James Neal; and
3. Phil Kessel

Couture is probably the least comparable of the bunch in terms of his style of play and the fact he is now relied on as primarily a center in San Jose.  However, for comparison’s sake, it does not hurt to include him in this analysis.

Neal and Kessel, on the other hand, seem to be very reasonable comparables; both players are shoot-first, ala Kane, play wing, skate well and have terrific shots.

Let’s examine their respective statistical output through their first three NHL seasons (as Kane is currently completing his third NHL season):

Logan Couture:

**All other advanced statistical categories included were based upon a minimum of 30 games played in that particular season.  For Couture’s first season, an exception was made for the above chart and adjusted to a minimum of 20 games to provide context (albeit limited) for his performance.

James Neal:

Phil Kessel:

Click here to read the 2nd part of Richard’s analysis of Evander Kane’s fair market value.

(b)        Leverage

Before delving deeper into the contracts of the aforementioned players, it is important to note that Kane is limited in his leverage.  Over the next four seasons, notwithstanding a possible long-term extension, Kane’s contract status will be the following:

You will notice that Kane is not eligible for salary arbitration this summer.  That is because he has not yet accrued four NHL seasons; as a result, he will be eligible for arbitration after next season.

With salary arbitration not an option for Kane he has limited options in the summer of 2012:

1. Sit out;
2. Demand a trade; and
3. Sign a contract.

This limited leverage does factor into his negotiating power and is one of the portions of the CBA intended to benefit the team over the player (something that many NHL GMs have not taken advantage of).

(c)        Contracts

We analyzed comparable players and their statistical output over the same period as Kane, so let’s now delve into their post-entry level contracts:

One point that has not yet been made is the fact that both Couture and Neal experienced one season in the AHL prior to playing full-time with the Sharks and Stars respectively.  This, of course, impacts their numbers (in a positive direction) and would play a factor in any negotiation.  Conversely, both Kessel and Tavares jumped right to the NHL from the NCAA and OHL respectively.

You will notice that Kessel’s contract does not rise significantly over the course of the deal (which is also the case with Tavares); with the final two years seeing his salary drop by just under one million dollars.  The reason for this is that Kessel’s contract extends into UFA status, meaning the numbers within the contract have no bearing on his arbitration case because Kessel will not have to head to arbitration (which requires a qualifying offer of at least 100% of the previous season’s contract) as a UFA.

It is interesting to note that Couture and Neal signed for the identical cap hit; however, Neal earns $500,000 more than Couture in the final year of his contract which will result in a higher qualifying offer.  We touched on the arbitration protocol in further length this past summer as it related to Anthony Stewart.  Click here and here for further clarification as to the process.

Now, of course, we must direct the analysis to Evander Kane.  As you can see above, the term Kane’s agent will be seeking will immediately allow both parties to narrow down their possible salary figures.

(d)        Available Contract Options

Let’s now examine Evander Kane’s approximate worth on one-year, two-year, three-year and four-year deals.  We will limit the evaluation to a four year maximum duration because Kane entered the NHL as an eighteen year-old, thus making him eligible for unrestricted free agency after seven NHL seasons, or four seasons after the 2011-12 season with Winnipeg.

Kane’s numbers are very similar to James Neal’s through their first three (or two and a half) NHL seasons.  Couture’s numbers compare more favourably to Kane’s than do Neal’s.  What is interesting about Couture is that he signed his two-year post entry-level extension prior to the expiration of his entry-level contract.  This contract was somewhat akin to the dealing of the Tampa Bay Rays in baseball.  The team signed a player prior to his contract expiring (albeit a short-term contract) providing him with the security of a second NHL contract and providing the team with possible value—which it appears will be quite significant.

Looking at how Neal and Couture compare to Kane, a contract offer of two-years, $5.75 million from the Jets seems entirely reasonable.  On one hand though, the average annual salary will likely increase (last season it was $2.3 million), something Evander Kane’s agent is surely aware of.  On the other hand, the argument can be made that Couture and Neal’s numbers have been better than Kane’s.  However, as noted above, both of those players entered the NHL after a year of seasoning in the AHL.

With the average annual salary rising and the fact Kane entered the NHL as an eighteen year old, Kane’s agent will likely seek a two-year, $5.75 million contract as a floor rather than a midway point, never mind a ceiling.

This is where Kessel and Tavares come into play—with both having entered the years at 18 years of age.  Tavares is a superior player to Kane; one could argue Kessel is as well, but Kessel is more comparable in terms of style (to a point) and production.

Here are their contracts:

(e)        Projected contract(s)

There are a variety of options for Kane’s contract, but as stated earlier, we are going to cap a projection at four years (when Kane reaches UFA status).

Overall, James Neal appears to be a very applicable comparison to Evander Kane.  As a base, we used Neal’s second NHL contract in shaping Kane’s projected deal over two years ($3.05 million).  Over the last two seasons, we calculated a figure slightly below the average cap hit of Tavares and Kessel ($5.1 million) over the final two years taking Kane into unrestricted free agency.

A total contract of four-years, $16.3 million deal seems like appropriate market value for the young and upcoming Kane.  The question now is, will Kane serve those years in a Jets jersey?

**Thank you to capgeek.com for the listed salary figures and behindthenet.ca for the listed advanced statistics.**

The Illegal Curve Hockey Show normally airs Saturdays from 12-3pm on TSN 1290, but it will be airing at a special time from 8-11 am this Saturday.

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Awards

The first award discussed was the topic of MVP, which is always a tricky conversation. Drew, Richard and Ezra all agreed that Evander Kane has been the best player, but Ezra thought that Pavelec has been most valuable to the team’s success.

MVP

Ezra: “not even close, it’s Pavelec”

Richard & Drew: “I think you’re out of your mind”

“You’re talking about Ondrej Pavelec who has numbers outside the top 30 in the national hockey league”

“The goalie is always going to win more games because he’s the goalie”

Richard: “Kane has 18 goals, on pace for over 35 to 40 goals, he’s the only guy who consistently drives the play towards the net” “Kane is the guy who drives this team, he’s the best player on the team, he’s been the best player this season, there’s no question about it.”

Ez: “Which one guy do you take out of the lineup and it would have the most negative impact, if you look at what one player has had an impact on this team, Kane is in the conversation, but Pavelec has stolen more games.”

Richard: “You take Kane or Pavelec out of the lineup, who’s harder to replace?.”

Ez: “Evander Kane went seven games without a goal”

Drew: “Who would be scoring for this team, if it weren’t for Evander Kane, it doesn’t matter how good Pavelec is if nobody can score.”

The other argument made for Evander Kane was that it is easier to find a replacement goalie, than a player of Kane’s scoring ability.

Best Defenseman

Drew: “This is a tough one because of so many injuries.”

Ezra: “It’s Byfuglien or Bogosian, because of Enstroms injury”

Richard: “I agree with you, it’s probably Byfuglien because of the way he started playing later on. I would have to say Byfuglien by a small hair because of how much he can provide on the offensive end. He’s not a defensive dynamo, but I think he’s the third leading scorer on the team right now. The way he adds to the power play, and can jump into the play, I’d have to say Byfuglien.”

Drew: “I’ll agree with Richard”

Richard’s argument for Bogosian: “I think Bogosian is a great skater, good hitter, he’s learned to simplify his game and Charlie Huddy’s done a great part in that, and Bogosian has taken that upon himself. He’s played in a variety of pairings, although Stuart is his main guy, and they haven’t played together recently. He’s played very well, kept it simple, I think he’s limited chances on many nights, and he’s scored a bit. The only drawback is his ability to create offense, not only in the offensive zone, but in his own zone.”

“Byfuglien has a keen sense of where the puck needs to go, he’s cut back on the risky plays that happened in the beginning of the year.”

Report Card

Coach Noel

Ezra: “I’m going to give Coach Claude Noel a C+, because I think that he’s done a pretty good job. We’re at the halfway point of the season, the Jets are three games above .500, and a couple points out of the playoffs. When you look at how Atlanta came to Winnipeg, and how their team came together. The Jets had that terrible start, I think that Claude Noel has done a good job with transitioning the team, they had a tough road schedule at the beginning. He’s done a great job dealing with injuries. On forward, I’ve had some issue with how he’s managed some of the forward lines, I have some issues specificly with Burmistrov as of late. Overall I’ll give him a C+”

Drew: “I’m going to give him a grade of a B, for a lot of the reasons you just said. I like the way he’s been willing to mix and match (lines). He’s not being stubborn and is trying different things. I’m not crazy about some of his line combinations or burial, for lack of a better word of Alex Burmistrov. I think he’s done a good job with a lot of problems on the defensive side of the game. When the defense was riddled with injuries I think he handled that pretty well. I liked the way he handled Evander Kane at the beginning of the year when there was some growing pains. I like the way he’s managed the media and expectations in the city.”

Rich: “I’ll give him a B+. I do have the same issues as you guys mentioned. I do think his line combinations, leave much to be desired at times. I think the road record isn’t great and needs to be improved. The third drawback is I think he’s overplayed Pavelec and that will be an issue later on in the season.

What I do like about him: Special teams has improved, the underlying numbers are good. I think he manages expectations well, he manages personalities well, he doesn’t get too high and doesn’t get too low. I don’t think he gives the media too much to work with. I think the players for the most part are playing hard for him. He matches up players when he needs to. He matched the Slater line up against Ovechkin, he matches up Byfuglien & Bogosian with guys that he needs to, and he’s flexible in that regard. He also gives the hard face-off’s to Slater and those guys (who are good at face offs). He runs the bench the right way. There’s room to grow, but overall if you told me they would be in a playoff spot, I think you’d be a bit optimistic, but i think the overall job he’s done has been quite good. There has been a lot of distractions, a lot of stuff could have gone wrong. I think he’s made the team his own and has done a good job.”

GM Kevin Cheveldayoff

The guys attempted to give Kevin Cheveldayoff a grade, but determined that it has been much too soon in the GM’s tenure and instead provided commentary. Chevy has been risk averse, with logical moves that will serve the team well in building for the future. He has signed a number of players to one year deals (Wellwood, Glass, Jones), effective sent players up and down from St. John’s (Cormier, Kulda, Postma, Flood, Jaffray) and addressed the teams shortcomings with some mid season moves (Miettinen). In the next year, we’ll have the the trade deadline and free agency which will be indicators on how he is able to perform as GM. For past commentary on some of his moves & signings, check out the category “Roster Analysis“.

Readers, who do you give your misdeason awards to? Who do you think is the MVP this season? What are your thoughts on Coach Claude Noel? Sound off in the comments.

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Watch more videos from Weiss Tech Hockey on YouTube, they are a great tool for hockey coaches.

The video and analysis below was taken from this post on his site

A Detailed Analysis of the Winnipeg Jets’ Penalty Kill Forecheck and Defensive Zone Coverage Setups

In this video we walk through a detailed analysis of the Penalty Kill Systems the Winnipeg Jets are using. Remember, systems play is very subjective – everyone has their own opinions… this is my two cents worth!

Here’s a quick breakdown of what to look for:

FORECHECK:

• 1-3 Forecheck: F1 tends to commit too early, allowing the Wild defenseman to walk out from behind the net uncontested.
• F1?s Angle: Breaks my cardinal rule for trap-style forechecks – DON’T GET BEAT BEHIND YOU!
• NZ Transitions: Jets rely too heavily on picking off passes in the neutral zone, and not enough on solid angling and positioning. This won’t work as well against the better teams.

PK DEFENSIVE ZONE COVERAGE:

• Triangle +1 against Umbrella: Not a good systems match-up in my opinion. Angles are off, and it allows the opposing team’s “Quarterback” to easily pass to whomever he wants.
• Standard Box against Overload: Good systems match-up, but the Jets need to tighten up on a few things (see next few points)
• Weak-side Forward: Tends to over commit, leaving the opposing far defenseman open
• Net-front Coverage: Jets are letting a player sit right in the middle of their coverage, in front of the net
• 5 on 3: Too passive (in my opinion)

Here is your 23 man Winnipeg Jets roster with our projected lines* and defensive pairings*.

Goalies:

Ondrej Pavelec

Chris Mason

Defencemen:

Pair 1:  Tobias Enstrom, Dustin Byfuglien
Pair 2:  Mark Stuart, Zach Bogosian
Pair 3:  Johnny Oduya, Ron Hainsey

7th & 8th D-men: Randy Jones, Derek Meech (can also fill in as 14th forward)

Forwards:

Line 1:  Bryan Little, Andrew Ladd, Blake Wheeler

Line 2: Evander Kane, Mark Scheifele, Kyle Wellwood
Line 3: Brett MacLean, Alex Burmistrov,Nik Antropov
Line 4: Tanner Glass, Jim Slater, Chris Thorburn

**Updated: Patrice Cormier has been sent to the AHL and the Jets have claimed Brett MacLean off waivers from Phoenix.

13th Forward:  Tim Stapleton

*These are the projected lines and defensive pairings according to Illegal Curve, which we’ve observed throughout training camp.  Once we have the definitive list, we will make any changes (if need be).

That makes him likeable.  His play on the ice, at least thus far in training camp, makes him even more likeable.  With only one season under his belt in the Ontario Hockey League, Scheifele has surprised many with his impressive rookie tournament, solid play in the team’s intra-squad scrimmage and, of course, his four-point performance in the first NHL game (exhibition or not) in Winnipeg featuring the name Jets in 15 years.

The youngster has demonstrated excellent poise, especially off the rush.  He has soft hands, great vision and plays a mature game.  His strengths have overshadowed his weaknesses, that being strength along the boards, first step and a tendency to sometimes try a pass that may be too cute—at least for the NHL level.

All of the above is fine and dandy.  It is certainly encouraging but at the macro level there are many reasons why Scheifele should be returned to Barrie for another year playing under one of the greatest Jets of all-time, the aforementioned Dale Hawerchuk.

Quality of competition

Make no mistake; Scheifele has stood out since arriving in Winnipeg.  He has scored, he has created offense and he has done so with a certain amount of poise.  But, and this is a big but, who has he been doing this against?

Opposing team’s rookie rosters are not exactly littered with top prospects.  For every Ryan Nugent-Hopkins there are four late round draft picks looking to carve out a name for themselves before being shipped to the ECHL to pursue their battle up the chain of professional hockey.

His strong performance in the team’s intra-squad scrimmage is, well, a strong performance in an intra-squad scrimmage.  The intensity, as Ron Hainsey put it, is not exactly high.

That brings us to his brilliant performance on Tuesday evening.  The fan experience was incredible, the excitement was palpable and the celebration of the youngster’s performance, capped off by the chanting of his name was joyful.  All that said, look at the defense pairings on the ice for each of Scheifele’s four points on Tuesday.

Goal 1: Aaron Johnson-Austin Madaisky

Goal 2: Grant Clitsome-Cody Goloubef

Goal 3: Grant Clitsome-Kris Russell

Goal 4: Kris Russell-Derek Prout

Russell is a four-year NHL veteran; Clitsome has played 42 NHL games and the rest of the players few hockey people have ever heard of.  Put another way, he was not exactly playing against a defense combination of Fedor Tyutin and James Wisniewski.

Sample size is also, obviously, a factor; obvious enough that we won’t touch on it further.

Entry-level contract

Considering the team does not have Stanley Cup expectations and probably an outside chance at a playoff spot, does management want to burn a year of Scheifele’s entry-level contract (relative cost control) for a year that may be beneficial to his development but also may stunt it.  In the long haul if the team is battling for a fringe playoff spot this season, why not save Scheifele’s cost control contract for a season down the road when the team is (as the fans hope) a legitimate playoff contender.

Remember the Jets are not going to be a free spending team.  Having a certain amount of valuable cost control contracts is going to be vital to this team’s success.

World Junior Championships, another year in CHL

Scheifele has played less than 70 games in the Canadian Hockey League.  By all accounts his performance at the Canadian World Junior Camp was not anything special.  Another year under the tutelage of Hawerchuk, a full season against the opposing team’s best shutdown defenders and chance to make the Canadian World Junior team playing against the best players under 20 years old around the NHL would do wonders for his development.  If he really is that good, then his colours will show over the course of the season (larger sample size).

High expectations

Expectations are always high for a first round pick.  They are higher for a first round pick on a Canadian team.  They are even higher for a first round pick on a Canadian team that has not seen NHL hockey for fifteen years.  Catch the drift?  Can Scheifele succeed?  It is possible.  However, another season in junior will allow fans, and more importantly the Jets brass, a better idea of what true expectations should be for Scheifele.

As one fan put it on Twitter: “Scheifele: Over/under 76 goals?”

Where does he fit in?

Coach Claude Noel mentioned that the Jets do not really have size up the middle.  Scheifele is bigger than people think, but his size should not be a significant factor when it comes to whether he makes this team.  Noel said he lined up Antropov in the middle to add size and play tough matchups.  He also said he could be slid over to the right wing.  Remember the Jets have Bryan Little, Alex Burmistrov, Nikolai Antropov, Kyle Wellwood and Jim Slater up the middle.  Where does Scheifele fit in?  If it is on the top two lines, then what happens to Little or Burmistrov?  Those top two lines will result in very difficult competition.  Conversely, if he plays on the third line (even if it is employed in a scoring capacity) this will result in less ice-time and less offensive support.

Never mind the fact that the team is also poor in the face-off circle, with only Kyle Wellwood and Jim Slater proving to be anywhere above average.

All in all, Scheifele may turn into a tremendous player, if that is the case, another year of seasoning won’t hurt him.  In fact, it may help both him and the organization—a relationship fans hope lasts a long, long time.

I’ve been thinking of talent and athletes more in the last few days with news that Nikolai Zherdev, he ex of the Blue Jackets, Rangers, and Flyers, is interested in becoming a member of the Winnipeg Jets.  Dripping with talent, the former fourth overall draft pick has yet to harness the talent he has and really maximize his skill set.  Sure, he has had some productive seasons (61 points in 2007-08 with the Blue Jackets), but so much more was expected of him given his lofty draft status and natural talent that most can only dream to possess.

More on Zherdev after the jump.

Throughout the week, as news regarding Zherdev’s (alleged) desire to play in Winnipeg has come to the forefront, the general reaction has been mixed at best, and in many occasions negative towards Zherdev becoming a member of our beloved Jets.  I understand that sentiment from fans, as if there is one thing hockey fans cannot handle, it’s a player not giving maximum effort, especially one with the natural talent that Zherdev possesses.   Even with a modicum of effort, Zherdev should  be able to score 30 plus goals per season.  Watching Zherdev play in 2011-12 will probably (potentially) be as frustrating for Jets fans as watching Evgeny Davydov play was in the early 1990s.

Despite the obvious distaste that Zherdev has left in Columbus, New York, and Philadelphia the question is should the Jets pursue Zherdev?

The answer, which may be to the chagrin of many Winnipeg Jets fans is an unequivocal yes, with the caveat that it needs to be relatively risk free (read: few years).  Looking at the Winnipeg Jets roster, as we have documented many times before, the team is not dripping with an abundance of talent.  Some nice pieces, certainly.  The team has some players who should develop into top NHL players, but for the 2011-12 season, talent among the forward group is not overwhelming.  Should we expect Zherdev to come in, and be an eighty point player while carrying the team?  Of course not.  It would be naïve at this point to expect that, and unfair to Zherdev given the player that he has been thus far in his career.

Thus far in his stint as General Manager of the Winnipeg Jets, Kevin Cheveldayoff has been very prudent and logical in his decision making.  Acquiring Eric Fehr for a small price is a good example.  Same with the Blake Wheeler contract signing and terms.  As we (especially Richard) have said on The Illegal Curve Hockey Show on more than one occasion, there is no such thing as a bad one year contract.  Maybe Zherdev comes to Winnipeg, loves the cold weather because it reminds him of Mother Russia, embraces the city’s Ukrainian & Russian heritage and finally harnesses his immense talent.  Or he performs like he has in his other stints in the NHL, and plays uninspired hockey like most fans would expect.  The point is, that given the team’s current salary cap situation (space galore), the fact their talent level can be described as average, and the fact that they have a void on the right wing to start the season given Fehr’s bum shoulder, the risk in signing Zherdev would be off set by the reward possibilities.  I think a 1 year, $1.75 million dollar contract or a two year, $3.00 million dollar contract would be fiscally responsible with minimal downside.

For more on Zherdev’s interest in the Jets, and other Winnipeg Jets news, tune in to tonight’s Illegal Curve Hockey Show. 7-9 PM on Sports Radio 1290 in Winnipeg and streamed live on www.illegalcurve.com.  

The premise of this article is why would the Winnipeg Jets shop Zach Bogosian?

The Jets may lack offensive superstars, but is trading a defensive stud who has just completed his three-year entry-level contract the answer? Sure Bogosian has a lot of developing to do, but make no mistake; much of his development has already taken place in Atlanta.  There is a reason he has seen an increase in his usage against the other team’s top players over the past three seasons?

Would trading Bogosian make the team’s strength a weakness?

More on Bogosian’s impact after the jump.

The Jets have a nice base on the back-end.  The youthful mix of Enstrom, Byfuglien and Bogosian is a terrific group core moving forward.  But the Jets’ defensive depth is somewhat overrated.  This team did not perform very well defensively last season and the team does not exactly have a bunch of stellar defenders in the system.

The team’s most “ready” defensive prospects are Paul Postma and Arturs Kulda.  Both players provide certain skill sets, but neither player is projected to be a top quality top-four defender, never mind top-two defenders.

Looking forward, the Jets only have two defenders under contract for the 2013/14 season; that being Dustin Byfuglien and Mark Stuart—two (Rick Dudley) contracts that you have to wonder whether GM Kevin Cheveldayoff would have given out on his watch?

Along the same lines, Johnny Oduya, and his $3.5 million salary, come off the books at season’s end, with Ron Hainsey off the books after the following season.  Both players are overpaid but they are also better than replacement level players.   The eventual money available after those two players come off the books may well be allotted to defense, but will defensemen anywhere close to the caliber and cost of Zach Bogosian be available at that time? Not likely.

That is the main issue.  This team has a core of three young talented defenders.  What if Byfuglien regresses though?  What if Enstrom does not want to re-sign after his contract expires at the end of the 2012-13 season?  Suddenly the team’s depth wouldn’t look so hot if a stud defenseman, who played against the opposing team’s best players last season, was not in the equation.

That is also an important aspect of this analysis.  Enstrom and Byfuglien played together last season, with Bogosian shouldering the toughest minutes of the three.  That sheltered ice-time would not exist without Bogosian (assuming they acquire a package centering on an impact forward) and Enstrom and Byfuglien’s production may thereby tail off.

Trading Bogosian likely creates a bigger hole than it fills.  Besides, the Jets hold all the leverage.  Bogosian’s only leverage at this point is to hold out—a result that is not likely considering the money he’d be leaving on the table.  When was the last time an RFA sat out into the season?  Has that even happened since the lockout?

As we wrote about a few weeks back, a two-year deal seems reasonable for both parties.  Bogosian will want that deal so he can command big, big money after two seasons, when he will have arbitration eligibility (if the arbitration system remains the same under the next CBA) and will still be under 24 years old.  The Jets, on the other hand, will want Bogosian to progress at a certain rate, especially offensively.  If the NY native has not reached those levels in two-years, the Jets have the flexibility to deal him then or sign him at a rate in line with his productivity.  In any event, they will not lose him for nothing.

Trades may seem sexy and rumors even sexier but in this instance, the “sexy” thing for the Jets to do is sign the top quality defender to a deal and get ready for October 9 versus Montreal.

Even with some rumors floating around, based on the job Kevin Cheveldayoff has done thus far, the rumors are almost assuredly more fiction than fact.

But hey, why let facts get in the way of a good summer story?

With Wheeler having gone to arbitration last summer and having successfully obtained a contract of $2.2 million with the Bruins, logic may have dictated that Wheeler would not be so averse to walking down that same road once again.  Well, it appears Wheeler, his agent Matt Keator (who was interviewed on the IC Hockey Show just after the contract became public) and Jets management had different ideas.

Sure we knew Jets management wanted to avoid arbitration; in reality, every team does.  No GM, especially a first time NHL GM of a reborn franchise, wants to rip apart a player, through the arbitration argument, he hopes to build around moving forward.  That is an awkward position for everyone involved, except for probably Wheeler’s agent.

Even with all those considerations taken into account, Wheeler appeared to have the leverage to command a reasonable salary increase.

More on the Wheeler signing after the jump.

That is what makes the announcement of the terms of this contract so surprising.  The Jets were able to lockdown Wheeler for two seasons (which was reasonable term for both sides) at a cap hit of $2.55 million, or, only $350,000 more per season than his $2.2 million cap hit last season.

Think about that for a second.  Sure Wheeler was a restricted free agent (RFA), and will still be for one more season after the expiration of this deal, but the former University of Minnesota standout settled for a contract raise that was anything but considerable–in NHL terms.

In late June, we provided five comparables within our Wheeler negotiation analysis.

The five players listed were:

1. Patrik Berglund (STL)

2. Patric Hornqvist (NSH)

3. Bryan Little (WPG)

4. Kris Versteeg (FLA)

5. Jakub Voracek (PHI)

All of those five players were in fairly similar situations to Wheeler prior to signing their current deals.  In fact, the average cap hit for those five players is just about $2.65 million per season.  Taking into account Wheeler’s improved production in Atlanta (small sample taken into account) and his numbers comparing favourably to those five players and it is quite surprising the big American winger settled for a cap hit less than the average of those five players.

Kevin Cheveldayoff and the rest of Jets management did a nice negotiating job in this instance.  Whether he admits it or not, Wheeler was likely looking to avoid arbitration for a second consecutive summer and Cheveldayoff used that to his advantage.

Considering Cheveldayoff told us on July 6 (listen here) that the parties were not that close to getting a deal done, makes one wonder what the initial bargaining positions were.

Taking into account the average annual NHL salary increase and the fact Wheeler had a modestly better statistical season in 2010/11 than in 2009/10, it would have been surprising to see an arbitration award below $2.5 million. With that in mind, one has to wonder if Wheeler pushed for a contract resolution, so as to not endure the criticism and uncertainty that surrounds the arbitration process.

Of course, there is a personal element here we do not speak about often enough.  Maybe Wheeler and his agent decided there was a certain number they were comfortable with and that Wheeler was going to agree to that number for a two-year term and begin his transition to Winnipeg.  From a personal standpoint, the arbitration date was set for August 3.  The rulings comeback within 48 hours.  So, waiting until that time to strike a deal–while all the while arguing over probably $200,000 to $400,000–would have left Wheeler just over a month to move with his wife to Winnipeg, pick a house and organize everything else that comes along with such a move.

From an overall numbers perspective, the Jets probably get the “W” in this case; from a real life perspective, it appears both sides are happy.  When that is the case, Jets fans are the biggest winners.

Well, you might know that he was drafted by the Atlanta Thrashers in 2010 with the 8th overall pick and you might know that he played 74 games for the Thrashers last season as a 19-year-old, registering 6 goals and 14 assists but after that, what else do you know?

Don’t worry because Illegal Curve is here to help you.

More on Burmistrov after the jump.

Burmistrov hails from Kazan, Russia and simply oozes offensive potential. After starting his career playing for his hometown Ak Bars Russian in the Russian Junior League, Burmistrov came over as an 18-year-old and played for the Barrie Colts, where he registered 22 goals and 43 assists in 62 games while adding 17 points in 16 postseason games as Barrie reached the OHL Finals. Impressed with the slick-skating centre, former Atlanta Thrashers General Manager Rick Dudley drafted him in the top ten of the 2010 NHL Entry Draft and then subsequently signed Burmistrov to a three-year entry level contract last fall.

Burmistrov’s first season in the National Hockey League was inconsistent to say the least but he still managed to show his offensive skill at the professional level. Check out this video of Burmistrov’s highlight reel goal on Washington Capitals goalie Michel Neuvirth last November.

Burmistrov isn`t big for a center (5’11’, 175 lbs.) but he is strong on his skates and reminds me a little bit of Sergei Samsonov. However, he does have an accurate shot. Check out this video of Burmistrov picking the top shelf on Capitals goalie Semyon Varlamov (Burmistrov clearly loves playing the Capitals).

Possessing good speed and an array of one-one-one moves, Burmistrov has the potential to be a Number-1 centre in the NHL one day.

But before we start claiming that we have the second coming of Alexander Ovechkin on our hands, we have to realistically manage our expectations. Burmistrov does have a lot of growing to do as a player and is going to have to learn to play against defenseman much bigger than him. Burmistrov can be intimidated out of going into the corners to get the puck. Moreover, Burmistrov is going to have to use speed wisely as he sometimes overplays the puck and tries to do everything all by himself.

The future does look very bright for Burmistrov though. He will likely start the season centering either the second or third line and will get to play with bigger players such as Nikolai Antropov, Blake Wheeler and Eric Fehr who will give him room to skate and work his offensive magic.

The Jets have a talent here in Burmistrov but fans are going to have to be patient as he doesn’t turn 20 until October. One thing is for sure, Burmistrov’s definitely going to be fun to watch.

Bogosian is the most important signing the Jets have, but does not have arbitration rights, so the Jets and him could be in for a protracted negotiation.  That said, Karl Alzner just signed a contract for two seasons in Washington that will only help Jets management in their negotiations.

More on the players the Jets still need to sign after the jump.

Alzner does not have the experience Bogosian does, having only played 133 games through his first three seasons, but is a stay-at-home defender, so he was employed in a similar manner to Bogosian last season.  Considering Alzner signed for $1.285 million for the next two seasons (courtesy of Capgeek), Bogosian’s negotiating leverage has probably taken a fair step back.  The American rearguard will still command and almost assuredly receive more money than Alzner, as documented in our contract analysis a few weeks back, but the possibility of any sort of hold out seems more remote.  Also, remember this is only mid-July, there should be no panicking over this lack of contract until late August at the earliest.

With respect to Wheeler, there is an end date to this contract stalemate, as Wheeler is headed to arbitration in early August.  Wheeler is no stranger to arbitration, having opted for it last season with Boston.  In fact, no negotiation with Wheeler seems to be easy.  If he wins another arbitration, like he did last season, he could be on his way out of Winnipeg sometime during the season.  The Jets brass wants cost effectiveness and if no negotiation with Wheeler is going to be easy, the team may opt to turn him into another asset before he prices himself out of town or presents a personality clash with management.

Fan patience will be important in this stalemate because in reality, there is little to panic about on July 18.  If we are having this same discussion about Zach Bogosian on August 18 that may not even be cause for concern, September 18, that is a whole other story.

Jets fans just hope it does not come to that.

Ed Tait of the Winnipeg Free Press has confirmed that the Winnipeg Jets have signed C/LW Ben Maxwell, to a one-year, $715,000 contract. Read Ed Tait’s article here.

Maxwell is only 23 years old and to date has only had a cup of tea at the NHL Level (32 games, 2 points). The former member of the Kootenay Ice has decent size (6’1”) and is a creative offensive player who has averaged 50 points over the last three seasons in The American Hockey playing mainly for the Hamilton Bulldogs. Maxwell is not a physically imposing player but does alright in the physical department. Maxwell has at times looked out of place at the NHL level but it should be noted that he wasn’t given a lot of playing time with the Habs and often only received minimal fourth line minutes.

As we mentioned in our Updated Winnipeg Jets Team Depth Chart Article, Maxwell is currently the team’s 6th ranked centre and will most likely be competing with Rick Rypien, Jim Slater,Tanner Glass and Jason Gregoire for third and fourth line forward duties. It should be noted that Maxwell can play left wing and is probably higher on the Jets depth chart for that reason.

I like Maxwell’s game and I think he has a good chance of playing full-time in the NHL next year. I can see him playing 30-50 games or more for the Jets next year if he has a strong training camp and shows more offensive potential than some of the other young players currently in the system.

Firstly, let’s recap all the moves that have been made since Canada Day.  (The player’s former team is listed in parenthesis)

July 1

Jets sign UFA Defenseman Derek Meech (Detroit Red Wings) to a 1-year, two-way contract- $700,000/$105,000.

Jets sign UFA Forward Tanner Glass (Vancouver Canucks) to a 1-year contract- $750,000.

Jets sign UFA Forward Aaron Gagnon (Dallas Stars) to a 2-year contract (details not available).

July 2

Jets sign UFA Defenseman Randy Jones (Tampa Bay Lightning) to a 1-year contract- $1.15 million.

Jets sign UFA Forward Rick Rypien (Vancouver Canucks) to a 1-year contract- $700,000.

Jets sign Defenseman Mark Flood (Manitoba Moose) to a 1-year contract (details not available).

For more Jets moves and a look at the depth chart after the jump.

July 7

Jets sign UFA Left Winger Jason Gregoire (Drafted by the New York Islanders in 2007, 3^rd Round, 76^th overall) to a two-year, two-way deal (details not available)

July 8

Jets acquire RW Eric Fehr from the Washington Capitals in exchange for a 4th round pick in 2012 & forward Danick Paquette (Drafted by the Atlanta Thrashers in 2008, 3^rd Round, 64^th overall)

July 9

Jets acquire LW Kenndal McArdle (Drafted by the Florida Panthers in 2005, 1^st Round, 20^th overall) from The Florida Panthers for C Angelo Esposito (Drafted by the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2007, 1^st Round, 20^th overall).

So we now present to you Illegal Curve’s Updated Winnipeg Jets Team Depth Chart based on where we think Winnipeg’s new players will slot in:

*denotes RFA status

As you can see, Winnipeg’s Depth Chart is fairly extensive and the forward and defense lines remain far from being finalized.  Jets Head Coach Claude Noel will have most of the summer to analyze and re-analyze all the players the Jets currently have in the system so it will be interesting to see who ends up cracking the opening day roster on October 9th versus the Montreal Canadiens.

The Winnipeg Jets have swung an in-division deal, trading former 1st round choice of the Pittsburgh Penguins Angelo Esposito (20th overall, 2007,  2011-12 cap hit of $916,667 if playing in the NHL), to the Florida Panthers for Kenndal McArdle, himself a former first round choice of the Panthers (2005, 20th overall, 2011-12 NHL cap hit of $803,250).

McArdle has played 33 games for the Panthers over the past three seasons, registering 1 goal and 2 assists.

Instant Analysis: More than anything, this is a trade to see if a change of scenery can jump-start the careers of these former first round selections. So far, their NHL careers can be summed up as insignificant, but both Florida and Winnipeg are hoping that new surroundings can provide new results.

As Illegal Curve’s Richard Pollock tweeted (@ICrichyp), “McArdle is more NHL ready than Esposito and can compete for a spot right away. The Jets are creating nice competition for the bottom six forward spots.”

Fehr, from Winkler, Manitoba, is entering his 7th season in the NHL, having made his debut in the 2005-06 campaign. A right winger, Fehr had 10 goals and 10 assists in 52 games for the Capitals.

Analysis from Illegal Curve’s Richard Pollock: Eric Fehr struggled last season but had very nice offensive totals at ES the two prior seasons. Big guy, adds help on RW. Nice trade by Chevy. Fehr makes $2.2 mill in 2011/12 and is RFA the season after. So, Jets retain his rights for at least two seasons. Will be UFA after 2012/13. Fehr has not seen over 2:00 minutes per game on power play since entering NHL. The Jets could have Blake Wheeler and Eric Fehr as top two RWs. Wheeler is 6″5 and Fehr is 6″4. Nice size element.

From Illegal Curve’s Kyle Kosior: I like the Eric Fehr pick-up. Didn’t realize he was only 25. Wing is and will be a strength for Jets 2.0.

***More to come***

Here are the options listed one through six:

1. Qualify Anthony Stewart at $695,200, no teams tender him an offer sheet, and attempt to sign him to a one-year deal to play in Winnipeg.  If they could not come to an agreement, and neither party opted for salary arbitration, Stewart could sit out until a contract was reached;
2. Qualify Anthony Stewart at $695,200 and risk that another team sign him to an offer sheet between that amount and below $1,034,249—resulting in no draft pick compensation if the team does not match;
3. Qualify Anthony Stewart with him receiving an offer sheet from an opposing team of at least $1,034,249 and take the draft pick compensation (3^rd round Entry Draft selection from signing team);
4. Qualify Anthony Stewart at $695,200 and take him to salary arbitration—without the option of walking away from the arbitrator’s ruling;
5. Qualify Anthony Stewart at $695,200 and risk him taking the club to salary arbitration—with the club having the option of walking away from the arbitrator’s ruling or accepting the ruling.  The possibility always exists that the club accepts the offer and then eventually trades Stewart (as Boston did with Blake Wheeler last season); and
6. Not qualify Anthony Stewart (option they chose), without any compensation.

Option numbers 4 and 5 are the focus of this clarification piece.  After speaking to Mike Colligan of Forbes and The Hockey Writers (if you are not following Mike on Twitter, you should be), he pointed out that the minimum contract that teams can “walk-away” from is now at $1,633,131.  It originally began at $1,042,173 when the CBA was agreed to in 2005, however, just like restricted free agent compensation, it increases in accordance with the Average League Salary.

More after the jump.

Specifically, Article 12.10(a) of the CBA sets forth that a team has the ability to only “walk-away” from a contract that is above $1,042,173—now $1,633,131.

As a result, with Stewart almost certain to file for salary arbitration, the Jets were clearly scared off by the possibility, a likely possibility at that, that he would receive a salary below $1,633,131.  Without the ability to “walk-away” the Jets would have been stuck with that salary.  Whether Stewart is worth that money is an article for another day, but this should provide further clarification on the options set out above.

For even further clarification, we asked Kevin Cheveldayoff about the decision and process behind not qualifying Stewart on last night’s Illegal Curve Hockey Show on Sports Radio 1290.  Click here to listen to the show; Cheveldayoff appears at the 11:23 mark.

The contract will see him paid $4.0 million in 2011/12, or his final restricted free agent (RFA) season, followed by the next four seasons at $4.5 million per.  Beginning in 2012/13 Ladd would have been an unrestricted free agent (UFA) and open to sign with whatever team he wished.  That is what made the timing of this contract so important.

Make no mistake, Andrew Ladd’s agent rightfully waited for July 1 to hit prior to penning his client to any form of long-term agreement.  Ladd flew into Winnipeg in early June, said all the rights things to the media and held much more leverage than the Jets in this negotiation.

More on Ladd’s worth after the jump.

We have discussed his worth both in our team analysis, as well as on IC Radio and pegged his value (no pun intended) at somewhere just below $4.0 million per season.  Ladd is a second line left-winger; one who can play in all situations and brings valuable intangibles to the table.

However, it was the value of Ladd’s contemporaries in Erik Cole, Brooks Laich and Ville Leino that set the 25-year-old BC native’s market value for these contract negotiations.

Remember, Ladd was arbitration eligible and thereby dictated this process with more power than say, Zach Bogosian—a player without arbitration eligibility.  We touched on the topic of arbitration eligibility and a team’s options in yesterday’s post about Anthony Stewart.

His agent probably told Kevin Cheveldayoff that Ladd could easily declare for arbitration, which he would have had to have done by yesterday at 4:00 p.m. Winnipeg time and await an arbitrator’s ruling if the parties could not come to an agreement prior to then.  As touched on yesterday, a team has walk away rights with respect to player-elected arbitration but there was absolutely no way that the Jets would walk away from an arbitrator’s ruling regarding Ladd.  So, Ladd could have forced arbitration, walked away with at least $3.4 million in arbitration (ballpark minimum figure) and then have been a UFA the season after.

Judging by the market this past July 1, Ladd could have created a bidding war for his services as a 26-year-old forward with two Stanley Cups, good size and scoring ability.  All of these factors, along with all of Ladd’s good playing qualifies, provided ammunition for Kevin Cheveldayoff to get a deal done sooner rather than later.  Forget the symbolism though, the timing of this deal had as much to do with marketability and practicality as it did a symbol for the team’s future.

Back to the contracts signed on July 1, here are the 2010/11 statistics for the aforementioned three UFAs and their accompanying statistics.

Here are the same statistics for Andrew Ladd in comparison:

Ladd compares favourably to the three forwards listed above.  He logged bigger minutes, played against tough competition and fared quite well.  His numbers are very similar to Laich, for the most part.  You can bet that once Laich signed, Ladd’s agent was using him as a base comparable (both signed for $4.5 million per season covering UFA years).  Simply, Ladd let the market dictate his value and it worked like a charm.

Winnipeg had little in the way of leverage and that is not even taking into consideration public perception and pressure to sign the “face of the franchise.”

All in all, the Jets paid a bit more for Ladd than he is worth, but considering the circumstances, the organization did quite well.

**Thanks to Behind the Net and CapGeek**

Some readers provided commentary on the story (by the way, thank you for that).  One specifically touched on the fact that Stewart could have been tendered an offer and then signed to an offer sheet for below $1,034,249 and the Jets would not have been provided with any compensation had the organization decided not to match.

That is all true.  This restricted free agent (RFA) scale was detailed in our Zach Bogosian contract analysis piece last week.  For ease of reference, here is the RFA chart once again:

Originally, the 2005 Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) set forth that contracts below $660,000 did not require draft pick compensation.  However, the CBA has a clause within Article 10.4, which sets forth that the dollar amounts on the RFA scale will raise by the same percentage increase as the average league salary each season.  Thus, we see the NHL now have only contracts over $1,034,249 requiring draft pick compensation.

More after the jump.

Anthony Stewart was an RFA this off-season because he qualified as one under Article 10.2(a)(i)(A) of the CBA being over 24 years old with at least one professional year of experience (minimum 10 NHL games in one season).

Under Paragraph 10.2(a)(ii) the Winnipeg Jets had until the first Monday after the NHL Entry Draft to tender Stewart (amongst other restricted free agents) qualifying offers to allow the organization the right of first refusal or draft choice compensation when it came to the particular RFA.

Due to the fact that Stewart’s 2010/11 contract was $632,000 last season, under Article 10.2(a)(ii)(A) Stewart was due a qualifying offer of 110% of the prior season’s value.  This put Stewart’s qualifying offer at $695,200 for the 2011/12 season.  As mentioned in yesterday’s piece that does not mean the Jets could sign Stewart at that price; rather, that is the price the Jets needed to offer to retain his rights moving forward.

Stewart, had he been qualified, would have been qualified in the form of a one-way qualifying offer (not a two-way qualifying offer) because he played at least 60 games in the NHL last season (which satisfies Article 10.2(a)(iii) of the CBA).

If the Jets were looking to sign Stewart to a contract at approximately $825,000 or so, they could have attempted to sign him at that amount.  Alternatively, another team could have attempted to sign Stewart to an offer sheet below $1,034,249 and hope that Winnipeg would not match that contract.  If the team really wanted Stewart, they could have offered at least $1,034,249 thereby resulting in draft pick compensation of a 3^rd round selection in the 2012 NHL Entry Draft.  Of course, that is based on the assumption that a team likes him enough to pay over $1,034,248 for his services and is willing to give up the appropriate compensation.

Alternatively, a team could have signed Stewart to an offer sheet between just over $695,200 and $1,034,249 and hoped that Winnipeg did not match—thus allowing them to sign Stewart for no compensation, aside from money.

One thing is for certain; the assumption that an offer sheet would be tendered is a stretch.  Offer sheets are hardly common in this day and age and are largely looked at as a slap in the face of an opposing GM (rightly or wrongly).  Maybe, just maybe, a GM would have tested new GM Kevin Cheveldayoff in this instance, but not likely.

In any event, Winnipeg would have had the right to match any offer between $695,200 and $1,034,249 but the catch is that Article 10.3(b) of the CBA sets forth that the matching team (Winnipeg in this hypothetical) would not be able to trade the RFA (Stewart) for one year from the date it exercises its right of first refusal.

The downside of that is that the Jets could then not trade Stewart, the upside is that they have him on a relatively affordable one year deal—for a player that was their most efficient power play scorer last season (albeit in a small sample size) and the team’s sixth most efficient even strength producer per 60 minutes of ice-time.

Obviously there are issues beneath the surface in this situation that we are not privy to.  The speculation is that character/attitude is a factor but the Jets did have the option of retaining his rights without fearing an offer sheet could be tendered devoid of the possibility of draft pick compensation.

The Jets could have offered Anthony Stewart salary arbitration under Article 12.1(a) of the CBA.  This clause sets out that any player over 24 years old (Stewart is 26) with over 1 year of professional experience (which Stewart has) is eligible for salary arbitration.

Article 12.1(b) further sets out that only players who qualify as RFAs (which Stewart does), who meet the qualifications of 12.1(a) (which Stewart does) and who have not signed an Offer Sheet are eligible either to elect salary arbitration or be subjected to a team’s decision to take the player to salary arbitration.

Under Article 12.2 of the CBA, a player’s agent must elect for the player’s salary arbitration by no later than 5:00 pm New York time on July 5 (today).

A team can elect salary arbitration under Article 12.3(b)(i) of the CBA which sets out that if a Group 2 RFA has not accepted the team’s qualifying offer and has not filed for arbitration himself, the club may choose to file for salary arbitration.

Article 12.3(c) further sets out that a player can only be subject to one club-elected salary arbitration in his career.  This is even the case if a club has opted for salary arbitration but has settled the contract negotiation prior to the arbitration hearing.

Additionally, Article 12.3(d) establishes that a team cannot exercise its right to elect salary arbitration more than twice per League Year.

Based upon Article 12.4(b), the Jets had to elect for salary arbitration with Stewart by July 6 (tomorrow) at 5:00 pm New York time.

The risk with respect to club-elected salary arbitration is that the Jets, had they elected for arbitration, would not have been entitled to walk away from any award as per Article 12.10(e) of the CBA.

On the other hand, the Jets would have had walk-away rights for player-elected arbitration for any one-year deal over $1,042,173 per season or a two-year deal with the same annual salary.  In this case, the club has 48 hours to make its walk-away decision.

That covers the legal wording of the CBA.

Now, let’s boil it down to “simple” (is anything simple with the CBA?) options the Jets management had:

1. Qualify Anthony Stewart at $695,200, no teams tender him an offer sheet, and attempt to sign him to a one-year deal to play in Winnipeg.  If they could not come to an agreement, and neither party opted for salary arbitration, Stewart could sit out until a contract was reached;
2. Qualify Anthony Stewart at $695,200 and risk that another team sign him to an offer sheet between that amount and below $1,034,249—resulting in no draft pick compensation if the team does not match;
3. Qualify Anthony Stewart with him receiving an offer sheet from an opposing team of at least $1,034,249 and take the draft pick compensation (3^rd round Entry Draft selection from signing team);
4. Qualify Anthony Stewart at $695,200 and take him to salary arbitration—without the option of walking away from the arbitrator’s ruling;
5. Qualify Anthony Stewart at $695,200 and risk him taking the club to salary arbitration—with the club having the option of walking away from the arbitrator’s ruling or accepting the ruling.  The possibility always exists that the club accepts the offer and then eventually trades Stewart (as Boston did with Blake Wheeler last season); and
6. Not qualify Anthony Stewart (option they chose), without any compensation.

Of the options above, choice 6 was that of least resistance.  Maybe the team wanted a clean break.  Maybe the team wanted to let Stewart get a head start on negotiating with another team.  Regardless, it appears they had options and without any assurance that a team would sign Stewart to an offer sheet below $1,034,249, it appears they let an asset (more valuable asset than he is given credit for), get away for free.

Jets fans should be happy that Kevin Cheveldayoff and company did not jump into the free agent madness.  This team is building slowly (three to five year buffer with all the season tickets already sold) and need not rush a rebuilding plan.  Never mind the fact that there was little, if any, value found during the first few days of free agency.  Most general managers cannot help themselves and tend to make at least one long-lasting mistake, the Jets brass did not do that, and for that fans should be thankful.

One more aside, no need to complain about all these “Moose signings”.  For one, the team is adding depth on the roster and its AHL roster.  The brass is familiar with these players and not one of them will crack the top nine forward corps or top four defense corps.  Furthermore, no contracts are long term so as to restrict the team’s cap flexibility down the line.

With that said, let’s focus on Anthony Stewart and the Jets’ decision not to tender him a qualifying offer.  More importantly, why has this lack of a qualifying offer not received any attention?

More after the jump.

Anthony Stewart was a player we thought would re-sign with the club at an approximate value of $825,000 per season.  The Jets ended up not qualifying him last week and he subsequently hit the free agent market and was signed by Jim Rutherford and the Hurricanes for two seasons at $1.8 million, or $900,000 per season.

Rutherford clearly liked what he saw in Stewart who has played the entirety of his NHL career (185 games) in the Southeast Division with both Florida and Atlanta.  Rutherford likely saw a 26-year-old big forward with some upside and a cost so affordable that it limited any risk.   The minimum NHL salary for next season will be $525,000 and Stewart signed for only $375,000 more than that per season.  Moreover, Stewart will be 27 after one year of his deal, so Carolina is actually buying out one of his UFA years within that contract.

Stewart was a restricted free agent (RFA) this summer and to retain his rights, the Jets needed to qualify him at just under $700,000.  That does not mean they could sign him at that rate, but they could retain his rights—meaning he could not sign with another team without the applicable draft compensation.

Was it worth it for the Jets to let a 26-year-old forward leave town for nothing?  Surely he provides more value than not; last season the big (6’3, 220 pounds) winger posted 14 goals and 25 assists in 80 games.   He moves very well for his size and is physical (98 hits—219^th in NHL).

While it has been unspoken, it appears that Stewart’s work ethic may have been a major factor in the club’s decision not to bring Stewart to Winnipeg.  The Jets brass has made it clear that character goes a long way and if they thought that was an issue (again, that is speculation not fact) they may have thought it was better to not deal with that perceived headache and, more importantly, stay true to their word.

The question then becomes, why not qualify Stewart and then sign him to a reasonable contract (between $800,000 and $900,000—hardly a lot in this NHL) then look to deal him.  If you sign him to a one-year deal, which was probably preferable for Stewart as he was set to become a UFA in a year’s time, you have the summer to look to trade him for anything (even a low draft pick).  If the team could not trade him for even a low draft pick, the option of a buy-out existed as well.

Considering his size, speed and modest scoring ability, it is difficult to think that Stewart would not have turned into at least a fourth round pick or below.

Sure those picks have little value, but little value is better than no value.