The goaltender position is one of the most interesting positions in all of sport. Goaltenders face considerable individual pressure unique to a team sport such as hockey.  The lonely island of the crease generally results in anointing a city’s hero or looking down upon a city’s goat. The line between both hero and goat is so fine that the same netminders can find themselves in both categories in the same season.  Rarely is there a middle ground.

This season the Czech netminder, who has probably been perceived as more hero than goat, is earning a salary of $1.15 million.  Before delving into Pavelec’s value on the market, let’s first venture into the territory of a goaltender’s value in the current NHL marketplace.

The Pavelec negotiations will provide fans with an indicator of how the Jets’ brass views goaltenders and their monetary value.  Some teams, such as Chicago (Kevin Cheveldayoff’s former team) and Detroit, do not believe in paying goaltenders significant amounts of money; these teams have spent $3.26 and $3.0 million respectively on their starting and backup netminders this season.  Teams such as the Wings and Hawks have been extremely successful utilizing this method.  They make a concerted effort to spend much of their respective cap space on tremendous top-end defensive talent (Nicklas Lidstrom and Duncan Keith to name just two) and top-end offensive talent (Pavel Datsyuk and Jonathan Toews among many others).  Goaltending, while not overlooked, is apportioned a modest amount of the team’s salary cap.

Conversely, the defending Stanley Cup champion Boston Bruins are spending $6.25 million of salary cap space on netminding this season.   With the Bruins’ success last season and again this season, one could argue both methods work under the right circumstances.

This season the Winnipeg Jets spent $3.0 million (the same amount as Detroit, although it accounts for a higher percentage of team salary, as the Wings spend more money on player salaries than do the Jets) on the netminding duo of Pavelec and veteran Chris Mason.  Both of these contracts were signed by the previous regime, leaving us with little in the way of evidence as to how Kevin Cheveldayoff and company wish to spend TNSE’s money on the goaltender position.

With the possibility of a playoff spot being of paramount concern to the Winnipeg organization, fans will likely have to wait until the summer to find out how much the Jets intend to spend on the netminding position.  In the meantime, let’s attempt to narrow down the value of Ondrej Pavelec on the free agent market.

Comparables

Ondrej Pavelec has seen significant starting minutes in the NHL since the 2009-10 season.  Here are his significant goaltending statistics since that time:

Pavelec was a second round draft selection (41^st overall) in the 2005 NHL Entry Draft.  Here are the other netminders drafted within the first three rounds of that draft year:

1. Carey Price (fifth overall);
2. Tuukka Rask (21^st overall);
3. Tyler Plante (32^nd overall);
4. Jeff Frazee (38^th overall);
5. Pier-Olivier Pelletier (59^th overall);
6. Kristofer Westblom (65^th overall);
7. Jonathan Quick (72^nd overall); and
8. Ben Bishop (85^th overall).

Naturally, Carey Price, Tuukka Rask and Jonathan Quick serve as interesting comparables for Pavelec.  For interest’s sake, we will not strictly limit comparables to Pavelec’s draft year and will include a younger netminder in Semyon Varlamov (23^rd overall in 2006 NHL Entry Level) and an older netminder in Jaroslav Halak (271^st overall in 2003 NHL Entry Draft) in this analysis.

Leverage

Who needs a netminder?

Unlike Evander Kane, the market for netminders is not as significant as the market for a scoring left winger.  Realistically, how many teams need or want to acquire a netminder?

Let’s go division-by-division:

Southeast Division:

1. Washington Capitals: No (Neuvirth/Holtby);
2. Florida Panthers: No (Markstrom);
3. Carolina Hurricanes: No (Ward); and
4. Tampa Bay Lightning: Yes.

Atlantic Division:

1. New York Rangers: No (Lundqvist);
2. New York Islanders: Yes;
3. New Jersey Devils: Maybe;
4. Philadelphia Flyers: No (Bryzgalov); and
5. Pittsburgh Penguins: No (Fleury).

Northeast Division:

1. Montreal Canadiens: No (Price);
2. Toronto Maple Leafs: Maybe (Reimer);
3. Buffalo Sabres: No (Miller);
4. Boston Bruins: No (Thomas/Rask); and
5. Ottawa Senators: No (Anderson/Lehner).

Central Division:

1. Detroit Red Wings: No (Howard);
2. St. Louis Blues: No (Halak/Elliot/Bishop);
3. Chicago Blackhawks: Maybe (Crawford);
4. Nashville Predators: No (Rinne); and
5. Columbus Blue Jackets: Maybe (Mason).

Pacific Division:

1. Dallas Stars: No (Lehtonen);
2. Phoenix Coyotes: No (Smith);
3. Los Angeles Kings: No (Quick/Bernier);
4. San Jose Sharks: No (Niemi); and
5. Anaheim Ducks: No (Hiller).

Northwest Division:

1. Vancouver Canucks: No (Luongo/Schneider);
2. Edmonton Oilers: Maybe (Khabibulin/Dubnyk);
3. Calgary Flames: No (Kiprusoff);
4. Minnesota Wild: No (Backstrom); and
5. Colorado Avalanche: No (Varlamov).

There are arguably seven teams that may or may not be interested in acquiring a netminder in the off-season.    That number, however, could be whittled down depending on Martin Brodeur’s return for the Devils, the Blackhawks’ confidence in Corey Crawford, the Oilers’ ability to deal Khabibulin and their future plans for Devan Dubnyk, among many other factors.  The market could, in theory, be whittled down to two or three teams that truly need a goaltender.

Click here to read the 2nd part of Richard’s analysis of Ondrej Pavelec’s fair market value.

If you recall the site had been on hiatus for a year while we focused on the radio show, which made its transition from 92.9 Kick FM to Sports Radio 1290, which is now known as TSN Radio 1290 in late 2010.  Illegalcurve.com was re-born in March of 2011 as we kicked off a new daily feature entitled Drama in the Desert.  We discussed every piece of news which dealt with the possible re-location of the Phoenix Coyotes.  From President & CEO of the Goldwater Institute Darcy Olsen to the various and very memorable members of the Glendale City Council (I’m looking at you councillor Lieberman).  Who could forget the TSN Jets meter which played with our hearts at every increase/decrease.

Of course we knew back in November 27th, 2010, following an appearance by Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly on the Illegal Curve Hockey Show, that the Atlanta Thrashers were also in the relocation conversation.  We even had a Dixie Drama daily post as the hockey world began to turn its attention to the Thrashers.

Eventually it culminated in the announcement in May and has been a whirlwind ever since.  Who would have believed that a year ago today, the Jets were a defunct team from our past, to the present where the Jets 2.0 are battling for a playoff spot and are coming off a December to Remember.

Here are some articles from the past year that we thought you might enjoy.

Most Viewed:

TSN Jets FAQ – After the announcement of TSN Jets, customers were confused regarding the distribution of the channel. Michael Remis created this handy FAQ to answer all of your questions.

Breaking News: Winnipeg Jets Reveal New Logo – There was much speculation and excitement around the new logo. After a picture of a t-shirt was leaked online, the Jets were forced to announce the logo early. Thousands of fans flocked to the Jets store at MTS Centre to purchase new merchandise.

The incredible odyssey of AllyK, the intrepid out of town fan who vowed to be at the 1st Winnipeg Jets game – Dave Minuk chronicle’s the amazing story of Ally K, who went on a journey from Ohio to Winnipeg, just to be at the home opener.

A pictorial summation of the Winnipeg Jets home opener and from the 1st home exhibition game.  If you weren’t able to enjoy the games live, here are some photos from both of these momentous days in the Jets 2.0 new history.

Behind the Music: Winnipeg Jets – When visiting MTS Centre for a game, fans aren’t just going to a game, they are getting a hockey experience. We spoke with True North’s Director of Event Production, Kyle Balharry and he explained his contributions to the incredible atmosphere that has been created at Jets home games.

Columns:

Why the Jets home opener against the Canadiens needs to be a Whiteout – With a new franchise, there was much speculation if old traditions would be carried forward. Dave Minuk gives his reasons why the home opener should be a whiteout. Despite his arguments, we have yet to see a whiteout this season, and it remains to be seen if there will be one at all.

Wither the Whiteout – Drew Mindell asks if we should continue the tradition of the whiteout.

Go Jets Go? – There was heavy speculation on what the name of the team should be. Some were in the Jets camp, others were in the “fresh start” camp. This post gave all the reasons why the team should be named the Jets, and debunked all myths why they should be given a new name. The right choice won out.

You Can’t Hold Winnipeg Jets Fans Down This Summer – Taking a look back at summer 2011, one of the greatest in the history of Winnipeg.

Blending Together Past and Present – How to keep old traditions while forming new ones.

The Science of an Intro Song – After the team was announced, there was much speculation on what song the team should skate out to, we speculate on potential (and very dated) opening tunes.

Speculating on Ticket Re-Selling – Guest Columnist (and Lawyer) Jack Tadman gives his legal advice around scalping.

Team Analysis:

We’ve Got Depth: A Look at the Updated Winnipeg Jets Depth Chart – In the middle of the summer, Ezra Ginsburg took a look at the teams depth. It looks like he was right as the team’s depth on defense has been invaluable to the team this year. Notably, Mark Flood has stepped up beyond anyone’s expectations. When this post was made, Ezzy had listed Flood as his last defenseman on the depth chart, even behind Andrey Zubarev.

Scheifele-ing Expectations – After Scheifele-mania took over Winnipeg in September, Richard Pollock took the opposite view and gave his reasons why Scheifele should be sent down.

Five Reasons why the Jets Will Not Make the Playoffs – Written before the season began, Richard gives his five reasons why the Jets will not make the playoffs. Citing travel, coaching, and lack of scoring as primary reasons. So far he looks way off. (Sorry Rich)

Five Reasons why the Jets Will Make the Playoffs – Ezra counters with his five reasons. At this point he looks to be spot on, youth, defensive depth, goaltending and home ice advantage have been major factors leading the Jets into the playoff hunt.

How Good is Ondrej Pavelec – Before the season began Ezra Ginsburg wondered how good the Jets goaltender can be. Fans have now seen that he can carry this team on his back.

Why Let Anthony Stewart Get Away For Nothing? – When the team did not make a qualifying offer to Anthony Stewart, Richard took a look at reasons why they should have.

Why Keeping Zach Bogosian is the Most Logical Option – Written amidst internet rumors of the Jets shopping defenseman Zach Bogosian in the offseason.

Analyzing Rick Dudley’s Tenure as Thrashers General Manager – He was the General Manager of the Thrashers before he was let go for current GM Kevin Cheveldayoff. Richard Pollock grades each transaction made during his tenure.

Prospect Pulse:

Read what our prospects expert said about these players before the season.

2011 NHL Entry Draft Report Card

Paul Postma

Arturs Kulda

Carl Klingberg

Jason Gregoire

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We welcome you to use the search function and menu bar to find other articles that may be of interest.  We thank you for reading Illegalcurve.com and listening to the Illegal Curve Radio Show.  We wish everyone a happy and healthy 2012.

Please continue to tune into illegalcurve.com and the Illegal Curve Radio show for all the latest Winnipeg Jets news.

The Teemu love fest didn’t end.  Not by a long shot.  One of the most beloved formerJets 1.0 players gave the media and fans a little more of himself following his team’s 5-3 loss to the Jets.

Teemu Selanne post-game press conference

Klingberg has notched 6 goals for nearly a goal-per-game pace so far this season. Oddly enough, that matches his entire output from 57 games last season between the Swedish Elite League (SEL) and AHL. He’s heated up quickly, and when watching him on the ice, it isn’t too difficult to understand why.

It’s easy to see that Klingberg has the ability to recognize scoring opportunities and put himself in the right areas using his speed. It’s been said in the past that his game was believed to translate well to North American ice, and so far that’s proven true. Because of his size, he’s pretty tough to stop when charging toward the net – slowing a 6’3″ 210 lb guy (who isn’t afraid of the physical game, by the way) from going where he wants is tough when he’s only a few strides away.

It’s no surprise that the Swede is among tops on the IceCaps for shots on goal by a forward with 19. As their premiere player with a hot hand, the team has been feeding him pucks whenever possible and he’s delivering. However, with a shooting percentage upward of 25%, his numbers simply aren’t sustainable.

Of course nobody expects him to score 70+ goals, but that doesn’t mean he won’t continue to turn heads. And from speaking with some local media, it seems his mindset is totally in the right place as well – a few have mentioned that Klingberg is quite humble and easy-going, two traits that fit in pretty well here on the Rock.

From Hockey’s Future:

His biggest challenge will be to develop the patience and ability to recognize scoring opportunities more consistently.

Klingberg’s intensity is especially apparent on the forecheck and his aggressivenss in all three zones make him a difficult player to play against. He has good timing in his hits and rarely puts himself out of the play despite his physical style of play.

A late cut from the Jets’ preseason camp, Klingberg scored in his first game for St. John’s and will be a key player for the IceCaps as he works toward a callup. With NHL ready size and skating, it seems only a matter of timing before Klingberg becomes an NHL regular.

For a somewhat struggling Jets team, Klingberg’s success thus far has to be steadily on their radar. It’s argued that he is simply the team’s second best prospect behind Mark Scheifele, with Postma and Cormier obviously in the mix as well. With Scheifele being returned to junior, Klingberg could see some time in the NHL this season.

All of these players bring different skill-sets to the table, but as far as real scoring ability is concerned, Klingberg is well on his way to breaking out in a big way over here on the smaller rinks.

If he does, this season could be his first and last as an IceCap.

Ryan Fancey writes about the St. John’s IceCaps on his site the Ice Flow and you can follow him on twitter at @SJ_IceCaps for more Jets affiliate news.

Many aspects of the team’s play raised cause for concern for fans who had yet to see their favourite team play against a fully loaded NHL roster.

It is that unfamiliarity with the team’s personnel, which may have set the team fanbase up for disappointment.

Plainly, this team needs work—or more specifically, more talent.   That being said, Sunday’s performance was a not a strong presentation by the team’s forwards, defenders or goaltenders.  This team is not going to play as poorly as it did last night very often.

What may have been most telling of the long road ahead were Claude Noel’s decisions behind the bench.  He was using any number of players in different situations.  In fact, every single Winnipeg Jets skater logged some time on both the power play and the penalty kill.  Think about that for a second (and a couple of those players only played a few seconds in those special teams roles), generally teams have set power play units and set penalty kill units.  Players specifically know their roles and prepare accordingly.

However, Noel knows very little about this team.

Comparatively speaking, look at Lindy Ruff in Buffalo, Mike Babcock in Detroit or Barry Trotz in Nashville.  Those three head bosses have played a significant part in the formation of their respective team’s roster.   They know their player talent on the ice better than anyone and generally use training camp and the pre-season not to evaluate Todd Bertuzzi or Daniel Cleary, but to evaluate newcomers like Ian White and youngsters like Jakub Kindl.  Their experience with the team affords them the opportunity to focus specifically on certain players knowing full well what the rest of the roster is capable of.

Claude Noel does not have that same luxury.  In many ways, he is trying to learn in a few weeks what his contemporary on Sunday afternoon, Jacques Martin, has learned in a few years.

Some may counter the above by stating that new coaches come in an out of jobs all the time.  Sure, that is the case, but this franchise has new management and new assistant coaches, not to mention a new city.  Meaning, everyone is learning on the fly.

How can Kevin Cheveldayoff tell Claude Noel the limits and psychology behind a player like Alexander Burmistrov when he is just trying to get to know him himself? Noel needs to see which players can kill penalties—as this team’s penalty kill has been awful for the past few seasons.   He needs to see who can play on the power play and whether Andrew Ladd can play the point or not.

With time, Noel will become more comfortable with his bench and shorten it to more accurately reflect each player’s talent.  For now, however, he will afford many players opportunities to play in sometimes familiar and sometimes unfamiliar roles.  This is a learning experience for everyone, making patience an important tool through the first few weeks of the NHL’s return to Winnipeg.