Much has been made about some teams, like the Montreal Canadiens, being in tough if the salary cap does drop by just over $10.0 million from this shortened season (if it happens) to the next season thereafter.

The purpose of this article is to focus strictly on the Winnipeg Jets and the team’s salary cap situation heading into the 2013-14 season.

First, let’s examine which players are under contract for that season (as per the extremely helpful capgeek.com):

As you can see, the Jets have considerable cap space heading into the 2013-14 season.  Cap space is code for roster flexibility and something the Jets have been waiting for since the move from Atlanta.  GM Kevin Cheveldayoff cannot say it on the record but you can bet your bottom dollar he has been projecting for the contracts of Antropov and Hainsey to come off the salary cap books.

As written about in last season’s Maple Street Press Jets magazine, the Jets have had far too much money locked up in their defense corps.  In fact, the Jets headed into last season with the highest proportion of cap dollars allocated to defense in the entire NHL.

Before delving into who needs to be signed to fill the fairly bare roster (not talent-wise but numbers-wise), it is interesting to note that by the 2013-14 season the Jets will already be on the way to being Kevin Cheveldayoff’s team.  He re-signed Tobias Enstrom, Ondrej Pavelec, Andrew Ladd, Jim Slater and Evander Kane and he went out and signed Olli Jokinen.  After the 2013-14 season when Mark Stuart and Chris Thorburn’s contracts expire, Cheveldayoff will have penned all contracts on the roster save and except for Dustin Byfuglien.

Roster Spots Per Dollar

The above chart indicates that the Jets have 5 forwards, 3 defensemen and 1 goaltender signed for the 2013-14 season.

We will base this analysis on the Jets carrying 14 forwards, 7 defensemen and 2 goaltenders (assuming the 23 man roster limit is not amended in the prospective CBA).

Consequently, the Jets have 14 roster spots to fill with $26.84 million ($60.0 million minus $33.16) in cap space.

That equates to $1.91 million per roster spot.

Pending Restricted Free Agents

Heading into the 2013-14 season, the Jets will have significant RFAs such as Blake Wheeler, Bryan Little and Zach Bogosian.  For the purposes of this analysis we will assume all three players re-sign (personally I feel Wheeler and Bogosian will re-sign and Little will eventually be moved—but that is just my opinion and if we delve into further hypotheticals like that this article may never end).

Alexander Burmistrov is also a pending RFA, but his success, or lack thereof, will likely result in a modest second contract or trade.

Conservative estimates of these players’ respective market values are as follows:

Bryan Little

Much has been written about his talent level on Illegal Curve (click here to read such analysis).

This is not a simple contract analysis but if you compare Little to players like Antoine Vermette, Sam Gagner and Tim Connolly you are estimating a salary in the approximate range of $3.75 million per season.

Zach Bogosian

Zach Bogosian is one of the stalwarts of the Jets defense.  He is physical, can skate as well as any defensemen and his offensive game has made some strides.  What’s more, he apparently really enjoys playing in Winnipeg and appears to be more than willing to re-up with the organization long-term.

After just handing Tobias Enstrom a big-money long-term deal with an average cap hit of $5.75 million, Bogosian will be looking to cash in on a long-term pact.  The New York native will have accrued five NHL season by the time the 2012-13 season (if it ever happens) is completed.  As such, he will be a mere two seasons (and seven accrued NHL seasons) to being a UFA.  Leverage is the key here and Bogosian will have lots of it—arbitration as well.

Looking to sign his third NHL contract and cash-in long term it would be fair to estimate that Bogosian will at least make $5.0 million per on his next contract.

Blake Wheeler

Blake Wheeler made great strides last season.  The Minnesota native came into his own and carried over his strong play upon being traded to Atlanta the season prior to the Jets’ return to Winnipeg.

He can skate, is a deft passer and can put up some goals as well.  His size and speed combination make him a desirable commodity on the NHL landscape.

Wheeler has already accrued five NHL seasons and the 2012-13 season would be his sixth. Wheeler played three NCAA seasons in Minnesota and will actually be 27 on August 31, 2013.  Therefore, Wheeler will only be an RFA for the 2013-14 season and will then be a UFA.

Essentially, he will be in the same negotiation position (one year left on RFA deal) as Andrew Ladd was last summer.  The Jets have to decide whether they believe Wheeler is a number one or number two right winger—but will probably sign him regardless of that internal determination.

A salary in the neighborhood of $4.5 million is not an unreasonable expectation.

Alexander Burmistrov

Burmistrov has struggled in first couple NHL seasons.  What is apparent is that Burmistrov needed more seasoning and was thrust into the spotlight in Atlanta unnecessarily–that was a consistent trend for the Thrashers.

His cap hit this upcoming season is $1.5 million and expecting any contract figure higher than that seems unlikely.  If Burmistrov re-signs with the Jets a one-year deal in that same neighborhood is quite possible.

Updated Roster Status

Let’s examine the 2013-14 prospective roster taking into account the projections for Little, Wheeler and Bogosian:

Updated Roster Spots Per Dollar

The Jets now have 8 forwards, 4 defensemen and 1 goaltender signed for the 2013-14 season.

Leaving the organization with 10 roster spots to fill with $12.09 million ($60.0 million minus $47.91) in cap space.

That equates to $1.209 million per roster spot.

Young Players

We are assuming only one, if any (my personal opinion is they may look to keep Wellwood), of the likes of Nikolai Antropov, Alexei Ponikarovsky, Kyle Wellwood and Antti Miettinen will return for the 2013-14 season.

With that in mind, players such as Mark Scheifele, Zach Redmond, Ivan Telegin and Jason Gregoire will be counted on to play in the NHL without taking a big chunk of the team’s cap.

The main point this analysis hammers home is that you have to draft well in the NHL.  This is not baseball where a team can go out pay a boatload of money and sign another team’s best player hitting his prime.  Very few top players even hit UFA status in the NHL anymore.  In any event, such players come at a high cost—see: Zach Parise and Ryan Suter.

The Jets will need their draft picks (so far Cheveldayoff and his scouting staff have appeared to have a good idea of what they are doing) to outperform their contracts.

Again, for the purposes of this analysis, let’s assume the aforementioned players make the Jets in 2013-14.

Here is the updated roster outlook:

Updated Roster Spots Per Dollar

The Jets now have 11 forwards, 5 defensemen and 1 goaltender signed for the 2013-14 season.

Leaving the organization with 6 roster spots to fill with $8.03 million ($60.0 million minus $51.97) in cap space.

That equates to $1.33 million per roster spot—which means the average cap hit availability actually goes up upon the inclusion of young talent on entry level deals (this will be the key to the Jets’ success).

Cap Team

The above demonstrates that the Jets have some room to move heading into the 2013-14 season.  But we must make note of the fact that the Jets have never indicated the organization would be paying to the ceiling of the salary cap.  Even if the minimum salary increases under the prospective CBA and the Jets fill the remaining spots like sixth defenseman, backup goalie and some third and fourth line spots (what about a first or second line right winger?) at the league minimum the team cap will be inching towards the $56.0 to $57.0 million range.

That is why this analysis has not mentioned other team’s free agents (including players other teams buyout).  There will be little funds for such a splash—unless, of course, trades are made.

Buyouts

Speaking of buyout candidates, if the league provides its teams with a period of time to buyout existing players on contracts, it does not appear the Jets have anyone worth buying out.

As mentioned above, Cheveldayoff is responsible for the majority of the contracts on the Jets’ books for the 2013-14 season (the buyouts (two of them to be correct) are allegedly going to be available after the 2012-13 season and before the 2013-14 season.

The only contracts Cheveldayoff has not signed are: Mark Stuart ($1.7 million), Dustin Byfuglien ($5.2 million) and Chris Thorburn ($0.86 million).

Stuart is a character defenseman who plays tough, blocks shots and is good in the room.  His contract is also reasonable.  The Jets almost assuredly won’t buy him out.

Byfuglien is arguably the team’s best defenseman and would make absolutely no sense to buy out.

As for Thorburn, even though he is certainly replaceable, (Note: The prospective buyouts won’t count against the team cap (only HRR-hockey related revenue)), Thorburn makes so little in NHL terms and is well-liked in the room enough to make Cheveldayoff wait until his salary comes off the books.  Plus buying him out does not provide any extra salary cap flexibility as the player that would replace him would probably make just as much money (although may be more talent—which still makes this a possibility).

Conclusion

When all is said and done, the Jets do not have a lot of money on the books when you look forward to the 2013-14 season.  A prospective $60.0 million NHL hard cap does appear to provide the Jets with more flexibility than other NHL organization.  And while that may very well be true, after taking care of their current stable of talent there is not whole lot of financial wiggle room.

The more likely scenario is that the Jets eventually pull the trigger on a number of trades (will Jacob Trouba push Zach Bogosian or Dustin Byfuglien to the market with his strong play as a right-side defender?) and continue their emphasis on the draft (Cheveldayoff has loaded up picks for the upcoming Entry Draft in New Jersey).

Developing a playoff caliber team on an annual basis does not happen overnight but the blueprint is in place to make it happen over the next few seasons.

Now we just need the players and owners to actually sign a CBA so we can wait to find out.

Now many pundits felt the true test would be whether or not the crowds would keep up once the fervor of the home opener died down.  While I’m sure many expected to see a slight drop from the home opener’s sellout crowd of 17,532 the pictures from Game 2 would seem to indicate that there has been a significant drop off.  When I initially saw these pictures, I thought that perhaps fans in Phoenix, like those in other cities (I’m looking at you Toronto), spend half the period out of their seats and that since the pictures were taken a minute into the 2nd period this was the reason that the building looked half empty.

But then you see this picture that was taken from the upper bowl of Jobing.com arena at the 13:47 mark of the second period and you realize that there just wasn’t anyone at the game;

Now I am not sounding the death knell of the Yotes.  Clearly Shane Doan, who is just a tremendous player (and person) thinks a lot of Phoenix;

It’s just a special place here, and these fans really do care,” Doan said. “The whole team is just grateful for the people who do support us so passionately.”

But the question I have after seeing these pictures is, where have they all gone?  The Coyotes are going to have to continue to make major concessions to the people of Arizona to get them to come out.  Still, you would think that the second game of the season would have been a little better attended than what it appeared to be.  It should be interesting to see what the “announced crowd” will be.  Any guesses?

Update:  Announced attendance 6,899.  Dear Mama.

Update #2:  A look at all the Coyotes home games.

*Photos from Bluechipper

EASTERN

G/G

GA/G

5-5 F/A

PP%

PK%

S/G

SA/G

vs.

1 ) Boston

4.25

1.50

1.83

25.00

100.00

32.50

27.80

6 ) Carolina

2.43

2.14

1.25

6.90

88.90

34.10

34.60

Edge:

Bos

Bos

Bos

Bos

Bos

Car

Bos

G/G

GA/G

5-5 F/A

PP%

PK%

S/G

SA/G

vs.

2 ) Washington

2.71

1.57

1.71

18.20

87.10

30.90

23.70

4 ) Pittsburgh

3.00

2.67

1.10

12.50

86.70

33.30

32.30

Edge:

Pit

Wash

Wash

Wash

Wash

Pit

Wash

WESTERN

G/G

GA/G

5-5 F/A

PP%

PK%

S/G

SA/G

vs.

2 ) Detroit

4.50

1.75

2.50

31.80

76.90

35.00

27.50

8 ) Anaheim

3.00

1.67

2.40

21.70

83.30

26.00

38.30

Edge:

Det

Det

Det

Det

Ana

Det

Det

G/G

GA/G

5-5 F/A

PP%

PK%

S/G

SA/G

vs.

3 ) Vancouver

2.75

1.25

1.50

22.20

95.80

30.00

32.80

4 ) Chicago

3.50

2.67

1.08

29.20

88.90

29.20

29.30

Edge:

Chi

Van

Van

Chi

Van

Van

Chi

Is the 21st selection that much less valuable than the 13th selection? If teams routinely have one player at number 12 on their board, and he is a second rounder on someone else’s board, should teams place that much more value on a middle first round pick than a late first round pick? To analyze these questions, we will evaluate the numbers from the 1994 NHL Entry Draft through to the 2004 NHL Entry Draft. We won’t include the first ten picks of these drafts, as top ten picks are generally a sure thing and rarely don’t turn into at least productive NHL players.

Read the entire article here.

Below are the standings for the teams currently out of the playoffs (or hovering around a playoff spot).  Based on the number of games each team has remaining, we have determined the highest point total each team can finish the season with and, mathematically, the highest they can finish in the draft lottery.  As well, if a team reaches the “magic #” in points, it is mathematically impossible for them to finish in the bottom 5 and have a shot at landing the top pick.  It is possible that teams with an “n/a” as the “magic #” fall out of the lottery, it just means that they cannot be mathematically eliminated .

How will it all turn out come April 12th?  In today’s Numbers Game, we project the final NHL standings based on each team’s record in the previous number of games that they have remaining.  So, for example, the Bruins have 9 games left to play, so we looked at their record in the previous 9 games.

What does this mean for your team?  Well, I hope for your sake that you are not a Habs fan as the Sens would actually slip into 8th spot if both teams continue at their current pace.  In the West, the Sharks would maintain their claim to top seed, the Cancuks would overtake the Flames for the Northwest division title, and the Oilers would hold on to the final playoff seed.  And for all those Leafs fans, rest assured, the Leafs will be in a great position to draft a London Knights prospect. Unfortunately, with the 9th overall pick, the Knights prospect that would be availabe is Nazim Kadri.

Projected 1st round matchups:

EASTERN

(1) Bruins vs. (8) Senators

(2) Devils vs. (7) Hurricanes

(3) Captials vs. (6) Rangers

(4) Flyers vs. (5) Penguins

WESTERN

(1) Sharks vs. (8) Oilers

(2) Red Wings vs. (7) Predators

(3) Canucks vs. (6) Blackhawks

(4) Flames vs. (5) Blue Jackets

Projeted NHL standings:

EASTERN

Surpisngly, there are few changes in the standings.  In fact, under the old points system, the same 8 teams would be heading to the playoffs.  The Canadiens would drop from 5th to 8th in the East, while the Hurricanes and Panthers would both jump 2 spots to 5th and 6th, respectively.   In the West, the top 6 teams would remain the same, while the Oilers and Predators would swap places.  

So if there are minimal differences between the current point system, the old points system and the proposed 3 point system, then what is all the fuss about?

The proposed 3 point system, which has talked about around the hockey world,  would see 3 points distibuted every game.  Instead of giving a team 2 points for a win, regardless of whethey they win in regulation or overtime, under the new system, teams that win the game in regulation will get 3 points.  If a game is tied after regulation, the points are split, with the winning team (either in overtime or shootout) receiving 2 points for the win and the losing team receiving 1 point.

The argument in favour of the change is that the standings based on the current point system create misleading impressions of a team’s performance.  As soon as a game goes into overtime, 3 points are given out, while only 2 points are awarded in games that end after regulation time. It is argued that awarding 3 points inflates teams’ records and obviously their conference rank.  A 3 point regulation win would reward teams that can win the game in regulation time and, arguably, create a more “accurate” picture in the standings.  But would it really?  

In today’s Numbers Game, I looked at whether the proposed 3 point win would actually change the standings. Sure enough, the change was very minimal, but in a league where a 1 point difference could determine whether a team is playoff bound or whether they have home-ice advantage, any change is significant.

Under the proposed change, the New York Rangers would find themselves outside the playoff picture dropping to 10th, while the Hurricanes would move up 2 spots into 7th. The Capitals would move ahead of the Devils to sit 2nd in the East and would be facing the Canes if the playoffs started today.  The Panthers would move up to 5th in the East and would play the Flyers in the first round instead of Brodeur and the Devils. If I am Jim Rutherford or Jacques Martin, the 3 point system would certainly be a change I would support!

In the Western Conference, there would be no change in ranks among the top 5 teams. However, the Wild would jump up to 8th, while the Predators would slide out of a playoff spot into 9th. The Oilers would move into 6th, switching spots with the Blue Jackets, and would face the Flames in the first round.

The 3 point system would clearly have a significant impact on the standings.  There are certianly some strong arguments in favour of switching to that system. The question is whether the GMs will actually support such a “drastic” change.  You never know, who would have thought they would add the shootout to the NHL game?

Continuing on that analysis, in today’s Numbers Game, I assigned each team an aggregate score based on their Goals For and Goals Against Rank.  For example, the Sharks are 2^nd in the league in Goals For and 3^rd in the league in Goals Against.  With an aggregate score of 5, the Sharks have the best aggregate score in the league and have the best overall record. 

Not surprisingly, aggregate scores for Goals For/Against are a much stronger indicator of overall team success.  Out of the Top 10 teams in the league, only the Rangers and Canadiens have aggregate scores that are not ranked among the Top 10. The average points rank for teams among the top 10 in aggregate score is 6.2. In comparison, the average points rank for teams ranked 11^th – 20^th and 21^st -30^th in aggregate scores, is 14.4 and 25.1, respectively.

Illegal Curve’s own Richard Pollock and I were talking about the game and we commented on how impressive Detroit’s offense looked particularly on the power play, yet, as has become a mounting concern as of late, they have struggled mightily in their own end.  And then we asked ourselves, do we have a new Numbers Game article here? Alas, we do.

In today’s Numbers Game, I compared each team’s power play and penalty kill rank to their overall point total. However, instead of analyzing the power play rank and penalty kill rank individually, I assigned each team an aggregate score by adding their power play rank to their penalty kill rank.  So, for example, the Detroit Red Wings have the top power play in the league, but their penalty kill efficiency is only 77.6%, which ranks 27^th in the league.  Their aggregate score is 28, which is the 14^th best score in the league.

The Sharks have the best aggregate score in the league (7) as they have the 2^nd best power play and 5^th best penalty kill efficiency.  They also have the 2^nd most points in the league.  However, the 2^nd place team in aggregate score is the Minnesota Wild who are 19^th in points. While the top 10 teams in aggregate score do include the likes of the Bruins (1^st), Capitals (tied 4^th), Devils (tied 4^th), and Flames (6^th), they also include the 24^th ranked Blues and the 27^th ranked Sens.

Though not a perfect correlation, teams that have a higher aggregate rank do tend to rank higher in points.  The average points rank for the teams in the top 10 in aggregate rank is 11.  The average points rank for teams who rank between 11^th – 20^th in aggregate score is 14, while teams that rank 21^st-30^th in aggregate score have an average points rank of 21.

Following up on this week’s Numbers Game, next week we will look at the aggregate scores for goals for/against in comparison to team point totals.  Stay tuned.

Today’s Numbers Game looks at the defensive side of the shots/goals analysis:  Do teams that give up more shots against give up more goals?  It would certainly seem like a logical inference and we have already seen that more shots mean more goals on the offensive side of the game.  However, the numbers tell a different story. 

Out of the top 10 teams in shots against/game (SA/g), only 3 have a team goals against/game (GA/g) in the top 10 in the league.  In fact, the Leafs, who have a league-worst 3.55 GA/g, and the Stars, who have the 5^th worse GA/g in the league, are ranked 6^th and 3^rd, respectively, in SA/g.  On the other side of the spectrum, the Panthers allow a league-worst 33.7 SA/g, but they rank 7^th in GA/g.

Not surprisingly, the Bruins, riding the awkward goaltending style of Tim Thomas to win after win, have the best GA/g in the league.  However, they are giving up more than 30 shots against every game and are ranked 20^th in that department.  The Wild, with the 2^nd best GA/g, sit 19^th.

As the numbers suggest, there is only a small correlation between shots against and goals against.  While teams focus on shot prevention, their success, at least for this season, ultimately seem to lie in the hands of their goaltenders.

The numbers confirm it, to a certain degree (check stats below).  The Wings lead the league in shots/game and with 3.54 goals/game, they lead the league in that category as well.  In fact, there are only 3 teams in the top 10 in goals/game that are not ranked in the top 10 in shots (Bruins, Flyers and Penguins).   The average team ranking in goals/game among the top 10 in shots is 10.1.

However, an interesting trend appears among the teams ranked from 11^th -20^th in shots and those ranked from 21^st -30^th.  Out of the teams ranked amongst the lowest in the league in shots, there are only 2 teams that rank among the lowest (21^st-30^th) in goals/game.  In fact the average goals/game ranking among the teams ranked 21^st-30^th in shots/game is 15.3 compared to the 20.5 average ranking for teams located in the middle of the pack for shots (11^th-20^th).

Team	Shots/G	Shots Rank	Goals/G	Goals Rank
DET	35.6	1	3.54	1
SJS	34.5	2	3.42	3
WSH	32.4	3	3.22	5
CGY	32.3	4	3.18	6
NYR	32.1	5	2.43	28
CHI	31.9	6	3.31	4
TOR	31.5	7	2.94	10
CAR	31.5	7	2.49	26
NJD	31.1	9	3.06	8
MTL	30.4	10	2.94	10
ANA	30	11	2.81	16
BUF	29.6	12	2.84	14
COL	29.6	12	2.65	21
CBJ	29.5	14	2.66	20
TBL	29.4	15	2.54	24
OTT	29.4	15	2.4	29
BOS	29.3	17	3.43	2
NSH	29.3	17	2.39	30
NYI	29.2	19	2.47	27
LAK	29.1	20	2.56	22
PHI	29	21	3.18	6
DAL	29	21	2.9	12
FLA	28.8	23	2.78	17
VAN	28.1	24	2.84	14
EDM	28.1	24	2.78	17
STL	27.9	26	2.78	17
MIN	27.8	27	2.55	23
ATL	27.7	28	2.86	13
PHX	27.7	28	2.51	25
PIT	27.1	30	3.02	9

Teams with the best differential will appear from top to bottom (Where teams rank in goal differential will be in parenthesis):

1.       Detroit Red Wings: +8.0 (3)

2.       San Jose Sharks: +7.6 (2)

3.       Washington Capitals: +2.6 (7)

4.       Calgary Flames: +2.5 (9)

5.       Toronto Maple Leafs: +2.5 (29)

6.       Los Angeles Kings: +2.1 (21)

7.       Chicago Blackhawks: +2.0 (4)

8.       New Jersey Devils: +1.8 (5)

9.       Carolina Hurricanes: +1.8 (23)

10.   Columbus Blue Jackets: +1.3 (17)

11.   Dallas Stars: +1.3 (25)

12.   New York Rangers: +0.9 (12)

13.   Ottawa Senators: +0.9 (23)

14.   Montreal Canadiens: +0.6 (6)

15.   Nashville Predators: +0.6 (26)

16.   Colorado Avalanche: +0.1 (20)

17.   Buffalo Sabres: -0.7 (11)

18.   Anaheim Ducks: -0.9 (14)

19.   Boston Bruins: -1.5 (1)

20.   Vancouver Canucks: -1.8 (13)

21.   St. Louis Blues: -1.8 (22)

22.   Philadelphia Flyers: -2.4 (8)

23.   Minnesota Wild: -2.6 (10)

24.   Pittsburgh Penguins: -3.3 (15)

25.   Tampa Bay Lightning: -3.4 (27)

26.   Edmonton Oilers: -3.4 (18)

27.   New York Islanders: -3.8 (30)

28.   Phoenix Coyotes: -4.2 (19)

29.   Atlanta Thrashers: -4.5 (28)

30.   Florida Panthers: -5.3 (16)

First, let’s establish that these shot counts obviously do not take into account scoring chances/quality of shots, but even so, I think something can be taken from these stats; especially in relation to the goal differential numbers put together on Tuesday.

Looking at success in both categories, there are six teams that sit in the top ten in goal differential that also find themselves in the top ten in goal differential.  Is that a coincidence? I would say most certainly not.  Generally, teams that have the puck in the other team’s end, get more shots on net and consequently score.  I know that is a simplification of the game but it really does hold true.

Now, I’m sure you are asking about the team’s at the top that have horrible goal differentials (Los Angeles and Toronto).  Well, since the Kings have had Jonathan Quick (7 wins and 5 losses) manning the net in SoCal, that team has actually been playing quite well.  His save percentage is .918 and his G.A.A. 2.42.  Contrast that with the poor numbers of Jason LaBarbera and Erik Ersberg and you can see how important Quick has been.  Simply, goaltending can sure make a significant difference. 

That, of course, leads us to the Maple Leafs.  Goaltending has certainly not been a strong point for that team this season.  Look at Vesa Toskala’s numbers: He is a horrible 43^rd in the entire NHL in save percentage at .884.  Meanwhile, his G.A.A. is 3.31.  So, as much as shot differential will help, at the end of the day you still need somebody between the pipes to stop the puck.

Conversely, let’s look at the teams that are in the top ten in goal differential but are in the bottom ten in shot differential.  Philadelphia gives up almost 2.5 shots more per game than they produce.  Generally, that is not a good sign (as you can see by the teams surrounding them in the bottom ten).  However, the Flyers have some of the top scorers in the entire NHL.  More importantly, they have some of the most efficient shooters in the NHL.  Mike Knuble, Simon Gagne, Joffrey Lupul Jeff Carter and Scott Hartnell are all in the top 60 in the NHL in shooting percentage.  Considering there are 30 NHL teams that means that the Flyers have three more players than average sitting in the top 60 in shooting percentage.

Okay, so now you are probably asking where Minnesota fits into this rationale.  Well, that is difficult to say.  They don’t shoot particularly well, but one thing they do extremely well is stop the puck.  Looking at the two goaltenders there, leaves us with a fair idea for why Minnesota still succeeds while giving up just over 2.5 shots-per-game than they put on net.  The team’s starting netminder Niklas Backstrom is fourth in the league in shooting percentage (.927) and fifth in G.A.A. (2.19).  Further, the team’s backup netminder Josh Harding has a .929 save percentage and a 2.17 G.A.A.  Sure the team’s netminding is a significant factor in team success, but let’s not think that these particular goaltenders are the simple reason for that success.  The Wild has been successful in between the pipes consistently for a few years now.  As our friend James Mirtle pointed out, Minnesota has won a number of goaltending awards with different netminders at the helm.  Therefore, the Minnesota system is as much, or more, a reason for the team’s success as the team’s netminders are.

In the end, I’d say the NHL’s best teams are the ones that able to both outshoot and outscore their opponents on a nightly basis.  In my opinion, those lower seeded playoff teams better try and avoid facing the Wings, Sharks, Flames, Devils, Capitals and Blackhawks in the playoffs. Obvious you say? Maybe so, but, at least in this writer’s opinion, Boston doesn’t look as scary as it once did.

The tie breaking procedures are as follows:
1) winning %
2) game won
3) head-to-head points
4) goal differential

To be fair, it would not be appropriate to use point production as the sole gauge of whether a player, like Crosby, is deserving of the “Great One” title. The NHL will almost certainly never see another player score 200 points. Today’s NHL is not the same free-flowing, offensive friendly game that Gretzky was able to exploit game after game in the 80’s.

Instead, comparing a player’s point production to the rest of the players in that season provides a much better indication of how good that player is. In today’s Numbers Game I compared the point total for the leading scorer in each season since 1980 to the player who finished second in scoring and the players who round out the top 5. There is no disputing that Gretzky is the best player of all-time.

When Gretzky scored 212 goals in 1982, he had 65 more points than the player who finished second and 74.25 points more than the average of the rest of the top 5. In 1987, Gretzky’s 183 points was 69.4% higher than the second ranked player, who scored 108 points, and over 71% higher than the average of the top 5. In fact, from 1982 – 1987 during his heyday, Gretzky scored at least 65 more points (44% higher) than the second leading scorer. By comparison, Lemieux’s highest differential was in 1989 when his 199 points was only 18.5% (31 points) more than the second leading scorer. Since the lockout, Crosby’s 5.3% differential was the highest, which was 6 points more than second place Thornton.

The numbers speak for themselves. In the last 25 years, no one has come close to Gretzky. And in the next 25 years, we will be saying the same thing. Gretzky did play hockey when the goal judge was far more likely to suffer from carpel tunnel syndrome, but so did the other players that played with him. Gretzky is the best player to every play hockey and he is the best player that will ever play.

If this has made you admire Gretzky’s accomplishments even more, maybe that will sway you to vote ‘yes’ on Ilegal Curve’s most recent poll. Feel free to use the comments section below to explain why he is/isn’t the greatest of all-time.

For Illegal Curve, I am Adam Gutkin.

In today’s Numbers Game, I used the average goals scored per game for each season as a means of comparing goal production in each season. I argue that goal production in a given year should be measured against every other player’s production in that year. Therefore, comparing average goals scored per game provides a comparative index to measure “every other player’s” performance in that year.

Through this analysis, I derived what the equivalent goal production would be in each season. So, for example, in 2008, the average goals scored was 5.59. In 1994, when Bure also scored 60 goals, the average goals score per game was 6.49 which is 16% higher than in 2008. Therefore, Ovechkin’s 60 is the equivalent of scoring 69.6 goals in 1994, while Bure’s 60 is the equivalent of scoring 51.8 goals in 2008.

So how do Mogilny’s 76 compare to Hull’s 72 or Lemieux’s 86? Well, after conducting the analysis for each of the last 20 seasons, I have compiled a top 5 list of goal production that factors in the average goals scored per game in the year they scored them.

1. Hull – 86 goals (1991)
2. Lemieux – 85 goals (1989)
3. Lemieux – 69 goals (1996)
4. Ovechkin – 60 goals (2008)
5. Bure – 59 goal (2001)

Interestingly, Selanne’s record setting rookie campaign in 1993, where he scored 76 goals for the Winnipeg Jets ranks 7th. Hull’s 72 goals in 1990, where the average was 7.37 GPG, is 13th on the list.

Is it likely we will see a player score 80 goals in a season again? Probably not. Though I suppose if anyone could do, I would place my money on Ovechkin being that guy. But, as we have seen, scoring 60 goals in today’s NHL ranks right up there with the incredible seasons that Hull and Lemieux had in the early 90’s.

For Illegal Curve, I am Adam Gutkin.

Goal Production over last 20 years (click on image to enlarge)