From Wikipedia:

Pythagorean expectation is a formula invented by Bill James to estimate how many games a baseball team “should” have won based on the number of runs they scored and allowed. Comparing a team’s actual and Pythagorean winning percentage can be used to evaluate how lucky (or alternatively how “clutch”) that team was (by examining the variation between the two winning percentages). The term is derived from the formula’s resemblance to the Pythagorean theorem.

The basic formula is:

where Win% is the winning percentage generated by the formula. The expected number of wins would be the expected winning percentage multiplied by the number of games played.

Applied to hockey, the formula looks like this:

Win% = (Goals For^2)/((Goals For^2) + (Goals Against^2))

*Note actual points should be higher because the formula does not factor in overtime losses.

Any surprises?  Comments? There are certainly flaws with a) the theorem itself (that has been refined numerous times), and b) its application to hockey (doesn’t factor in the overtime loss).  But I am not a statistician and this was done for fun not to make any worthwhile predictions.  Please feel free to criticize/correct my work.  Also, the formula only applies to a team’s remaining games.

Dedicated to Michael Remis

After a horrendous start to the 2009-2010 campaign (0-7-1) the Toronto Maple Leafs have picked up their game.  The Maple Leafs have used a 7-3-1 stretch to bring their record to 10-14-7.

The reason for Toronto’s recent success?

“We’re just doing the things that we should do,” said Maple Leafs forward Jason Blake. “We use our speed and forecheck and make it tough on defensemen. If we don’t do that, we’re easy to play against. The last few games, we’ve been doing that. We’ve been getting rewarded. We’ve just got to keep doing it.”

Though Toronto remains in 14th place in the East with 27 points, they trail Florida by only one point and are only five points out of a playoff spot.

If you are brave enough, Toronto is available at 200/1 to win the Stanley Cup at 5dimes.com

2. The Los Angeles Kings have the third most points in the NHL

You knew the Los Angeles Kings were having a good season, but did you know they trail only San Jose and Washington for the most points in the league?

After a shootout victory over the Phoenix Coyotes, the Kings moved to 20-10-3, good for 43 points.  The Kings have been winning at home (9-4-2) and on the road (11-6-1), and have scored the second most goals in the Western Conference (103).

The Kings have not lost in regulation in their last seven games (6-0-1).

Los Angeles is available at +4400 to win the Stanley Cup at Unibet.com

3. The Chicago Blackhawks are not running away with the Central Division

This is not a knock on the 19-7-3 Blackhawks, but instead reflects how well the Nashville Predators have been playing as of late.

The Central Division was projected to be a two horse race between Chicago and the Detroit Red Wings.  During the early part of season, it looked like the Blackhawks would run away with the division, but now lead the resurgent Predators by only three points.

Despite the fact that the Central division is close, odds on Chicago to win the division have increased from +120 before the season, to -400 now at Ladbrokes.com.

The Nashville Predators are 18-11-2 and are an impressive 11-3-1 in their last fifteen games.  They are 10/1 to win the Central at Ladbokres.com, and 80/1 to win the Stanley Cup at 5dimes.com

4. The Detroit Red Wings are not occupying a playoff spot

Sure, this Red Wings team is not the same dominant team as previous years, but at 14-11-5 Detroit sits in 11th place in the Western Conference.

Losing Marian Hossa and Jiri Hudler was bad enough, but the Wings have also had to endure a string of injuries.  Daniel Cleary, Niklas Kronwall, Jason Williams, Valtteri Filppula, and Johan Franzen are all out with injury.

“Every night we play with six forwards who didn’t play for us last year,” said coach Mike Babcock about his revamped offense.

The Red Wings have typically been between 4/1 and 8/1 to win the Cup, are available at odds as high as 16/1 at Ladbrokes.

5. The Columbus Blue Jackets have given up the most goals in the Western Conference

Are you sure Ken Hitchcock is coaching this team?

Not only have the Blue Jackets given up the most goals in the West, but they have scored 95 times.  They are killing penalties at a rate of under 80% but they are percentage points behind the Anaheim Ducks for the best power-play in the Conference.

A big reason for the Jackets’ problems giving up goals has been the play of Steve Mason.  In what has been described as a “sophomore slump,” Mason is 10-8-5 with a 3.29 goals against average and an .892 save percentage.  Last season,  in leading Columbus to its first playoff appearance and winning the Calder Trophy, Mason was 33-20-7 with a 2.29 goals against average and a .916 save percentage.  He also led the NHL with 10 shutouts.

Columbus is available at 50/1 to win the Stanley Cup.

The Buffalo Sabres, Atlanta Thrashers, Ottawa Senators, New York Islanders, Los Angeles Kings, Colorado Avalanche, Phoenix Coyotes, Dallas Stars, and Nashville Predators all occupy playoff spots.

The Philadelphia Flyers, New York Rangers, Montreal Canadiens, Carolina Hurricanes, Vancouver Canucks, Columbus Blue Jackets, Detroit Red Wings, St. Louis Blues, and Anaheim Ducks would miss the playoffs if the season ended today.

But the season doesn’t end today.  The Avs are 3-6-4 in their last 13 after opening the season a scorching 12-3-2, and the Bruins are 14-8-5 after starting the season a pedestrian 6-7-1.

Every season produces longshots and overachievers, and bettors must be careful not to place too much emphasis on a team’s prior achievements and pre-season projections, when, at a certain point in the season, a team’s record is its record.

It’s a condition known as Rays Malaise and it led to a handful of  bettors making a lot of money on the Tampa Bay Rays winning the AL East and American League Pennant two years ago.

Yeah I know they are 25 games over .500, but it’s the Rays.

Sports are a team game, and one of the reasons we play/watch/bet on sports, is that anything can happen.  Who thought the Columbus Blue Jackets had a chance to make the playoffs last year?

Eventually bad teams get better.  The Chicago Blackhawks were 60/1 at one sports book at the beginning of last season, and now they are one of the favorites in the Western Conference.

Are any of the NHL’s perennial bottom feeders on the verge of something special?

The New York Islanders have been competitive in nearly every game this season.  The Atlanta Thrashers are one of the highest scoring teams in the league and they are getting great goaltending.  Nashville, led by Pekka Rinne, has been on a tear over the last 11 games.  Phoenix and Los Angeles are well above .500.

It is unlikely that these five teams will make the playoffs, but their past failures shouldn’t prevent you from placing a bet on them at long odds.  Bettors aren’t the only ones that suffer from Rays Malaise.

Here are the best odds on the Islanders, Thrashers, Predators, Coyotes, and Kings.  I would include the Avalanche but (a) they made too much noise at the beginning of the season (and oddsmakers took notice) and (b) they have been slumping lately.

New York Islanders – 100/1 to win the Eastern Conference (Bwin.com)

Atlanta Thrashers – 40/1 to win the Eastern Conference (Bwin.com)

Nashville Predators – 100/1 to win the Stanley Cup (5Dimes.com)

Phoenix Coyotes – 50/1 to win the Western Conference (stanjames.com)

Los Angeles Kings – 22/1 to win the Western Conference (stanjames.com)

There are many games left to play, but remember: at some point in the season, a team’s record is its record.  Your job is to figure out when that is.

Red Wings goaltender Chris Osgood spoke out at the beginning of the season, commenting that the referees “call the most ridiculous things for the first two months of the season trying to jack up the scores then they call nothing as the season goes along.”

A month and a half later and most games are going under the total. Oddsmakers usually set totals of 5.5 and 6 goals, but the last few weeks has seen more than a few totals of “5″.

The Atlanta Thrashers, the NHL’s highest scoring team, has gone over the total the highest percent of time in the league – 64.7 percent (11 of 17 games). More impressive, is that Atlanta has had a total of “6″ set for every game this season.

The New Jersey Devils have allowed a league low 50 goals, and have gone under the total 21.7% of the time (5-16-2 record) – the lowest percent in the league.

The Phoenix Coyotes have gone over the total just 24% of the time (6-18-1 record). The Coyotes have scored 60 goals and allowed 61 in 25 games.

New Jersey is one of a handful of teams that should see totals of 5 in the near future. Other teams are Boston, Nashville, St. Louis, Minnesota, and Phoenix.

5 is an important number, because once a game is 2-2, the best that under backers can hope for is a push (tie). During the clutch-and-grab era and during the NHL playoffs, it is not uncommon to see a total as low as 4.5.

Oddsmakers have yet to set a total of 6.5 this year. The closest was an October 29th game between Washington and Atlanta. The total was set at 6 goals, -131.

Totals are a fun way to bet a game – especially if you don’t particularly care for either team. Betting the over is almost always more fun, but lately the under has been coming in a higher percentage of the time.

Here is an excerpt:

Washington Capitals at Toronto Maple Leafs (+120, 6)

The basics

Fresh off the “Battle for 29th Part Deux,” the Toronto Maple Leafs meet the Washington Capitals for the second time this season.

Toronto is 3-11-6 and is on a five game losing streak (0-4-1). Washington is 13-4-4 and has won five of six games.

The Capitals defeated the Leafs 6-4 earlier this season.

Read the entire article at Covers.com

It can also be a way to go for a big payout by taking a slight favorite to win on the puckline, and a way to play safe, by taking a slight underdog to win on the puckline.

Who have been the best and worst teams on the puckline this year?

Best

Calgary Flames – 13-7, +13.01 units

The Calgary Flames have been on of the better teams in the NHL and have been the best team in the NHL on the puckline. Calgary is 6-7 as a 1.5 goal favorite and 7-0 as a 1.5 goal underdog.

New York Islanders – 17-4, +12.79 units

The Islanders have exceeded expectations this year, but they are still in the Atlantic division basement. The reason for New York’s success ATS is because they are usually underdogs (and +1.5 on the puckline) and have gone to overtime ten times already. Not only are the Islanders 15-4 at +1.5, when they have been favorites (against Atlanta and Edmonton) they have covered the -1.5 goal spread.

New York Rangers – 12-9, +956 units

The Rangers are third best in the NHL against the spread. This is somewhat of a surprise because after a strong start to the season New York is 4-8-1 in its last 13 games. The Rangers have a 7-8 record as favorites, and a 5-1 record as underdogs.

Worst

Minnesota Wild – 6-15, -1535 units

The Minnesota Wild are at the bottom of the Northwest division at 7-12-2. Minnesota has been a less than respectable 6-6 as underdogs (+1.5) this season. The real damage has been done with Minnesota being favored. The Wild have won 5 out of the 9 times they have been favored, but have yet to win by more than one goal. They are 0-9 on the puckline as favorites.

Carolina Hurricanes – 8-13, -1263 units

What’s even more disconcerting than the Hurrcanes’ ATS record is that oddsmakers have made them favorites seven times this year. Carolina is just 1-6 on the puckline as a favorite, and 7-7 as an underdog.

Anaheim Ducks – 7-13, -1124 units

The Anaheim Ducks must be considered one of the most disappointing teams in the Western Conference. They are in 14th place despite having talent to compete with the second tier teams in the West. Anaheim has been a favorite in 10 of its 20 games this season, and has only won two of those games by more than one goal. As underdogs they are 5-5 ATS.

Last year the Colorado Avalanche were the worst team in the league ATS at 37-45, -24.59 units. Can you guess who was he best team on the puckline was last year? They finished 49-32 ATS and netted bettors +34.49 units.

The Penguins, Devils, Flyers, and Rangers all look like playoff-bound teams, and the New York Islanders have exceeded expectations.

Here is what the Atlantic Division odds looked like before the start of the season:

Atlantic Division

Team………………………………Odds

Pittsburgh Penguins…………..-125

Philadelphia Flyers……………+320

New Jersey Devils……………..+700

New York Rangers…………….+750

New York Islanders……………+6600

Ari’s take – Philly +320: While the Pens are the best team in the division, do they really have >55% to win this division? If they get solid goaltending the Flyers could emerge as the best team in the Conference – I would take them at +320 to win the division.
What’s one thing have we learned about each team the first 20 games of the season?

1. The Jacques Lemaire era is back in New Jersey

New Jersey is tops in the league in goals against average, allowing an average of 2.06 goals/game. The Lemaire style has helped the Devils jump out to an incredible 9-0 start on the road, where they allowed only 15 goals in 9 games.

2. The Pittsburgh Penguins are not Invincible

It all started on the California trip, where the Pens were 1-13 with one tie since 1999. After defeating the Ducks, Pittsburgh lost to Los Angeles and San Jose, before losing in Boston and finally losing last night to the Devils at home. Of most concern is the fact that the Penguins have scored one goal in their last three games.

3. Ray Emery has been the answer in net for the Philadelphia Flyers

20 games into the season, Emery has the Philadelphia Flying "high" in the East

Sure 60 games is plenty of time for a meltdown, but Ray Emery has been spectacular this season. In his return from the KHL, Emery is 10-3-1 with a .918 SV% and a 2.18 GAA. In Emery’s most recent game he exacted revenge on his former team, the Ottawa Senators, with a 5-1 win.

4. The New York Rangers Believe in John Tortorella

It has been somewhat of a bumpy ride for the Blueshirts this season, as a 7-1-0 start has faded to a 10-8-1 record. Nevertheless, players continue to work hard for Torts. Recent losses have been due to bad luck, injuries, and untimely penalties.

5. The New York Islanders Have a Young, Exciting Team

They will almost certainly miss the playoffs this season, but there is reason for optimism on Long Island. John Tavares has 14 points in 18 games, and the Tavares-Moulson-Okposo line has emerged as a legitimate number one scoring line. The Islanders are 6-6-6 and have only lost 4 games this season by more than one goal.

Here are the updated Atlantic Division Odds from November 13 (Courtesy of Ladbrokes):

Atlantic Division

Team………………………………Odds

Pittsburgh Penguins…………..-162

New Jersey Devils……………..+360

Philadelphia Flyers……………+550

New York Rangers…………….+600

New York Islanders……………+6600

Who do you think is the best bet to win the Atlantic Division? I like the Flyers even more now at +550 than I did at +320 before the season started.

Carolina tropical storms

So what do oddsmakers think of the Carolina Hurricanes?

On Saturday the Columbus Blue Jackets were -204 favorites against the ‘Canes. It was the first time since 2006 the Blue Jackets were favorites of -200 or greater.

That was before Cam Ward got injured.

Carolina, already missing its two best forwards in Eric Staal and Ray Whitney, will be without the services of its Conn Smythe winning netminder for up to four weeks.

“He (Ward) stabilized us,” said Hurricanes forward Erik Cole. “Everyone has confidence in him to perform.”

Manny Legace has been signed by the ‘Canes to split time in net with Michael Leighton.

The Hurricanes have lost 12 straight games, including six consecutive in regulation.

Read the entire article here.

Who has been the best and worst teams in shootouts?

The Best (2008-2009)

Atlanta Thrashers 7-1

Surprisingly it is not Ilya Kovalchuk (1 goal in 5 shots) that leads the Thrashers in shootout goals. Vyacheslav Kozlov led the Thrashers with six goals in eight attempts.

New Jersey Devils 6-2

New Jersey has had success in the shootout because of its ability to put pucks behind opposing netminders as a team. New Jersey was 12/25 in the extra-extra frame despite having no players shooting over 50%.

Anaheim Ducks 7-3

Jonas Hiller was tops in the league at stopping pucks in the shootout. Hiller was 26/31 (.839) and was the major reason the Ducks won in the shootout 70% of the time.

The Worst

Tampa Bay Lightning 3-10

Not only were the Lightning the worst team in a shootout last year, they are already 0-4 this season in the shootout.

“It’s unacceptable,” said Lightning forward Steven Stamkos. “With the amount of skill we have, it’s just one of those things. There’s really no way to explain it. You have to score.”

In order for bettors to avoid the frustration of losing in a shootout, some sportsbooks offer lines that only include regulation. That way, if the game goes to overtime, at least you get your money back.

No-vechkin

The Washington Capitals announced that Alex Ovechkin is week-to-week with an upper-body strain.

According to Washington Times writer Corey Masisak, the Capitals don’t usually place the “week-to-week” label on a player unless the injury is serious. Washington coach Bruce Boudreau hopes Ovechkin won’t miss more than two weeks.

Boudreau has indicated that Washington will have to play a more defensive game in Ovechkin’s absence.

“A goal a game he scores, so we got to play better defense and cannot allow four or five goals a game.”

In three games without Ovechkin last year the Caps were 1-2, averaging only 1.67 goals per game.

Read the full article here

Why? Both teams’ goaltenders, acquired for next to nothing, are off to incredible starts to the season.

Phoenix Coyotes

Record: 8-4-0, 16 points

Standings: 3rd in Division, 5th in Conference

Best Odds: 28/1 Division (Stan James), 40/1 Conference (Gamebookers), 125/1 Cup (Stan James)

Ilya Bryzgalov has been the main reason for the Coyotes’ early success. He leads the league with three shutouts and has a miniscule GAA of 1.77. Phoenix is on a 6-2-0 run and just won back-to-back road games.

Phoenix coach Dave Tippett understands that solid goaltending is key to the Coyotes’ success. “That’s what I think the identity of our team is – we’re going to score by committee and get good goaltending that gives us a chance to win,” said Tippett.

Bryzgalov was acquired on waivers at the beginning of the 2007-2008 season from Anaheim.

Colorado Avalanche

Record: 10-1-2, 22 points

Standings: 1st in Division, 1st in Conference

Best Odds (note: Oddsmakers have significantly adjusted the odds on Colorado): 4/1 Division (Stan James), 22/1 Conference (Stan James), 50/1 Cup (Canbet)

Colorado, led by the goaltender known only as Cranderson, has taken the NHL by surprise. After Friday, the Avs will already have completed a seven-game road trip, and are in the midst of another trip that started with back-to-back wins in Edmonton and Calgary, continues to San Jose on Friday, and then back to Vancouver on Sunday.

Cranderson has started every game for the Avs this season, has two shutouts and a 1.97 GAA. Most impressive however is his .940 save percentage. Colorado has been outshot in 9 of its 10 wins, and was tied at 36 shots apiece for the other game.

“(We’d) like to cut down on the number of shots, and as a coach you’re always looking for areas to improve,” coach Joe Sacco said. “But if Andy (Cranderson) sees the shots from the outside, he’s going to stop them.”

Cranderson is making a mere $1.5 million this season and was signed as a free agent after spending last season as Tomas Vokoun’s backup in Florida.

Authors note: this article is not meant to discount the torrid start the Sabres have had to the season. They are currently the top team in TSN’s power rankings.

As Richard’s Puck Prospectus article Cinderella and the Disappointment highlights, some unexpected teams are off to hot starts, while other teams, expected to be among the league’s best, are struggling.

Here is the second version of the rankings.  I’m not naming the tiers, rather I’m categorizing them by the average odds each team is available at.  Have the oddsmakers adjusted to teams’ hot/cold starts?

Tier 1: (5-1)

1. Pittsburgh

After an 8-1-0 start the Penguins have emerged as the clear favorite to win the Stanley Cup.

Tier 2: (7-1 to 10-1)

2. Detroit  3. San Jose  4. Chicago  5. Washington

Slow starts by the Wings and Sharks have dropped them from the top tier.  Chicago is having goaltending issues and Washington is looking like an offensive force.

Tier 3: (11-1 to 20-1)

6. Boston  7. Philadelphia  8. Calgary  9. Vancouver 10. New York Rangers

Boston moves down after a slow, injury-plagued start to the season. Philadelphia and Calgary remain in this group after a solid start to the season. Vancouver drops in odds but stays in this tier following a slow start, and the New York Rangers move up from the  following an excellent beginning to the sesaon.

Tier 4: (21-1 to 30-1)

11. Anaheim 12. New Jersey

Anaheim drops out of the “contenders” group after a slow start.  New Jersey has not been getting respect from oddsmakers the last few years, and are available at an average odds of 29-1 despite a respectable (5-3-0) start to the season.

Tier 5: (31-1 to 50-1)

13. Carolina  14. Ottawa  15. St. Louis  16. Columbus  17. Buffalo 18. Montreal 19. Los Angeles  20. Edmonton  21. Dallas

Other than the slow-starting ‘Canes and Habs and fashionable pre-season darkhorse pick St.Louis, this group is made up of teams that are over-achieving through the first 1/8 of the season.

Tier 6: (50-1 to 80-1)

22. Tampa Bay  23. Colorado  24. Minnesota  25. Nashville 26. Florida 27. Toronto

In this tier we can see how oddsmakers have not adjusted to many teams’ hot/cold starts.  Toronto and the Islanders are by far the two worst teams in the league right now and Toronto’s struggles are not reflected in the odds.  Colorado, on the other hand, has been playing well and is offered at 100-1 at one site to win the Stanley Cup.

Tier 7: (81-1 to 100-1)

28. Atlanta Thrashers 29. Phoenix Coyotes

It is early, but both of these teams are playing well and are above .500.  Oddsmakers have not yet adjusted prices for these two teams.

Tier New York Islanders: (150-1)

30. New York Islanders

Though they have their own tier, they have been considerably better than the Maple Leafs this year.

A losing equation

Minnesota Wild backers are disappointed this season with their club’s 1-6-0 record.

Minnesota recently completed a grueling five-game road trip that included three games in four nights against Anaheim, Edmonton and Vancouver.

Michael Russo of the Star Tribune described the Wild’s season using the following equation: new coach + new players + new philosophy + heavy road schedule = early season struggles.

Wild forward Andrew Brunette is not bothered by his team’s slow start: “We’re five games under .500 and we just go from there. You can beat yourselves up over it, but I thought we did some good things on this trip,” said Brunette.

Minnesota plays six of its next nine games at home.

Read the entire article here

Parity and the Puckline

So, how have those puckline bets been going?

Through Sunday, 34 of the first 63 games (54 percent) of the NHL campaign have been one-goal games, creating lopsided results for bettors playing the puckline.

According to Buffalo Sabres Coach Lindy Ruff, “this league (the NHL) is so tight, it’s so close, that you can get outshot badly and you can still win a game…but there’s not much that separates one team from another now.”

The Buffalo News’, John Vogl suggests that the salary-cap system implemented by the NHL is creating parity. He points to the 2008-2009 season as evidence, where only seven points separated sixth from 12th place in the Western Conference and eight points divided fourth from 10th in the East.

Click here to read the entire article on Covers.com

Covers.com receives over 45 Million visits a year, and is the #1 Sports Betting Industry site according to Hitwise.

This week I will look at the five teams that have improved and declined the most according to oddsmakers.

Improved

Will the B's keep winning?

Boston Bruins

Oct 2009 Odds: +1200

Oct 2008 Odds: +4900

Change: +285%

Boston was last year’s surprise team and congratulations (sort of) if you had them at +4900 to win the Cup. This year oddsmakers estimate the Bruins as having a 7.7% chance to win the Cup, up from 2.0% at this time last year. The Bruins are off to a slow start, but it is way to early to worry.

Chicago Blackhawks

Oct 2009 Odds: +1100

Oct 2008 Odds: +3300

Change: +183%

Last year the Blackhawks were a trendy pick as an up and coming team. They delivered, going all the way to the Conference semi-finals. This year oddsmakers give Chicago an 8.3% chance to win the Cup, up from 2.9% last year.

Columbus Blue Jackets

Oct 2009 Odds: +5400

Oct 2008 Odds: +15000

Change: +175%

Behind rookie goaltender Steve Mason, the Jackets came out of nowhere to earn their first trip to the playoffs. Though they are still longshots, they are now at 1.8% to win the Cup, up from last October’s prediction of .66%.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Oct 2009 Odds: +7500

Oct 2008 Odds: +15000

Change: +99%

No explanation for this one. Not like the Leafs have improved. This will correct itself soon enough. Toronto is being given a 1.3% chance to win the Cup this year, up from .66% last season.

Vancouver Canucks

Oct 2009 Odds: +2000

Oct 2008 Odds: +4000

Change: +95%

Vancouver surprised many last year with their offensive skills and advanced all the way to the second round of the playoffs. Oddsmakers have now given them a 4.8%, up from 2.43% last year.

Declined

Montreal Canadiens

Will Carey Price's Habs bounce back?

Oct 2009 Odds: +5000

Oct 2008 Odds: +1000

Change: -364%

Montreal was the darling of the 2007-2008 NHL season. Expectations were nowhere close to being met last season as the Habs limped into the playoffs. They were given a 9.1% chance to win it all last year – that probability has dropped to 2.0% this season

Colorado Avalanche

Oct 2009 Odds: +12500

Oct 2008 Odds: +4400

Change: -180%

Oddsmakers predicted the Avs to be respectable last year, and gave them a 2.2% chance to win the Cup. They were bit by injuries and their lack of goaltending was exposed. This year they are projected to finish near the bottom of the Western Conference and are being given a .79% chance to win the Cup.

Minnesota Wild

Oct 2009 Odds: +6600

Oct 2008 Odds: +2700

Change: -139%

The low odds on Minnesota reflect their hot start last year. The Wild are expected to compete for one of the bottom playoff spots in the West this year. This year, oddsmakers estimate the Wild as having a 1.5% to win the Cup, down from 3.6% last year.

Dallas Stars

Oct 2009 Odds: +5900

Oct 2008 Odds: +2500

Change: -131%

The Stars were a major disappointment last year. They started slow, made a run during the middle of the season, and limped toward the finish line. Not much is expected from Dallas this year, and they have dropped from having a 3.8% chance to win the Cup to only a 1.7% chance this year.

New York Rangers

Oct 2009 Odds: +3500

Oct 2008 Odds: +1500

Change: -125%

The Rangers started the 2008-2009 campaign with high expectations. They had a disappointing season but got it together in time to scare the Capitals. This year, expectations are tempered and probably accurate. The Rangers were given a 6.3% to win
the Stanley Cup last year, much higher than their current probability of 2.8% they are being given now.

Eastern Conference

Atlantic Division

Team………………………………Odds

Pittsburgh Penguins…………..-125

Philadelphia Flyers……………+320

New Jersey Devils……………..+700

New York Rangers…………….+750

New York Islanders……………+6600

Ari’s take – Philly +320: While the Pens are the best team in the division, do they really have >55% to win this division? If they get solid goaltending the Flyers could emerge as the best team in the Conference – I would take them at +320 to win the division.

Northeast Division

Team………………………………Odds

Boston Bruins……………………-120

Montreal Canadiens……………+500

Ottawa Senators………………..+550

Buffalo Sabres…………………..+700

Toronto Maple Leafs…………..+1300

Ari’s take – Boston -120: How can the Leafs only be +1300? Boston is the class of this division and should win it handily. It will take a major success story from one of the other four teams to contend for the Northeast.

Southeast Division

Team………………………………Odds

Washington Capitals…………..-182

Carolina Hurricanes……………+350

Florida Panthers………………..+1100

Tampa Bay Lightning………….+1200

Atlanta Thrashers……………….+3300

Ari’s take – pass: It seems like Washington is a lock to win the division, but at -182 it’s not worth it. Carolina finished strongly last year and the Caps do have a question mark in net to start the season.

Western Conference

Central Division

Team………………………………Odds

Detroit Red Wings……………..+115

Chicago Blackhawks…………..+160

St. Louis Blues…………………..+1100

Columbus Blue Jackets………..+1700

Nashville Predators…………….+3000

Ari’s take – Detroit +115, Nashville +3000: Detroit was -667 to win the division last year. They are older and facing a much improved division, but at +115 I can’t pass it up. The Preds have a strong blue-line and an excellent goaltender. They will almost certainly lose the division, but at +3000 it’s worth a try.

Northwest Division

Team………………………………Odds

Calgary Flames………………….+155

Vancouver Canucks…………….+160

Edmonton Oilers………………..+550

Minnesota Wild…………………+1000

Colorado Avalanche……………+5000

Ari’s take – pass: I like Calgary to win the division, but not at +155. Maybe the Wild at +1000 offer value on the strength of their goaltending. I would (as I usually do) leave this division alone for betting purposes.

Pacific Division

Team………………………………Odds

San Jose Sharks…………………-154

Anaheim Ducks…………………+300

Dallas Stars………………………+1000

Los Angeles Kings………………+1000

Phoenix Coyotes…………………+6600

Ari’s take – San Jose -154: The Sharks were already heavy favorites before they added Heatley. Can’t see anyone else competing – maybe the Ducks but San Jose should be the favorites for the President’s trophy.

Good luck to all of you on your bets this year!

I have averaged the Stanley Cup odds from 13 different sportsbooks and grouped all 30 teams into tiers based on the average odds on each team to win the Cup.

Tier 1: The Favorites

1. Detroit 2. Pittsburgh 3. San Jose 4. Chicago 5. Boston

No surprises here as the top group consists of the Stanley Cup winner, runner-up, conference semi-finalists, and two regular season powerhouses that struggled in the post-season.

Tier 1b: The Almost Favorite

6. Washington

Though the Caps have the firepower to compete with the top tier of teams, question marks in net have the odds on the Caps slightly higher than these five teams but lower than any teams below them in the rankings.

Tier 2: The Contenders

7. Philadelphia 8. New Jersey 9. Calgary 10. Vancouver 11. Anaheim

These teams are all expected to make the playoffs and are one or two players short of being a top tier team.

Tier 3: The Darkhorses

12. Carolina 13. New York Rangers 14. Montreal

Carolina had a very strong close to the 2008-2009 season and New York and Montreal made some major changes in the offseason.

Tier 4: Playoff Bound?

15. St. Louis 16. Dallas 17. Ottawa 18. Buffalo 19. Edmonton 20. Minnesota 21. Columbus

3 of these 7 teams will probably make the playoffs and 1 will become a legitimate contender. Your job is to tell me which one.

Tier 5: On the Cusp of Mediocrity

22. Nashville 23. Florida 24. Los Angeles

These clubs have young, exciting cores and may be a few years away from making a legitimate run.

Tier 6: Duking it out for Draft Picks

25. Toronto 26. Tampa Bay 27. Colorado 28. Phoenix 29. Atlanta

These teams are longshots to even make the playoffs, nevermind contend for the Stanley Cup. One of these teams may make the playoffs. My guess is Tampa Bay.

Tier 7: A League of Their Own

30. New York Islanders

With odds to win the Stanley Cup of 1.5X higher than their closest competitor the Islanders are primed for a repeat as the worst team in the league.

Whether you are a betting beginner or veteran, it is useful to review the basics before the NHL regular season starts.

In this weeks Frozen Assets, I have put together a quick list of websites to visit when you are doing research for hockey betting season (other than Illegal Curve).

New to betting? Forget what the different types of bets are?

Try the Hockey Betting Guide at Puckline.

Puckline has done a good job explaining different types of bets (Puckline, Moneyline, Canadian Line, Total, Parlay, Futures, Props) and different styles of odds (American, Decimal, Fractional). However, I would definitely avoid their sportsbook recommendations.
Not sure where to open a sports betting account?

Before you open an account you need to do your research. Visit Sportsbook Review to learn about which sportsbooks are safe and which ones are scams. I have written about Sportsbook Review in detail here and here is a link to an old article discussing Ari’s top 5 NHL betting sites. The article is still accurate, though I would remove Will Hill and insert 5Dimes.

What about Pro-Line?

Canadians are able to bet legally on sporting events through provincially run sports lottery parlay games. Each jurisdiction posts their odds online and British Columbia and Atlantic Canada allow residents to place wagers online. Here are the links to the five jurisdictions: BCLC, WCLC, OLG, Loto Quebec, ALC.

These lottery games are generally a big rip-off; the odds are significantly less favourable than a person would find offshore and players must play a minimum of two and sometimes three games in order to have a valid selection. There is a way to improve your edge in pro-line: all you have to do is compare the pro-line odds to the offshore odds.

Where should I do my research before betting on a game?

The most popular and best site I have seen is Covers.com. They have stats and trends on all NHL games for the past 10 years. Rotoworld is also a good site to find out about player injuries and Goaliepost has emerged as the best spot to find out who will be between the pipes

What do I do if I have additional questions?

Send me an e-mail at ari@illegalcurve.com and I will get back to you as soon as I can.

Can Patrick Thoresen lead the Norwegians to gold in the 2010 Olympics?

It’s a quiet time in the NHL. The marquee names have been signed,and training camps have yet to begin. Not much is happening with NHL odds, so this week we will look at 2010 Olympic gold medal odds. Canada is the clear favorite, followed by the Russians and the Swedes.

Six teams have a legitimate chance to win gold, followed by Slovakia and maybe Switzerland.

The rest of the teams will consider any victory over the top teams to be a successful tournament.

.

Here are the odds on each team to win gold:

Team…………………………Odds……………………….Site

Canada………………………+125………………………BWin

Russia……………………….+300………………………Unibet

Sweden………………………+450………………………Bet365

USA…………………………..+800………………………Bet365

Czech Republic…………..+1600……………………..BWin

Finland……………………..+1700……………………..Unibet

Slovakia…………………….+5000……………………..BWin

Switzerland………………..+12400……………………Unibet

Germany……………………+40000……………………Bet365

Belarus………………………+150000………………….BWin

Latvia………………………..+150000………………….BWin

Norway……………………..+200000………………….BWin

 Musts or Busts: Top NHL Offseason Moves

You think the NBA offseason is a circus? The NHL offseason has been busy with marquee talent swapping teams and changing Stanley Cup futures odds. Here are some of the notable deals:

Philadelphia Flyers (+1500) acquire Chris Pronger

Five-time all-star Chris Pronger is now a Philadelphia Flyer.  Pronger is a perfect fit for a Flyers team that has a longstanding tradition of physical, aggressive play. 

Adding the former Hart and Norris trophy winner improves the Flyers’ chances of winning the Stanley Cup, but note that Ray Emery is currently No. 1 on Philadelphia’s goaltending depth chart.

Calgary Flames (+1800) acquire (and Sign) Jay Bouwmeester

Calgary Flames GM Darryl Sutter called Jay Bouwmeester “one of the most complete defensemen in the game.”  The Flames now have a formidable defensive core in Bouwmeester, Dion Phaneuf, and Robyn Reghr. 

Calgary will enter the 2009-2010 season better than the team that lost to the Blackhawks in the first round of last year’s playoffs. 

Read the full article here.

Our concern is whether oddsmakers were paying attention to teams’ free agent acquisitions. Specifically, were the odds adjusted to reflect the events of July 1?

No. Not at all.

Originally this article was going to compare the odds before and after July 1, but nothing has changed. Oddsmakers have not adjusted the odds.

Why? The obvious reason is that not many people care about betting on hockey. Even less people care about betting on hockey futures, and even less people care about betting on hockey futures in early July.

Here is the early edition of the 2010 Stanley Cup odds:

Will it be Tavares, Hedman, or Duchene? Most indicators point to Tavares, but at least one writer feels that it could be Matt Duchene.

A few sports books have been offering odds on which player will go number one. While all agree Tavares is the favorite, each book differs on the odds of him going first overall.

The books that have posted odds on the NHL draft over the past week are “The Greek,” “Stan James,” “Betssafe”, “BetED”, and “Betfair”. Betsafe is the only sports book to still have NHL draft odds posted.

Odds on an event correspond to a percentage change of that event occurring. For example, assuming no vig, an outcome that is +100 has a 50% of happening; an event that is +200 has a 33.3% chance of happening.

John Tavares

Tavares is the clear favorite to be the first pick. Betsafe had Tavares as low as -227 (69.4% chance) earlier this week. Generally, the odds on Tavares to go first overall give him about an 80% chance of being drafted first.

Currently, Tavares is -285 at Betsafe. If you think there is a greater than 74% chance Tavares will be drafted first overall, there is value making this bet.

Victor Hedman

As Tavares’ stock has been falling, Hedman’s has been rising. Many mock drafts and analysts project Hedman to be selected first overall, but ultimately most pundits have gone with Tavares.

The best odds on Hedman were +550 (15.4%) earlier this week at the Greek. Generally, the odds on Hedman to go first overall were at about 20%. Betsafe’s odds on Hedman are +200, implying a 33.3% chance of him being drafted first.

Matt Duchene

Matt Duchene is a long shot to be picked first overall, but has been getting some recognition as a legitimate contender. Stan James had the best odds on Duchene at +1400 (6.7%) to be picked first overall. On average, the odds on Duchene to go first overall were about 10%.

Currently, the Betsafe has odds of +700 on Duchene to be drafted first, implying a 12.5% chance of Duchene being the first selection.

Analysis

Though it looks like Tavares will be selected, anything can happen when it comes to the Islanders. There is no way to know for sure who will be taken first, and betting on the NHL draft would actually make it watchable. The first five minutes at least.

Betsafe also has a number of other interesting props including the number of Swedes drafted in the first round and some head to head props on which player will be drafted first.

Who do you think will go first overall? Better yet, what are the chances of each player going first?

I will discuss the odds and line movement for some of the awards. Richard has also weighed in on who he thinks is going to win.

Hart Trophy: Evgeni Malkin, Alex Ovechkin, Pavel Datsyuk

By all accounts this is a two horse race between Malkin and Ovechkin.

Malkin opened as a slight favorite over Ovechkin at The Greek, but the odds have changed since the opening lines. At the Greek, Ovechkin has gone from +115 to -140, and is now also a favorite at Stan James and Betsson. Ovechkin remains an underdog at BetED, where he is still +115.

Note: For some reason BetED, The Greek, and Stan James all have Steve Mason listed as the third Hart Trophy nominee.

Richard’s Pick: Ovechkin

Ari’s Pick: Ovechkin +115 at BetED

Calder Trophy: Steve Mason, Bobby Ryan, Kris Versteeg

The Greek inexplicably opened with Mason at -160. Obviously I maxed that out and then maxed it out again at -200. The Greek is no longer offering odds on the Calder. Neither is Stan James.

Betsson is offering Mason at -333 which is still good value, and BetED has Mason at -575.

Richard’s Pick: Mason

Ari’s Pick: Mason -333 at Betsson

Vezina Trophy: Tim Thomas, Steve Mason, Niklas Backstrom

Timmy is the heavy favorite here, as the best price on him to win the Vezina is -400 (bet $4 to win $1). I’m not sure if my affinity for the Blue Jackets is affecting me and at risk of angering our Bruins fans, I’m not sure Thomas should be such a heavy favorite.

Why Thomas will win: He led the league in GAA and SV% and led his team to a first place finish in the Eastern Conference.

Why Mason will win: He led the league in shutouts, and was second in GAA while leading a team expected to miss the playoffs to their first trip to the post-season. Also, Thomas only played 54 games.

Richard’s Pick: None (Update from Drew–Richy has contacted me from his scouting trip to say that he likes Tim Thomas for the Vezina)

Ari’s Pick: Not Tim Thomas +350 at the Greek (options are Tim Thomas AND Steve Mason or Nicklas Backstrom)

Norris Trophy: Nick Lidstrom, Zdeno Chara, Mike Green

My initial reaction was to go with Mike Green, but the line movement has indicated clearly that people’s money is on Zdeno Chara.

Lidstrom opened as the favorite at The Greek but has since taken a backseat to Chara. Chara has moved from an underdog to a moderate favorite at -150.

Chara is now the favorite everywhere but is still available at + odds at BetED (+120).

Richard’s Pick: Chara

Ari’s Pick: Chara +120 at BetED

Selke Trophy: Pavel Datsyuk, Mike Richards, Ryan Kesler

No clue and minimal line movement. Here are the best odds on each player:

Datsyuk: +120 Betsson

Richards: +250 The Greek

Kesler: +250 The Greek

Richard’s Pick: Richards

Ari’s Pick: No clue, but I trust Richard. Probably bet on both Datsyuk at +120 and Richards at +250.

Lady Bing Trophy: Zach Parise, Marty St. Louis, Pavel Datsyuk

How do you handicap this? Politest handshake? Least penalties?

Parise: +170 The Greek

St. Louis: +180 The Greek

Datsyuk: +180 The Greek

Richard’s Pick: Datsyuk

Ari’s Pick: pass

Jack Adams: Andy Murray, Todd McLellan, Claude Julien

No odds available

Richard’s Pick: Claude Julien

The favorites in Pittsburgh were the usual suspects: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Marc-Andre Fleury as possible but unlikely third option.

Before the Detroit-Pittsburgh series started, BetED, Betsson, and Stan James were the three sportsbooks offering odds on who would win the Conn Smythe.

The best bet was Betsson offering Chris Osgood at +1100. I am guessing that because Betsson is a Swedish book, they were more concerned with making sure Swedes Johan Franzen and Henrik Zetterberg were available at sub-par odds.

BetED offered value on Zetterberg at +750, and Stan James had the best price on Franzen at +600. In my opinion, both of those were good bets.

The best price on Sidney Crosby was found at Betsson at +185. Malkin was +350 and Fleury was +700 – also at Betsson.

Since the first Conn Smythe Trophy was awarded in 1965, only four players from losing teams have won the award. Only one of those players, Philadelphia’s Reggie Leach in 1976, won it as a forward.

Assuming that the player who wins the Conn Smythe will be from the winning team, the way to figure out if a player is good value is to divide the price available on them to win the trophy by the odds on that team to win the game.

For example: Detroit is -175 to win game 7. Currently, Chris Osgood is +100 to win the Conn Smythe. Is this good value?

Doing the calculations, for this to be good value, if Detroit wins Chris Osgood would have to be -365 to win the trophy – or have more than a 78.5% chance of winning the trophy.

Here are the calculations (in European odds):

2.0/1.57 = 1.27 (European odds)

1.27 European = -365 North American odds

-365 = 78.5%

Here are the current Stanley Cup odds from Betsson – what, if any, bets make the most sense?

• Chris Osgood +100
• Henrik Zetterberg +200
• Evgeni Malkin +150
• Sidney Crosby +250
• Johan Franzen +400
• Marc Andre Fleury +300
• Maxime Talbot +1700
• Rest of Field +1900
• Nicklas Lidstrom +2400
• Sergei Gonchar +2400
• Valeri Filppula +2400
• Marian Hossa +2400
• Jordan Staal +1700

Share your thoughts on who will win the Conn Smythe. I can’t see it being anyone other than Osgood, Zetterberg or Malkin.

Pittsburgh Penguins at Detroit Red Wings (-180, 5.5)

Home ice is nice

The home team has won every game this series and Pittsburgh must try to break that trend in order to win its first Stanley Cup since 1992. The Wings have only lost once at home (11-1) in this year’s playoffs.

The Wings will have last change at home, and will have the matchup advantages against Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. Detroit has done an excellent job containing Pittsburgh’s two young superstars at home. Malkin has two assists in three games in Detroit while Crosby has yet to register a point.

Goaltending

Detroit’s Chris Osgood and Pittsburgh’s Marc-Andre Fleury have played well this postseason, but both have been much better at home than on the road.

Osgood is sporting a 1.40 goals against average at the Joe Louis Arena compared to a GAA of almost a goal and a half higher on the road.

Fleury made several spectacular stops in the third period of Game 6 to keep the Penguins in front. In Detroit, however, he has not been as fortunate. Fleury’s performance in Game 5 was not awful, but he did let in five goals. The young netminder also allowed some questionable goals in Games 1 and 2 at Detroit.

Read the full article here.

Detroit Red Wings at Pittsburgh Penguins (-140, 5.5): Matchup and trends

The Hank and Pav show

Pavel Datsyuk returned in a big way on Saturday, registering two assists and a +2 rating in 17:38 of ice time. Datsyuk, along with linemates Henrik Zetterberg and Dan Cleary, were the catalysts in Detroit’s 5-0 shutout of the Penguins.

“(I am) feeling good and more confident,” said Pavel Datsyuk on Sunday.

Mike Babcock is unsure whether he’ll pair up Datsyuk and Zetterberg for Game 6.

The Os-good, the Os-bad, and the Os-ugly

Chris Osgood played well in the first two games of this series, but has struggled on the road during the postseason. The Detroit goalie is 11-1 with a 1.40 goals against average at home and 4-5 with a 2.91 GAA on the road. Osgood has looked nothing like the netminder who had a 3.09 GAA and .887 save percentage during the regular season.

Read the entire article here.

Regardless of who wins the Stanley Cup finals, it has the potential to be a classic.

This rematch of last year’s finals features two of the league’s most talented offenses. Pittsburgh enters the finals as the highest scoring team in the playoffs, averaging 3.82 goals per game. Right behind them is Detroit, averaging 3.69 goals per game.

Pittsburgh’s contributions have come from predictable sources: Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. The dynamic duo has combined for 56 points in the Penguins’ 17 playoff games.

Trying to contain the Malkin and Crosby lines will be the offensively-minded, defensively-responsible pairing of Nicklas Lidstrom and Brian Rafalski, and the bruising, physically-imposing pairing of Brad Stuart and Niklas Kronwall.

Read the full article here.

The NHL playoffs are finally down to two teams. If this situation seems familiar it’s because the Red Wings and Penguins faced each other in last year’s Stanley Cup finals.

Our hockey experts, Ari Baum-Cohen and Dustin Nielson, go toe-to-toe in this rematch and give reasons why their pick will hoist one of sports’ most fabled trophies when it’s all said and done.

(Baum-Cohen) – Three reasons why the Pittsburgh Penguins win the Stanley Cup:

Two teams, one season

On February 16, the Pens were 27-25-5 and had just gotten blown out by the Toronto Maple Leafs. Farewell Michel Therrien, hello Dan Bylsma. Under Bylsma, the former coach of Pittsburgh’s AHL team, the Pens finished the season on an 18-3-4 run. The return of Sergei Gonchar around this time can also not be underestimated. The Pens improved their play in each playoff series and looked unstoppable in their sweep of the Canes.

Click here to read the entire article.

Detroit Red Wings at Chicago Blackhawks (-125, 5.5)

Will Datsyuk Play?

Detroit center Pavel Datsyuk missed Thursday’s practice and his status is uncertain for Friday’s game. The Hart Trophy finalist was injured during Game 2 when he was hit in the thigh with a shot.

Jiri Hudler took Datsyuk’s place on a line between Tomas Holmstrom and Marian Hossa. Though Datsyuk only has seven points in 13 playoff games, he finished fourth in the league with 97 points during the regular season

Balancing act

The Wings have players on all four lines that can score and received contributions from unlikely sources on Tuesday with Dan Cleary and Mikael Samuelsson scoring the game-tying and game-winning goals.

In order to win, the Blackhawks need consistent production from both their top forwards and secondary scorers. Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane played much better on separate lines in Game 2, but Chicago did not receive any secondary scoring. Coach Joel Quenneville has not yet disclosed whether they will be re-united for tonight’s match.

Read the entire article here.

Line Adjustments

Pittsburgh won as -185 favorites in Game 1 of this series.  The line opened with Pittsburgh as -200 favorites for Game 2 and is currently at -190.

The total is set at 5.5 -120, the same price as last game.

Beating the odds

The Hurricanes have lost Game 1 all three times this postseason. They came back to win series against New Jersey and Boston despite dropping the opening contest.

Historically the team that wins Game 1 at home wins the follow-up match 65 percent of the time and wins the series 77 percent of the time.

Read the entire article here.

If you are not aware, the odds on each team to win an event corresponds to a % chance of them winning that event. For example, in a world with no vig, a team that is +100 (2.00 in European odds) has a 50% chance of winning the event.

Here are the odds and chances of each team winning their series and winning the Stanley Cup (as of Saturday afternoon). Series odds are taken from Pinnacle, and Stanley Cup odds are taken from Betfair. Odds are slightly modified so they add up to 100%.

Obviously Detroit is the favorite to win the Cup. Carolina is the favorite to represent the Eastern Conference, but that is due to their 3-1 series lead over the Bruins. They will be underdogs if they advance to the conference finals.

Western Conference

Team…………To Win Series…….%………To Win Cup…….%

(2) Detroit………..-245……….71.0%…………..+255………28.2%

(8) Anaheim……..+245………29.0%………….+1400……..7.1%

* * * * * * * *

(3) Vancouver…..-125……….56.6%……………+780……….11.8%

(4) Chicago……..+125……….44.4%…………..+1000………9.1%

Eastern Conference

Team…………To Win Series…….%………To Win Cup…….%

(1) Boston……….+365………..21.5%…………..+1400……….7.1%

(6) Carolina………-365……….78.5%…………….+520……….16.1%

* * * * * * * * *

(2) Washington…-125……….56.6%…………….+800………..11.1%

(4) Pittsburgh…..+125………44.4%……………..+950…………9.5%

Here was Ari’s Methodology:

Washington’s % Chance to win the series = 1/(odds win G5 * odds win G6 * odds win G7)

OR

1/(1.54*1.83*1.51)= 23.47%.

So, instead of tracking Washington’s chances at an arbitrary number, Ari calculated the Capitals’ chances of winning each game when determining their odds of a comeback.  As you can see, the team’s chances were far higher than 8.7%, as he had the Capitals at just under 25% to comeback in the series.

Well, now that the Capitals are tied 3-3 with the Rangers heading home to the Verizon Center for Game 7 tonight, Ari now has the Caps as having a 70.2% chance of making the next round.

Can the Rangers beat the odds?

Looking at historical data since the lockout, it appears there is an argument to be made that a lack of rest can contribute to playoff success, particularly when playing against a well-rested team. The caveat, of course, is that only three years worth of data was examined. 

Teams with seven days off or more are 1-5 in the first game of the next round and are 2-4 overall in those series. The only Game 1 victory by a team with seven days of rest or more came last year, when the Penguins erased a 3-0 second period deficit to defeat the Rangers. 

Teams with two days off or less are 4-3 in the first game of the next round and 4-3 in those series.

Read Ari’s entire piece here.

Interesting data from Ari.  Considering each of the four teams who advanced to the second round prior to last night (Boston, Pittsburgh, Vancouver and Detroit) will have significant time off, we will have an opportunity to determine just how telling this data turns out to be.

How do you calculate what a team’s chances are to come back from a series deficit (besides looking at their series odds at a sportsbook)?

Let’s use the Washington-Rangers series as an example:

Step 1: Figure out the odds on Washington to win each game.

I recommend Covers. They have the historical odds and results of games dating back to the 1995-1996 season. Also the line for tomorrow’s game is available at any online sportsbook.

Game 5 line: Washington -185

Game 6 line (estimate based on earlier games): Washington -120

Game 7 line (estimate based on earlier games): Washington -195

Step 2: Convert those odds from American into European Style odds.

American odds use + and – to indicate whether a team is a favorite or an underdog. European odds use decimals, and are the same style of odds used in Canadian sports lottery parlay games such as proline. You can find an odds converter here.

Game 5 odds: 1.54

Game 6 odds: 1.83

Game 7 odds: 1.51

Step 3: Multiply the odds together.

Since all three events need to happen in order for the Caps to win the series, odds are determined by multiplying each event.

1.54*1.83*1.51 = 4.26= 1 in 4.26

Step 4: Use the odds converter to determine the percentage chance of an event with odds of 4.26 happening.

4.26 = 23.47%

Summary

Washington’s % Chance to win the series = 1/(odds win G5 * odds win G6 * odds win G7)

OR

1/(1.54*1.83*1.51)= 23.47%.

The Homer

This is the person that takes Daniel Sedin second overall and Alex Burrows in the third round. We get it, you’re a superfan. You can often recognize them by their team jersey and matching zubaz pants. Thanks for your money.

The Comedian

This guy has a “hilarious” opinion about every player and an equally hilarious opinion about why his picks are better than yours. You are so funny, I was trying to draft Fedor Fedorov not Sergei Fedorov.

The Expert

This person is the comedian minus the comedy. For whatever reason, they are convinced that their biases are superior to everyone else’s. You’ll recognize this person when you pick Cam Barker and they say “why didn’t you pick Duncan Keith, he averages almost seven more minutes of TOI?”

The Antsy Pants

“Hurry up”, “you haven’t gone yet?”, “just take someone” and of course “ten, nine, eight, seven…” are common utternaces of the antsy pants. Will almost always wind up fighting with the deliberator.

The Deliberator

In the first round they are debating between Crosby and Malkin, and in the sixteenth round they are debating between Byron Bitz and Travis Moen. To quote the antsy pants “just go already, it doesn’t matter!”

The Oracle

This person knows who is going to win each series in advance, and will never pick a player on one of those teams. Why didn’t you pick any Devils? “I just don’t see them beating the Canes” is the response. Need more proof? Don’t worry, they have a “gut feeling”.

The Student

This person is staring at their lists like they are John Nash from the movie A Beautiful Mind. What is the sheet telling you? Please, lighten up and make your picks. Stop studying how long Tomas Kopecky’s shifts are.

The Positive Influence

After every pick – “oh great pick” or “nice one”. Thanks for your support. Your approval means so much to me.

Which one of these are you? Have any other categories that poolies fall into?

Ari’s Pool Advice

I have two tips to help you win your pool.

1. Ari’s number one rule of gambling – The People Setting the Lines Know More Than You

Maybe you think you have some innate power to pick winners or an ability to see into the future, but it is more likely that you are letting your biases get the better of you. Not sure who is going to win a series? Check out the “series prices” posted at your friendly neighbourhood online sportsbook. If they think a team is favoured, so should you.

2. Take Who You’re Given

Drafting with a bunch of Flames fans? There will probably be Blackhawks left when there shouldn’t be. If you don’t think the Hawks will win, see rule #1. Wanted a Red Wing in round 1 but are picking 11th? Don’t settle for Franzen if a top player from a good team is available.

This week I will divide the teams into four groups, and select one team from each group as having the best value.

The Favourites: San Jose, Detroit, Boston, Washington, New Jersey

Ari’s Pick: Boston (+700)

I don’t think Boston is the team most likely to win the Stanley Cup, but I prefer their odds to the odds on the San Jose Sharks (+400) the team I think is most likely to win the Cup. Detroit and Washington have issues in net, and New Jersey is slumping at the wrong time. The Bruins, like the Sharks, are a complete team and will probably have an easier road to the Cup than their Western Conference opponents.

The Second-Tier: Calgary, Chicago, Vancouver, Philadelphia, Carolina, Pittsburgh

Ari’s Pick: Carolina (+2500)

The Canes have been on a tear. They have won 9 in a row, including a 9 goal outburst against the hapless Islanders in their last game. The Canes are getting solid offensive production and excellent goaltending from Cam Ward. The Canes’ recent play, and the fact they have the highest odds of all the teams in this group, make them the best value.

Teams the Favourites Want to Avoid: Columbus, Anaheim

Ari’s Pick: Anaheim (+4500)

Between Columbus at +4000 and Anaheim at +4500 I prefer Anaheim. They are hot at the right time and one of the most physical teams in the league. Their physical play could be a problem for the Red Wings or Canucks over a seven game series. They also have excellent depth at forward and defense and will be aided by the return of Francois Beauchemin, originally thought to be gone for the season after undergoing reconstructive knee surgery earlier this season.

The Longshots: Montreal, New York Rangers, Florida, Buffalo, St. Louis, Nashville, Minnesota

Ari’s Pick: St. Louis (+8000)
While I doubt any of these teams will advance past the first round, the team with the best chance is probably the New York Rangers, but they are only available at +5000. St. Louis has a young, confident team and they have played well. Despite numerous injuries and a mid-season goaltending change, the Blues control their own destiny to make the post-season. From there, anything can happen, but probably won’t.

Who do you think is the best bet out of these four categories?

In the Eastern Conference, Boston, New Jersey and Washington have clinched playoff spots. Carolina, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh will make the playoffs barring a 2007 New York Mets style collapse. That leaves Montreal, New York, and Florida to battle for the final two playoff spots.

Montreal Canadiens (40-27-10, 90 pts, 7th in East)

Best odds to win Cup: +3700

Remaining Schedule: @ Tor, Ott, @ NYR, @ Bos, Pit

Likelihood of Making Playoffs*: 85%

Ari’s Take: Montreal has struggled for most of the second half of the season but a 4-0-1 stretch has the Habs ready for the post-season. 2-3-0 should be good enough as long as they beat the Rangers. The Habs need to take care of business against the Sens and Leafs before closing out the season against stronger opponents.

New York Rangers (40-29-9, 89 pts, 8th in East)

Best odds to win Cup: +4000

Remaining Schedule: @ Bos, Mtl, Phi, @ Phi

Likelihood of Making Playoffs*: 70%

Ari’s Take: New York has four games left, all against teams ahead of them in the standings. Two wins will probably be good enough, but the Rangers will have to win at least three to put pressure on the Panthers.

Florida Panthers (38-28-11, 87 pts, 9th in East)

Best odds to win Cup: +8000

Remaining Schedule: Atl, Pit, @ Phi, @ Atl, Was

Likelihood of Making Playoffs*: 60%

Ari’s Take: Cranderson has resurrected the Panthers’ dim playoff hopes. The Panthers will probably need at least seven points over their last five games to have a realistic shot at the post-season. If the Panthers can beat the Thrashers tomorrow, they may be worth a look at +8000.

*Car, Phi, and Pit are each assumed to have a 95% chance of making the playoffs. Percentages are my opinion and should not be considered accurate.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

In the Western Conference, San Jose, Detroit and Calgary have clinched spots, while Vancouver and Chicago will be in before the end of the week. Columbus will make the playoffs barring a major collapse. That leaves Anaheim, St. Louis, Nashville, Minnesota and Edmonton to battle for the final two playoff spots.

Anaheim Ducks (40-32-6, 86 pts, 7th in West)

Best odds to win Cup: +5000

Remaining Schedule: @ SJ, SJ, Dal, Phx

Likelihood of Making Playoffs*: 75%

Ari’s Take: Anaheim is a team no one wants to face in the playoffs, but will they get there? Anaheim must find a way to beat San Jose at least once to have a chance. If the Ducks can survive their home and home with the Sharks, +5000 may be good value.

St. Louis Blues (38-31-9, 85 pts, 8th in West)

Best odds to win Cup: +15000

Remaining Schedule: @ Dal, @ Phx, Clb, @ Col

Likelihood of Making Playoffs*: 60%

Ari’s Take: The Blues improved their chances considerably with a win over Detroit. St. Louis has one of the easier schedules to close out the season and are playing their best hockey of the season. Odds of +15000 are worthwhile on any team in a playoff position with one and a half weeks left in the season.

Nashville Predators (38-31-8, 84 pts, 9th in West)

Best odds to win Cup: +6600

Remaining Schedule: @ Chi, Clb, Chi, @ Det, @ Min

Likelihood of Making Playoffs*: 50%

Ari’s Take: Nashville does not have an easy schedule, but they still control their own destiny. Led by rookie goaltender Pekka Rinne, the Preds have lost once in regulation in their last nine games. Seven points in their last five games should be enough for the Preds to sneak into the playoffs.

Minnesota Wild (36-32-9, 81 pts, 10th in West)

Best odds to win Cup: +6600

Remaining Schedule: Cgy, @ Det, Dal, Nas, @ Clb

Likelihood of Making Playoffs*: 15%

Ari’s Take: The Wild will need to get at least eight points in their last four games to make the playoffs, and will have beat at least one very good team to do so. They are fortunate to play a Flames team playing their second road game in two nights, but will probably need to beat the Red Wings in Detroit to give themselves a chance.

Edmonton Oilers (36-33-9, 81 pts, 11th in West)

Best odds to win Cup: +6600

Remaining Schedule: Van, LA, Cgy, @ Cgy

Likelihood of Making Playoffs*: 5%

Ari’s Take: Edmonton has no margin for error, needing to win the remainder of their games to have a chance to make the playoffs. Edmonton’s loss to Anahiem earlier this week basically ended their playoff hopes.

*For these calculations, Clb is assumed to have a 95% chance to make the playoffs. Percentages are my opinion and should not be considered accurate.

Calgary (39-22-6, 84 points, 3rd in West)

Price: +1400 (Carib)

Calgary made the biggest move on trade deadline day, landing Olli Jokinen. They also picked up a solid puck-moving defenseman in Jordan Leopold. When healthy, the Flames have excellent depth offensively, but are currently without Rene Bourque, and Todd Bertuzzi. These injuries are depriving the Flames of the secondary scoring that has contributed to their offensive success this season. . After the Jokinen trade odds on Calgary dropped, but until the Flames are healthy, bettors should take a cautious approach with the Flames.

Carolina (36-27-5, 77 points, 8th in East)

Price: +6600 (Ladbrokes)

The Hurricanes are 7-3-0 in their last 10 and have scored 20 goals in their last three games. The addition of Erik Cole was a good move for the Canes, as Cole has six points in his last two games. It’s not because of the addition of Erik Cole, but the ‘Canes have been playing well lately and may be worth a look.

Edmonton (32-27-7, 71 points, 7th in West)

Price: +6600 (Centebet)

Edmonton was a winner at the trade deadline, adding potential top six forwards Patrick O’Sullivan and Ales Kotalik. These deals were done at the end of the day, and as a result did not get as much attention as some of the other deals. Edmonton is better offensively for it, and the odds on them remain unchanged. They are a team to watch over the next few weeks.

Florida (34-24-89 77 points, 7th in East)

Price: +5000 (Canbet)

Sometimes the best move at the trade deadline is to do nothing. The Panthers were unable to deal Jay Bouwmeester and will keep their over-achieving squad intact. Florida has been playing very well after a slow start to the season. Oddsmakers did not adjust Florida’s odds on deadline day, and as a result the Panthers continue to have value for bettors.

Toronto (27-28-13, 67 points, 11th in East)

Price: +60000 (Stan James)

If you were thinking that Toronto’s recent winning streak might provide futures bettors with value, think again. The Leafs re-affirmed their commitment to tanking this season at the trade deadline. They dealt Nik Antropov and Dominic Moore for draft picks and picked up Martin Gerber to be their starting goaltender. Betting on Toronto should be avoided at all costs.

Remember, this month’s prize is half of our affiliate money.  I will post this total later today, but basically $10-$15 gets added to the prize pool every time someone signs up and deposits at one of our recommended books using the link on Illegal Curve.

Here are the totals from October, November, and December: