It was with great interest that I recently read that Kasdorf would not be reporting to RPI this fall as originally planned.  Instead, it would appear Kasdorf is slated to spend another winter in Portage la Prairie plying his trade for the Terriers of the Manitoba Junior Hockey League.

Kasdorf, who posted a GAA of 2.53 in 34 games played with a save percentage of .912 (2 shutouts), will obviously be leaned on heavily in Portage and will see a ton of minutes.  I do, however, wonder if playing in Portage is the best developmental track for him (with no disrespect intended to Portage or the MJHL)?  Though Kasdorf’s numbers are not all-world, they still show a goaltender who has obviously adjusted well to the level of play in the MJHL.

More on Kasdorf after the jump.

In a season where many of his peers will be logging significant minutes in major junior, college or the minor leagues, Kasdorf will be playing in a Tier II junior league not widely noted for producing talent.  I realize that the Portage option is much better for Kasdorf than going to RPI and being either a back up or 3^rd-string goalie (behind Bryce Merriam and Scott Diebold).  He will get significant game action and the chance to take Portage back to the playoffs.  However, if he is not being challenged on a daily basis, I believe there is a risk of a stagnant year in his development.

If Kasdorf wishes to retain his college eligibility, he (and the Jets) are left with very few options.  He could play in the BCHL (a slight step up from the MJHL) or the USHL, which would likely be another step up still.  I have not been actively keeping up on #1 goaltender vacancies in either the BCHL or the USHL, but one would think there would be some interest in Kasdorf.  I would guess there are also some college teams looking for goaltenders (hello, Michigan) this season, though it may be tough for Kasdorf to ignore the positives of playing for former goalie Seth Appert at RPI.

I am loathe to advocate for a kid switching teams this late in the summer, but if the Jets are serious about developing Kasdorf then they should seriously consider how his long term development will be hindered by a year playing against lesser competition.  For a tall and lanky goaltender with raw skills to be facing competition he knows he can dominate instead of challenging himself can have a detrimental long term effect on development.  The Jets should be proactive with Kasdorf and give the goalie the opportunity to prove himself at a higher level.  Better competition will help the player and will assist the Jets in evaluating exactly what kind of prospect they have on their hands.

Please leave your thoughts in the comments or follow me on Twitter @ickylek

Here is an excerpt of my piece (ESPN Insider Required):

Before recently undergoing surgery, Emery posted 11 wins, 8 losses, 1 overtime loss, a .901 save percentage and a 2.83 G.A.A. Emery’s save percentage places him a measly 39th out of 46 eligible goaltenders in that respect. It would be easy to frown on such a performance and write off 2009-10 as another season in which the Flyers had the wrong man in the crease. However, closer examination shows Emery may in fact be the right man for the job. And when he returns, the Flyers still have a shot at the playoffs.

Read the entire article here.

Let’s take a look at that very question; here is an excerpt to the article:

Well, first off, the NHL has ceased in its keeping of time of possession statistics for reasons unbeknownst to me. That being said, I would hazard to guess that the above teams who lead the league in blocked shots since the lockout generally have the puck less than their opposition. Teams in the top six in terms of blocked shots, like the New York Islanders and Edmonton Oilers (as an aside, Isles/Oilers fans must have been longing for the 80s over the past four seasons), were quite awful in terms of points in the standings. Remember, even when the Oilers made the Stanley Cup Finals in 2006, the team was seeded eighth in the entire Western Conference.

Of the top ten teams in terms of shots blocked since the lockout, four of these teams were in the bottom third in the NHL over the same period in shots for. Now, shots for is not exactly a foolproof method of calculating puck possession, but it may be our most useful gauge.

Read the entire article here.

Here is an excerpt:

So, last week we saw that the Leafs were one of the biggest exceptions to the rule. This week, we see that the St. Louis Blues are the biggest exception. The Blues accumulated the second-fewest points in the NHL from 2005 through 2009, yet allowed the seventh least shots against in the NHL. Along with St. Louis, both Tampa Bay and Chicago stand out as teams that were in the bottom third in points accumulated, but finished in the top ten in shots allowed.

What is the moral of the story? Well, first off, it would be far too simplistic to say that just one facet of the game is directly responsible for a team’s poor performance. However, in the above three exceptions, a lack of solid goaltending most likely played a significant part in the team’s poor record since the lockout.

Read the entire article here.

Let’s examine whether more shots on goal generally means more points in the standings:

Using the Pearson Correlation Coefficient, the findings establish that there is a 0.48 correlation between shots on goal and accumulating points in the standings since the lockout. This, while not the strongest of correlations, is still fairly significant. Overall, the above numbers suggest that a higher number of shots on goal will generally lead to a higher ranking in the standings.

Read the entire article here.

Here is an excerpt:

Surprise, surprise Detroit is once again at the top of another rankings list since the lockout. The job Ken Holland and company have done in Motown is truly amazing. No surprise again, that Buffalo, San Jose and New Jersey are also sitting at the top of both rankings list. That said, we once again see a mix up of the rankings as we move further on down each list. What stands out most may be the Anaheim Ducks—a traditionally undisciplined team—sitting fifth in total points since the lockout, but with the most penalty minutes in the entire NHL over that same period. In fact, the next closest team is more than 300 penalty minutes behind the Ducks.

Read the entire article here.

Here is an excerpt:

Of the top ten teams in terms of points, five of them finished in the top ten in faceoff percentage over that same period. There are some interesting findings here. Aside from the top ten, faceoff percentage really does not seem to be indicative of success. Of the middle ten teams in total points, five of these teams finished in the bottom third in the NHL in faceoff percentage over the same period. Additionally, four of the bottom eleven teams in points finished with faceoff percentages in the top ten over that same period.

Read the entire article here.

Here is an excerpt:

There is certainly a high correlation between being top ten in three goal win/loss differential and total wins.

Not surprisingly, and as mentioned above, Detroit was at the top of both the goal differential chart and the total wins chart. The Red Wings blew out their opponents 22 more times than the next closest team (Ottawa) and also won more games over the same span by sixteen games. Both of those differentials are substantial considering the spreads between the teams below Detroit. In fact, the Red Wings’ twenty two more wins than Ottawa is the biggest spread between any two teams on the entire chart. Yes, the organization has been that dominant since the lockout.

Ottawa is an interesting case because they have become worse each of the past four seasons in terms of both three goal win/loss differential, as well as win total. Nonetheless, the team’s early post-lockout success was such that they placed high on both lists.

Read the entire article here.

Here is an excerpt:

With the additions of Mike Komisarek and Francois Beauchemin to the group’s top four, it looked as though the Leafs would have a healthy balance of size, speed and offensive ability on the back end. At least, that’s how it seemed. As the team’s 0-7-1 start vividly illustrates, Toronto’s defense has been anything but solid.

As the early-season media storm indicated, part of the Leafs’ defensive struggles have been attributable to the team’s goaltending. While the opening-night tandem of Vesa Toskala and Jonas Gustavsson has battled injuries in the early going, neither has performed well. Add in replacement Joey MacDonald and the picture gets no brighter. None of the three keepers supports a save percentage above .900, while Toskala sports a wretched .812 mark in his four games.

Read the entire article here.

Read an excerpt here:

Are there any evident trends in terms of plus/minus results? Well, not surprisingly the New Jersey Devils are number one on this list—and it is not even close. The Devils won 51 more one-goal games than they lost from 2005/06 to 2008/09. In fact, the Devils never finished with less than a +8 in terms of one-goal victories. Is this because of Martin Brodeur? Or is this because of the team’s defensive mentality? This is kind of like the chicken or the egg argument, but I’d say it is a bit of both. The Devils clearly have an ability to clamp down with the lead and secure a one-goal victory. New Jersey has always been known as this type of team, but these numbers certainly confirm that.

Read the entire article here.

Here is an excerpt:

Well, the results are quite interesting. In fact, teams that won over 40% of their games by three goals or more (there were four such teams) actually saw their point totals drop by a total of five points. Wouldn’t you think that teams, no matter how good they are, that handle their opponents relatively easily in a high percentage of games, would see that success translate to at least a couple more points the following season? Apparently not, but the above category only focuses on four teams.

What about teams that won between 31% and 40% of their games by three goals or more?

Read the entire article here.

Here is an excerpt:

In baseball, many times teams that lose a lot of one-run games attribute the result to bad luck and, as a result, expect their luck to turnaround the following campaign. Is the same belief applicable to the game of hockey?

It is an interesting question because in hockey, unlike baseball, you can directly change your style of play depending on the score of the game. So, perhaps teams that lose a plethora of one-goal games fall behind and are unable to put everything together in order to make comeback after comeback. On the other hand, maybe we can just chalk it up to sheer bad luck.

Let’s take a glance at the past four post-lockout seasons to get a better look at whether teams that win/lose one-goal games see those results continue season after season.

Read the entire article here.

Here is an excerpt:

The projections did produce some curious results, with the Los Angeles Kings and St. Louis Blues projecting near the bottom of the league in five-on-five play.

Those results could catch some off guard; understandably so, as both teams boast a fair number of talented forwards and defensemen and are considered potential playoff teams.

Read the entire article here.

Here is an excerpt from my Panthers preview:

It was not exactly a storybook summer for the Florida Panthers. There was the pending sale of the team for fans to deal with and the team’s best defenseman, Jay Bouwmeester, was traded to Calgary on draft day because GM Randy Sexton knew he would not be able to sign the Alberta native to a long-term deal once free agency hit. Losing a player of Bouwmeester’s caliber would be a vital loss to any team, but will it be especially crippling for a Panthers team that did not spend up to the salary cap?

Read the entire preview here.

Here is an excerpt from my Hurricanes preview:

Was last season’s run to the third round a fluke, or are the Hurricanes primed to carry that momentum into next season? That is the question floating around the minds of hockey fans in North Carolina. Last season, the Hurricanes struggled through the first half of the season, but after a coaching change and the re-acquisition of Erik Cole, the team took off and did not stop its momentum until running into the eventual Stanley Cup champion Penguins in the Eastern Conference final.

Read the entire article here.

The IC picks across the board are:

Note: This article requires ESPN Insider access.

Here is an excerpt:

One glance at the weight assigned to the five-on-five category in ESPN The Magazine’s upcoming NHL projections will tell you how important it is for teams to excel at even strength. But allow us to briefly reinforce that point by telling you that the top 10 teams in even-strength goal ratio all made the playoffs last season. Only two teams in the bottom third of that category reached the postseason, and both were eliminated in the first round.

Read the entire article here.

Last season was just another in the long line of losing seasons for the Atlanta Thrashers franchise. GM Don Waddell has been kept on for another season and may have made his best offseason acquisition when he decided to bring in Rick Dudley to join his front office. Dudley does not get much press, but his work in Chicago was underrated and his eye for talent is tremendous. That eye will come in handy because the Thrashers, even with years and years of high draft picks, lack the overall talent level to contend for the Stanley Cup in the next couple of seasons.

Luckily for Thrashers fans, things appear to be moving in the right direction. Unfortunately the team is not in the same advantageous position in terms of young talent as a team like St. Louis or a team like Chicago; so, patience will be a virtue in Georgia for the next few seasons.

Read the entire preview here.

Here is an excerpt:

After a fairly disastrous 2008-09 season, the Tampa Bay Lightning can only move forward. For a team whose expectations were high prior to last season, a 14th place Eastern Conference finish, and a 29th overall finish in the NHL standings left much to be desired.

Over the summer, the Lightning did not make as many moves as it did last offseason, however, the moves the team did make were shrewder than last summer.

Moving forward, the Bolts have a 0.3% chance of winning the Stanley Cup (Puck Prospectus Rating) but there is certainly room to improve on a tumultuous first season under new ownership.

Read the entire preview here.

Here’s an excerpt:

Trending Up: RW Nathan Horton

Last Season: + 3.8 GVT | VUKOTA Projection: + 9.0 GVT

Nathan Horton has always been a player with loads of potential. He possesses a nasty shot and has the perfect size to become a dominant NHL power forward. Unfortunately for Panthers fans, Horton has been rather mediocre since making the team in 2003-04. However, now is the time for those disappointed supporters to rejoice; VUKOTA has Horton’s GVT of 3.8 from 2008-09 jumping to 9.0 in 2009-10. VUKOTA also has Horton’s point total jumping by 10 points (to 56) and obviously still sees the 24-year-old as a player on the rise.

Read the entire article here.

I was responsible for the Southeast Division; here are the five pieces (Note: ESPN Insider is required to read these stories):

Florida Panthers

Atlanta Thrashers

Washington Capitals

Tampa Bay Lightning

Carolina Hurricanes

Here is an excerpt:

4. Manny Malhotra (GVT 4.7)

Remember when Manny Malhotra was drafted early in the first round by the New York Rangers and pegged as the next great two-way center? Well, that never exactly turned out to be the case. Malhotra has turned into a very reliable defensive center, but his offensive skills leave much to be desired.

Malhotra can play at even strength, on the penalty kill and a little bit on the power play (however, his power play time was more so due to Columbus injuries). His 58% faceoff percentage is tremendous and would be an asset to any team. Malhotra doesn’t throw his body around recklessly, but still does hit (just under one hit per-game). Additionally, he was second in terms of blocked shots for Blue Jackets forwards (just behind Mike Peca). So, Malhotra can help a team in a variety of ways. In effect, he is arguably the best player remaining on the UFA market—aside from Alex Tanguay.

After making $1.2 million last season, Malhotra is almost certainly looking for a raise and a long-term deal. Otherwise, he would have been signed by now. Expect the character center to land a three-year deal, in the $5.5-$6 million range if things work out well. If not, he may have to bide his time on a one-year $2 million contract for the time being.

Read the entire article here.

1. Brendan Bell (GVT 4.6)

Last season, Brendan Bell dressed in 53 games for the Ottawa Senators and tallied a respectable 21 points. His points-per-game of 0.39, spread out over an 82-game season, would have resulted in a 32 point season for the journeyman defender.

Bell’s forte is his power play quarterbacking ability and puck-moving skills. Last season he only played 17:00 minutes per game for Ottawa, 3:00 minutes of this time per game was on the power play. Taking into account his low penalty killing minute totals (less than 10:00 all season long), you can see just how one-dimensional Bell is. Never mind the fact that Bell was eighth out of all the Senators defensemen on the team in blocked shots (36) and eighth out of all the team’s defensemen in hits (29).

Read the entire article here.

Here is an excerpt:

1. Martin Biron (GVT 14.3)

After being dispatched from Philadelphia in favor of Ray Emery, Martin Biron still finds himself as an available unrestricted free agent. Were the Flyers right to let him go or was Biron really not the problem in Philadelphia?

Well, the statistics exhibit that the Flyers’ biggest problem last season was not in between the pipes (where the team had an even strength GVT of 12.5), but instead on the blue line (where the team had an even strength GVT of -20.3). Either way, the Flyers chose to address both “problems” this offseason by bringing in Emery and then trading for Chris Pronger. Whereas Pronger served to fill an obvious need, the signing of Emery and the decision to let Martin Biron walk probably had as much, or more, to do with salary than anything else.

Read the entire article here.

Here is an excerpt:

Greg Zanon–Minnesota Wild (3 Years, $5.8 Million); With the market bordering on insanity, the Wild did well to pick up a solid defenseman whose contributions to his team have been underrated around the National Hockey League for some time now. Zanon is a defensive defenseman that provides nice shot-blocking and physical elements to the team’s back-end. The stay-at-home defenseman was overshadowed by the likes of Shea Weber, Ryan Suter and Dan Hamhuis but that does not mean he does not have what it takes to shoulder more responsibility. In fact, he played against as tough, or close to as tough, competition as the aforementioned three defensemen last season. Moreover, even behind those three big-name defensemen, Zanon still averaged over 20 minutes of ice-time per game (20:50).

Read the entire article here.

Here is an excerpt:

Leading into the Draft, we examined the value of each draft round’s apparent worth. After my colleague Timo Seppa analyzed the blockbuster Chris Pronger trade, it makes sense to analyze the rest of the trades made on draft weekend.

Now, for the purposes of continuity, we will not examine trades involving any players. Instead, we will examine all trades that only included draft picks. How many of those trades were completed, you ask? There were sixteen draft pick only trades to be exact.

So, let’s examine these sixteen deals and see who came out on top.

1. Minnesota traded pick #12 in the 2009 Entry Draft to NY Islanders for picks #16, #77 and #182 in 2009.

Winner: Minnesota Wild.

Why: Considering the minimal difference in value between selections 11-20 and 21-30, the Wild made out extremely well in this transaction. Minnesota moved down only four slots and added a 3rd round pick, as well as a fairly valueless 7th round pick. The key is obviously the extra third round selection which is well worth the small move to drop four spots in the first round.

Read the entire article here.

Here is an excerpt:

The talent available at the top of this draft is unquestionable. So much so that there has been an ongoing debate on Long Island, as to which player the Islanders should select, for some time now. While the fans’ prevailing sentiment is with John Tavares, various media outlets have reported that the Islanders’ man could be Victor Hedman or even Matt Duchene.

Even with all the speculation, expect the Islanders to take John Tavares. Simply, he is expected to be a top sniper for the next 15-plus seasons and is worthy of the hype he’s been receiving. While many scouts believe his biggest flaw is his skating, they don’t believe that will hinder Tavares too much at the next level.

Click here to read the entire article.

Here is an excerpt for this week’s article:

After reading last week’s draft column, my colleague Timo Seppa asked me whether the reason for the lack of disparity between later round draft picks was due to the fact that teams are aware of the minimal value difference between a fifth round pick and an undrafted free agent and consequently take a flier on a high risk/high reward player? Admittedly, this question piqued my interest. The concept certainly seems feasible, but is it true?

Read the entire article here.

Here is an excerpt. 

Now, let’s take a look at the ratios for forwards. Once again, first round draft picks (31315) almost out-produced all of the other rounds combined (33567); albeit not as close as the defensemen percentage was. In terms of ratios, the first round forwards produced 3.3 points for every point that the second round forwards produced, 3.95 for every point that the third round forwards produced and 5.95 for every point that the fourth round forwards produced.

Read the entire article here.

Here is an excerpt:

However, what these numbers do seem to establish is that a team’s best chance to draft an offensive defenseman is clearly in the first round. The numbers above indicate that first round defensemen draft picks have dominant statistics as compared to other rounds. Also of note, is the fact that these numbers also include games played, which should help to take into account defensive defensemen.

Read the entire article here.

We can certainly tell that defensemen drafted in the first round have dominated the top defense scorers for some time. For the past ten seasons (this chart extends eleven years because of the lockout) there have never been less than eight first round draft picks among the top 30 points scoring defensemen in the NHL. At its high point, fourteen of the 30 top defensemen were first round selections back in the 1999/00 season. However, it is interesting to note that of this past season’s top 30 point-producing defensemen only eight were first round selections—or, the smallest first round pick percentage (26%) of the past ten seasons.

Click here to read the entire article.

Almost everyone knows that the draft is somewhat of a crapshoot. For all the work teams and scouts put into projecting the future production of teenagers, there is an element of luck involved as well. This element of luck may be even more apparent when it comes to goaltenders. As the above statistics indicate, only 20% of goaltenders drafted (in the first seven rounds) over the eleven draft years of 1991-2001 have played 100+ games in the NHL. While these are the overall numbers, is there greater likelihood of success for drafting goaltenders later in the draft as opposed to earlier?

Read the entire article here.

Looking at the totals, it becomes apparent that there are some surprising numbers included in this data; especially the fact that the last round of the draft (except in 1994 when the draft extended past nine rounds) has produced more players who’ve played at least one game in the NHL than rounds seven or eight.

While the number of players who have played a game in the NHL is an interesting indicator of late draft success, we will now look to evaluate the production of these said players more closely.

Read the entire article here.