Just three days after I wrote an article for Illegal Curve titled “Why hasn’t Evander Kane signed yet?” and literally minutes before the NHL’s Collective Bargaining Agreement was set to expire, the Winnipeg Jets announced late Saturday night (around 10:00 pm CST) that they had signed Evander Kane to a six-year, $31.5 million contract, ending weeks and weeks of conjecture and speculation.

Kane’s multi-year deal carries an annual cap hit of $5.25 million dollars and now makes him the highest player on the team (Tobias Enstrom will make $3.75 million this season, but when his five-year contract extension begins in 2013’14, he will make an average of $5.75 million dollars, thus becoming the highest paid player on the team)

Why this is a good signing for the Winnipeg Jets

Lock up your best young forward for the next six years- It is undeniable that Evander Kane is the most talented forward on the Jets. Kane has the tools that make coaches gush; he’s lightning quick, he possesses a tremendous shot and he goes hard to the net. Kane is coming off a career season in Winnipeg (30 goals, 27 assists, 57 points in 74 games) and is on the cusp of being a 40+/season goal scorer. By signing Kane to a six-year deal, Winnipeg ensures that they get Kane for arguably the best part of his career. With this deal, Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff also gets Kane for two of his UFA-eligible years.

Show that world class talent wants to play (and stay) in Winnipeg- Everyone has heard the ridiculous criticism directed towards the city of Winnipeg over the years. “It’s too cold”, “It’s too small”, “Players don’t want to play there”. Well, now that Kane, Tobias Enstrom (5 years) and Ondrej Pavelec (5 years) have signed long-term contracts to stay in Winnipeg, the Jets have shown that players DO want to play in Winnipeg and have much admiration for the city. Kane exemplifies this best as there have been countless rumours that he doesn’t like playing here.

Solidify a core group of players- The Jets now have five players under contract for the next four years: Kane, Andrew Ladd (4 years), Dustin Byfuglien (4 years), Tobias Enstrom (5 years) and Ondrej Pavelec (5 years). Signing Kane gives the Jets a bonafide scoring winger to go along with a talented group of veteran players. The next “core group” signings on the docket for Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff will be Zach Bogosian and Blake Wheeler, who are both in the final year of two-year contracts signed last summer. It is clear that Evander Kane is the key piece of this core group and signing him will help help keep Bogo and Wheeler here as well.

Why this is a bad signing for the Winnipeg Jets

Kane waited until the last possible minute to sign this deal- On Saturday’s Illegal Curve Hockey Show we were discussing Kane’s contract discussion and neither Drew, Richard or myself thought that Kane was going to sign on Saturday. And why would we? After offering Kane a six-year, $29 million dollar deal back in July, two months passed with basically no indication that Kane was prepared to sign with the Jets. It is somewhat disconcerting that Kane waited until September 15th to sign this contract as it leaves the impression that he may have been exploring other options or might not be genuine in his desire to be in Winnipeg.

Winnipeg now has $57,243,959 committed for the 2012’13 NHL season- According to capgeek.com, the Jets have $12,956,042 of cap space remaining after the Kane signing which ranks them 20th in terms of Salary Cap Payroll. Kane’s cap hit of $5.25 million is not cheap and puts him in an elite group of young forwards with the likes of Phil Kessel of the Toronto Maple Leafs ($5.4 million cap hit) and John Tavares of the New York Islanders ($5.5 million cap hit) The point here is that even though signing Kane is good, it has come at a cost. Because the Jets are in the development stage of the hockey team cycle, they still want to be a lower spending team-which they currently are- but because of the uncertainty surrounding the NHL lockout, the Jets may have to trim some payroll later this season.

Kane is a limited offensive player- Evander Kane has size and skill in abundance but he has still not developed into a complete NHL player. And yes, I know he is still 20 years old but in order for him to live up to the 6-year, $31.5 million contract he has just signed, he is going to have to turn into more than just a one trick pony. The reality is that Kane does not have a playmaking element to his game or a significant defensive component to his game and that will have to change before my opinion changes.

For Illegal Curve, I’m Ezra Ginsburg.

Follow Ezzy on Twitter @ICEzzyG

The premise of this article is why would the Winnipeg Jets shop Zach Bogosian?

The Jets may lack offensive superstars, but is trading a defensive stud who has just completed his three-year entry-level contract the answer? Sure Bogosian has a lot of developing to do, but make no mistake; much of his development has already taken place in Atlanta.  There is a reason he has seen an increase in his usage against the other team’s top players over the past three seasons?

Would trading Bogosian make the team’s strength a weakness?

More on Bogosian’s impact after the jump.

The Jets have a nice base on the back-end.  The youthful mix of Enstrom, Byfuglien and Bogosian is a terrific group core moving forward.  But the Jets’ defensive depth is somewhat overrated.  This team did not perform very well defensively last season and the team does not exactly have a bunch of stellar defenders in the system.

The team’s most “ready” defensive prospects are Paul Postma and Arturs Kulda.  Both players provide certain skill sets, but neither player is projected to be a top quality top-four defender, never mind top-two defenders.

Looking forward, the Jets only have two defenders under contract for the 2013/14 season; that being Dustin Byfuglien and Mark Stuart—two (Rick Dudley) contracts that you have to wonder whether GM Kevin Cheveldayoff would have given out on his watch?

Along the same lines, Johnny Oduya, and his $3.5 million salary, come off the books at season’s end, with Ron Hainsey off the books after the following season.  Both players are overpaid but they are also better than replacement level players.   The eventual money available after those two players come off the books may well be allotted to defense, but will defensemen anywhere close to the caliber and cost of Zach Bogosian be available at that time? Not likely.

That is the main issue.  This team has a core of three young talented defenders.  What if Byfuglien regresses though?  What if Enstrom does not want to re-sign after his contract expires at the end of the 2012-13 season?  Suddenly the team’s depth wouldn’t look so hot if a stud defenseman, who played against the opposing team’s best players last season, was not in the equation.

That is also an important aspect of this analysis.  Enstrom and Byfuglien played together last season, with Bogosian shouldering the toughest minutes of the three.  That sheltered ice-time would not exist without Bogosian (assuming they acquire a package centering on an impact forward) and Enstrom and Byfuglien’s production may thereby tail off.

Trading Bogosian likely creates a bigger hole than it fills.  Besides, the Jets hold all the leverage.  Bogosian’s only leverage at this point is to hold out—a result that is not likely considering the money he’d be leaving on the table.  When was the last time an RFA sat out into the season?  Has that even happened since the lockout?

As we wrote about a few weeks back, a two-year deal seems reasonable for both parties.  Bogosian will want that deal so he can command big, big money after two seasons, when he will have arbitration eligibility (if the arbitration system remains the same under the next CBA) and will still be under 24 years old.  The Jets, on the other hand, will want Bogosian to progress at a certain rate, especially offensively.  If the NY native has not reached those levels in two-years, the Jets have the flexibility to deal him then or sign him at a rate in line with his productivity.  In any event, they will not lose him for nothing.

Trades may seem sexy and rumors even sexier but in this instance, the “sexy” thing for the Jets to do is sign the top quality defender to a deal and get ready for October 9 versus Montreal.

Even with some rumors floating around, based on the job Kevin Cheveldayoff has done thus far, the rumors are almost assuredly more fiction than fact.

But hey, why let facts get in the way of a good summer story?

With Wheeler having gone to arbitration last summer and having successfully obtained a contract of $2.2 million with the Bruins, logic may have dictated that Wheeler would not be so averse to walking down that same road once again.  Well, it appears Wheeler, his agent Matt Keator (who was interviewed on the IC Hockey Show just after the contract became public) and Jets management had different ideas.

Sure we knew Jets management wanted to avoid arbitration; in reality, every team does.  No GM, especially a first time NHL GM of a reborn franchise, wants to rip apart a player, through the arbitration argument, he hopes to build around moving forward.  That is an awkward position for everyone involved, except for probably Wheeler’s agent.

Even with all those considerations taken into account, Wheeler appeared to have the leverage to command a reasonable salary increase.

More on the Wheeler signing after the jump.

That is what makes the announcement of the terms of this contract so surprising.  The Jets were able to lockdown Wheeler for two seasons (which was reasonable term for both sides) at a cap hit of $2.55 million, or, only $350,000 more per season than his $2.2 million cap hit last season.

Think about that for a second.  Sure Wheeler was a restricted free agent (RFA), and will still be for one more season after the expiration of this deal, but the former University of Minnesota standout settled for a contract raise that was anything but considerable–in NHL terms.

In late June, we provided five comparables within our Wheeler negotiation analysis.

The five players listed were:

1. Patrik Berglund (STL)

2. Patric Hornqvist (NSH)

3. Bryan Little (WPG)

4. Kris Versteeg (FLA)

5. Jakub Voracek (PHI)

All of those five players were in fairly similar situations to Wheeler prior to signing their current deals.  In fact, the average cap hit for those five players is just about $2.65 million per season.  Taking into account Wheeler’s improved production in Atlanta (small sample taken into account) and his numbers comparing favourably to those five players and it is quite surprising the big American winger settled for a cap hit less than the average of those five players.

Kevin Cheveldayoff and the rest of Jets management did a nice negotiating job in this instance.  Whether he admits it or not, Wheeler was likely looking to avoid arbitration for a second consecutive summer and Cheveldayoff used that to his advantage.

Considering Cheveldayoff told us on July 6 (listen here) that the parties were not that close to getting a deal done, makes one wonder what the initial bargaining positions were.

Taking into account the average annual NHL salary increase and the fact Wheeler had a modestly better statistical season in 2010/11 than in 2009/10, it would have been surprising to see an arbitration award below $2.5 million. With that in mind, one has to wonder if Wheeler pushed for a contract resolution, so as to not endure the criticism and uncertainty that surrounds the arbitration process.

Of course, there is a personal element here we do not speak about often enough.  Maybe Wheeler and his agent decided there was a certain number they were comfortable with and that Wheeler was going to agree to that number for a two-year term and begin his transition to Winnipeg.  From a personal standpoint, the arbitration date was set for August 3.  The rulings comeback within 48 hours.  So, waiting until that time to strike a deal–while all the while arguing over probably $200,000 to $400,000–would have left Wheeler just over a month to move with his wife to Winnipeg, pick a house and organize everything else that comes along with such a move.

From an overall numbers perspective, the Jets probably get the “W” in this case; from a real life perspective, it appears both sides are happy.  When that is the case, Jets fans are the biggest winners.

Bogosian is the most important signing the Jets have, but does not have arbitration rights, so the Jets and him could be in for a protracted negotiation.  That said, Karl Alzner just signed a contract for two seasons in Washington that will only help Jets management in their negotiations.

More on the players the Jets still need to sign after the jump.

Alzner does not have the experience Bogosian does, having only played 133 games through his first three seasons, but is a stay-at-home defender, so he was employed in a similar manner to Bogosian last season.  Considering Alzner signed for $1.285 million for the next two seasons (courtesy of Capgeek), Bogosian’s negotiating leverage has probably taken a fair step back.  The American rearguard will still command and almost assuredly receive more money than Alzner, as documented in our contract analysis a few weeks back, but the possibility of any sort of hold out seems more remote.  Also, remember this is only mid-July, there should be no panicking over this lack of contract until late August at the earliest.

With respect to Wheeler, there is an end date to this contract stalemate, as Wheeler is headed to arbitration in early August.  Wheeler is no stranger to arbitration, having opted for it last season with Boston.  In fact, no negotiation with Wheeler seems to be easy.  If he wins another arbitration, like he did last season, he could be on his way out of Winnipeg sometime during the season.  The Jets brass wants cost effectiveness and if no negotiation with Wheeler is going to be easy, the team may opt to turn him into another asset before he prices himself out of town or presents a personality clash with management.

Fan patience will be important in this stalemate because in reality, there is little to panic about on July 18.  If we are having this same discussion about Zach Bogosian on August 18 that may not even be cause for concern, September 18, that is a whole other story.

Jets fans just hope it does not come to that.

Ed Tait of the Winnipeg Free Press has confirmed that the Winnipeg Jets have signed C/LW Ben Maxwell, to a one-year, $715,000 contract. Read Ed Tait’s article here.

Maxwell is only 23 years old and to date has only had a cup of tea at the NHL Level (32 games, 2 points). The former member of the Kootenay Ice has decent size (6’1”) and is a creative offensive player who has averaged 50 points over the last three seasons in The American Hockey playing mainly for the Hamilton Bulldogs. Maxwell is not a physically imposing player but does alright in the physical department. Maxwell has at times looked out of place at the NHL level but it should be noted that he wasn’t given a lot of playing time with the Habs and often only received minimal fourth line minutes.

As we mentioned in our Updated Winnipeg Jets Team Depth Chart Article, Maxwell is currently the team’s 6th ranked centre and will most likely be competing with Rick Rypien, Jim Slater,Tanner Glass and Jason Gregoire for third and fourth line forward duties. It should be noted that Maxwell can play left wing and is probably higher on the Jets depth chart for that reason.

I like Maxwell’s game and I think he has a good chance of playing full-time in the NHL next year. I can see him playing 30-50 games or more for the Jets next year if he has a strong training camp and shows more offensive potential than some of the other young players currently in the system.

Here are the options listed one through six:

1. Qualify Anthony Stewart at $695,200, no teams tender him an offer sheet, and attempt to sign him to a one-year deal to play in Winnipeg.  If they could not come to an agreement, and neither party opted for salary arbitration, Stewart could sit out until a contract was reached;
2. Qualify Anthony Stewart at $695,200 and risk that another team sign him to an offer sheet between that amount and below $1,034,249—resulting in no draft pick compensation if the team does not match;
3. Qualify Anthony Stewart with him receiving an offer sheet from an opposing team of at least $1,034,249 and take the draft pick compensation (3^rd round Entry Draft selection from signing team);
4. Qualify Anthony Stewart at $695,200 and take him to salary arbitration—without the option of walking away from the arbitrator’s ruling;
5. Qualify Anthony Stewart at $695,200 and risk him taking the club to salary arbitration—with the club having the option of walking away from the arbitrator’s ruling or accepting the ruling.  The possibility always exists that the club accepts the offer and then eventually trades Stewart (as Boston did with Blake Wheeler last season); and
6. Not qualify Anthony Stewart (option they chose), without any compensation.

Option numbers 4 and 5 are the focus of this clarification piece.  After speaking to Mike Colligan of Forbes and The Hockey Writers (if you are not following Mike on Twitter, you should be), he pointed out that the minimum contract that teams can “walk-away” from is now at $1,633,131.  It originally began at $1,042,173 when the CBA was agreed to in 2005, however, just like restricted free agent compensation, it increases in accordance with the Average League Salary.

More after the jump.

Specifically, Article 12.10(a) of the CBA sets forth that a team has the ability to only “walk-away” from a contract that is above $1,042,173—now $1,633,131.

As a result, with Stewart almost certain to file for salary arbitration, the Jets were clearly scared off by the possibility, a likely possibility at that, that he would receive a salary below $1,633,131.  Without the ability to “walk-away” the Jets would have been stuck with that salary.  Whether Stewart is worth that money is an article for another day, but this should provide further clarification on the options set out above.

For even further clarification, we asked Kevin Cheveldayoff about the decision and process behind not qualifying Stewart on last night’s Illegal Curve Hockey Show on Sports Radio 1290.  Click here to listen to the show; Cheveldayoff appears at the 11:23 mark.

The contract will see him paid $4.0 million in 2011/12, or his final restricted free agent (RFA) season, followed by the next four seasons at $4.5 million per.  Beginning in 2012/13 Ladd would have been an unrestricted free agent (UFA) and open to sign with whatever team he wished.  That is what made the timing of this contract so important.

Make no mistake, Andrew Ladd’s agent rightfully waited for July 1 to hit prior to penning his client to any form of long-term agreement.  Ladd flew into Winnipeg in early June, said all the rights things to the media and held much more leverage than the Jets in this negotiation.

More on Ladd’s worth after the jump.

We have discussed his worth both in our team analysis, as well as on IC Radio and pegged his value (no pun intended) at somewhere just below $4.0 million per season.  Ladd is a second line left-winger; one who can play in all situations and brings valuable intangibles to the table.

However, it was the value of Ladd’s contemporaries in Erik Cole, Brooks Laich and Ville Leino that set the 25-year-old BC native’s market value for these contract negotiations.

Remember, Ladd was arbitration eligible and thereby dictated this process with more power than say, Zach Bogosian—a player without arbitration eligibility.  We touched on the topic of arbitration eligibility and a team’s options in yesterday’s post about Anthony Stewart.

His agent probably told Kevin Cheveldayoff that Ladd could easily declare for arbitration, which he would have had to have done by yesterday at 4:00 p.m. Winnipeg time and await an arbitrator’s ruling if the parties could not come to an agreement prior to then.  As touched on yesterday, a team has walk away rights with respect to player-elected arbitration but there was absolutely no way that the Jets would walk away from an arbitrator’s ruling regarding Ladd.  So, Ladd could have forced arbitration, walked away with at least $3.4 million in arbitration (ballpark minimum figure) and then have been a UFA the season after.

Judging by the market this past July 1, Ladd could have created a bidding war for his services as a 26-year-old forward with two Stanley Cups, good size and scoring ability.  All of these factors, along with all of Ladd’s good playing qualifies, provided ammunition for Kevin Cheveldayoff to get a deal done sooner rather than later.  Forget the symbolism though, the timing of this deal had as much to do with marketability and practicality as it did a symbol for the team’s future.

Back to the contracts signed on July 1, here are the 2010/11 statistics for the aforementioned three UFAs and their accompanying statistics.

Here are the same statistics for Andrew Ladd in comparison:

Ladd compares favourably to the three forwards listed above.  He logged bigger minutes, played against tough competition and fared quite well.  His numbers are very similar to Laich, for the most part.  You can bet that once Laich signed, Ladd’s agent was using him as a base comparable (both signed for $4.5 million per season covering UFA years).  Simply, Ladd let the market dictate his value and it worked like a charm.

Winnipeg had little in the way of leverage and that is not even taking into consideration public perception and pressure to sign the “face of the franchise.”

All in all, the Jets paid a bit more for Ladd than he is worth, but considering the circumstances, the organization did quite well.

**Thanks to Behind the Net and CapGeek**

Some readers provided commentary on the story (by the way, thank you for that).  One specifically touched on the fact that Stewart could have been tendered an offer and then signed to an offer sheet for below $1,034,249 and the Jets would not have been provided with any compensation had the organization decided not to match.

That is all true.  This restricted free agent (RFA) scale was detailed in our Zach Bogosian contract analysis piece last week.  For ease of reference, here is the RFA chart once again:

Originally, the 2005 Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) set forth that contracts below $660,000 did not require draft pick compensation.  However, the CBA has a clause within Article 10.4, which sets forth that the dollar amounts on the RFA scale will raise by the same percentage increase as the average league salary each season.  Thus, we see the NHL now have only contracts over $1,034,249 requiring draft pick compensation.

More after the jump.

Anthony Stewart was an RFA this off-season because he qualified as one under Article 10.2(a)(i)(A) of the CBA being over 24 years old with at least one professional year of experience (minimum 10 NHL games in one season).

Under Paragraph 10.2(a)(ii) the Winnipeg Jets had until the first Monday after the NHL Entry Draft to tender Stewart (amongst other restricted free agents) qualifying offers to allow the organization the right of first refusal or draft choice compensation when it came to the particular RFA.

Due to the fact that Stewart’s 2010/11 contract was $632,000 last season, under Article 10.2(a)(ii)(A) Stewart was due a qualifying offer of 110% of the prior season’s value.  This put Stewart’s qualifying offer at $695,200 for the 2011/12 season.  As mentioned in yesterday’s piece that does not mean the Jets could sign Stewart at that price; rather, that is the price the Jets needed to offer to retain his rights moving forward.

Stewart, had he been qualified, would have been qualified in the form of a one-way qualifying offer (not a two-way qualifying offer) because he played at least 60 games in the NHL last season (which satisfies Article 10.2(a)(iii) of the CBA).

If the Jets were looking to sign Stewart to a contract at approximately $825,000 or so, they could have attempted to sign him at that amount.  Alternatively, another team could have attempted to sign Stewart to an offer sheet below $1,034,249 and hope that Winnipeg would not match that contract.  If the team really wanted Stewart, they could have offered at least $1,034,249 thereby resulting in draft pick compensation of a 3^rd round selection in the 2012 NHL Entry Draft.  Of course, that is based on the assumption that a team likes him enough to pay over $1,034,248 for his services and is willing to give up the appropriate compensation.

Alternatively, a team could have signed Stewart to an offer sheet between just over $695,200 and $1,034,249 and hoped that Winnipeg did not match—thus allowing them to sign Stewart for no compensation, aside from money.

One thing is for certain; the assumption that an offer sheet would be tendered is a stretch.  Offer sheets are hardly common in this day and age and are largely looked at as a slap in the face of an opposing GM (rightly or wrongly).  Maybe, just maybe, a GM would have tested new GM Kevin Cheveldayoff in this instance, but not likely.

In any event, Winnipeg would have had the right to match any offer between $695,200 and $1,034,249 but the catch is that Article 10.3(b) of the CBA sets forth that the matching team (Winnipeg in this hypothetical) would not be able to trade the RFA (Stewart) for one year from the date it exercises its right of first refusal.

The downside of that is that the Jets could then not trade Stewart, the upside is that they have him on a relatively affordable one year deal—for a player that was their most efficient power play scorer last season (albeit in a small sample size) and the team’s sixth most efficient even strength producer per 60 minutes of ice-time.

Obviously there are issues beneath the surface in this situation that we are not privy to.  The speculation is that character/attitude is a factor but the Jets did have the option of retaining his rights without fearing an offer sheet could be tendered devoid of the possibility of draft pick compensation.

The Jets could have offered Anthony Stewart salary arbitration under Article 12.1(a) of the CBA.  This clause sets out that any player over 24 years old (Stewart is 26) with over 1 year of professional experience (which Stewart has) is eligible for salary arbitration.

Article 12.1(b) further sets out that only players who qualify as RFAs (which Stewart does), who meet the qualifications of 12.1(a) (which Stewart does) and who have not signed an Offer Sheet are eligible either to elect salary arbitration or be subjected to a team’s decision to take the player to salary arbitration.

Under Article 12.2 of the CBA, a player’s agent must elect for the player’s salary arbitration by no later than 5:00 pm New York time on July 5 (today).

A team can elect salary arbitration under Article 12.3(b)(i) of the CBA which sets out that if a Group 2 RFA has not accepted the team’s qualifying offer and has not filed for arbitration himself, the club may choose to file for salary arbitration.

Article 12.3(c) further sets out that a player can only be subject to one club-elected salary arbitration in his career.  This is even the case if a club has opted for salary arbitration but has settled the contract negotiation prior to the arbitration hearing.

Additionally, Article 12.3(d) establishes that a team cannot exercise its right to elect salary arbitration more than twice per League Year.

Based upon Article 12.4(b), the Jets had to elect for salary arbitration with Stewart by July 6 (tomorrow) at 5:00 pm New York time.

The risk with respect to club-elected salary arbitration is that the Jets, had they elected for arbitration, would not have been entitled to walk away from any award as per Article 12.10(e) of the CBA.

On the other hand, the Jets would have had walk-away rights for player-elected arbitration for any one-year deal over $1,042,173 per season or a two-year deal with the same annual salary.  In this case, the club has 48 hours to make its walk-away decision.

That covers the legal wording of the CBA.

Now, let’s boil it down to “simple” (is anything simple with the CBA?) options the Jets management had:

1. Qualify Anthony Stewart at $695,200, no teams tender him an offer sheet, and attempt to sign him to a one-year deal to play in Winnipeg.  If they could not come to an agreement, and neither party opted for salary arbitration, Stewart could sit out until a contract was reached;
2. Qualify Anthony Stewart at $695,200 and risk that another team sign him to an offer sheet between that amount and below $1,034,249—resulting in no draft pick compensation if the team does not match;
3. Qualify Anthony Stewart with him receiving an offer sheet from an opposing team of at least $1,034,249 and take the draft pick compensation (3^rd round Entry Draft selection from signing team);
4. Qualify Anthony Stewart at $695,200 and take him to salary arbitration—without the option of walking away from the arbitrator’s ruling;
5. Qualify Anthony Stewart at $695,200 and risk him taking the club to salary arbitration—with the club having the option of walking away from the arbitrator’s ruling or accepting the ruling.  The possibility always exists that the club accepts the offer and then eventually trades Stewart (as Boston did with Blake Wheeler last season); and
6. Not qualify Anthony Stewart (option they chose), without any compensation.

Of the options above, choice 6 was that of least resistance.  Maybe the team wanted a clean break.  Maybe the team wanted to let Stewart get a head start on negotiating with another team.  Regardless, it appears they had options and without any assurance that a team would sign Stewart to an offer sheet below $1,034,249, it appears they let an asset (more valuable asset than he is given credit for), get away for free.

Jets fans should be happy that Kevin Cheveldayoff and company did not jump into the free agent madness.  This team is building slowly (three to five year buffer with all the season tickets already sold) and need not rush a rebuilding plan.  Never mind the fact that there was little, if any, value found during the first few days of free agency.  Most general managers cannot help themselves and tend to make at least one long-lasting mistake, the Jets brass did not do that, and for that fans should be thankful.

One more aside, no need to complain about all these “Moose signings”.  For one, the team is adding depth on the roster and its AHL roster.  The brass is familiar with these players and not one of them will crack the top nine forward corps or top four defense corps.  Furthermore, no contracts are long term so as to restrict the team’s cap flexibility down the line.

With that said, let’s focus on Anthony Stewart and the Jets’ decision not to tender him a qualifying offer.  More importantly, why has this lack of a qualifying offer not received any attention?

More after the jump.

Anthony Stewart was a player we thought would re-sign with the club at an approximate value of $825,000 per season.  The Jets ended up not qualifying him last week and he subsequently hit the free agent market and was signed by Jim Rutherford and the Hurricanes for two seasons at $1.8 million, or $900,000 per season.

Rutherford clearly liked what he saw in Stewart who has played the entirety of his NHL career (185 games) in the Southeast Division with both Florida and Atlanta.  Rutherford likely saw a 26-year-old big forward with some upside and a cost so affordable that it limited any risk.   The minimum NHL salary for next season will be $525,000 and Stewart signed for only $375,000 more than that per season.  Moreover, Stewart will be 27 after one year of his deal, so Carolina is actually buying out one of his UFA years within that contract.

Stewart was a restricted free agent (RFA) this summer and to retain his rights, the Jets needed to qualify him at just under $700,000.  That does not mean they could sign him at that rate, but they could retain his rights—meaning he could not sign with another team without the applicable draft compensation.

Was it worth it for the Jets to let a 26-year-old forward leave town for nothing?  Surely he provides more value than not; last season the big (6’3, 220 pounds) winger posted 14 goals and 25 assists in 80 games.   He moves very well for his size and is physical (98 hits—219^th in NHL).

While it has been unspoken, it appears that Stewart’s work ethic may have been a major factor in the club’s decision not to bring Stewart to Winnipeg.  The Jets brass has made it clear that character goes a long way and if they thought that was an issue (again, that is speculation not fact) they may have thought it was better to not deal with that perceived headache and, more importantly, stay true to their word.

The question then becomes, why not qualify Stewart and then sign him to a reasonable contract (between $800,000 and $900,000—hardly a lot in this NHL) then look to deal him.  If you sign him to a one-year deal, which was probably preferable for Stewart as he was set to become a UFA in a year’s time, you have the summer to look to trade him for anything (even a low draft pick).  If the team could not trade him for even a low draft pick, the option of a buy-out existed as well.

Considering his size, speed and modest scoring ability, it is difficult to think that Stewart would not have turned into at least a fourth round pick or below.

Sure those picks have little value, but little value is better than no value.

The New York State native is 20 years old, a beautiful skater, powerful hitter and a good puck mover.  There is a reason Bogosian was the 3^rd overall selection in the 2008 NHL Entry Draft behind the two most sought after restricted free agents (RFAs) this off-season: Steven Stamkos and Drew Doughty.

Rumour has it the Flyers are considering tendering an offer sheet to the former 50 goal scorer Stamkos.  Interestingly, much less has been reported about a possible offer sheet to Doughty, but the risk will be present with Doughty if the former Canadian Olympian hits July 1^st without a new contract.

While the focus of the 2008 Draft was and continues to be Stamkos and Doughty, let’s take a closer look at Zach Bogosian.

More on Bogosian after the jump.

Bogosian clearly hasn’t been in the class of the aforementioned players but at 20 years old, and having just completed his entry-level contract, is he not a prime candidate for an offer sheet?

What’s more, the Winnipeg franchise will apparently have an internal budget set for the 2010/11 (something Tampa Bay and Los Angeles may not have).  In saying that, we are not assuming the Jets would not match an offer sheet; in fact, Kevin Cheveldayoff alluded to that being the likely outcome on the IC Hockey Show a few weeks back.  However, Cheveldayoff also spoke about the inflationary nature of offer sheets and one has to wonder if he’d be tempted to take the compensation and continue the team’s rebuild in a cost effective manner.

For Bogosian to receive an offer sheet, a team would have to sacrifice the following compensation based upon the financial terms of the contract (information courtesy of NHL.com):

One aspect of offer sheets people fail to realize is that the draft picks involved in any transaction must be the draft picks of the team signing the offer sheet.  Meaning, a team that has traded its first round draft pick for the 2012 NHL Entry Draft cannot sign a player to an offer sheet over $3,134,088 because they do not have the necessary compensation available.  If that team acquires another first round pick (even a higher pick) that matters not with respect to the CBA rules—it has to be that team’s draft choice (this is why you see teams trade away their picks and then occasionally trade back for those same picks).

Looking at the numbers above, it is hard to believe Winnipeg would not instantly match any contract up to $3,134,088 per season.

Before moving onto the next contract class and the accompanying compensation, let’s take a look at some important numbers associated with Bogosian’s game over his first three seasons in the NHL.

Again, before moving onto the next class of compensation (any offer sheet above $3,134,088) let’s look at some comparables to Bogosian, as we did with Blake Wheeler.

Erik Johnson seems like a very applicable comparison in this instance.  Johnson is a right handed shooting American defenseman like Bogosian, was a high draft pick (Number 1 in the 2007 NHL Entry Draft) and signed a contract after his entry-level contract expired.  You will note that his 2008/09 season was not included, as he was injured in the off-season (playing golf—well horsing around while playing golf) and did not play a game that season.

Another right handed shooting defenseman who recently signed his second NHL contract is Kris Letang.  Now, during the IC roster breakdown, we discussed the different contracts signed by Erik Johnson and Kris Letang and the risk both assumed by agreeing to their different contracts.  We will recap the distinguishing factors of those contracts in a few paragraphs, but first let’s breakdown some of Letang’s important numbers:

After the 2009/10 season, Erik Johnson had two seasons under his belt.  He signed for two years at $2.6 million per season for a total of $5.2 million.  There was risk involved with this transaction for both sides.  For St. Louis, the risk involved Johnson breaking out over the course of the next two seasons and his market value being far higher than if he had signed a four-year deal.  Alternatively, Johnson risked the lack of security and hoped to have taken his game to the next level by the time the two seasons on the contract were complete.  In hindsight, maybe the Blues were not sold on Johnson—hence his trade to Colorado, but at the time, that seemed to be the prevailing thought process for both sides.

In contrast, Letang signed a four-year deal worth a total of $14 million, or $3.5 million per season.  Letang took security in favour of flexibility and the Penguins opted for the risk (seemingly worthwhile at this point) that Letang would continue to progress on his development curve and provide excess value later on in the contract, if not right away.

Remember that Johnson’s contract was negotiated prior to 2010/11—the only reason those season numbers are provided above is to allow for a first three NHL seasons comparison vis a vis Bogosian.

When comparing these players in order to set a range of contract figures, it comes to light that Bogosian has been employed in a far more defensive role than either of Johnson/Letang.

Bogosian has never seen more than 2:00 minutes per game average on the power play, starts a large number of his shifts in the defensive zone and plays against the other team’s top competition.  Also, he is trusted with significant penalty killing minutes.  Johnson and Letang out produce Bogosian points wise but Bogosian has demonstrated potential in that respect—the differences are not as striking as many would believe.

Overall, Bogosian’s agent could certainly make the argument that he is due for a contract with Winnipeg in the $2.6 million to $2.9 million range.

Now, of course, comes the offer sheet factor.  For a team to make the compensation even something to consider for Cheveldayoff and Heisinger, it needs to exceed $3,134,088.  Even then, a first and a third round pick—depending on the team, may not seem like close to an even trade off.

Then what about the next class of compensation; well, that begins at $4,701,131 and warrants compensation of a first, second and third round pick.  At that financial level, the Jets would have to consider the value of overpaying Bogosian combined with the compensation available.  Although, one would think even with the addition of a second round pick, and an inflated salary, the team would likely match.

The next level is $6,268,175 and warrants compensation of two first round picks, a second round pick and a third round pick.  At that inflated salary and with that value in return, the Jets would likely let Bogosian walk.  However the truth is that an offer like that is not likely, or even remotely likely, to happen.

Thus, it appears that the Winnipeg organization will be negotiating without a real fear of an offer sheet (unless a team drives Winnipeg to overpay at about the $4.0 to $4.5 million range just to throw off their cap projections—see Niklas Hjalmarsson last season).

With the threat of an offer sheet unlikely, Bogosian seems to carry a per season value of about $2.6 to $2.9 million on a two-year deal.  If the deal were for longer, which is probably unlikely considering the team’s lack of familiarity with him, then his salary would likely have a higher per year cap hit (think $3.3 to $3.5 million or so).

**Thanks to Mike Colligan for the updated RFA compensation figures**

**Thanks to Gabe Desjardins for the advanced statistics**

Peverley’s acquisition (along with Boris Valabik), however, came at the expense of Blake Wheeler and Mark Stuart. Wheeler flourished (albeit over a small sample size) over the remainder of the season in Atlanta.  The overall line of thinking at the time of the trade was that it was a short-term for long-term deal for the Thrashers.  Peverley is older than Wheeler and consequently closer to unrestricted free agency a.k.a. a likely inflated salary and thereby providing less value.

The focus of today’s piece is on Blake Wheeler’s market value as a restricted free agent (RFA) in this marketplace.  During IC’s team analysis, we broached the subject of Wheeler’s free agent value and pegged him at approximately $2.75 million for the upcoming season.

More about Wheeler’s value to the Jets after the jump.

Let’s take a closer look at Wheeler’s statistics and some comparables to delve deeper into this prospective contract negotiation for the Winnipeg franchise.

Wheeler was fairly consistent in his production and use while playing for the Bruins.  The American winger basically played third line minutes, with favorable usage in the offensive zone off of face-offs, and generally played against difficult competition.  Wheleer is a big player who is harnessing his size and beginning to utilize it more than he did early on in his career.  His talent is evident, as he moves well for a player of his size and can shoot the puck (minimum 18 goals each of the above three seasons).

Last season Wheeler made $2.2 million, a contract he obtained through arbitration.  If the Bruins weren’t willing to spend on him to avoid salary arbitration last summer, it is no surprise they dealt him prior to the trade deadline to avoid a similar contract stalemate over the summer.

With Wheeler’s production in mind, and the fact that he is 24 years old with three full NHL seasons under his belt—having played a minimum of 81 games in each season—let’s take a look at some comparable offensive producers in the same range:

We will evaluate each player’s statistics for this past season and then discuss their respective contract situations in an additional chart.

The above player put up similar numbers to Wheeler but each one, aside from Versteeg’s short stay in Philadelphia, were afforded more of an opportunity on the power play and at even strength (aside from Wheeler’s brief stint in Atlanta).

Let’s evaluate each player’s contract situation:

Voracek has completed three NHL seasons; his entry-level contract is now complete and he is entering his first RFA negotiation.

Versteeg’s contact extension, 3 years at $9.25 million was inflated because of a botched qualifying offer problem with the Blackhawks—who had to overpay to retain his rights.

Little re-signed with Atlanta in August of 2010 to a three-year deal worth $7.15 million.

Hornqvist re-signed with Nashville in August of 2010, as well, for a deal of three years at $9.25 total.

Berglund just recently signed a two-year extension at $4.5 million total.

The above contracts average out to approximately $2.65 million per season—taking into account Versteeg’s contract, which was probably inflated by the lack of a valid qualifying offer and Hawks’ fear of losing him for nothing.

Considering Wheeler’s numbers compare favorably to the above players, a contract in the neighborhood of $2.75 million to $3.1 million seems reasonable.

The above contracts were also two to three years in duration.  Modeling St. Louis and the organization’s extension with Patrik Berglund, and considering the Jets’ lack of familiarity with Wheeler as a player, a two-year deal seems reasonable for both parties.

Wheeler is almost certainly not going to garner an offer-sheet so look for the Jets to focus on re-signing Zach Bogosian and Andrew Ladd prior to signing him to a new deal.

Next let’s identify the team’s restricted free agents.  Led by two-time Stanley Cup champion Andrew Ladd, Winnipeg will have some work to do when it comes to signing their own free agent forwards.

Obviously being a restricted free agent (RFA) means you have not yet reached your late 20s, but the quality of this group of forwards, combined with the forwards above speaks to the talented young core of Winnipeg’s squad.

Projecting contracts is not an easy task, but let’s attempt to at least estimate a range within which the above players should earn on their next deals.

Andrew Ladd

The 25-year-old captain has already hoisted two Stanley Cups, with Carolina and Chicago respectively and had his most productive offensive season in 2010/11 posting 59 points in 81 games.  Ladd led the team with 29 goals, logging just over 20 minutes per game.  His cap hit last season was a modest $2.35 million, so expect the rugged forward to look for a significant increase.  Ladd produced 1.85 points per 60 minutes of even strength ice time, which is good but not great. The season prior he posted a more efficient 2.11 rate with the Blackhawks.  The key, of course, was that Ladd played against tougher competition in Atlanta than he did in Chicago.   That, increased power play time and a slightly better shooting percentage contributed to his increased offensive production in 2010/11. With Winnipeg counting on him to maintain his role as a top-six forward, last season’s production seems more in line with his overall talent level.

Read more about Winnipeg’s Restricted Free Agents & Cap Situation after the jump by clicking read more.

Players right around Ladd in terms of points, ice-time and age this season include: Mikhail Grabovski, Dustin Brown and RJ Umberger.

Grabovski is 27 years old, signed for $2.9 million next season but is an unrestricted free agent the season after and is set for a salary increase.

Brown is 26 years old and is signed for three more seasons at $3.175 million per season.

Umberger is 29 years old, signed for $3.75 million cap hit next season and is a UFA the season after that.

The most likely comparable of the above group to Ladd is Brown.  They are both rugged players, although Brown draws more penalties, both are captains of their respective teams and both have similar offensive potential.  Let’s assume for the purposes of this article that Ladd signs a three-year deal at a rate of $3.6 million per season.

Blake Wheeler

Blake Wheeler has been an interesting player ever since the Coyotes took him as a fairly considerable surprise at fifth overall in the 2004 NHL Entry Draft.  Wheeler is a big player, listed at 6’5, 205 pounds who has taken a while to develop into an offensive performer.  After he arrived in Atlanta, he had 17 points in 23 games and played just under 19:00 minutes per night, which consisted of over 2:00 minutes of time per game on the man advantage.  Wheeler was given more of an opportunity than he had in Boston where he was playing approximately 15:00 minutes per night with about 1:00 of power play time per contest.  Wheeler’s even strength offensive efficiency was first on the Thrashers when you take into account his time with Boston.  The 24 year old raked in $2.2 million in 2010/11, but did not really increase his offensive production in three years in Boston, so a modest increase to $2.75 million per season for two years may be a reasonable deal both sides can deal with.

Ben Maxwell and Rob Schremp

Rick Dudley acquired both Maxwell and Schremp later in the 2010/11 season.  Maxwell was part of the Brent Sopel trade and Schremp was claimed off waivers from the Islanders.  Maxwell played 12 games for Atlanta last season and Schremp played 18 games.

Maxwell carried an $850,000 cap hit last season on the final year of his entry-level contract.  That cap hit consisted of a base salary of $650,000 which means he requires a 10% increase on any qualifying offer he receives.  If Maxwell accepts that qualifying offer, that would mean he would be under contract next season for a contract of $715,000.

Schremp is in a similar situation to Maxwell except for he has already been placed on waivers and carries less weight in negotiations.  If the Winnipeg brass likes his game, as he does possess good hands, nice hockey sense and solid passing skills, he will probably find himself signing at a rate in line with his qualifying offer for next season.  Under the CBA rules, Schremp’s qualifying offer requires a 5% raise, putting his NHL contract at $788,288 for next season.  However, one catch is that the Jets can still qualify him under a two-way contract—meaning an NHL rate and AHL rate in the event he is sent to the minors.  It is likely that if Winnipeg qualify Schremp, he will accept that salary on a one-year contract.

Anthony Stewart

Stewart was a first round pick in the 2003 Entry Draft by the Florida Panthers.  The older brother of Chris Stewart of the Avalanche, Anthony came into his own last season playing 80 games, logging just under 15:00 minutes per game and even seeing some power play time.  Stewart is big, weighing in at 230 pounds and standing 6’3.  He scored 14 goals last season and may have carved himself a role on the team’s third line moving forward.  Stewart earned $632,000 last season and a qualifying offer would see him make just under $700,000.  Stewart proved he can shoulder some of the load last season and could see his contract jump to around the $825,000 mark.

So, if the five restricted free agents sign for approximately what they have been slotted in for within this series, here is the chart again:

Now the above is obviously based on a number of assumptions but for the sake of this series, let’s calculate the numbers of forwards under contract for next season under this hypothetical and the according cap hits:  14 forwards, total cap hit of approximately $24.00 million.

Cap Situation

Most fans are under the assumption that the team will not spend up to the salary cap.  With all the talk of a team coming back to Winnipeg, fans generally equated the team’s future cap situation to that of the Predators in Nashville.

The Predators sat at $50.9 million last season, which was approximately 86% of the way up to the salary cap ceiling.  Under the assumption that Winnipeg utilizes that same strategy and with the cap rumoured by Larry Brooks of the NY Post to be $62.2 million, they conceivably could have a salary load of approximately $52.87 million.

On that basis, the team has approximately 45% of its available cap money tied up in its forward corps.  Now remember that we accounted for 14 forwards, some of whom likely will not be with the team.  Additionally, later in this piece we will be looking at which players are available for Winnipeg to target in free agency.

The next stop in analysis will be a focus on the team’s Defencemen.