For those unable to attend here are some pictures from the hour long practice.  Enjoy.

Coach Noel gives fans at MTS Centre some info on how he plans on running practice:

Fans making some noise:

Flight staff giving away Andrew Ladd bobble head dolls:

Dave Wheeler interacted with fans giving away prizes for Jets trivia.

Coach Noel gets mic’d up:

Still have a practice to participate in.

Coach Noel running drills as fans watch on:

Final chat with his squad for the day:

Evander Kane signs some of the Jets gear to be thrown to the crowd:

Kane throwing the hats into the crowd:

A young fan happy to be on the receiving end of that toss:

Zach Bogosian gets in on the action:

Birthday boy Grant Clitsome takes his turn:

Captain Ladd signs some hats before sending them into the crowd:

Bogosian, taking his cue from Big Buff tosses a stick into the crowd:

Buff gets another stick to giveaway and hands it to this appreciative young man:

In addition to all these giveaways the Jets gave away an Alexander Burmistrov jersey and tickets to next Saturday’s game against the New York Islanders.

Byfuglien is a talented player—no one really debates that.  He can shoot, he can pass and he can play a versatile game.  Few players in the NHL are able to play both forward and defense and have a significant impact on the game while employed at both positions.

Dustin Byfuglien played first line right wing on the 2010 Stanley Cup champion Blackhawks.  He then played defense on the Atlanta Thrashers well enough to earn an All Star nomination.

The issues with Byfuglien are well known.  He is lazy defensively, generally cannot keep his weight under control and is difficult to coach.

With Jacob Trouba on the horizon, the Jets organization has options on its hands;  with options comes decisions.

Options for Jets

Before we examine the different options that exist for the Jets organization, let’s establish Byfuglien’s contractual terms:

The Minnesota native will be a free agent at 31 years old.  His cap hit for the upcoming three seasons is actually lower than his actual salary—as the deal was slightly back-loaded by the general manager who penned the deal, Rick Dudley.

1. Play Dustin Byfuglien at Forward

The Jets recently experimented with the idea of moving Byfuglien to forward, specifically, on the right side with Andrew Ladd on the left side and Bryan Little in the middle.

Byfuglien looked out of place, but the experiment lasted a mere three periods or so, and that is not a long enough period of time to make an absolute decision in this regard.  Having said that, it is probably fair to say that regardless of the duration of the experiment, if the defenseman many call “Big Buff” is, in fact, this “big” on an ongoing basis, then he will not be able to shoulder the skating responsibility associated with played forward in the National Hockey League (NHL).

Assuming he is in relatively good shape, or even average shape, Byfuglien does fill a glaring need for the organization.  When playing forward he plays right wing and GM Kevin Cheveldayoff has gone on the record as saying his team is seeking a top-6 right-winger.

Byfuglien could conceivably satisfy that right-wing need.  Even if his contract could be above and beyond what his production would warrant, the decision regarding Byfuglien as a right-wing, cannot be made in a vacuum and this option is certainly one to be taken seriously.

If the Jets do not move Byfuglien to forward then they have to address the organization’s right wing need via free agency or trade, as there does not appear to be a player in the system that fits this need (maybe Bryan Little, but that would be contingent on many other factors).

Finally, we would be remiss without pointing out that Byfuglien does not really enjoy playing forward.  Psyche is a factor in any player’s production, so this ought to be taken into account.

2. Play Dustin Byfuglien at Defense

Playing the back-end is Byfuglien’s preference—he has indicated this on a countless number of occasions.  His skill-set on the back-end is unique.  He is big, can skate, can pass, can shoot and can hit.  The quality of his hockey sense is undeniable, but his willingness to utilize that sense in his own zone is more than questionable.

It truly is that inability, or unwillingness, to apply himself in his own zone that is holding Byfuglien back from being a top-ten NHL defenseman.  This is what makes him so maddening.  The tools are there; no one really questions that.  What people question, rightfully so, is whether Byfuglien will ever take that next step.

Keeping Byfuglien on defense is probably the safest option, in the sense that with Byfuglien on the blue line they know, more or less, what to expect.  Kevin Cheveldayoff can expect offensive production at even strength and on the power play, with defensive decisions that would keep Ken Hitchcock up for a month straight without sleep.

3. Trade Dustin Byfuglien

First, let’s note that Dustin Byfuglien has a no-trade clause that came into effect this season, and allows him to provide the Jets with a five-team no-trade list.  This clause would likely not be a deterrent for the Jets, as that leaves the organization with 24 other teams with which they can make a deal.

The Jets have the following defensemen in the system right now:

Tobias Enstrom
Zach Bogosian
Ron Hainsey
Mark Stuart
Zach Redmond
Paul Postma
Arturs Kulda
Jacob Trouba
Grant Clitsome
Derek Meech

Of the above, Hainsey, Clitsome and Meech are pending unrestricted free agents (UFAs).  Bogosian, Redmond, Postma and Kulda are restricted free agents (RFAs).  Enstrom, Stuart and Trouba are the only defensemen (aside from Byfuglien) currently under contract next season with the Winnipeg Jets.

If the Jets do not trade Byfuglien, this what the team looks like on the back-end next season:

Byfuglien and Bogosian are interchangeable in terms of first and second pairing.  Trouba is listed as part of the third pairing because all accounts have him debuting in the NHL next season and he is a right-side defender.

On the left side, Enstrom’s next contract kicks in beginning in the 2013-14 season and he is undoubtedly the team’s best left-side defender.  Mark Stuart is a bottom pairing defenseman, leaving a hole in the top-four.

Filling the void on the left side of the defense with any of the aforementioned defenders may occur, but is probably not the Jets’ foremost option.

If the Jets trade Byfuglien, the team creates another hole on the back-end where one already exists (assuming they do not receive a top defender in return).

Nonetheless, the purpose of this article is to examine what precisely Byfuglien could net the Jets in a trade this off-season.

Defensemen with similar production that have been traded

What other defensemen in the NHL can produce offensively like Dustin Byfuglien?  More specifically, which NHL defensemen have produced offensively like Byfuglien, and have been traded in the past four seasons?

Since he has been playing full-time defense for the past three seasons, let’s use that period of time as our base in terms of comparing statistics.   More precisely, let’s examine the three seasons prior to the one in which these comparable players were traded.

Four players who are offensively slanted in terms of their overall value, and who have also been traded within the past few years are:

1.  Brent Burns

2.  Jack Johnson

3.  Dion Phaneuf

4.  Alex Goligoski

Here are Byfuglien’s numbers:

The ages at which each of the above defensemen were traded:

Dustin Byfuglien, at 28 years old, is slightly older than the comparable defensemen were when traded.  Defensemen, however, peek later in their careers according to many, and with his contract expiring at age 31, there is not much long-term risk associated with acquiring Byfuglien.

Trading Burns, Johnson, Phaneuf and Goligowski, garnered the following in return for their former teams:

A couple of teams have been rumoured to have interest in Byfuglien such as Detroit and Philadelphia.

Using the above trades in comparison, (and the Phaneuf trade more as an anomaly), there are two different types of trades the Jets could conceivably make:

1. Quality player for quality player; or

2. Quality player for younger players and draft picks.

Philadelphia Flyers:

The Flyers are limited in terms of prospects, so a trade with the Flyers would likely be quality player for quality player.

Something along the lines of:

Both of those players would fill a need on the Jets’ right side, but both players have also become integral parts of the Flyers team.  Then again, just how badly do the Flyers need defensemen?

(Keep in mind that the top unrestricted free agent defensemen this off-season, are the likes of Mark Streit and Sergei Gonchar.)

Detroit Red Wings:

The Red Wings, on the other hand, have more depth in the prospect system than Philadelphia.   A trade similar to the one for Brent Burns would likely be more applicable in this circumstance.

Something along the lines of:

These are not specific trade possibilities created to bring upon rumours; rather, they are just presented as a guideline for the different types of trades that may be available to the Jets if they decide to explore the trade market for Byfuglien.

Conclusion:

Overall the Jets are in a position of strength with Dustin Byfuglien.  The organization does not have to trade him, but with his versatility and the expected emergence of Jacob Trouba, Kevin Cheveldayoff could conceivably utilize the asset of Dustin Byfuglien to fill an immediate need (the Philadelphia example)—or fill a couple of needs with an eye on the future (the Detroit example).

What he will do is anyone’s guess, but his action or potential inaction should provide Jets fans with a better idea of his overall vision for the franchise.

**Thanks to behindthenet.ca and capgeek.com for the data**

The Great Stompin Tom Connors spoke for a nation when he celebrated (in Three Period structure no less) the trials and tribulations of scrubs on skates.  Stompin Tom’s snippet of  Canadiana,  continues  to resonate to cuckolded fans and is  performed at full throat in many an NHL reservoir.  It is safe to assume that as one of our national icons Mr. Connors did not consider the current square-dance between National Hockey League Commissioner  Gary Bettman and National Hockey League Players Association Chief Donald Fehr when he penned :

Tension grows, the whistle blows,
And the puck goes down the ice.

But here we stand on the cusp of a what should be a new NHL season hunkering down for a baron Saturday night schedule of CBC’s Movie of the Week. Where have you gone Mr. Cherry? And when will you come back?

The NHL has locked out the players. The player have scattered to Europe or parts beyond, the fans are left to find new hobbies or even reacquaint with family members.

Why are Donald Fehr and Gary Bettman driving us off this cliff?  Can the season be saved?   Here at the Illegal Curve Satellite Office we offer a three period assessment of the bargaining tactics of the NHL (First Period), NHLPA (Second Period) and finally proffer some unsolicited advice to get to a deal (Third Period).

While much of this may be over-harvested flora, our intent is to winnow out the usual chafe and focus primarily on the bargaining tactics of both sides.  The average fan will no doubt opine that any labour fight has a similar sedentary effect to watching curling on Xanex but hang in there fans, you have a lot of time these days.

                             First Period– The NHL Game Plan

During this Thanksgiving season we register that the invitation to the past seven NHL banquets has bequeathed both player and owner with a true horn of plenty.  The National Hockey League has expanded the total dollars collected from $2.2 billion to $3.3 billion since the cancellation of the 2004-2005 hockey season.

According to Forbes magazine, the average NHL Franchise is now worth more than $240 million.  This represents a 47% growth since the last lockout. Annual team revenues average $103 million. A national television deal with behemoth NBC is slated to generate approximately two billion dollars over the next 20 years and help create the continental exposure Gary Bettman has long lusted for.  The advent of a PVR habit and a cable universe-while diluting traditional media advertising has made live events a most cherished television property for now and into the future.  So why would the NHL business model so flush with cash and trending strong in most economic categories slide a sharp skate on its own jugular and again shut down the business?

In a word: Margins.

The NHL is not as profitable as it could be. As per the last agreement the league will pay 57% of hockey related revenue to the players. The owners feel that by cutting the player share to a more modest percentage they will increase their operating profit. They will also significantly increase franchise value by offering a more profitable venture to future investors.

Most analysts agree that the NHL would probably accept a 50% share of hockey revenue. But how do we get there?  Here at the Satellite Office we note some of the tricks and traps of the National Hockey League.

Below –in no particular order are some of the bargaining tactics and mistakes used by the NHL in collective bargaining:

Tactic #1 Setting an Aspiration Point

In collective bargaining an aspiration point or target point is usually the upper limit of what any negotiator expects to get out of a deal. In 2005 Gary Bettman set his target squarely as the establishment of a hard salary cap and a kill-shot to his counterpart and nemesis Bob Goodenow.  There is no doubt Gary won on both fronts. Unfortunately for Mr. Bettman, he badly missed on other issues.

Mistake # 1 Leaving Money on the Table

The reason any organization hires a negotiator is to maximize the opportunities achievable in any deal. If they do not optimize then the company has left money on the table. Upon the acceptance of a salary cap the NHLPA was in the process of removing their leader from final negotiations. The NHL knew the union was both fractious and discouraged. The league had won this round and they wanted (not needed) to get back to repair the damage caused to both sponsors and fans. So in their hast they made a rookie mistake. They could have and should have locked down tougher rules on contract length, arbitration terms and–yeah you called it—more favorable revenue sharing.

Tactic #2 – Framing the Case

When Gary Bettman assumed the post of commissioner in February 1993 the annual league revenue was $700 million and the average player salary was $560, 000. In 20 years as the captain of this swashbuckling armada Bettman has increased revenue by 450% and player salaries have increased by over 400%. The NHL, and Bettman specifically, are responsible for identifying and leveraging opportunities. The player contribution truly did not change during this time.  The players gave everything they had.  No one could reasonably ask any more from the glacial gladiators. The number of games and the level of intensity continued to max out. But it was the owners that grew the game. No serious analysis can disavow the commissioner from all the monetary successes the players enjoy.  Gary Bettman needs to frame a case based on the inescapable truth that management alone is the reason each player salary is so high.

Mistake # 2 The Chilling Effect

When any party to a  negotiation  starts the discussion by asking for something outrageous this may elicit a non-response known as the chilling effect. The NHL owners erred badly when they proposed an economic buzz cut of over 20% in the salary cap. Add to the list some chastising contract terms (no free agency until age 29 and neutering all of arbitration rights) and the table was set for the chilling effect.  Since that over-heated day in July Donald Fehr has never really addressed the terms of this chilling first offer.  The NHLPA response as we will see was very different…….

Oh! The good old hockey game,
Is the best game you can name;
And the best game you can name,
Is the good old Hockey game!

Sean MacDonald is an instructor in the Asper School of Business at the University of Manitoba in Labour Relations and Collective Bargaining.  He will be contributing a regular column on Illegalcurve.com.

Some said the city would never be the same without the Jets, few ever said what the city would be like if the Jets suddenly reappeared.

Maybe the Jets needed to leave for the city to realize its capabilities, for the businesses to flourish in its absence, or maybe most importantly, for the public to realize, we as a collective group, could fare without NHL hockey.

Sure we could “survive”, quite well in fact, but we always believed we could fare even better with the NHL returning to this great city.

The above paragraphs, or any words for that matter, do little justice to the feeling of excitement that took place in the MTS Centre last night.  So, here is a brief chronicle of the excitement from the moment the doors opened, to the moment the players came out for the pre-game skate.  See, if we chronicled the time from the pre-game skate to the puck drop, we at Illegal Curve would not be able to take that feeling in without distraction.  It is during those moments that no distractions apply.  No cell phones.  No Twitter.  No Facebook.  Just us. The fans of the Jets; the people of Winnipeg uniting for a common cause.

Does it get any better than this?

6:25 p.m.: The attendance is sparse but there is a feeling of excitement.  This is not the calm one feels before an NHL exhibition game, or a regular season game for that matter.

6:31 p.m.: People continue to trickle in, the visibility of old fashioned Jets jersey becomes apparent—like it was ever really going to be a surprise…

6:33 p.m.: The staff at MTS Centre enters the ice to work on the ice surrounding the crease.  Something so simple never really attracts our attention, but everything is amplified on this surreal evening.

6:34 p.m.: The television lights appear in the North End of the building.  Television lights.  TSN Jets will be broadcasting this contest.  TSN, of course, broadcasts the NHL.  This is an NHL game.  Pinch us, we’re dreaming.

6:36 p.m.: The nets have entered the ice.  The warm up nets that is.  But nets nonetheless.

6:39 p.m.: The first audible cheer emanates from the stands.  Some in the 100 section are standing, clearly unable to curb their enthusiasm.

6:40 p.m.: Warm-up time says 19:19, 19:18, 19:17.  The logos underneath are both blue and red—Winnipeg and Columbus.  As Tim Campbell said in the Free Press this morning—did anyone believe this would happen 15 years ago?

6:41 p.m.: PA announcer (Jay Richardson of Jay and Troy) welcoming everyone to the MTS Centre, the crowd of, probably 1,000 people, applauds and cheers.

6:43 p.m.: The Code of Conduct appears.  The joy will likely not lead to any incidents.  The people are too elated to cause trouble.

6:48 p.m.: People are getting acquainted with their new season seats.  The seat selection process is one thing; the real thing is a whole lot different (never mind October 9).

6:50 p.m.: The first sign appears.  A pink sign in section 222 that says “Go Jets”.

6:53 p.m.: Audio of “Go Jets Go” plays over the loud speaker.

6:55 p.m.: Sara Orlesky sets up shop on the team bench to tape her pre-game spot.

6:58 p.m.: All we can think of is that this is NOTHING compared to what October 9 will be.

7:00 p.m.: The players enter the rink in their “home” whites.  The fans can’t stop cheering.  Place wasn’t even full yet and sounded like many other NHL arenas filled to their capacity.

We hope you enjoyed the game.  We did.  It was only the first NHL hockey game featuring the Jets in 15 years…

We have documented a number of facets of the game which the Jets have to improve this season; whether it be preventing shots, the penalty kill or fitting into a new coaching system there is much room to grow for this team.

One area we know the team will undoubtedly see an increase in this season is in overall attendance of the team’s home arena.  Much has been made about Winnipeg’s popular white out.  From personal experience I can say that being apart of a home Winnipeg Jets playoff game is the loudest stadium/arena I have ever been in.  Period.  It really has never come close (The Saddledome during the 2004 Finals was loud but not in the same conversation).

While few debate the passion and crowd noise of Winnipeg fans, the practical question moving forward is whether this passion and crowd noise can help contribute to the Jets’ success?

More on this after the jump.

How many times this summer have you heard, “This team will unquestionably be better because they played in Atlanta where crowds were sparse.” Or, “Man, these players will now be held accountable because everyone knows who they are and the fans of the city will push them to succeed.”

Let’s look at the numbers to see whether there is a correlation over the past three NHL seasons between teams that fill the building and success at home (calculated in terms of goal differential instead of record).

2008/09:

2009/10:

2010/11:

The numbers above demonstrate some interesting correlations.  In the 2008/09 season, there was a 0.53 correlation between attendance (in terms of percentage capacity) and home success.  In 2009/10, there was a 0.26 correlation.  In 2010/11, there was a 0.33 correlation.  So, the correlation over the past three NHL seasons between home capacity and home success was 0.37—not overly significant but not nothing either.  There is somewhat of a positive correlation between the two variables.

Now, we should point out the “chicken or the egg” element of this article.  Some will argue that attendance is only up to or over capacity because a team is successful and thus fans are heading to the arena to follow that already good team, thereby calling into question what is the cause and what is the effect.  That may be a factor but finding that out is a far more difficult task.

All in all, it appears the Jets and the team’s season ticket holders for the next three to five years may very well help, at some level, the team’s success.  Nice to know some of what you having been hearing this summer may actually be true.

Let’s take a look at the home and road goal differential totals for the Jets/Thrashers relative to the rest of the NHL:

More after the jump.

Here are the NHL home goal differentials from last season:

What about the road differential?

The Thrashers were nothing if not consistent, as the team was the fifth worst in terms of goal differential at home and fifth worst in goal differential on the road.  All in all, some terrible figures.

On Wednesday, we will look at how much of an effect playing in front of a packed house may or may not have on the Jets’ chances next season.

In fact a number of members of the IC Crew will be doing just this when they take on the New York area in November to celebrate the stag of Illegal Curve Radio show host Drew Mindell, by attending the Jets games against the Islanders, Devils, and Rangers.

Here are Dave and Ezzy’s Top 10 Winnipeg Jets away games for this season:

Dave’s Top 10 Winnipeg Jets Away Games

#10  Predators on Saturday, March 24th 

Reason:  A number of reasons jump out at me to attend this game.  One is I’ve always liked the Predators franchise.  I like the way they’re run, the loyalty they’ve shown the GM & Coach and the way they’ve built up the fan base.  As well, Head coach Barry Trotz is from Dauphin, Manitoba.  But the #1 reason to see this game is that the Preds are selling it as an opportunity for Thrashers fans to come down and cheer or jeer their former club.  If they show in big numbers, it could make an otherwise unremarkable game, quite significant.

#9  Wild on Thursday, February 16th

Reason:  Proximity could make this our best rivalry, although the Jets 1.0 and North Stars never really had much of anything in terms of mutual animosity.  You can expect a ton of Winnipeg support to be heading down to see this contest as they did during the 2011 NHL Entry Draft which should make the already incredible atmosphere at the Xcel Energy Center in St. Paul quite over the top.  Plus Minneapolis/St.Paul is one of the best cities to visit.
 

#’s 8 thru 1 after the jump.

#8  Capitals on Friday, March 23rd

Reason:  Could a sea of white wash out the arena full of red at the Verizon Center?  The crowds in Washington always seem to be partying and I love that the entire arena is decked in red gear.  This game could have some playoff implications as well.

#7  Leafs on Wednesday, October 19th 

Reason:  There are a ton of former Peggers’ who live in T.O. and I’m sure the A.C.C. will be rocking with Jets fans in what is the just the Jets 4th away game in their young existence.  

#6  Canucks on Thursday, March 8th

Reason:  I always liked the Flames even though when we weren’t having our hearts torn out by the Oilers, it was being done to us by Calgary but for some reason I never liked the Canucks (probably because of the playoffs in 92 & 93 and Mike Peca’s hit on Teemu Selanne).  Having said that, I love the city of Vancouver (easily one of the best cities in North America to live) and with the former Moose/Canucks relationship, the rivalry should begin anew between these two cities.

#5:  Canadiens on Wednesday, January 4th

Reason:  There seems to be something magical about the Bell Centre in Montreal.  Everyone I’ve ever talked to has said it just has a great atmosphere for hockey and to be able to cheer on the Jets in this arena would be quite fun.

#4  Flames on Friday, March 9th

Reason:  When we went down to support the Flames at Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Finals in 2004, we all wore our Jets gear and were warmly embraced by the Calgary crowd.  Perhaps it was nostalgia for our old Smythe division rivalry but we got a lot of love down in cow-town.  The Saddledome is a fun building and I’m looking forward to seeing the rivalry renew between these two teams.  (can anyone recognize which former Flame is embracing us?)

#3  Red Wings on Saturday, December 13th

Reason:  I spent a number of seasons cheering on the Red Wings at Joe Louis Arena and I love the building and the people in Detroit.  It is a great sports town and my Jets gear always got a good reception when I wore it to games.  To be able to see the Jets playing again in this venerable building would be quite the thrill.

#2  Blackhawks on Thursday, October 13th

Reason:  The Hawks and Jets have a number of ties.  We have a former Hawks employee running the show in Winnipeg, they are led on the ice by captain Jonathan Toews (one of  our favoured sons) and I’ve always wanted to see a game at the United Center.

#1  Coyotes on Saturday, October 15th 

Reason:  The Coyotes home opener is going to be well attended…by Jets fans.  There are already rumblings that a number of Jets fanloyalists will be invading the Jobing.com arena to support the Jets 2.0 against the Jets 1.0.  As was the case when I picked the Coyotes as the 3rd home game to see, the rivalry is more fan centric, than between these two teams, but it should make for a really fun, hopefully respectful, game atmosphere.

Ezzy’s Top 10 Winnipeg Jets Away Games

#10 Leafs on Wednesday, October 19th

Reason:  I start my Top 10 list early in the season with the Jets first away game in Canada against the much hated and much loved Maple Leafs of Toronto. The Jets and Leafs will do battle four times this season but this game will be the first and will set the tone for the season series.

With that theme of Top 10 in mind, Illegal Curve decided to take a look at the Jets home schedule and try to limit ourselves to just 10 home games that most caught our fancy.  Recently, while discussing the schedule with a hockey fan, it was said “but who is going to want to see the Islanders or Hurricanes in December” and the answer was “almost anyone in Winnipeg”.

But in the interest of presenting a Top 10 list, here are Dave and Ezzy’s Top 10 Winnipeg Jets home games for this season:

Dave’s Top 10 Winnipeg Jets Home Games

#10  Hurricanes on Saturday, October 22nd

Reason:  It is the first Saturday night game and it will be featured on CBC.  As well, the Staal family is from “nearby” Thunder Bay, Ontario so it will be a homecoming of sorts for the Canes captain.  Of course with so many Staal’s in the Eastern Conference, I suspect the family might have to take up residence in the Peg’.

#9  Leafs on Saturday, December 31st

Reason:  I’m not really a Leafs fan, but you would have to imagine that the atmosphere will be quite charged for the New Years Eve game.

#’s 8 thru 1 after the jump.

#8  Bruins on Tuesday, December 6th

Reason:  The Stanley Cup champs are coming to town.  Always exciting to see the team which was last season’s cup winners.

#7  Kings on Thursday, December 29th

Reason:  I think the Kings could be a force this season, so they would be a worthwhile team to watch.  Will help that Kenora’s Mike Richards and Winkler’s Dustin Penner should have pretty sizable cheering sections.

#6  Capitals on Friday, March 16th

Reason:  Ovechkin, Backstrom and Semin should make the game extremely entertaining.  Who knows perhaps we will even see Winnipeg product Jacob Micflikier suiting up in front of the hometown crowd.

#5:  Lightning on Saturday, April 7th

Reason:  Final game of the regular season.  Perhaps it will mean something, perhaps it doesn’t but should have a similar atmosphere as Game 1 did and who knows, it could have an impact on the playoff race.

#4  Penguins on Friday, December 23

Reason:  With all the concussion talk and uncertainty of his return in time for training camp I’ve bypassed the early Pens game in favour of the one 2 months later.  Hopefully by this time a healthy Crosby will be leading his Pens into Winnipeg.  I still remember having tickets with my grandfather to a Penguins game when they were supposed to be led into town by Lemieux, but Mario missed the Jets game on that road trip while recovering from injury.

#3  Coyotes on Thursday, December 1st

Reason:  I contend that the Desert Dogs could become the Jets biggest rivals due to our somewhat shared history.  As well the Internet has created a level of animosity that won’t likely be duplicated on the ice but has fans on both sides of the border salivating at the chance to stick it to the other side.  Battle of Jets 1.0 vs. Jets 2.0.

#2  Ducks on Saturday, December 17th

Reason:  Teemu, Teemu, Teemu.  This game could fall on my list if the Finnish Flash doesn’t return to the NHL but we don’t want to entertain those thoughts.  Of course long time Jets 1.0 defenceman and current Anaheim coach Randy Carlyle could bring us some nostalgia.

#1  Canadiens on Sunday, October 9th

Reason:  First official NHL regular season game in the history of the Jets 2.0.  Similar to my rational for the Leafs game on New Years Eve, this has more to do with the spectacle than who the Jets opponent is.  It is a game 15 years in the waiting, and Winnipeg is going to make this party last all season long.

Ezzy’s Top 10 Winnipeg Jets Home Games

#10  Bruins on Tuesday, December 6th

Reason:  The Bruins are the defending Stanley Cup Champions and a storied Original Six franchise so I would be remiss if I didn’t include them on this list. The Bruins have some of the best young talent in the game with Milan Lucic, Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand. And of course the Bruins have 6’9’’ tower of power Zdeno Chara, who fans love to hate wherever he goes (especially Montreal, right Habs fans?).

#9  Wild on Tuesday, December 13th

Reason:  The Wild only visit the Jets once this season and as the closest NHL city to ours, it will produce a geographically friendly rivalry.  The Wild are going to be better this year with the addition of Dany Heatley and Devin Setoguchi but the main reason why this game makes this list is because this is the first game of a six-game homestand in December for the Jets and it comes at an important time of the schedue for both teams.

#8  Kings on Thursday, December 29th

Reason:  The Kings are one of the up-and-coming elite teams in the NHL and with the recent off-season acquisition of Kenora’s Mike Richards are now also one of the hottest tickets in the league. The Kings have always been popular in Winnipeg dating back to the early 90’s when L.A. had Wayne Gretzky so their will surely be a few Black and Silver jerseys in the crowd. The Kings also employ Drew Doughty, the best young defenseman in the NHL.

#7  Capitals on Thursday, November 17th

Reason:  Because the Thrashers were purchased by True North and moved to Winnipeg so late in the season (May 31, 2011) the Jets will actually play in the Eastern Conference’s Southeast Division.  That means that Winnipeg fans will get to see the Washington Capitals three times, beginning with this game in mid-November. Alexander Ovechkin alone is worth the price of admission, while Nicklas Backstrom, Mike Green and Alexander Semin aren’t too bad either. I have a feeling that the Capitals are going to be Winnipeg’s biggest rivalry this season.

#6  Penguins on Saturday, October 17th

Reason: Everyone knows the reason for this one. This will be the first chance Winnipeg fans have to see Sidney Crosby in the NHL (Crosby played at the MTS Centre in 2005 for Team Canada during a World Juniors exhibition game).  Perhaps Crosby will be injured (he has been out since last January with post-concussion symptoms) but Crosby may  be healthy too. It will still be a great game without Crosby because of the presence of superstar Evgeni Malkin, two-way forward Jordan Staal and standout defenseman Kris Letang. If I knew that Crosby was in the line-up, this game would be much higher on the list, maybe even as high as #1.

#5  Flyers on Saturday, November 19th

Reason:  The Flyers seem to always be in the headlines. The last time the Jets were in the NHL, the Flyers had the Legion of Doom line featuring Eric Lindros, Mikael Renberg and John Leclair. Now the Flyers have Claude Giroux, James van Riemsdyk and Danny Briere.  This will be an afternoon game on Hockey Night in Canada and will be the first of two visits to Winnipeg for the Flyers (The Flyers also play in Winnipeg on Tuesday, February 21st).

#4  Ducks on Saturday, December 17

Reason: Teemu Selanne’s potentially triumphant return to Winnipeg. I say that because Selanne was unsigned as of late August due to injury concerns.  In order to avoid being a bigger buzzkill than buzzkillington, we are going to assume that Teemu will be here (I imagine he will be in Winnipeg even if he ends up calling it a career in the NHL) It’s funny, Teemu only played here for 2 and half years but he was arguably the most popular Jet of all time (and yes I’ve heard of Bobby Hull, Thomas Steen and Dale Hawerchuk)

#3  Coyotes on Thursday, December 1st

Reason:  The Jets became the Coyotes in 1996 and ever since then we’ve lived with the ghosts of Shane Doan and Dallas Drake. Because the Coyotes nearly moved here in the spring of 2010, we have followed them even closer the past two seasons. I strongly believe that this is going to be an intense emotional game for Jets  fans as some of us still view them as our team in a way (maybe not so much anymore, sorry Atlanta!). Regardless,  we just don’t like the Coyotes here in Winnipeg.

#2  Habs on Saturday, October 9th

Reason:  The Jets play their first home game in Winnipeg since 1996. The entire city will be watching this game. Heck, the entire country will be watching the game (The Prime Minister has even said he will be in Winnipeg if he can make it). This game will be the first of 22 games to be broadcast on CBC’s Hockey Night in Canada this year and it will surely garner media attention from all over Canada, the United States and beyond.  It’s the first of two meetings against arguably the most popular NHL franchise of all time. Is that enough of an explanation for you?

#1  Leafs on Saturday, December 31st

Reason:  It’s the New Year’s Eve game on a Saturday night on Hockey Night in Canada. Anybody who knows me knows that I like to party and this game is going to be the biggest party of 2011.  I understand that the October 9th home opener against the Habs will be #1 for most people (including IC’s Dave M) but I’m looking forward to the party at the MTS Centre when the Leafs come into a party that we’re hosting on the biggest party night of the year. Get your champagne ready!

Remember, these are just Dave and Ezzy’s Top 10 lists.  You may have a completely different list.  We always want to hear what you have to say.  Let us know in the comments section, what your Top 10 would look like and why you chose those games.

1.    There are at least 11 teams in the Eastern Conference that are better than the Jets on paper

The Jets were arguably the worst team in the Eastern Conference last season—although statistically the Senators were the victors in that fight to the bottom.  Aside from Ottawa, one could argue the Jets are a better team than the Maple Leafs, Panthers and Islanders.  Remember, one could argue that and it would be an interesting argument both ways.  The next echelon of teams, are in my mind, a cut above the Jets.

Take New Jersey for example; statistically New Jersey was the next team above the Thrashers (Jets) last season.  Here are New Jersey’s top three scorers from last season:

a)    Patrik Elias

b)   Ilya Kovalchuk

c)    Travis Zajac

Any of those three players would instantly become the best player on the Jets next season.  Never mind the fact that Zach Parise is the team’s best forward when healthy.  Of course four players does not a team make, but the Devils are probably the fourth best team in their division.  Sensing the numbers crunch?

Are the Jets better than Pittsburgh, Philadelphia or the New York Rangers?  With all due respect to Ezzy, no.

Are the Jets better than Boston, Buffalo or Montreal?  Again, one could argue maybe Montreal, but I wouldn’t buy that argument.  The Habs really improved in possession stats last season and have added (and overpaid for) Erik Cole to the mix.

What about their own division?  Washington is certainly better.  Tampa Bay just finished one game short of the Stanley Cup Finals and is essentially bringing back the same team for this upcoming season.   Carolina has a nice young core, a solid puck-moving back-end and a very consistent netminder in Cam Ward.

There you have ten teams that are, in my mind, certainly better than the Jets.

That leaves the aforementioned Leafs, Senators, Panthers and Islanders.

I suspect the Jets finish anywhere between tenth and thirteenth in the Eastern Conference this season.

2.    The Travel Schedule

Much has been made about the Jets’ lack of total travel miles this season considering they are a Midwestern team playing out of the Southeast Division.  Remember this team plays every single in conference road game in a different time zone than its home rink.

The reason for this lack of miles is because the team has many long road trips:

a)    Late October to Early November: The team has a seven-game road trip through the Southeast and Northeast.  This includes one game on the second of back-to-back nights;

b)   Early January: The team has a four-game road trip through the Northeast.  This includes one game on the second of back-to-back nights.

c)    End of January to early February: The team has a six-game road trip through the Southeast and Northeast, yet again.  This includes two games on the second of back-to-back nights; and

d)   End of March to early April: The team has a four-game road trip through the Southeast and a trip through Long Island on the way home.  This includes one game on the second of back-to-back nights.

Doesn’t sound like too much fun does it?

A quick glance at the schedule of the Jets’ four division rivals reveals:

a)    The Panthers have two four-game road trips;

b)   The Capitals have two four-game road trips and one five-game road trip;

c)    The Lightning have one four-game road trip and one five game-road trip; and

d)   The Hurricanes have three four-game road trips.

With the NHL employing a division heavy schedule (24 intra-division games) looks like the Jets will be at an overall travel disadvantage.

3.    Third New Coach in Three Years

Two seasons ago, this team employed John Anderson as head coach.  Anderson was the long time coach of the Chicago Wolves and enjoyed much success at that level—along with current Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff.  Anderson was not handed the most talented NHL roster by then GM Don Waddell but make no mistake, he was an offensive coach willing to give his players much freedom to create offense—oftentimes at the expense of defense.

Both seasons of Anderson’s tenure in Atlanta the Thrashers were 27^th in the NHL with respect to shots allowed per game.  Last season Craig Ramsay came aboard in an effort to instill more defensive responsibility upon his players.  The team had a modest, if insignificant, move to 26^th in the NHL in shots allowed.

Claude Noel obviously has a lot work to do in that regard.  But first he will have to instill a new system for his players.  The system may not be new for the Moose players now in the system but 95% of this roster will consist of players that did not play for the Moose or have not played for Noel.  It will take him time to get his message across and will likely take time for many players to learn the personality and tactics of their third coach in three years.

4.    Lack of Goal Scoring

With all due respect to Andrew Ladd (he could play on my team any day of the week), he is seen as the team’s top offensive producer.  Sure he played against top competition, drove the play in the right direction and produced very respectable offensive totals, but he still only totaled 59 points last season (just above 1.80 points per 60 minutes of even strength ice-time).  That would be easier to stomach if the Jets had a lot of offensive help on the way.  Blake Wheeler has potential, Bryan Little does as well, but that boom/bust potential obviously goes both ways.

There is a realistic chance that no player on this team cracks 30 goals this season.  If that is the case, then a whole heck of a lot of players are going to have to produce above 20 goals to make this team a viable contender.

On the other hand, one may say that this team’s talent is tailored to its defense and netminding.  While that is absolutely true, the numbers (defense wise) do not yet bear that out.

To put it simply, there are A LOT of “if this happens” or “if that happens” associated with the team’s success.  Never a good thing.

5.    The White Out Only Means So Much

Hey, I love the White Out.  It gives me goose bumps just thinking back to being in the stands at the Winnipeg Arena for Game 3 of the 1993 playoffs versus Vancouver, or Game 3 of the 1996 playoffs versus Detroit.  Home-ice advantage exists and the Jets fans will try their best to make a world of difference.  Unfortunately, if crowd noise was all that mattered the Habs probably would have won every single Stanley Cup since 1993.

The truth is, talent still wins out more often than not.  If this team ever ices an ultra-talented team, then watch out NHL.  For now, the crowd noise advantage will probably be negated by a below average team on the ice.  Patience will indeed be a virtue.

The premise of this article is why would the Winnipeg Jets shop Zach Bogosian?

The Jets may lack offensive superstars, but is trading a defensive stud who has just completed his three-year entry-level contract the answer? Sure Bogosian has a lot of developing to do, but make no mistake; much of his development has already taken place in Atlanta.  There is a reason he has seen an increase in his usage against the other team’s top players over the past three seasons?

Would trading Bogosian make the team’s strength a weakness?

More on Bogosian’s impact after the jump.

The Jets have a nice base on the back-end.  The youthful mix of Enstrom, Byfuglien and Bogosian is a terrific group core moving forward.  But the Jets’ defensive depth is somewhat overrated.  This team did not perform very well defensively last season and the team does not exactly have a bunch of stellar defenders in the system.

The team’s most “ready” defensive prospects are Paul Postma and Arturs Kulda.  Both players provide certain skill sets, but neither player is projected to be a top quality top-four defender, never mind top-two defenders.

Looking forward, the Jets only have two defenders under contract for the 2013/14 season; that being Dustin Byfuglien and Mark Stuart—two (Rick Dudley) contracts that you have to wonder whether GM Kevin Cheveldayoff would have given out on his watch?

Along the same lines, Johnny Oduya, and his $3.5 million salary, come off the books at season’s end, with Ron Hainsey off the books after the following season.  Both players are overpaid but they are also better than replacement level players.   The eventual money available after those two players come off the books may well be allotted to defense, but will defensemen anywhere close to the caliber and cost of Zach Bogosian be available at that time? Not likely.

That is the main issue.  This team has a core of three young talented defenders.  What if Byfuglien regresses though?  What if Enstrom does not want to re-sign after his contract expires at the end of the 2012-13 season?  Suddenly the team’s depth wouldn’t look so hot if a stud defenseman, who played against the opposing team’s best players last season, was not in the equation.

That is also an important aspect of this analysis.  Enstrom and Byfuglien played together last season, with Bogosian shouldering the toughest minutes of the three.  That sheltered ice-time would not exist without Bogosian (assuming they acquire a package centering on an impact forward) and Enstrom and Byfuglien’s production may thereby tail off.

Trading Bogosian likely creates a bigger hole than it fills.  Besides, the Jets hold all the leverage.  Bogosian’s only leverage at this point is to hold out—a result that is not likely considering the money he’d be leaving on the table.  When was the last time an RFA sat out into the season?  Has that even happened since the lockout?

As we wrote about a few weeks back, a two-year deal seems reasonable for both parties.  Bogosian will want that deal so he can command big, big money after two seasons, when he will have arbitration eligibility (if the arbitration system remains the same under the next CBA) and will still be under 24 years old.  The Jets, on the other hand, will want Bogosian to progress at a certain rate, especially offensively.  If the NY native has not reached those levels in two-years, the Jets have the flexibility to deal him then or sign him at a rate in line with his productivity.  In any event, they will not lose him for nothing.

Trades may seem sexy and rumors even sexier but in this instance, the “sexy” thing for the Jets to do is sign the top quality defender to a deal and get ready for October 9 versus Montreal.

Even with some rumors floating around, based on the job Kevin Cheveldayoff has done thus far, the rumors are almost assuredly more fiction than fact.

But hey, why let facts get in the way of a good summer story?

Some readers provided commentary on the story (by the way, thank you for that).  One specifically touched on the fact that Stewart could have been tendered an offer and then signed to an offer sheet for below $1,034,249 and the Jets would not have been provided with any compensation had the organization decided not to match.

That is all true.  This restricted free agent (RFA) scale was detailed in our Zach Bogosian contract analysis piece last week.  For ease of reference, here is the RFA chart once again:

Originally, the 2005 Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) set forth that contracts below $660,000 did not require draft pick compensation.  However, the CBA has a clause within Article 10.4, which sets forth that the dollar amounts on the RFA scale will raise by the same percentage increase as the average league salary each season.  Thus, we see the NHL now have only contracts over $1,034,249 requiring draft pick compensation.

More after the jump.

Anthony Stewart was an RFA this off-season because he qualified as one under Article 10.2(a)(i)(A) of the CBA being over 24 years old with at least one professional year of experience (minimum 10 NHL games in one season).

Under Paragraph 10.2(a)(ii) the Winnipeg Jets had until the first Monday after the NHL Entry Draft to tender Stewart (amongst other restricted free agents) qualifying offers to allow the organization the right of first refusal or draft choice compensation when it came to the particular RFA.

Due to the fact that Stewart’s 2010/11 contract was $632,000 last season, under Article 10.2(a)(ii)(A) Stewart was due a qualifying offer of 110% of the prior season’s value.  This put Stewart’s qualifying offer at $695,200 for the 2011/12 season.  As mentioned in yesterday’s piece that does not mean the Jets could sign Stewart at that price; rather, that is the price the Jets needed to offer to retain his rights moving forward.

Stewart, had he been qualified, would have been qualified in the form of a one-way qualifying offer (not a two-way qualifying offer) because he played at least 60 games in the NHL last season (which satisfies Article 10.2(a)(iii) of the CBA).

If the Jets were looking to sign Stewart to a contract at approximately $825,000 or so, they could have attempted to sign him at that amount.  Alternatively, another team could have attempted to sign Stewart to an offer sheet below $1,034,249 and hope that Winnipeg would not match that contract.  If the team really wanted Stewart, they could have offered at least $1,034,249 thereby resulting in draft pick compensation of a 3^rd round selection in the 2012 NHL Entry Draft.  Of course, that is based on the assumption that a team likes him enough to pay over $1,034,248 for his services and is willing to give up the appropriate compensation.

Alternatively, a team could have signed Stewart to an offer sheet between just over $695,200 and $1,034,249 and hoped that Winnipeg did not match—thus allowing them to sign Stewart for no compensation, aside from money.

One thing is for certain; the assumption that an offer sheet would be tendered is a stretch.  Offer sheets are hardly common in this day and age and are largely looked at as a slap in the face of an opposing GM (rightly or wrongly).  Maybe, just maybe, a GM would have tested new GM Kevin Cheveldayoff in this instance, but not likely.

In any event, Winnipeg would have had the right to match any offer between $695,200 and $1,034,249 but the catch is that Article 10.3(b) of the CBA sets forth that the matching team (Winnipeg in this hypothetical) would not be able to trade the RFA (Stewart) for one year from the date it exercises its right of first refusal.

The downside of that is that the Jets could then not trade Stewart, the upside is that they have him on a relatively affordable one year deal—for a player that was their most efficient power play scorer last season (albeit in a small sample size) and the team’s sixth most efficient even strength producer per 60 minutes of ice-time.

Obviously there are issues beneath the surface in this situation that we are not privy to.  The speculation is that character/attitude is a factor but the Jets did have the option of retaining his rights without fearing an offer sheet could be tendered devoid of the possibility of draft pick compensation.

The Jets could have offered Anthony Stewart salary arbitration under Article 12.1(a) of the CBA.  This clause sets out that any player over 24 years old (Stewart is 26) with over 1 year of professional experience (which Stewart has) is eligible for salary arbitration.

Article 12.1(b) further sets out that only players who qualify as RFAs (which Stewart does), who meet the qualifications of 12.1(a) (which Stewart does) and who have not signed an Offer Sheet are eligible either to elect salary arbitration or be subjected to a team’s decision to take the player to salary arbitration.

Under Article 12.2 of the CBA, a player’s agent must elect for the player’s salary arbitration by no later than 5:00 pm New York time on July 5 (today).

A team can elect salary arbitration under Article 12.3(b)(i) of the CBA which sets out that if a Group 2 RFA has not accepted the team’s qualifying offer and has not filed for arbitration himself, the club may choose to file for salary arbitration.

Article 12.3(c) further sets out that a player can only be subject to one club-elected salary arbitration in his career.  This is even the case if a club has opted for salary arbitration but has settled the contract negotiation prior to the arbitration hearing.

Additionally, Article 12.3(d) establishes that a team cannot exercise its right to elect salary arbitration more than twice per League Year.

Based upon Article 12.4(b), the Jets had to elect for salary arbitration with Stewart by July 6 (tomorrow) at 5:00 pm New York time.

The risk with respect to club-elected salary arbitration is that the Jets, had they elected for arbitration, would not have been entitled to walk away from any award as per Article 12.10(e) of the CBA.

On the other hand, the Jets would have had walk-away rights for player-elected arbitration for any one-year deal over $1,042,173 per season or a two-year deal with the same annual salary.  In this case, the club has 48 hours to make its walk-away decision.

That covers the legal wording of the CBA.

Now, let’s boil it down to “simple” (is anything simple with the CBA?) options the Jets management had:

1. Qualify Anthony Stewart at $695,200, no teams tender him an offer sheet, and attempt to sign him to a one-year deal to play in Winnipeg.  If they could not come to an agreement, and neither party opted for salary arbitration, Stewart could sit out until a contract was reached;
2. Qualify Anthony Stewart at $695,200 and risk that another team sign him to an offer sheet between that amount and below $1,034,249—resulting in no draft pick compensation if the team does not match;
3. Qualify Anthony Stewart with him receiving an offer sheet from an opposing team of at least $1,034,249 and take the draft pick compensation (3^rd round Entry Draft selection from signing team);
4. Qualify Anthony Stewart at $695,200 and take him to salary arbitration—without the option of walking away from the arbitrator’s ruling;
5. Qualify Anthony Stewart at $695,200 and risk him taking the club to salary arbitration—with the club having the option of walking away from the arbitrator’s ruling or accepting the ruling.  The possibility always exists that the club accepts the offer and then eventually trades Stewart (as Boston did with Blake Wheeler last season); and
6. Not qualify Anthony Stewart (option they chose), without any compensation.

Of the options above, choice 6 was that of least resistance.  Maybe the team wanted a clean break.  Maybe the team wanted to let Stewart get a head start on negotiating with another team.  Regardless, it appears they had options and without any assurance that a team would sign Stewart to an offer sheet below $1,034,249, it appears they let an asset (more valuable asset than he is given credit for), get away for free.

Jets fans should be happy that Kevin Cheveldayoff and company did not jump into the free agent madness.  This team is building slowly (three to five year buffer with all the season tickets already sold) and need not rush a rebuilding plan.  Never mind the fact that there was little, if any, value found during the first few days of free agency.  Most general managers cannot help themselves and tend to make at least one long-lasting mistake, the Jets brass did not do that, and for that fans should be thankful.

One more aside, no need to complain about all these “Moose signings”.  For one, the team is adding depth on the roster and its AHL roster.  The brass is familiar with these players and not one of them will crack the top nine forward corps or top four defense corps.  Furthermore, no contracts are long term so as to restrict the team’s cap flexibility down the line.

With that said, let’s focus on Anthony Stewart and the Jets’ decision not to tender him a qualifying offer.  More importantly, why has this lack of a qualifying offer not received any attention?

More after the jump.

Anthony Stewart was a player we thought would re-sign with the club at an approximate value of $825,000 per season.  The Jets ended up not qualifying him last week and he subsequently hit the free agent market and was signed by Jim Rutherford and the Hurricanes for two seasons at $1.8 million, or $900,000 per season.

Rutherford clearly liked what he saw in Stewart who has played the entirety of his NHL career (185 games) in the Southeast Division with both Florida and Atlanta.  Rutherford likely saw a 26-year-old big forward with some upside and a cost so affordable that it limited any risk.   The minimum NHL salary for next season will be $525,000 and Stewart signed for only $375,000 more than that per season.  Moreover, Stewart will be 27 after one year of his deal, so Carolina is actually buying out one of his UFA years within that contract.

Stewart was a restricted free agent (RFA) this summer and to retain his rights, the Jets needed to qualify him at just under $700,000.  That does not mean they could sign him at that rate, but they could retain his rights—meaning he could not sign with another team without the applicable draft compensation.

Was it worth it for the Jets to let a 26-year-old forward leave town for nothing?  Surely he provides more value than not; last season the big (6’3, 220 pounds) winger posted 14 goals and 25 assists in 80 games.   He moves very well for his size and is physical (98 hits—219^th in NHL).

While it has been unspoken, it appears that Stewart’s work ethic may have been a major factor in the club’s decision not to bring Stewart to Winnipeg.  The Jets brass has made it clear that character goes a long way and if they thought that was an issue (again, that is speculation not fact) they may have thought it was better to not deal with that perceived headache and, more importantly, stay true to their word.

The question then becomes, why not qualify Stewart and then sign him to a reasonable contract (between $800,000 and $900,000—hardly a lot in this NHL) then look to deal him.  If you sign him to a one-year deal, which was probably preferable for Stewart as he was set to become a UFA in a year’s time, you have the summer to look to trade him for anything (even a low draft pick).  If the team could not trade him for even a low draft pick, the option of a buy-out existed as well.

Considering his size, speed and modest scoring ability, it is difficult to think that Stewart would not have turned into at least a fourth round pick or below.

Sure those picks have little value, but little value is better than no value.

The New York State native is 20 years old, a beautiful skater, powerful hitter and a good puck mover.  There is a reason Bogosian was the 3^rd overall selection in the 2008 NHL Entry Draft behind the two most sought after restricted free agents (RFAs) this off-season: Steven Stamkos and Drew Doughty.

Rumour has it the Flyers are considering tendering an offer sheet to the former 50 goal scorer Stamkos.  Interestingly, much less has been reported about a possible offer sheet to Doughty, but the risk will be present with Doughty if the former Canadian Olympian hits July 1^st without a new contract.

While the focus of the 2008 Draft was and continues to be Stamkos and Doughty, let’s take a closer look at Zach Bogosian.

More on Bogosian after the jump.

Bogosian clearly hasn’t been in the class of the aforementioned players but at 20 years old, and having just completed his entry-level contract, is he not a prime candidate for an offer sheet?

What’s more, the Winnipeg franchise will apparently have an internal budget set for the 2010/11 (something Tampa Bay and Los Angeles may not have).  In saying that, we are not assuming the Jets would not match an offer sheet; in fact, Kevin Cheveldayoff alluded to that being the likely outcome on the IC Hockey Show a few weeks back.  However, Cheveldayoff also spoke about the inflationary nature of offer sheets and one has to wonder if he’d be tempted to take the compensation and continue the team’s rebuild in a cost effective manner.

For Bogosian to receive an offer sheet, a team would have to sacrifice the following compensation based upon the financial terms of the contract (information courtesy of NHL.com):

One aspect of offer sheets people fail to realize is that the draft picks involved in any transaction must be the draft picks of the team signing the offer sheet.  Meaning, a team that has traded its first round draft pick for the 2012 NHL Entry Draft cannot sign a player to an offer sheet over $3,134,088 because they do not have the necessary compensation available.  If that team acquires another first round pick (even a higher pick) that matters not with respect to the CBA rules—it has to be that team’s draft choice (this is why you see teams trade away their picks and then occasionally trade back for those same picks).

Looking at the numbers above, it is hard to believe Winnipeg would not instantly match any contract up to $3,134,088 per season.

Before moving onto the next contract class and the accompanying compensation, let’s take a look at some important numbers associated with Bogosian’s game over his first three seasons in the NHL.

Again, before moving onto the next class of compensation (any offer sheet above $3,134,088) let’s look at some comparables to Bogosian, as we did with Blake Wheeler.

Erik Johnson seems like a very applicable comparison in this instance.  Johnson is a right handed shooting American defenseman like Bogosian, was a high draft pick (Number 1 in the 2007 NHL Entry Draft) and signed a contract after his entry-level contract expired.  You will note that his 2008/09 season was not included, as he was injured in the off-season (playing golf—well horsing around while playing golf) and did not play a game that season.

Another right handed shooting defenseman who recently signed his second NHL contract is Kris Letang.  Now, during the IC roster breakdown, we discussed the different contracts signed by Erik Johnson and Kris Letang and the risk both assumed by agreeing to their different contracts.  We will recap the distinguishing factors of those contracts in a few paragraphs, but first let’s breakdown some of Letang’s important numbers:

After the 2009/10 season, Erik Johnson had two seasons under his belt.  He signed for two years at $2.6 million per season for a total of $5.2 million.  There was risk involved with this transaction for both sides.  For St. Louis, the risk involved Johnson breaking out over the course of the next two seasons and his market value being far higher than if he had signed a four-year deal.  Alternatively, Johnson risked the lack of security and hoped to have taken his game to the next level by the time the two seasons on the contract were complete.  In hindsight, maybe the Blues were not sold on Johnson—hence his trade to Colorado, but at the time, that seemed to be the prevailing thought process for both sides.

In contrast, Letang signed a four-year deal worth a total of $14 million, or $3.5 million per season.  Letang took security in favour of flexibility and the Penguins opted for the risk (seemingly worthwhile at this point) that Letang would continue to progress on his development curve and provide excess value later on in the contract, if not right away.

Remember that Johnson’s contract was negotiated prior to 2010/11—the only reason those season numbers are provided above is to allow for a first three NHL seasons comparison vis a vis Bogosian.

When comparing these players in order to set a range of contract figures, it comes to light that Bogosian has been employed in a far more defensive role than either of Johnson/Letang.

Bogosian has never seen more than 2:00 minutes per game average on the power play, starts a large number of his shifts in the defensive zone and plays against the other team’s top competition.  Also, he is trusted with significant penalty killing minutes.  Johnson and Letang out produce Bogosian points wise but Bogosian has demonstrated potential in that respect—the differences are not as striking as many would believe.

Overall, Bogosian’s agent could certainly make the argument that he is due for a contract with Winnipeg in the $2.6 million to $2.9 million range.

Now, of course, comes the offer sheet factor.  For a team to make the compensation even something to consider for Cheveldayoff and Heisinger, it needs to exceed $3,134,088.  Even then, a first and a third round pick—depending on the team, may not seem like close to an even trade off.

Then what about the next class of compensation; well, that begins at $4,701,131 and warrants compensation of a first, second and third round pick.  At that financial level, the Jets would have to consider the value of overpaying Bogosian combined with the compensation available.  Although, one would think even with the addition of a second round pick, and an inflated salary, the team would likely match.

The next level is $6,268,175 and warrants compensation of two first round picks, a second round pick and a third round pick.  At that inflated salary and with that value in return, the Jets would likely let Bogosian walk.  However the truth is that an offer like that is not likely, or even remotely likely, to happen.

Thus, it appears that the Winnipeg organization will be negotiating without a real fear of an offer sheet (unless a team drives Winnipeg to overpay at about the $4.0 to $4.5 million range just to throw off their cap projections—see Niklas Hjalmarsson last season).

With the threat of an offer sheet unlikely, Bogosian seems to carry a per season value of about $2.6 to $2.9 million on a two-year deal.  If the deal were for longer, which is probably unlikely considering the team’s lack of familiarity with him, then his salary would likely have a higher per year cap hit (think $3.3 to $3.5 million or so).

**Thanks to Mike Colligan for the updated RFA compensation figures**

**Thanks to Gabe Desjardins for the advanced statistics**

Peverley’s acquisition (along with Boris Valabik), however, came at the expense of Blake Wheeler and Mark Stuart. Wheeler flourished (albeit over a small sample size) over the remainder of the season in Atlanta.  The overall line of thinking at the time of the trade was that it was a short-term for long-term deal for the Thrashers.  Peverley is older than Wheeler and consequently closer to unrestricted free agency a.k.a. a likely inflated salary and thereby providing less value.

The focus of today’s piece is on Blake Wheeler’s market value as a restricted free agent (RFA) in this marketplace.  During IC’s team analysis, we broached the subject of Wheeler’s free agent value and pegged him at approximately $2.75 million for the upcoming season.

More about Wheeler’s value to the Jets after the jump.

Let’s take a closer look at Wheeler’s statistics and some comparables to delve deeper into this prospective contract negotiation for the Winnipeg franchise.

Wheeler was fairly consistent in his production and use while playing for the Bruins.  The American winger basically played third line minutes, with favorable usage in the offensive zone off of face-offs, and generally played against difficult competition.  Wheleer is a big player who is harnessing his size and beginning to utilize it more than he did early on in his career.  His talent is evident, as he moves well for a player of his size and can shoot the puck (minimum 18 goals each of the above three seasons).

Last season Wheeler made $2.2 million, a contract he obtained through arbitration.  If the Bruins weren’t willing to spend on him to avoid salary arbitration last summer, it is no surprise they dealt him prior to the trade deadline to avoid a similar contract stalemate over the summer.

With Wheeler’s production in mind, and the fact that he is 24 years old with three full NHL seasons under his belt—having played a minimum of 81 games in each season—let’s take a look at some comparable offensive producers in the same range:

We will evaluate each player’s statistics for this past season and then discuss their respective contract situations in an additional chart.

The above player put up similar numbers to Wheeler but each one, aside from Versteeg’s short stay in Philadelphia, were afforded more of an opportunity on the power play and at even strength (aside from Wheeler’s brief stint in Atlanta).

Let’s evaluate each player’s contract situation:

Voracek has completed three NHL seasons; his entry-level contract is now complete and he is entering his first RFA negotiation.

Versteeg’s contact extension, 3 years at $9.25 million was inflated because of a botched qualifying offer problem with the Blackhawks—who had to overpay to retain his rights.

Little re-signed with Atlanta in August of 2010 to a three-year deal worth $7.15 million.

Hornqvist re-signed with Nashville in August of 2010, as well, for a deal of three years at $9.25 total.

Berglund just recently signed a two-year extension at $4.5 million total.

The above contracts average out to approximately $2.65 million per season—taking into account Versteeg’s contract, which was probably inflated by the lack of a valid qualifying offer and Hawks’ fear of losing him for nothing.

Considering Wheeler’s numbers compare favorably to the above players, a contract in the neighborhood of $2.75 million to $3.1 million seems reasonable.

The above contracts were also two to three years in duration.  Modeling St. Louis and the organization’s extension with Patrik Berglund, and considering the Jets’ lack of familiarity with Wheeler as a player, a two-year deal seems reasonable for both parties.

Wheeler is almost certainly not going to garner an offer-sheet so look for the Jets to focus on re-signing Zach Bogosian and Andrew Ladd prior to signing him to a new deal.

Deciding to start a career in hockey, is similar to moving to LA to get into showbiz. Naturally, Zinger’s parents weren’t too keen when they heard about his career aspirations

“I remember that talk very vividly, there were not a lot of times where my dad sat down on the couch and looked at me the way he did that day.”

While Zinger’s passion was for hockey, his parents wanted him to try something more conventional.

“I remember thinking I wanted to give hockey a try; they wanted me to try an apprenticeship”

“My dad was a pipe fitter with the CNR and I had an opportunity to be an apprentice at a small airline and gave it a try for a small period of time, but it was going nowhere.”

“Hockey was something I had a passion for, I wanted to try it, I gave myself a 3 year window to give it a try, and it all seemed to work”

Comparing today’s announcement to being named GM of the Moose in 2002

“Well its different, I remember in 02 I was really concerned about perception, I was 3 years removed for an equipment guy, as much respect as I have for that position, I wasn’t 100% sure if everybody else did, and now the young players don’t even know my background.”

“I’ve always had the attitude I’ve had to work every day to earn peoples respect, I’ve never tried to demand it, I feel more comfortable and confident today than I did in 2002.”

Heisinger considered taking the top job, but ultimately felt that the tandem of Heisinger and Cheveldayoff gave them the strongest management team

“I just feel 100% at the end of the day I’ve always been a Kevin Cheveldayoff fan, for a long period of time, I think this structure the way it is laid out now, gives us the opportunity for success, I’m so behind Chevy, I’m sure if you ask Mark the same question, I think this gives us the strongest management team and the best chance for success.”

It’s an incredible story coming from equipment manager to VP of Hockey Operations & Assistant GM. It is clear that Heisinger, is aware of his roots, and knows that in order to move forward he’ll have to continue to work as hard as he has throughout his career. I have a feeling we’ll be hearing about the Heisinger & Cheveldayoff duo for years to come.

Listen to the media scrum with Craig Heisinger here

For whatever reason, Dudley has never really been universally accepted as your typical NHL GM.  Maybe it is his aversion to fashion, or his dated comb-over; either way, he just never really seems to play the part.  That is, of course, through no fault of his own.  You get the impression that Dudley is who he is regardless of the managerial position he is employed in.

The problem was, if Dudley came to Winnipeg, he was bringing his own fraternity.  When Dudley took over the reins in Atlanta with that came the hiring of Craig Ramsay and John Torchetti, amongst others.  It is not that the hockey people in Atlanta are not qualified to make the transition north; it is that choices had to be made.  An organization cannot have two people holding the same day-to-day responsibilities.  Truth North wants Craig Heisinger to play a role in its management team and appears to want Claude Noel to coach its hockey team.  With those qualified people already in place, the team could not retain the likes of Dudley and Ramsay.

With Dudley’s dismissal, now seems like the appropriate time to evaluate his tenure in Atlanta.

Dudley left the Blackhawks organization after the 2008/09 season, otherwise known as the season prior to the Blackhawks’ Stanley Cup season.  Dudley’s first season in Atlanta saw him work under the title of Associate General Manager.  With Dudley working hand-in-hand with Don Waddell that season, for the purposes of this analysis, we are not going to analyze the 2009/10 season because it is difficult to properly classify trades and signings as either Dudley’s or Waddell’s.

As a result, we really only  have one full year of Dudley’s work to analyze—April 2010 through April 2011.

Here are the significant moves made by Dudley, with analysis alongside:

June 25, 2010: Named Craig Ramsay Head Coach.  The Ramsay hiring was not unpredictable, as Ramsay and Dudley dated back to their Sabres days together.  It is very difficult to analyze a coach after merely one season at the helm.  Especially a team that was coached the seasons prior by an offensive coach like John Anderson who was known more so for his offensive freedom than systematic teachings of the game.  Ramsay had some good moments and poor moments as coach of the Thrashers, but his overall grade can be nothing but incomplete. Grade: Incomplete

July 1, 2010: Signed Chris Mason to a two-year contract worth $1.85 million per season.  Mason struggled in his first season in Atlanta but the signing at the time looked quite reasonable.  In fact, pairing Mason with Ondrej Pavelec was a shrewd move.  Mason is experienced, a positive force in the locker room and carries career numbers that demonstrate his talent is far better than his one season in Georgia.  The commitment was not too long and the money was not too large. Grade: B

July 22, 2010: Re-signed Ondrej Pavelec to a two-year contract worth $1.15 million per season.  If you had the opportunity to read Illegal Curve’s roster analysis of the new Winnipeg franchise, you would know that I am a big fan of the Thrashers’ current goaltending tandem based both on talent and financial compensation.  Pavelec is signed at a more than reasonable contract for next season, which will allow Kevin Cheveldayoff and company to decide whether he warrants a longer term, bigger money commitment.  Of note, Cheveldayoff was GM of the Chicago Wolves while Pavelec was developing. Grade: B+

June 24, 2010: Acquired Dustin Byfuglien, Ben Eager, Brent Sopel and Akim Aliu for a 1st round pick, 2nd round pick, Marty Reasoner, Joey Crabb and Jeremy Morin.  The trade consisted of a lot of names but really boiled down to Dustin Byfuglien for a 1st round pick and a 2nd round pick.  The draft has a lottery element to it and Dudley was able to add Byfuglien to his roster without giving up his own team’s 1st round pick—remember the pick in this trade was New Jersey’s from the Kovalchuk deal (24th overall).  A lower first round selection included in a package for an up and coming winger/defenseman with unpolished skills but a ton of potential is a risk, but a calculated one at that.  Byfuglien ended up playing extremely well for Atlanta in season one.  His offense from the back-end could serve a significant asset for Winnipeg moving forward. Grade: B+

July 1, 2010: Acquired Andrew Ladd for Ivan Vishnevskiy and a second round pick in 2011.  Another positive move by Dudley.  He was familiar with Ladd from his time in Chicago, where Ladd was a valuable asset who created mismatches every night for the opposing team’s bottom four defensemen.  Ladd is now the team’s captain, led the team in goal scoring and points and is in the midst of his prime.  Moreover, Dudley signed Ladd soon after the trade to a one-year deal for $2.35 million.  Vishnevskiy has potential but the move was a clear win for an Atlanta team with lots of defensemen on the roster and a number in the system waiting to crack the top-six. Grade: B+

August 23, 2010: Re-signed Bryan Little to a three-year extension at $2.4 million per season.  Little has the potential to be a 30-goal scorer; in fact, he scored 31 goals in 2008/09 for the Thrashers.  The problem for Atlanta is that he totaled 31 goals over the next two seasons.  Even so, at $2.4 million per season for two more seasons, at age 23 and with terrific stick skills, there are far, far worse investments for $2.4 million per season. Grade: B

February 15, 2011: Signed Dustin Byfuglien to a five-year contract extension at $5.2 million per season.  The acquisition of Byfuglien was a deft one by Dudley.  This contract, however, demonstrated that Dudley might have been a little bit to eager to reward his off-season acquisition.  “Big Buff” was signed to this extension just after his impressive first-half numbers—or close to his peak value.  His talents are there to possibly make good on this contract but signing a player in the midst of his first year full year on defense in the NHL, who doesn’t play significant minutes on the penalty kill and has room to improve defensively seemed unnecessary. Grade: C

February 18, 2011: Acquired Blake Wheeler and Mark Stuart for Rich Peverley and Boris Valabik.  This was a very shrewd move by Dudley.  Wheeler has the combination of size and talent to be a very good top-six forward for the next few years.  In Boston, where Claude Julien is loathe to trust young players, Wheeler was getting regular ice-time but generally along the lines of a third line player.  After his move to Atlanta, which albeit is a very small sample size, he was afforded more of an opportunity to create offense and play on the power play. Along with Wheeler came Mark Stuart, a rugged stay-at-home defenseman.  Stuart provided a different element on the Thrashers’ back-end, although his contract extension will be mentioned later on.  In terms of what he gave up, Valabik is a big defenseman who was long compared to Zdeno Chara—more so based on his size and nationality than his talents on the ice.  Peverley provides nice offensive totals for his $1.3 million cap hit, but is a pending UFA after next season and has less upside than Wheeler. Grade: B+

February 24, 2011: Acquired Ben Maxwell and a 2011 4^th round pick for Brent Sopel and Nigel Dawes.  This was a nice move by Dudley.  Sopel was a veteran on a team with too many defenseman; but more importantly, he was a pending UFA who was not about to re-sign in Atlanta/Winnipeg.  Dawes was playing tag between Chicago of the AHL and Atlanta all season long and was deemed expendable.  In return the Thrashers received Ben Maxwell a player with some offensive talent, who is 23 years old and could return some value for the franchise moving forward. Grade: B

February 28, 2011: Signed Mark Stuart to a three-year contract extension at $1.7 million per season.  This contract was unnecessary.  With Byfuglien, Hainsey and Enstrom all signed through 2012/13, the Thrashers have a significant amount of money tied up on the back-end.  Too much, in fact.  While Dudley may have liked how difficult Stuart is to play against, with his physical style, his slot on the team appears to be as a fifth or sixth defenseman. Grade: C-

Overall, Rick Dudley’s one year on the job was certainly encouraging in many respects.  His talent acquisition was strong and some of his contracts were reasonable in terms of duration and dollars.  Unfortunately he made some aggressive signings, which did not appear to be necessary at the time.  That being said, many GMs have difficulty acquiring talent like Blake Wheeler, Andrew Ladd and Dustin Byfuglien during one year on the job.

In the end, Truth North is of the belief that an organization is best to put its own people in charge–people True North has vast experience with.  That is because with experience comes trust and with trust comes more certainty.  While TNSE may not have felt entirely comfortable with Rick Dudley in charge of its organization, Dudley should feel comfortable with the organization he is leaving in their capable hands.

We’re number 7!

Well, the good news for Winnipeg/Manitoba hockey fans is that might mean the chance to draft the next Jeff Skinner for our new NHL franchise.

Winnipeg/Manitoba will have the 7th overall pick at the 2011 NHL Entry Draft in Minneapolis, Minnesota on Friday, June 24, 2011 and if last year’s 7th overall pick, Carolina Hurricanes forward Jeff Skinner, is any indication of the draft number’s potential, we very well could be watching the next Calder Trophy Winner (Skinner is nominated for and is expected to win The 2010’11 Calder Trophy for the league’s top rookie player) in just under four months at The MTS Centre.

The purpose of this article is to give you a little sneak peek at who the Winnipeg/Manitoba franchise might select with its First Round draft pick and what may lead True North Sports & Entertainment and its management team to make said decision.

Let’s look at The Top 20 Rated North American Prospects as ranked by NHL Central Scouting.  To read entire article, click read more.

Source: TSN NHL Draftcentre

Now, as we discussed on The Illegal Curve Hockey Show this past week, we believe that The Winnipeg/Manitoba franchise’s strength currently lies in its defence and goaltending and its biggest weakness is depth at the forward position.  Because Winnipeg/Manitoba has young, talented defensemen in abundance in Tobias Enstrom, Dustin Byfuglien and Zach Bogosian, plus prospects Arturs Kulda and Paul Postma (stay tuned to Illegal Curve as we’ll have detailed prospect reports on these players), we feel that their focus at The NHL Entry Draft and in Free Agency should be securing skilled forwards.

Based on this assertion, The Winnipeg/Manitoba franchise will almost surely target a player that may be ready to step into The NHL next season with its first round selection.

We must mention a few things before we continue. Firstly, the incoming 2011 NHL Draft class is considered to be strong by some and a little weak by others. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Gabriel Landeskog, Adam Larsson (Swedish defenseman who played for Skelleftea and was ranked 2nd overall by International Scouting Services) and Jonathan Huberdeau are considered to be top-flight prospects and are expected to go somewhere in the top four but after that this draft class is fairly unknown.

Hold on though. Don’t get too jaded.  Heading into last year’s NHL Entry Draft, Jeff Skinner (then of of The OHL’s Kitchener Rangers) was ranked 34th overall by Central Scouting and we all know how he turned out.

Of the Top 20 rated prospects, Winnipeg/Manitoba would love to get their hands on Landeskog, Nugent-Hopkins or Huberdeau but it’s expected that those three will be gone by the time Craig Heisinger/Mark Chipman/New GM step to the podium on June 24th with the 7th overall pick.

Now, with Larsson expected to go to either Edmonton or Colorado at either 1st or 2nd overall, here’s where it gets interesting. The New York Islanders and Ottawa Senators are picking fifth overall and sixth overall respectively, right ahead of the Winnipeg/Manitoba franchise.

The Islanders are rebuilding but have lots of young offensive talent in John Tavares, Kyle Okposo, Josh Bailey and Michael Grabner while Ottawa is also stronger at forward than on defense. Ottawa’s top rearguards right now are Sergei Gonchar and Chris Phillips, who are not exactly youngsters (It should be noted that Erik Karlsson is an up-and-comer on the Sens blueline).

What this means is that Center Sean Couturier (Drumondville Voltigeurs), the 2010’11 QMJHL MVP and only draft eligible player to play for Canada at The 2011 World Junior Hockey Championships, may be available at the 7th overall pick.  Couturier simply oozes offensive potential, as he was the first 17 year-old since Sidney Crosby to lead the QMJHL in scoring (96 points in 2009’10). Couturier had 96 points again in 2010’11 which is fine but Couturier fell down the draft rankings (He was ranked 2nd overall by NHL Central Scouting at mid-season) as some believed his play and work ethic tailed off down the stretch this year. Regardless, Couturier has the size, speed and hands that any NHL team would want in today’s fast and furious game. Winnipeg/Manitoba will be forced to consider him at 7th overall. It should be noted that Couturier does have work to do on his defensive game and conditioning, but so do many players at this age.

Moving down the list, Center Ryan Strome may be the next best option at forward. This is no knock to Winger Sven Baertschi (Ranked 7th overall, played for WHL’s Portland Winterhawks) but Strome is pure offensive power personified. Strome skyrocketed up the draft rankings this year (Strome was ranked 19th by CSS at mid-season) playing for Niagara in The Ontario Hockey League. Strome finished 3rd in OHL scoring with 106 points and impressed many scouts with his offensive creativity and ability to find his teammates at all areas of the ice. Strome is hot right now and might not even be available at 7th overall and Ottawa/New York could be interested in him.

There are two more players that we want to look at who we consider to be good options but let’s pause for just a second.

You may have noticed that Couturier and Strome are both center prospects. Well, this sits well with IC as The Winnipeg/Manitoba franchise, in our opinion, does not have enough depth at this all-important position.  Nikolai Antropov (31 years old, 41 points in 76 games last year) centered the top line at times last year along with Bryan Little (23 years old, 48 points in 76 games)  while Alexandre Burmistrov (20 years old, 20 points in 74 games) centered the third line. Finally, Tim Stapleton, Jim Slater and Ben Maxwell took turns centering the team’s fourth line.

So back to the prospects.

Another good option for Winnipeg/Manitoba at the 7th overall slot may be Zack Phillips (Saint John Sea Dogs of The QMJHL), who is rated a little further down the list at 15th overall by CS but who could easily be ranked several slots higher. Phillips has been ranked in The Top 15 for North American prospects for quite some time now but his stock has gone way up since The Sea Dogs won the Memorial Cup. Phillips had 38 goals and 95 points for Saint John this year and another 24 points in the playoffs. The scouting report on Phillips is that he is strong on the puck, has nifty hands and is extremely intelligent in all three zones. Most importantly, however is that he is known for a very strong work ethic and for pushing his teammates. These are intangibles that True North loves.

Mika Zibanejad is an interesting wild card. Zibanejad is a offensive-minded center who played for Djurgarden in Sweden and has an all-around bang and crash type of game. Zibanejad is ranked 7th overall by International Scouting Services and there have been rumblings that a team could take him as high as fourth. Zibanejad describes himself as playing a Canadian style of game and even though scouts have disagreed on his offensive upside, he has garnered quite a bit of positive attention.

Other players that Winnipeg/Manitoba may strongly consider at the 7th overall pick are Center Mark McNeill (WHL’s Prince Albert Raiders), Center Mark Scheifele (OHL’s Barrie Colts) and RW Ty Rattie (WHL’s Portland Winterhawks).

Let us know who you think should be taken with the first ever pick by the Winnipeg/Manitoba franchise.  Sound off in the comments section.

Part I: Forwards

Part II:  Restricted Free Agents & Cap Situation

Part III:  Defensemen

Part IV:  Goaltending

Part V: Free Agent Forwards, Cap Situation and the Team Moving Forward

About the only thing Richard left out of his analysis was the current status of the Thrashers Ice Girls and whether or not they will be coming to Winnipeg.

Unrestricted free agents (UFA) are not as desirable as they were pre-lockout.  Generally, teams lockdown their best players well into their UFA years, which limits the amount of quality star players hitting the market each season.   Winnipeg fans, however, should not expect this team to dabble into signing superstar UFA players.  This year’s crop centers around Brad Richards, a player who would look good on anyone’s team but a player that will demand a ticket that is not going to be considered by the Winnipeg franchise.

Not having the funds, or at least the willingness to spend the funds on star players does not limit the team’s ability to be creative in free agency.  Of the areas the team needs to improve, top-six right wing slot is an area of need.  Here are a few players that may be of interest to Winnipeg this off-season:

Of the three above listed players, the most desirable may very well be Scottie Upshall.  He is an Alberta boy, is the youngest of the group and has produced nice point totals while playing modest ice-time throughout his career.  The Winnipeg brass may have some extra insight into his abilities, as Upshall finished last season in Columbus playing under former Moose coach Scott Arniel.  Upshall’s speed and willingness to go to the net would endear him to fans in the city.

Read more about Winnipeg’s Free Agent Forwards, Cap Situation and what the team will look like Moving Forward after the jump by clicking read more.

Radim Vrbata is more of a strictly skill player.  He has good hands and a good wrist shot but lacks in the physical department and can disappear at times.  His offensive skills would be helpful to a team in need of some pure offensive talent up front.

Joel Ward had a coming out party in the playoffs.  That may result in more money in the free agency process but a short playoff run does not a career make.  The hard working 30 year old can provide a coach with flexibility in terms of what situations to play him in, but his lack of offensive production would likely outweigh his value on a team lacking overall skill up front.

Overall Cap Situation

This is how the cap situation may very well look for Winnipeg prior to the team signing any free agents from outside the organization:

Projecting $52.87 million as a self-imposed salary cap by the franchise would leave $4.13 million in available cap funds.  That is of course assuming the above figures are fairly accurate and that the team does not offload some salary.  However, if no defensemen or goaltenders are moved, the team is likely to spend that available money at the forward position.

Moving Forward

The way they are currently constructed, Winnipeg will have a difficult time making the playoffs next season.  Even so, this team is a few successful draft picks, a couple free agent signings and some internal development away from becoming a very good franchise.  Make no mistake, the pieces are in place to take this team to the next level but as with all young teams, patience will be a virtue in Winnipeg’s first season back in the NHL since 1996.

Regardless of the team’s initial success, I think I speak for all Winnipeggers in saying, “Go Jets Go” (even if the name isn’t Jets).

**Special thanks to the tremendous websites Behind the Net and CapGeek for many of the above listed figures**

Winnipeg has two netminders signed for next season in Ondrej Pavelec and Chris Mason.  These two netminders form a nice one-two punch in terms of age, Pavelec being 23 and Mason being 35.

Here are the two netminders’ important statistics from last season:

As you can tell, Winnipeg has a total of $3.00 million locked up in their two netminders, both of whom are pending free agents after next season; Pavelec a restricted free agent and Mason an unrestricted free agent.

That type of cap flexibility is an asset for Winnipeg management moving forward, especially because it allows the organization one more season to evaluate Pavelec and to determine if his very solid numbers from the 2010/11 season are indeed an accurate reflection of his talent level.

It should not be understated, however, how much the influence of Mason’s veteran presence should help the youngster moving forward.  There were some rumblings from Atlanta that management wanted Pavelec in better condition last season and thought some issues in that respect contributed to Pavelec’s struggles at times.  Mason is a respected veteran in the room, has a solid track record with a career save percentage of .911 and can play a significant portion of games so as to not wear down the Czech youngster.

Taking into account the money tied up on defense, the amount of cap flexibility for the team in between the pipes is a refreshing reality for fans and management alike.  Pavelec and Mason should form a tandem that is likely to provide value, which is going to be optimal to the success of this franchise.

Part V of the analysis will look at Free Agent Forwards, the current Cap Situation and the team Moving Forward.

Winnipeg has a very, very impressive young base on defense.  The team’s best all-around defenseman as of today is arguably Tobias Enstrom.  The Swedish defender will remind Winnipeggers of Teppo Numminen—goes about his business the right way, smart player and perennially underrated.  Enstrom is joined by Roseau, Minnesota’s Dustin Byfuglien.  “Big Buff” is now going to be afforded the opportunity of playing within three hours driving distance of his hometown in Northern Minnesota.  The two defenders played the majority of last season as defense partners with Enstrom manning the left side and Byfuglien the right.  The combination is tremendous at moving the puck and creating offense.  Enstrom is stronger than Byfuglien when it comes to defensive play and Byfuglien is the more physical player of the two.

As much as Enstrom and Byfuglien were considered to be the top pairing in the ATL last season, it was actually 20 year old Zach Bogosian who played against the opposing team’s top competition on the most consistent basis.  Bogosian has loads of talent.  He can skate, shoot, hit and create offense.  Defenseman like Bogosian do not grow on trees; the former Peterborough Pete can be a game-changing defenseman with time and further development.  Bogosian played the majority of last season with former New Jersey Devils defender Johnny Oduya.  Oduya is a good skater who slots in as more of a fourth defenseman focused mainly on playing a solid stay-at-home style.  With Enstrom, Byfuglien and Bogosian on the squad, Oduya does not have to force offense.

Read more about Winnipeg’s defensemen after the jump by clicking read more.

Hailed as an offensive prospect when ascending through the Montréal Canadiens organization, Ron Hainsey learned to play a well-rounded game while playing under Ken Hitchcock in Columbus.  Through no fault of his own, former Thrashers GM Don Waddell opened the Atlanta Spirit Group wallets to Hainsey in the summer of 2008.  Hainsey signed for $4.5 million cap hit per season for five seasons.  Under the Thrashers’ coaching staff last season, Hainsey was essentially employed as a fifth defenseman.  In few markets can a team afford to have a fifth defenseman earning that kind of salary but in markets that do not go right up against the cap it makes maneuvering the cap even more difficult.

The sixth defenseman job will be an interesting battle, as Winnipeg has some prospects in the system, namely Artus Kulda, who could earn that spot without salaries being taken into the equation.  For now, though, Mark Stuart, who Rick Dudley signed to a two-year contract extension soon after acquiring him from Boston in the Rich Peverley trade, may be the favourite for that slot.  Stuart’s ticket is now $1.7 million cap hit per season for the next three seasons.  Again, through no fault of his own, Stuart is making a lot of money for a sixth or so defenseman.

Winnipeg has way, way, way too much money locked into their four through six defensemen for this season.

Let’s take a look at the team’s defense one through six in terms of age, contracts and ice-time:

The chart above, while fairly simple, reveals some points of interest.  First, Tobias Enstrom is very good value for his production.  Second, Dustin Byfuglien has to start playing some time on the penalty kill at a reasonable level to justify his contract moving forward.  Zach Bogosian is playing big minutes for a 20-year-old defenseman, is in for a more than reasonable payday and eventually will be the team’s best defenseman—the last portion of that statement being a point of opinion than a reflection of the above chart.

The top three defensemen on Winnipeg are young, talented and only going to get better.  The bottom three defensemen carry tickets too large to occupy those slots on the team.  Combined, the bottom three defensemen on the team make $9.7 million per season.

Earlier, we used the Nashville comparison for Winnipeg’s salary cap structure.  Well, the Predators paid their bottom three defensemen of Blum, O’Brien and Franson $3.34 million.

Before even signing Bogosian to a new contract, Winnipeg currently have $18.65 million locked up in the team’s defense corps.  Spending money on defense has been a successful strategy for teams like Detroit and Chicago, but even those teams pay their fifth and six defensemen very little in comparison (see: Salei, Ericsson, Campoli and Leddy).

With respect the Bogosian negotiations; the big American rear guard just completed the final year of his entry-level contract.  Winnipeg will automatically qualify him but he is in for a fairly significant ticket moving forward.

Let’s look a couple of defensemen who were in a similar situation to Bogosian within the last year:

By signing for a shorter period of time both the Blues (Johnson is now an Avalanche but signed this contract with St. Louis) and Johnson incurred some risk.  Johnson gave up the security of a long-term deal.  Conversely, the Blues incurred the risk that Johnson would have two breakout seasons and would be worth far more in that third season than he would have been had they signed him long-term in the summer of 2010.

On the other hand, Kris Letang took the security of a long-term contract and the risk that he could produce at a high level (which he has) and not cash in on that success earlier than four seasons down the road.

As you can probably tell, Bogosian and Winnipeg management have a number of options on their respective hands.

For interest sake, why don’t we split the difference and project that Bogosian signs a three-year contract at $3.1 million per season.

That would bring the team’s top six defense contract total to $21.75 million.  Remember, the team could conceivably have 14 forwards at approximately $24 million, so you can almost be assured that Winnipeg will look to cut some salary on the back-end if at all possible.

Next let’s identify the team’s restricted free agents.  Led by two-time Stanley Cup champion Andrew Ladd, Winnipeg will have some work to do when it comes to signing their own free agent forwards.

Obviously being a restricted free agent (RFA) means you have not yet reached your late 20s, but the quality of this group of forwards, combined with the forwards above speaks to the talented young core of Winnipeg’s squad.

Projecting contracts is not an easy task, but let’s attempt to at least estimate a range within which the above players should earn on their next deals.

Andrew Ladd

The 25-year-old captain has already hoisted two Stanley Cups, with Carolina and Chicago respectively and had his most productive offensive season in 2010/11 posting 59 points in 81 games.  Ladd led the team with 29 goals, logging just over 20 minutes per game.  His cap hit last season was a modest $2.35 million, so expect the rugged forward to look for a significant increase.  Ladd produced 1.85 points per 60 minutes of even strength ice time, which is good but not great. The season prior he posted a more efficient 2.11 rate with the Blackhawks.  The key, of course, was that Ladd played against tougher competition in Atlanta than he did in Chicago.   That, increased power play time and a slightly better shooting percentage contributed to his increased offensive production in 2010/11. With Winnipeg counting on him to maintain his role as a top-six forward, last season’s production seems more in line with his overall talent level.

Read more about Winnipeg’s Restricted Free Agents & Cap Situation after the jump by clicking read more.

Players right around Ladd in terms of points, ice-time and age this season include: Mikhail Grabovski, Dustin Brown and RJ Umberger.

Grabovski is 27 years old, signed for $2.9 million next season but is an unrestricted free agent the season after and is set for a salary increase.

Brown is 26 years old and is signed for three more seasons at $3.175 million per season.

Umberger is 29 years old, signed for $3.75 million cap hit next season and is a UFA the season after that.

The most likely comparable of the above group to Ladd is Brown.  They are both rugged players, although Brown draws more penalties, both are captains of their respective teams and both have similar offensive potential.  Let’s assume for the purposes of this article that Ladd signs a three-year deal at a rate of $3.6 million per season.

Blake Wheeler

Blake Wheeler has been an interesting player ever since the Coyotes took him as a fairly considerable surprise at fifth overall in the 2004 NHL Entry Draft.  Wheeler is a big player, listed at 6’5, 205 pounds who has taken a while to develop into an offensive performer.  After he arrived in Atlanta, he had 17 points in 23 games and played just under 19:00 minutes per night, which consisted of over 2:00 minutes of time per game on the man advantage.  Wheeler was given more of an opportunity than he had in Boston where he was playing approximately 15:00 minutes per night with about 1:00 of power play time per contest.  Wheeler’s even strength offensive efficiency was first on the Thrashers when you take into account his time with Boston.  The 24 year old raked in $2.2 million in 2010/11, but did not really increase his offensive production in three years in Boston, so a modest increase to $2.75 million per season for two years may be a reasonable deal both sides can deal with.

Ben Maxwell and Rob Schremp

Rick Dudley acquired both Maxwell and Schremp later in the 2010/11 season.  Maxwell was part of the Brent Sopel trade and Schremp was claimed off waivers from the Islanders.  Maxwell played 12 games for Atlanta last season and Schremp played 18 games.

Maxwell carried an $850,000 cap hit last season on the final year of his entry-level contract.  That cap hit consisted of a base salary of $650,000 which means he requires a 10% increase on any qualifying offer he receives.  If Maxwell accepts that qualifying offer, that would mean he would be under contract next season for a contract of $715,000.

Schremp is in a similar situation to Maxwell except for he has already been placed on waivers and carries less weight in negotiations.  If the Winnipeg brass likes his game, as he does possess good hands, nice hockey sense and solid passing skills, he will probably find himself signing at a rate in line with his qualifying offer for next season.  Under the CBA rules, Schremp’s qualifying offer requires a 5% raise, putting his NHL contract at $788,288 for next season.  However, one catch is that the Jets can still qualify him under a two-way contract—meaning an NHL rate and AHL rate in the event he is sent to the minors.  It is likely that if Winnipeg qualify Schremp, he will accept that salary on a one-year contract.

Anthony Stewart

Stewart was a first round pick in the 2003 Entry Draft by the Florida Panthers.  The older brother of Chris Stewart of the Avalanche, Anthony came into his own last season playing 80 games, logging just under 15:00 minutes per game and even seeing some power play time.  Stewart is big, weighing in at 230 pounds and standing 6’3.  He scored 14 goals last season and may have carved himself a role on the team’s third line moving forward.  Stewart earned $632,000 last season and a qualifying offer would see him make just under $700,000.  Stewart proved he can shoulder some of the load last season and could see his contract jump to around the $825,000 mark.

So, if the five restricted free agents sign for approximately what they have been slotted in for within this series, here is the chart again:

Now the above is obviously based on a number of assumptions but for the sake of this series, let’s calculate the numbers of forwards under contract for next season under this hypothetical and the according cap hits:  14 forwards, total cap hit of approximately $24.00 million.

Cap Situation

Most fans are under the assumption that the team will not spend up to the salary cap.  With all the talk of a team coming back to Winnipeg, fans generally equated the team’s future cap situation to that of the Predators in Nashville.

The Predators sat at $50.9 million last season, which was approximately 86% of the way up to the salary cap ceiling.  Under the assumption that Winnipeg utilizes that same strategy and with the cap rumoured by Larry Brooks of the NY Post to be $62.2 million, they conceivably could have a salary load of approximately $52.87 million.

On that basis, the team has approximately 45% of its available cap money tied up in its forward corps.  Now remember that we accounted for 14 forwards, some of whom likely will not be with the team.  Additionally, later in this piece we will be looking at which players are available for Winnipeg to target in free agency.

The next stop in analysis will be a focus on the team’s Defencemen.

I)      Forwards;
II)    Restricted free agents, Cap Situation;
III)  Defensemen;
IV)   Goaltending; and
V)     Unrestricted free agents, Cap Situation and the team moving forward.

Winnipeg’s NHL team roster analysis: Part I

It is highly unlikely that anyone has come down from the incredible high that has been the return of NHL hockey to Winnipeg.  Fifteen years ago when the team left the City of Winnipeg for the desert in Phoenix, Arizona, not many people believed a team would ever return.

On that late April day in 1996 my dad told me that the NHL would be back in Winnipeg in ten years.  He said the NHL landscape would change and the cities from which teams had left would get an NHL team back eventually.  Few, if any, held the same sentiment.  While it eventually took five years longer than his prediction, I’ll call his fatherly foresight and optimism the main reason for my same optimism surrounding the team returning.

It is that optimism that should abound when looking forward to Winnipeg’s current roster.  By same optimism I mean a sense of positivism combined with a sense of patience and an awareness of reality.

The team arriving in Winnipeg to open the season this upcoming October is by no means an expansion franchise.  On the contrary, the team has a strong base with which to work, especially on defense.   A young talented netminder and some talented and potential ridden forwards augment the young and talented defensive base.

That will be music to Winnipeg fans’ collective ears for those old enough to remember back to the Jets’ move from the WHA into the NHL and the accompanying ravaging of the team’s roster.  This time around a young base, many of whom have yet to hit their prime years, awaits a ready-to-explode fan base.

Analyzing the construction of this roster requires both a micro and macro review.  Winnipeg can be competitive, much like almost every team in the NHL under a salary cap, but the key is building this team moving forward.

Read more about the Thrashers forwards after the jump by clicking read more.

In some ways, maybe it is best for the team to move a slow rebuild through the first three or so seasons building towards a dominant team after the luster of the return has slightly worn off.  Quick fixes do not work in sports anymore, if in fact they ever did and the people in charge of Winnipeg are keenly aware of that.

Winnipeg has strengths and weaknesses, and while the offensive core has some building blocks, there is much room to grow in all aspects of the roster.

Forwards

Winnipeg has nine forwards signed for next season at a combined cap hit of $15.09 million.  That means that they have an average of $1.68 million allotted per forward.  That is a minimal cap obligation; especially considering that the NY Post reports the cap may exceed $62 million.

Here are the team’s forwards under contract for the 2011/12 season:

The average age of the above players is 23.8 years old.  That is a very young core–especially amongst the potential impact players within the group.  Evander Kane at 19 years old has already played two full NHL seasons.  Alexander Burmistrov was drafted a year after Kane and played an impressive 74 games in his first NHL season.   Remember, these are the players signed for next season.

Here is a quick primer about the above listed group divided into levels:

1. Young, talented and some NHL experience: Kane, Little and Burmistrov.
2. Veteran scorers: Antropov
3. Forward prospects: Klingberg and Cormier
4. Veteran depth forwards: Slater, Thorburn and Stapleton

Part II will examine restricted free agents and their impact on the team’s cap situation.

I’ve seen and heard all sorts of speculation about this topic since Gary Lawless wrote his piece in the Winnipeg Free Press discussing the idea that True North is expected to trigger a season ticket sales campaign in the coming weeks.

Some fans are thinking that they are going to need to ante up between $4,000.00 to $8,000.00 by next week to become a part of the new NHL tradition in the city of Winnipeg.  Others are wondering how they can pay for 3 season’s worth of Season Tickets at once.

Many NHL teams have developed creative means of allowing their fans to pay for Seasons Tickets without needing to empty the bank in one fell swoop.  Using the Detroit Red Wings as an example, they have an agreement with a company called eLayawaySPORTS.

Like traditional layaway, eLayawaySPORTS is a payment processor that allows the Red Wings’ Season Ticket Holders to customize payments for their season tickets over time.  These customized weekly or monthly payments are automatically deducted from customers’ bank accounts on a specific payment dates selected by the consumer.  The technology charges a 1.9% flat transaction fee and zero interest.

While teams might have a policy that requires fans to sign on for more than 1 season at a time, there won’t be a need to break open the piggie banks or cash those RRSP’s just to pay for Season Tickets in one lump sum.

Even the AHL’s Manitoba Moose currently allow you to pay for your seats on a monthly basis.  Richard Tapper of Sports Radio 1290 program ‘On the Sidelines’ told me that he has 2 seats which he’s splitting with 2 other guys for a total cost of $1,800.00.  The Moose split the charges 3 ways ($600.00/per) and charged each guy $100.00 a month for 6 months.

So it’s time that everyone calms down, enjoy some playoff hockey, head to Earls Main for a beer and when TNSE puts out the call, be ready to answer it in whatever capacity that requires.

• Alexander Ovechkin leads the NHL with a 1.48 points per game total.  Sidney Crosby trails the leader sitting in ninth spot with a 1.19 points per game.  Crosby has been coming on as of late, so watch for that gap to close.
• Paul Stastny has the second most total face-offs won in the NHL but actually sits with a below 50% success rate.  Stastny is icing 21:40 minutes per game which places him sixth in the NHL among forwards.
• Thought to be past his prime–which he is–Roman Hamrlik is playing big minutes in Montreal–24:49 minutes per game.  With Andrei Markov slated to comeback soon, expect that total to drop off.
• Not surprisingly, Dustin Brown and Ryan Callahan lead the NHL in total hits tied at 117.  While both players continue to throw their bodies around, the two American forwards have only combined for 14 goals through a total of 67 games (0.194 per game).  Last season, the two forwards totaled 46 goals (24 for Brown, 22 for Callahan) on the campaign.  Regardless, I expect both to be on Team USA in Vancouver.
• Phoenix and Montreal are tied for the least amount of first period goals this season with 17.  Less of a problem for Phoenix, a team that plays very low scoring games.  Want evidence?  The Coyotes have only allowed 19 goals against in the first period this season.  The Habs, on the other hand, have allowed 34.
• Atlanta and Vancouver lead the NHL in third period goals with 43 and 42 respectively.  Vancouver quietly has the third most goals for in the NHL right now.
• Colorado is first in the Northwest Division and last in the NHL in shots on goal per game.  Craig Anderson is a big factor in their success but the team is also shooting quite efficiently (sit 11th in the NHL in goals per game).  Don’t expect that to continue.
• Joe Thornton leads the NHL with 27 road points and his linemate Patrick Marleau is second with 23 road points.  The Sharks are a dominant team and part of that is their ability to win on the road.
• Scott Hartnell leads the NHL in minor penalties with 22.  He has only played 31 games so Hartnell is going to need to severely cut down on those totals.  Hopefully Peter Laviolette can affect those totals.
• With 18 points, 22:00 minutes of ice time per game and a +9 +/- rating makes Tyler Myers is my rookie of the year so far this season.  Note: Myers actually grew up in Texas and was eligible to play for Team USA until he suited up for Team Canada at the Under-18s a couple years back. Once you play for a country in international competition, you are disqualified for playing for another country.  Canadian fans should be happy about that.

With just some loose ends to tie up, Toews and Kane are expected to sign five-year deals worth $6 million annually, according to TSN in Canada.

Defenseman Duncan Keith will sign a 13-year deal, also according to TSN, for less money annually.

Thus the club will keep the potential restricted free agents long term.

Meantime, Tim Sassone of the Daily Herald voiced concern over the team’s ability to fit everyone under the salary cap:

Nobody wants to think about the potential financial problems that lie ahead.

The Hawks already have 12 players signed for next season with a collective cap hit of approximately $42.4 million.

Even if the cap hits for Keith, Toews and Kane were, say, $5 million each, and that’s low, it would put the Hawks over the present NHL salary cap of $56.8 million for 15 players.

The cap might go lower next season, or it could stay the same. There’s little chance it will go higher than $56.8 million.

So, where do the Hawks stand?  I have absolutely no issues with the team’s expected signings of Toews, Kane and Keith.  Kane is their most prolific forward, Duncan Keith is one of the best defenseman in the NHL and Toews will soon become a force in the NHL.

Let’s take a look at the team’s salary commitments for next season (prior to any extension announcements regarding the players above), courtesy of nhlnumbers.com:

Marian Hossa: $7.9 million (cap hit: $5.233 million)

Patrick Sharp: $4.2 million (cap hit: $3.9 million)

Dave Bolland: $3.375 million (cap hit: same)

Kris Versteeg: $3.083 million (cap hit: same)

Dustin Byfuglien: $3.0 million (cap hit: same)

Tomas Kopecky: $1.2 million (cap hit: same)

Troy Bouwer: $1.0 million (cap hit: same)

Brian Campbell: $7.140 million (cap hit: same)

Brent Seabrook: $3.5 million (cap hit: same)

Cam Barker: $3.125 million (cap hit: $3.083 million)

Brent Sopel: $2.0 million (cap hit: $2.33 million)

Cristobal Huet: $5.625 million (cap hit: same)

From this list, Cristobal Huet, Brian Campbell and Brent Sopel are basically untradeable.  Huet has two more years on his deal after this season and, unless the Hawks include prospects/draft picks along with him in a trade, no one will take that deal on.  If that contract looks untradeable, Brian Campbell is on the books for four more seasons.  I don’t even think anyone would take that contract on even with picks/prospects.  As for Sopel, where is his agent?  That man deserves a serious congratulations.  I mean, how did Sopel get this deal in the first place?  Regardless, the Hawks wouldn’t waste a prospect or pick to get rid of him, they’d probably buy him out first or send him to the minors.

That leaves the other nine players listed above.  The contracts to Brent Seabrook and Cam Barker are pretty fair market value.  It is funny to think the Hawks pay Seabrook half of what Campbell makes and you could argue he is two times the defenseman that Campbell is, but I digress.

The player I see most likely to be moved on this list is Kris Versteeg.  Remember, former GM Dale Tallon probably wouldn’t have given him that kind of money if not for the fax machine gaffe that essentially cost him his job.  Versteeg is only 23, so a number of teams would definitely be interested in his services and the Hawks would probably only want draft picks, not salary, in return.

I personally don’t see the Hawks wanting to trade Patrick Sharp, Dave Bolland or Dustin Byfuglien.  You could argue some of these players are paid more than their output, especially Byfuglien, but he is a beast on skates and when he wants–see: last playoffs against Vancouver–he can be a consistent physical and effective force.

Troy Brouwer and his $1.0 million salary doesn’t need to go anywhere, although you wonder why Tomas Kopecky was brought in for $1.2 million when the team knew money would be tight against the cap next summer.  I could see the team moving Kopecky if the right offer came along.

So, at this point you must be wondering, even if the Hawks dealt  say Versteeg and Kopecky and sent down Sopel to the AHL and ate the salary, the team would only be saving $6.283 million.

Well, that would take the team down to a cap hit of $36.117 million ($42.4 million (the cap hit Sassone reports for next season) minus $6.283 million).  Factor in the reported deals for Kane and Toews ($6 million each) and the report that Keith may make $5 million per season–that is $17 million.  This would bring the Hawks’ cap hit to $53.17 million for twelve players (taking into account the theoretical trades plus the reported signings).  There is no exact word on where the cap will be set, but rest assured, the Hawks fans better get used to some serious fillers in the lineup.

That being said, with the talent the team has up front and on the back-end, the Hawks will be arguably the best team in the NHL for years to come.  However, Hawks fans should have two main concerns: 1. With all this money on the roster, do we have a netminder that can take us to the promised land?; 2. What do we do if injuries hit?

As the above situation indicates, Stan Bowman doesn’t exactly have an easy job ahead of him, but I bet any GM would tell you, it is better to start off with a lot of talent and a salary cap problem than no talent and a lot of money to spend.  Hey, just ask Brian Burke.

• Atlanta’s Rich Peverley is sixth in the NHL in points-per-game with 1.33.  Wouldn’t Nashville love a scoring winger right now?
• Ales Kotalik leads the NHL with 13 power play points.  That Oilers power play is sure struggling pretty bad right now…
• Patrick Marleau leads the NHL with 16 road points.  Taking the captaincy away from him only seems to have increased his willingness to become better.
• Matt Carle leads the NHL in +/- with a +15.  Think Chris Pronger has anything to do with that?
• Tomas Kaberle leads all NHL defensemen with 20 points.  But some in Toronto thinks he should be trade bait?
• For all the attention Craig Anderson has been getting, Ryan Miller continues to lead NHL netminders with a .938 save percentage.  That’s the battle, including Tim Thomas,  for U.S. starting netminder.
• On the other hand, Roberto Luongo is 30th in the NHL with a save percentage of .903.  Martin Brodeur is the favorite to start for Canada.
• Marian Gaborik leads NHL forwards in ice-time with 22:15 minutes per contest.  John Tortorella is known for playing his horses a ton–see: Vincent Lecavalier and Martin St. Louis in Tampa.
• Chris Pronger leads NHL defensemen in ice-time with 27:15 minutes per-game.  He’s my Norris winner so far this season.
• Probably not known to many people outside Montreal, Roman Hamrlik is tenth in the NHL in defensemen ice-time with 25:27 per-game.  Injuries have necessitated Hamrlik’s increased workload.
• Vancouver’s Kevin Bieksa leads the NHL in penalty minutes with 61.  He needs to cut down on that total, as he’s one of their horses.
• The Flyers lead the NHL in power play percentage, converting at a 27.9% clip.  Again, that guy Pronger may be pretty impactful.
• The Blackhawks lead the NHL in penalty killing percentage, stopping the opponent 87.1% of the time.  A great defense and some very aware forwards willing to throw around their bodies.
• Nashville has the worst power play in the NHL with a converting percentage of 11.1.  The Predators don’t have enough offensive talent and the talent they do have–Legwand, Erat, etc.–has been missing in action.
• The Leafs have the worst penalty kill in the NHL with an awful 71.6% killing rate.  Wow.  With shot blocking defensemen on the blue line, this team has to be better.  Obviously the poor goaltending is a factor but the forwards need to sacrifice their bodies and the defense needs to step it up.
• Buffalo leads the NHL in shots on goal per-game with 34.3.  A very well balanced team that can come at you from all lines. 
• Surprisingly, the Flames sit at the bottom of the NHL in shots on goal per-game with 25.6.  Odd totals for sure.  I expect this total to rise.
• The Chicago Blackhawks have allowed the least amount of shots on goal per game, allowing only 22.6 against.  Arguably the most talented team in the game–so no surprise here.
• The Panthers are allowing a whopping 35.6 shots against per game.  Vokoun/Clemmensen need help.  The Panthers, in my opinion, need an identity.
• The best five-on-five scoring ratio in the NHL belongs to the Capitals.  Still posting big offensive totals without Ovechkin too.

As found at sportslogos.net

Ok, now that I have your undivided attention, let’s talk some Edmonton Oilers hockey. The Oilers, as you may have noticed, have been ubiquitous in the news this summer over their failed attemts to land Dany Heatley. This PR nightmare has thankfully faded with the dog days of summer and the new coup is the recent signing of former bad boy Mike Comrie.

Add this signing to the moves (Nikolai Khabibulin) and non-moves (Heatley, a third line centre) and you are left with many of the same question marks that plagued the Oilers last season. Namely, is this a playoff team?

I can’t answer this question here (but see below!) and only time will tell what a couple of new faces and a host of new coaches will bring to the former City of Champions. New bench boss Pat Quinn and associates/assistants Tom Renney and Wayne Fleming will certainly bring a new look to the team, and I expect the special teams to show some marked improvement.

Many Oiler players are reporting for camp in much better shape and ready to compete for jobs, which is a good thing because I doubt Quinn and Co. will stand pat (pardon the pun) for very long if they don’t like what they see on the ice. So, without further ado, lets take a look at what the Oildrop has to work with this season:

Forwards:

Courtesy of dasgamer.com

The forward corps for the Edmonton Oilers is crowded to say the least. With a legion of players either cemented into roles or ready to compete for ice time, something will have to give sooner rather than later. Yesterday’s signing of Mike Comrie (pictured below , with Hilary Duff for scale) further complicates matters.

Adding to the mess is the fact that several of the players (Dustin Penner, Rob Schremp, Robert Nilsson) have come to camp in much better shape and seem reluctant to give up their spots (or in Schremp’s case, his chance at a spot). Even with the departures of Kyle Brodziak (traded to Minnesota) and Ales Kotalik (signed with the NY Rangers), the Oilers simply do not have enough spots for everyone.

Further complicating matters is that in addition to the over-abundance of players, they have several guys who have basically the same skill set. Smallish forwards Sam Gagner, Andrew Cogliano, Mike Comrie, Robert Nilsson, Rob Schremp, Jordan Eberle, Gilbert Brule, and Patrick O’Sullivan are all under 6 feet and essentially fill the same role. None of them are really suited to a 3rd or even a 4th line role, so someone (ideally a couple of them) have to go. Granted, Schremp and Eberle are in tough to make the team, while Brule could be sent packing to Springfield.

Even with these three players potentially out of the picture, you are still left with 5 guys and 6 spots. The problem is that Shawn Horcoff, Ales Hemsky and Dustin Penner are all likely at least penciled into 3 of those 6 spots, leaving another 2 guys left out in the cold (or the press box/4th line). Word is that Comrie will get a look as the first line left winger, and Cogliano will get one last shot to prove he is a centre.

Stopping to evaluate what we have here, it would seem likely that Horcoff retains his spot as the 1st line centre (unless Quinn sees him as the shut-down guy) with Hemsky staying at 1st line right wing. That leaves Penner and Comrie to battle for a spot on the left side. If these three our four guys comprise the 1st line (for arguments sake) then that leaves Cogliano, Gagner, Nilsson, O’Sullivan and a host of others for the 2nd line.

Perhaps Quinn will experiment with the Kid Line (Gagner, Cogliano, Nilsson) that had some success two years ago or maybe he blows it up. At this point, its really tough to tell since we have no template to judge what the Mighty Quinn will do. I would expect (at least) that Gagner will be playing centre and Cogliano will get at least a shot at it. If he is successful, watch him to be the pivot on the 3rd unit. If not, he would make an excellent winger with blazing outside speed for any line.

Courtesy of studyofsports.com

Robert Nilsson might be the odd-man out in this situation. His skills are, like I mentioned, replicated elsewhere on the roster. He is smallish, doesn’t hit much or check well and there are several cheaper prospects (and Comrie) who can likely replace his production. So, trade bait, right? Well, wrong actually. Reports indicate that Nilsson has been hitting the gym hard all summer and is in excellent shape (having added 15 pounds of muscle). Plus, trading a guy with a lacklustre resume won’t likely fetch you much at this point. If he shines in the pre-season, don’t be surprised to see him kept around for at least an audition. Failing that, he could also be sent to the minors (owner Darryl Katz said he has no problem putting a big contract in the minors) to await an injury or a slump.

Patrick O’Sullivan is yet another question mark here. He is said to be willing to play centre, and is adept at either wing. Of all the small forwards, he is likely the most defensively responsible, he can kill penalties AND he will actually shoot the puck. I personally think he will be a favorite of Quinn’s and expect he will be a fixture on one of the top two lines.

This situation is, at best, fluid and, at worst, a mess. The good news, dear readers, is that the bottom two lines may be a little easier to figure out. A little easier, but not a lot. As mentioned, there is a slight chance Shawn Horcoff gets slotted in as the 3rd line centre due to his checking skills. He is never going to be a huge point producer, but with good linemates, he can get you 60 points. These totals probably wouldn’t change too much if he skated on a 3rd line with say, Fernando Pisani and Ethan Moreau.

These veteran wingers will definitely see their share of T.O.I with Quinn behind the bench. Both are getting into their mid-thirties now, and injuries are a concern. If they stay healthy, they will counted on to kill penalties and shut down the other teams top lines. If Horcoff keeps the 1st line, Cogliano might get a look here too, if Renney can teach him how to win a faceoff. If not, prospects Marc Pouliot (he is still a prospect to me) or Gilbert Brule might get a chance. Heck, there is even talk at giving Comrie this role. My best guess is that a veteran is either signed during camp or is brought in via trade.

The fourth line could go a couple ways, by my way of thinking. One, Quinn stays true to form and has a couple of knuckle draggers and a babysitter for the rough stuff. This was his M.O. in Toronto (Domi, Belak, Perrott et al) and the Oilers have the personnel to fulfill this role. Zach Stortini certainly likes to fight and is becoming a very useful player in the agitator role. Steve MacIntyre is the epitome of a knuckle-dragger and is a fearsome fighter, but can’t offer much past that. J.F. Jacques is also a big body but really doesn’t use his size effectively and Geoff Paukovich is a dirty mofo who Quinn might like. As for the babysitter portion, the aforementioned Marc Pouliot and Gilbert Brule might find themselves down on the 4th, as might MacTavish favourite Liam Reddox. Colin MacDonald, Ryan Potulny and Ryan Stone are other candidates here.

The second option is go for a high energy unit with some scoring talent. Potulny, Stone, Reddox, Schremp and Jacques could all fit the bill here, as could Brule and Pouliot. The Oilers also signed a 31 year old from the Slovak league named Miroslav Lazo. I don’t have a clue about him, but who knows.

I apologize for the rambling breakdown of the forwards. But, as you can see, there are a plethora of possible combinations and a trade seems inevitable. The only real known knowns (thanks Donald Rumsfeld) are that Hemsky will be counted on to shoulder a lot of the offensive load, Penner should be better under Quinn, the brass hopes Cogliano and Gagner continue to improve and Stortini should get lots of ice and P.I.M.S. Past that, anything could happen between now and the season opener. Your guess is really as good as mine, so let me know in the comments.

Defence:

Courtesy of talk-sports.net

Defencively, the Oilers a little easier to figure out. Led by Sheldon Souray (pictures sans shirt, to the left) and Lubomir Visnovsky, the blueline boys are the strength of this Oilers team.

This group has a reasonably nice balance of actual defence and offensive capability. Souray’s 23 goals were tied for the team lead, and Gilbert and Visnovsky (before he was injured) were steady contributors on both sides of the ledger. Denis Grebeshkov, acquired with little fanfare a couple of seasons ago, has rounded into a solid top 4 guy who can help at both ends of the ice.

Also making great strides was Ladislav Smid, the key return in the Chris Pronger deal. He had a career high in points, and exhibited a real nasty edge to his game, which was a pleasant surprise and a great help to the Oilers. Rounding out the defenders are veterans  Steve Staios and Jason Strudwick, plus the up and coming Theo Peckham.

The key to this season for the back-enders is getting a full 82 games (or close to it) from Souray and Visnovsky. Having these contributors around full-time would be a serious boost to the Oilers’ chances of making the playoffs. Visnovsky’s steady presence and Souray’s grit and offensive punch could potentially be the difference makers in what is shaping up to be yet another dog-fight for 8th in the West. The more help the aging Nikolai Khabibulin gets, the better he plays.  Souray is the real key there, as he (along with Smid) is one of the few guys that makes opposing forwards pay for getting near the crease.

Examining the other skaters, the Oilers will need Tom Gilbert to continue his steady improvement, as he (along with Grebeshkov) figures to be a fixture on the 2nd pairing. A smooth skater with offensive upside (he used to be a centre), Gilbert needs to improve his own zone play while adding some scoring (especially from the powerplay). Grebeshkov, is in the same boat. He showed some offensive flash last year and was really cutting down on defensive miscues by the end of last season. Both players are candidates for their respective countries Olympic teams, so I would bet they are solid, especially in the early going.

Rounding out the top 6 are Steve Staios and Ladislav Smid. Staios has lost a step but still has this season and next on an ill-conceived contract. He isn’t likely to go anywhere as he likely wouldn’t fetch much in return (unless a team needs to reach the cap floor) and the Oilers are short on experience past Souray and Visnovsky. He is prone to getting beat wide, but is still serviceable in a limited role, especially in tutoring Smid. The newly crust Czech is finally starting to live up to his advance billing. The left-handed shot is not any kind of offensive threat, but his defence is sound. Somewhat tough to play against, he closes gaps well and looks after his own end while adding some much needed grit. Count on him being a little meaner this year, as he is another Oiler who is apparently buff and ready to go.

The extra skaters here are likely Jason Strudwick (whose place on the roster isn’t guaranteed) and Theo Peckham, who was very good for a bad Springfield team last season. Strudwick is a guy that just plays a solid up and down game, and is reportedly very good in the room. Not flashy, he can also fill in on forward if need be, and with the diminutive group of forwards, that may be necessary. Peckham is another rough and tumble type, who isn’t afraid to drop the gloves and plays an in-your-face style. Taylor Chorney saw a little action at the end of last season, but still figures to start the year in Springfield, as he needs some more maturity. The same goes for Cody Wild, who doesn’t have Chorney’s pedigree, but could conceivably pass him on the depth chart this year.

Courtesy of talk-sports.net

The Oilers could still acquire another veteran d-man (which I think they need) if the forwards are thinned out via trade. Adding one more calming presence (or dumping Staios), would go a long way to solidifying an already decent group. They certainly aren’t in Calgary’s class personnel wise, but they are better than most of the league and should be the bright spot on the 2009-10 edition of the Oilers.

Goaltenders:

Courtesy of Hockey Capital

The goaltending story for the Edmonton Oilers starts and stops with Nikolai Khabibulin. The newly signed goalie will be counted on to hold the fort for the Oilers, as they currently don’t have a battled tested back-up.

In a somewhat surprising move, GM Steve Tambellini signed the aging netminder to a long term for big dollars, after allowing Dwayne Roloson to walk. Though the signing is not terrible, fans and bloggers are understandably concerned about the terms and the injury history of their new goalie.

That being said, Khabilbulin turned in a solid season with the Hawks, and still can still play at a high level. He should, at the very least, provide the Oilers will steady veteran goaltending and will hopefully steal a few games for the Oil. Given the precarious nature of the forwards, they will likely need the help. I would expect Quinn to ride Khabibulin hard if the keeper is playing well, so something in the range of 50 to 60 games is not out of the question.

Jeff Drouin-Deslauriers is the likely backup, and saw some limited action last year. Looking great for stretches and like a confirmed rookie at other times, Deslauriers may be thrust into the spotlight this season if Khabibulin gets hurt. He may be ready for more work, but I bet Quinn eases him into game action very gently. If he is found wanting, I would think that the coaches demand a trade or acquisition of someone a little more veteran.

A little further down the chart we find former first round pick Devan Dubnyk. Tall and lanky, Dubnyk played quite well in Springfield last year considering the team in front of him. Though he hasn’t progressed quite as fast as the Oilers would have liked (they didn’t have their own farm team for two seasons), he has shown improvement every year and might be ready to steal the backup job from Deslauriers. Again, only time and Quinn will tell.

Predictions:

This could really go either way. Using the current group of players as the measuring stick, I would say its a status quo type year for the Oilers as Quinn and Renney try to assess what they are dealing with. I wouldn’t call it a rebuilding year, and they likely won’t contend, so I guess you just chalk it up to an 82 game audition. Another year lost in the wilderness for Oiler fans.

To get a little more technical, I would put the ceiling for this team somewhere in the 5th or 6th in the Western conference range. In order to accomplish this, EVERYTHING will have to go right for the blue and orange. Wayne Fleming will have to breath life into a moribund power-play, Horcoff will need 70 points, Hemsky will need to crack 90, Cogliano needs 20 goals plus, and Gagner needs to flirt with 60 points. The defence will need to chip at least 60 goals and Khabibulin will have to have flashbacks to the wild nights at Rae and Jerry’s. Vancouver or Calgary will have to falter, and the Oilers will need to discover what 2 points looks like in St. Paul, MN (and in Dallas).

Should the worst happen, the floor for this team could be ugly. While they won’t be last in the West, I could see a 12th to 13th finish. A lack of direction for the forwards, a spate of injuries and wet behind the ears goalie tandem and you will have anarchy on Whyte Avenue as the Oilers bloggers tear that mother down. The calculators and stats text books will be smoking and a new series of downcast and depressed blogs will be born. We are basically talking Armageddon in North Alberta.

Here is Part II of our coverage of the hockey card industry.  Today’s article looks at counterfeiting and how it has changed the hobby.  Jeremy Lee, a 30 year hobby veteran from Winnipeg who currently resides in Calgary returns to discuss the problem of counterfeiting within the industry. 

1. Tell us about the latest counterfeiting problem in the industry. Maybe first off, how did it come about?

Counterfeiting has been a problem in the hobby for several years now. In the mid-late 80′s, the Gretzky O-Pee-Chee rookie card led the way as rookie cards began to establish themselves as the drivers of the hobby and counterfeit copies began to surface at card shows and in hobby stores. Several other key rookie cards were also counterfeited as the years went by. It was actually this problem that gave rise to Upper Deck in 1989. Upper Deck had come up with the idea of putting a small hologram on sports cards to thwart counterfeiters. And it worked. There has not been a single documented case of a counterfeited Upper Deck card. However, their product has not remained immune to card criminals. In around 1996, Upper Deck released the first jersey card; they embedding a swatch from a jersey into actual cards. This represented the first time in the hobby that copies of the same card could have a different appearance as there were differences in the colors and patterns of the embedded swatches. Collectors, as is their nature, began to attribute higher values to cards that contained swatches that were unique and contained more colors. For example a one-color swatch card would sell for less than the same card whose swatch contained two (or more) colors. Unscrupulous people who were involved in the hobby then realized that if they could acquire a one-color swatch card and augment it by replacing the fabric swatch with one that was more attractive, that they could make some quick and dirty money. This practice became rampant when jersey cards evolved to swatch cards a few years later. This problem has propagated to become an epidemic within the hobby and has caused many people to stop collecting for fear that they could acquire fake patch cards. 

2. I would imagine that the internet has been both a boon and a detriment to this controversy. How has it been both helpful and detrimental?

You are right; it has been both a boon and a detriment.  It has been a boon as it allows collectors to openly communicate and share information. And it has been a detriment because it allows the unscrupulous to anonymously dispose of their doctored patch cards with little chance of being caught.

3. How big of an issue is this considered to be by collectors?

Huge. Again, several people have quit collecting because of this issue. That causes long-term damage to the hobby. Some people don’t care because they don’t collect patch cards. But considering that all high-end rookie cards contain patches, and that rookie cards drive the hobby, this should be a major concern for the long-term health of the hobby. In my opinion, it all comes down to the integrity of our collections. Even though a card may be genuine, in five or ten years if I want to sell a high-end card, with a beautiful patch, and it comes from the “Fake-Patch Era”, the perception that it may be fake will considerably decrease its market value and the ability to sell it.

4. In what capacity have you become involved in this?

I have been battling fake patch cards for three years now. I started by “collecting” card images from eBay and various online forums. I created an archive and made it public so others could see the various swatches that existed. One day, as I saved an image from eBay, I realized that I already had a saved image of this particular card. However, the swatch had changed. The serial number was the same and the autograph was an exact match, so I knew I had discovered a fake patch card. I started a thread on hobbyinsider.net to alert fellow collectors. Then, in late 2007 I created a website where people could send in fake patch reports that would form a database of all the known fake patches in the hobby. Within one month there were over 120 confirmed reports. Unfortunately this became overwhelming (I have a full-time job) and I had to abandon the site. 

5. How can this situation best be remedied?

There have been several ideas put forth of how to fix this problem. For example, using gorilla glue to bond the fabric to the cardboard, inserting ink blots that will destroy the card if tampered or placing a stitch through the card and patch. But the hobby generally accepts that the card criminals could find ways to overcome these obstacles. The best way to remedy this is for the card manufacturers to maintain a database of images of the cards. This way, prior to acquiring a patch card, a collector can refer to the database to ensure they are acquiring a legitimate card.

6. What is the biggest impediment to preventing counterfeiting?

Resources and technology. Considering the current economic environment, it is difficult for card companies to allocate resources to this issue. In addition, the criminal mind is often the most creative and they can figure out ways to beat the system.

7. Have the hockey card providers like Upper Deck stepped up to the plate? What have they done?

To date, not much. However, I recently challenged Upper Deck in a public forum. I said that if they didn’t want to or could not capture images of their patch cards, that I would do it on my own time and dime. They took me up on my offer and invited me to their packaging facility in North Carolina to photograph the patch cards from the upcoming release of their pre-eminent brand – The Cup. This is a huge step in the right direction towards protecting the integrity of these important cards. In five days, I was able to capture images of 27,800 cards.

8. What are the bright spots for hockey card trading going forward?

The brightest spot is really the ability to forge new friendships with people who share the passion for card collecting. Every collector approaches the hobby differently. Being able to share these approaches and the collections that result is a great benefit. There are several online communities where collectors share their collections.

As for the cards themselves, they are simply gorgeous now compared to the past. I am not saying that vintage cards are ugly (although some are), rather, sports cards have evolved such that they do bring you closer to the players we watch play. When a card contains a piece of game-used jersey and an autograph, you know that the player wore than jersey on the ice and touched the card with his own hands – that is very cool!

As a group, collectors are always speculating about what the next innovation will be. As well, we look forward to the next year’s rookie crop. In 2005-06, we saw the best rookie crop of all time with the likes of Crosby, Ovechkin, Getzlaf, Richards, Phaneuf, Perry, Carter, Vanek, Parise etc. Once the 2009-10 NHL season starts, we will get to see the first rookie cards of John Tavares, Victor Hedman and several other players that are highly anticipated.

Counterfeiting Trivia:

Jeremy provided me with these two screenshots.  Can you determine which is the fake?

I’d like to take this opportunity to thank Jeremy for answering all our questions.  I look forward to seeing the fruits of his labours from Upper Deck’s facility in North Carolina.  If you missed Part I of this series about hockey cards, be sure to check it out.

Do you want to become an NHL top scorer? 

Well to enter this ride you need to be a very specific height.  It seems that a by-product of the 90′s was the concept that you needed to be a giant to be drafted in the NHL.  Guys who were less than 6’0″ were generally disregarded as mere boys amongst men.  But is that the case?  What about those little guys?  Can’t they be big time NHL producers?  Well it appears that to make it as a top points getter, it would be best to be a certain height.

Over the past ten NHL seasons the height of the top point producers ranges from a low of 5’6″ to a high of 6’5″.  The tallest guy to make the cut, standing at 6’5″, was Mats Sundin who back in 2002 finished 4th overall in league scoring.  It would appear that if you are taller than 6’5″ your best bet is to go play in the NBA or try defence as it is unlikely that you will be a top ten finisher in the NHL.  Similarly for those players under 5’6″ things aren’t looking too good.  The last time someone at this height finished in the top ten was back in 1999.  Of course it was the diminutive Theo Fleury who finished 8th overall that year.  Although even when you’re little, you can still get under the skin of the bigger guys.

But at which heights have guys consistently been able to secure a spot in the top ten of NHL scoring?  Well much like on Family Feud, I surveyed the last 100 top ten finishers over the past ten season and here are the results:

So interestingly the height that has seen the most top producers has been 5’11″.  If you take a look at the top three, it breaks down as follows:

#1 – 5’11″
#2 – 6’3″
#3 – 6’0″/6’1″

However how many of these are the same player?  For example if you are 6’2″ in height, you might be thinking, well there’s been at least 3 guys (a whopping 3%) who have finished in the top ten so it isn’t too bad.  But unfortunately they were all the same player, one Alex Ovechkin.  So for some reason guys in that range just haven’t been able to produce as much as those players one inch below or above them.  Of course if you are 6’2″ you can always look forward to making catchy jingles.

If you further breakdown the top three (technically four since 6’1″ & 6’0″ were tied with fifteen apiece) they break down as follows:

Upon further breaking down these numbers, if you attribute a score for where each guy finished (1st overall = 10 points, 5th overall = 5 points and 10th overall = 0 points), the guys at 6’3″ finished pretty well (considering they had 3 less players than 5″11″).

So does this mean if you aren’t one of the heights listed above you are destined to dwell in the cellar, never to be an elite NHL scorer?  I doubt it.  It is just encouraging to see that even guys who aren’t giants can still thrive in today’s NHL.

That is unless your 5’9″ or below.  Or 6’5″ or above.  Then you might have to accept your inadequacies.

I bet that most hockey fans at one point or another were also hockey card enthusiasts.  I still lament the loss of the box of early 80′s hockey cards that my mom claims she never misplaced.  I remember the excitement I felt when I bought a pack of Canadian Score cards and pulled an Eric Lindros rookie.  And I remember the aggravation I felt when I realized I had been ripped off for the first time. (bought a fake Bobby Orr card).

This is the first in a two part series on hockey cards and the hockey card industry.  We are lucky to be joined by Jeremy Lee, a 30 year hobby veteran from Winnipeg who currently resides in Calgary and is at the forefront of a movement to ensure that the integrity of the industry is maintained.  The main focus of his collection is on rookie cards; 95% of which are hockey and the rest from the other three major sports.

Q & A with Jeremy:

1. How did you get involved in hockey card trading? 

Back in 1979 I was visiting my older cousin in Winnipeg. He was nine years old and had a pile of hockey cards in his room. I thought they were so cool since I had been going to WHA games with my dad in those years and there was a card of Bobby Hull in his Winnipeg Jets uniform. This was from the 1979-80 OPC set also known as the Gretzky Rookie set. Needless to say, I was hooked.

2. Are my hockey cards that I collected in the mid 80′s/early 90′s worth anything? I am pretty sure I have a sealed box of 1991 Upper Deck High Series somewhere.

In one word, no. However, I will qualify that by saying that if you have certain cards from the mid – late 80′s like a Lemieux, Roy or Brett Hull rookie card that is in Gem Mint condition, then you do have something that could be very valuable. The problem with cards of the 80′s was that even out of the pack, they were rarely in mint condition because the cutting blades that O-Pee-Chee used would get dull and there would be rough cuts along card edges. The other big issue was that the card images were often not centered well on the cards themselves. These flaws greatly reduce a cards value. Lastly, production was very generous in those days and the resulting perception, which is somewhat accurate, is that people who want cards from that era already have them making it harder to realize top dollar for them today. But like I said, if you have a card that would be graded as Gem Mint or Pristine, then you do in fact have a specimen that could realize upwards of $1000.

The early 90′s were altogether different. This was the era of mass production. The hobby was booming and card companies ran the presses 24/7. Cards from this era, aside from a few very limited edition cards, are close to worthless on the secondary market. For example, if you try to sell a rookie card of Teemu Selanne or Niklas Lidstrom on eBay, it likely will not sell for even a penny because people don’t want to pay the shipping costs. While this is unfortunate from an investment perspective, it certainly makes these cards easily accessible for young and novice collectors, which is very important for the hobby. Considering these guys are future Hall of Famers, it is a great way to start building a collection.

3. How would you compare hockey card collecting today to collecting hockey cards 10-15 years ago? I remember in the early 1990′s it seemed like every corner had a hockey card store. Around 1995 it seemed like all but the long established stores disappeared. Was this trend continued with hockey card trading as well?
The hobby has undergone tremendous transformation since the early 90′s. Back then, cards were simple; they had a picture on the front, perhaps another picture on the back along with some stats. Today’s cards often have, in addition to a picture or two, an actual autograph, a swatch from the players jersey and/or a piece of stick/puck/glove etc. Cards today are often serially numbered too so that people know exactly how many copies were produced. Print runs range from around 2000 copies down all the way to one. These “1 of 1′s” can carry huge premiums and are very popular with “player collectors”.

In the early 90′s, people thought they were making shrewd investments in cards only to later realize that their cards were worth so little due to the mass production of the era. This led to disappointment with the hobby and many people left it completely. So, several hobby shops were forced to follow as their customer base dwindled. The mid to late 90′s was a transitional period in the hobby when only the hard-core collectors remained interested and active. But in 1998, Upper Deck introduced limited edition, serially numbered rookie cards for the first time. This new feature attributed inherent value to rookie cards which are the main driver of the hobby. They started with 2000 copies of each rookie card and by 2002-03, this number had fallen to as low as 99 copies, the minimum print run for a card to be recognized as an official rookie card. Innovation led to additional enhancements to rookie cards. In 2001-02, they started adding autographs to the rookie cards and in 2002-03 they added patches from the logos on player jerseys. This became and has remained the pinnacle of rookie cards – the “serially numbered auto/patch”. 

Another interesting point is that in the early 90′s, Upper Deck along with Topps, Score and Pro-set each issued one set/brand per year with perhaps an update set added on towards the end of the season. But now, Upper Deck (as the exclusive licensee) produces over 20 sets/brands per year. They range from $2 to $400 per pack! As a result, collectors of all levels of income can dabble in low, mid or high-end product.

4. Do you think that change is for the better?

These changes that the hobby has undergone since the early 90′s are simply its natural evolution. Collectors are a fickle bunch and we always want to see innovation; the next big thing. Upper Deck has led the way in terms of innovation. The auto/patch rookie card was the last major overhaul to the rookie card, and the hobby is currently speculating as to what the next step in the evolution will be. There are different views of how good or bad these changes have been. Many people feel that the collecting of cards has disappeared and been replaced by investing and speculating. While there is a degree of truth to this, I argue that there are still many true collectors out there who enjoy building their collections for the sake of collecting. Upper Deck produces sets/brands at various price points to ensure that their customers who are young kids to those who are more advanced collectors, have a product available that interests and excites them. My personal opinion is that the changes have been good.  

5. Where do you go to get your hockey card information? I used to get my prices from the Beckett. Is that still around?

Yes Beckett is still around. The problem with their magazine’s price guide is that the values are often far from indicative of a cards fair market value. With the proliferation of sets issued each year, there is no way they can accurately capture the fair market value of even the most important cards. As well, since so many cards are limited to 25 or fewer copies, Beckett avoids the challenge of pricing them by designating them as “Not priced Due to Scarcity”. Considering that these cards are those that are most desired by collectors, Beckett’s price guide has become close to obsolete. The best source for hockey card information is online. If you want to know the current fair market value of a card, go to eBay and do a completed items search. If you want to see what other collectors are saying, there are several online forums, my favourite being hobbyinsider.net. Most cities also have annual or even monthly card shows. I encourage people to check one out to see what is new, old and everything in between. Upper Deck’s website also provides a multitude of information and checklists of all their brands. 

6. I remember a big trend when I was collecting was to buy a “pack” of hockey cards but keep them sealed. Is this still done? Does this in fact increase the value of the cards? A few years back an Uncle of mine found an unopened pack of 1976 O-Pee-Chee cards. I told him not to open it.  But curiosity got the better of him and he opened it so he could distribute it to his nephew’s. How much would a pack of 1976 cards be worth considering that most people weren’t “saving” packs until the 1980′s?

This is actually an interesting area of the hobby and one that I am personally focused on. An unopened pack of 1976 OPC cards is probably worth around $40 today. But if you open it, you may only get $2 worth of cards, if they are all commons. Value is attributed to vintage unopened packs based on the cards that might be in there. For example, an unopened pack of 1979 O-Pee-Chee cards, that may have a Gretzky rookie card inside worth around $600, commonly sells for $250. But you may only get $2 worth of cards. I collect unopened packs because I like the artwork and they conjure up memories from when I used to go to the corner store and buy handfuls of them and bust them open for trading. A lot of the value attributed to unopened packs is driven by the memories they conjure in people who used to collect them as kids some 30 years prior.

7. Are hockey card conventions still popular?

Not like they were in the early 90′s when you had to shove your way through to see the tables. These days the shows are less crowded but those that do attend are more “collector”, than “trendy”.  Twice a year, there is the Sportcard and Memorabilia Expo in Toronto (www.sportcardexpo.com). This is the mecca for hockey card and memorabilia collectors alike. Its attendance has gone down since the late 90′s but considering the current economic climate, this is natural. I think that once the economy bounces back and people allocate more of their income to their hobbies, we will see the Expo’s and other local shows attendance grow. In Western Canada there are the Bossa Shows (www.bossashows.com) which always seem to feature great autograph signers. I attend most of the major shows across the country mostly because I enjoy being around people who share my passion for hockey cards, and I increase my chances of finding cards that are on my wantlist.

8. What is the best card collecting trade you ever made? What was the worst?

That’s a tough question, since I’ve made so many. What I will tell you is that the best trades are those where both parties ignore the price guide and just make a trade where they both get the cards they want. If two collectors are happy with a trade, who really cares what the price guide says. One of the things that bothers me most is when a collector or a dealer refers to the price guide when asked about a card. Now if the price guide actually reflected fair market value, I wouldn’t mind so much. But it doesn’t. One of the problems in the hobby is that many dealers use the Beckett price guide to price their cards. But everyone knows that cards can be had cheaper on eBay. This is hard for stores who have overhead costs that are significant compared to casual eBay sellers and even more professional eBay stores. The stores need to charge more and eBay savvy collectors are often unwilling to pay the “Beckett” prices. But I will say that the experience of going to the hobby shop and being able to inspect the card instead of just looking at a picture on your monitor is often worth a premium. And some people are simply sceptical of eBay and prefer not to use it. Additionally, cards can get lost in the mail and by buying from a shop, you eliminate that risk and the transit time. However, coming home from work or school to find a bubble mailer or two in your mailbox is a favourite thrill of collectors.

9. What is your most prized card?

It is almost impossible to narrow it down to one so let me give you two, you’ll see why. In 1989, when I was 17 years old I saved up $800 and bought a Bobby Hull rookie card from 1958. This is still my favourite card because I’ve had it for so long and it was the first major acquisition I ever made. A couple years ago I acquired a 1911 Georges Vezina rookie card that is professionally graded as a PSA 5. PSA (Professional Sports Authenticator, www.psacard.com) is the hobby’s most respected and relied upon third party grader and authenticator. A grade of five is referred to as “Excellent”. And considering that this card is from 1911, this is a phenomenal grade. The Vezina rookie is considered by many to be the holy grail of hockey cards so it is my second favourite card behind the Bobby Hull.

10. How has the internet opened up the availability of rare cards? (this question will lead into next week’s article)

The internet and specifically eBay has had a monumental impact on the hobby. and collectors’ ability to locate and acquire all cards, not just rare ones. Before the internet, it could take years to locate a specific card. Nowadays, shortly after a set’s release, most cards are listed on eBay and made available to the whole market. Even vintage cards are easy to find. eBay really has transformed the hobby and is partially responsible for the closing of several hobby shops. While this is unfortunate, it ensures that the strongest shops have survived and hopefully they continue to thrive.

Next Thursday we will focus on the facet of the hobby that Jeremy is playing a major role in; to help create a reliable means of maintaining the integrity of the hobby.

Ok that’s it for the 2009 Illegalcurve Free Agency Liveblog, which came to you live throughout the day from North Dakota, Manitoba and Michigan.  Thanks for tuning in and we will have plenty more analysis and reactions to today’s free agent signings so keep it tuned to illegalcurve.

• 5:52pm: From Michael Russo “Agent Ron Salcer asking today for 10-year, $75 million deal for Gaborik”.
• 5:22pm: Sammy Pahlsson goes to Columbus from Chicago.  Signs for 3 yrs @ $2.65 million per year.
• 5:13pm: 2008/09 winner Bill Masterton winner Steve Sullivan re-signs with Nashville for 2 years at $3.75 million per season.
• 5:09pm: Steve Begin goes from Dallas to Boston.  Signs for 1yr @ $850K.
• 5:04pm: Wayne Gretzky is getting Canada’s highest honour — he’s being made a companion to the Order of Canada.
• 5:03pm: Ted Nolan is taking over as vice president of hockey operations for the Rochester Americans.  I always liked him as a coach.  Glad to see he is getting back into it.
• 4:56pm: Looks like the Leafs have signed Komisarek.  Bob McKenzie reports the deal is 5 years at $4.5 million.
• 4:51pm: Dreger is reporting that Toronto has made a strong pitch for Mike Komisarek.   Bob McKenzie says two other teams are taking a hard run at Komisarek.
• 4:49pm: Darren Dreger with an update on the Kubina trade to Atlanta; Toronto gets Exelby and Colin Stewart, while the Thrashers get the rights to Tim Stapleton.
• 4:48pm: Vernon Fiddler goes from Nashville to Phoenix.  Terms 2 yrs, $2.2 million.
• 4:45pm: Greg Zanon goes from Nashville to Minnesota.  Terms 3 yrs, $5.2 million.
• 4:43pm: Byron Bitz stays in Boston.  Terms not yet disclosed.
• 4:41pm: Mike Cammalleri signed a five-year deal with the Montreal Canadiens, worth $30-million.
• 4:32pm: Sounds like the Leafs have made a trade with the Thrashers.  The deal is apparently Pavel Kubina for Garnet Exelby.
• 4:24pm: Word is that Montreal is putting the finishing touches on a 5 year deal for Cammalleri.
• 4:22pm: A little Blue Jays news;  Ricky Romero pitched eight innings of four-hit ball, as the Toronto Blue Jays snapped the Tampa Bay Rays’ seven-game winning streak
• 4:13pm: TSN reports that San Jose has re-signed Kent Huskins to a 2 yr for $3.4 million and David Koci leaves Tampa for Colorado for 1yr @ $575,000.
• 4:12pm: Watching the Dale Tallon press conference.  He is saying bye bye to Marty Havlat.  Said they made the decision at 11:01.
• 4:10pm: Dave taking over for Kyle (and even though I’m in the East I will continue using CST). 
• 3:58pm: E Online reports that Mike Comrie and Hilary Duff like to fake tan.
• 3:55pm: Did Michael Farber just call Brian Burke fat?
• 3:54pm: A review of some blogs suggest Oiler fans are pissed, Vancouver and Chicago fans are pleased.
• 3:47pm: TSN reports that Ian Laperriere has signed in Philadelphia, while it was the Rangers rather than the Oilers who offered Chris Neil a 4-year deal. Pierre McGuire thinks the Habs fans will quickly grow to hate Hal Gill.
• 3:45pm: The Penguins have signed Mike Rupp, while the Canadiens have signed Hal Gill. A worthy replacement for Komisarek.
• 3:44pm: The live blog was interrupted by a telemarketer, calling on behalf of the ND Police Association (or something). Caller: The ND Police Assoc. would appreciate your help. Kyle- No thanks. Caller: Well, the money goes to find missing kids. Kyle: Don’t look at me, I don’t have them. Caller: Well sir, we also do the Meth is Death campaign, can we count on you for $12? Kyle- No way, take it out of my speeding tickets. Caller: Thanks for your time…
• 3:40pm: McGuire reports that the Panthers have also signed goaltender Jacob Markstrom.
• 3:36pm: Bob McKenzie says that offers are not flooding in for Heatley, so it might be down to the Oilers and Sens for the enigmatic winger. Has the trade request backfired on the Heatley camp?
• 3:35pm: Scott Clemmensen has signed with the Panthers and its believed that the Oilers have offered 4 years to Chris Neil, and the Leafs have offered 3 years.
• 3:29pm: The panel feels that Toronto’s team toughness will keep the fans entertained until Burke can build a winner.
• 3:22pm: Adam Pardy has re-signed with the Flames.
• 3:17pm: TSN reports that the Flames have $21.7 million tied up in 4 defenders.
• 3:11pm: The Khabiboulin deal is done, 4 years for $15 million.
• 3:07pm: Who is the better speaker, Bouwmeester or Sutter?
• 3:05pm: Is this the quietest presser ever?
• 3:05pm: The guys are talking like the Khabiboulin deal is done, and they cut to the Bouwmeester press conference in Calgary. Sutter looks like he just jumped off the tractor to come in to town.
• 3:01pm: McKenzie reports that Nikolai Khabiboulin is close to going to Edmonton.
• 3:00pm: Pierre McGuire says that Jim Rutherford is a gentleman, and the rest of the guys weren’t sure why Cole wouldn’t sign before.
• 2:55pm: Bob McKenzie reports that Erik Cole is close to re-signing a 2-year deal with Carolina.
• 2:51pm: Just heard that Boucher has signed in Philly, and TSN reports that the Oilers have made an offer to Chris Neil (as have the Leafs).
• 2:49pm: Bob McKenzie FINALLY has something. Jaro Spacek has signed with the Montreal Canadiens, as per the Boston Globe. A three year deal worth $11.5 million.
• 2:47pm: In addition to pucks, I have no less than 15 hockey sticks in my basement, including one with a straight blade, signed by Jay Bouwmeester.
• 2:46pm: Colton Orr is interviewed, giving a shout out to Winnipeg.
• 2:38pm: Scott Niedermayer on the line, suggesting the Vancouver never really factored into the equation. He interviews like a consummate professional.
• 2:34pm: Do the recent signings in the Northwest necessitate an overpay by the Oilers for a player? Should they pull the Heatley deal off the table?
• 2:29pm: The inane banter is interesting for a while, but its tough to fill up a show AND be entertaining when nothing much is going down.
• 2:24pm: I only have American beer on Canada Day. Will I be ex-communicated? Is this even allowed? Can I have it blessed by another Canadian? Thoughts?
• 2:23pm: Is using your money to re-sign your core players a better idea than spending money on new guys?
• 2:23pm: Dave Hodge notes that you never hear from the Sharks on free-agent day.
• 2:22pm: The guys are talking about winning by losing, with reference to the large albatross type contracts out there right now.
• 2:17pm: Joel Ward has re-signed in Nashville.
• 2:16pm: Gino and Pierre were wondering how hurt Gaborik really was during his Minnesota days. Will their be a new injury protocol in town?
• 2:11pm- I could really use a butler or assistant. The juice fridge is a loooooooong ways away.
• 2:06pm- Aaron Rome agrees to a deal with the Canucks, and Bob McKenzie says he has nothing.
• 2:05pm- Darren Dreger reports that Scott Niedermayer has agreed to a 1-year, $6 million dollar deal in Anaheim. What about Rob? What about Rob indeed…
• 2:04pm: I don’t hang out in my basement that much (I attend hockey games in real life). I have a ton of pucks. Where the heck did I get them all?
• 2:01pm- Pretty good action so far. Lots of interesting dynamics created with the signings. The TSN pity party for Edmonton continues, as does the speculation.
• 1:57pm: Farhan Lalji reports that with the Sedins signing, the Luongo extension is likely imminent. He says to expect Pyatt, Schneider and Hansen to be moved.
• 1:56pm: Donald Brashear has signed with the New York Rangers, likely a replacement for the departed Colton Orr.
• 1:54pm: Mike Knuble has signed with the Washington Capitals. Pierre loves it. Big body presence!
• 1:53pm: More talk on the shift of power in the North West. As an aside, what are people doing for Canada Day? Anyone sitting in their basement?
• 1:46pm: TSN reports about $47 million committed so far. The panel also wonders if Edmonton will have interest in one of Chicago’s goalies? What about Clemmensen?
• 1:45pm: An update from Edmonton, where Rishaug is reporting on player reaction to Roloson’s departure.
• 1:45pm: Steve Montador has signed with Buffalo on a 2-year deal as TSN comes back from break.
• 1:42pm: Watching, waiting and anticipating right now. Lots of speculation, but a small lull in the action. What does Edmonton do now? Who is running things in Toronto with Brian Burke in Sweden?
• 1:37pm: I like the moves made by Tampa and Florida so far. Solid hockey moves that will improve their clubs, and to reasonable terms as well.
• 1:35pm: Why will the TSN guys not drop the “Edmonton is a poisoned market” meme? Is Edmonton any worse than Calgary or Buffalo?
• 1:32pm: Dwayne Roloson is on TSN, saying that Islanders had offered the two year deal that he wanted.
• 1:31pm: Kyle is back, so I’m tossing the live blog back to him.  In the meantime, Neil put together a little sheet of the pre-free agency cap numbers. You can access them here.
• 1:27pm: McGuire suggests Colby Armstrong would look good in Toronto–he is the player rumored to be going the other way in the Kubina deal. I’d really like that move if I was a Leafs fan.
• 1:24pm: Tomas Kopecky also heads to Chicago, according to Craig Custance.  Waiting on details.
• 1:23pm: Why didn’t Edmonton make a pitch for Craig Anderson?
• 1:22pm: Dwayne Roloson leaves Edmonton and signs on the Island.  It’s two-year deal, $5 million.  Says something about their confidence in DiPietro!!!!!!!! For over the next decade…
• 1:18pm: Completely agree with Pierre McGuire on Saku Koivu.  He’s been disrespected and deserves better.
• 1:12pm: Ty Conklin signs two-year deal, $2.6 million with Blues.
• 1:11pm: The Canucks have made an offer for Scott Niedermayer.
• 1:09pm: Cammalleri apparently coveted by Leafs, Sens and Rangers.
• 1:05pm: Lightning sign Matt Walker to 4-year deal, $6.8 million.  Chicago will easily replace his services on the back-end.
• 1:04pm: Why would Detroit have to answer?  Detroit’s fine.
• 1:01pm: Darren Dreger says Hossa to Chicago for apparently 12 years!?!?!?!?!?!  Is this real? Even for the $5 million cap hit.  Can’t be true can it?
• 12:57pm: Craig Anderson to Avs, confirmed by Dater.  Anaylsis is a little bit below.
• 12:56pm: By the way, we are also twittering the day away.  Add us here.
• 12:55pm: Waiting for details on the Hossa to Chicago deal.  Still nothing out yet…
• 12:49pm: IllegalCurve.com Radio Show note.  Due to the Holiday Wednesday, we are on the air from 9pm-10pm Eastern Time.  So, instead of the usual two hour slot, we are only going an hour tonight.  No worries though, we are going to breakdown all the day’s signings and take your calls.  Read more about IllegalCurve.com Radio here.
• 12:48pm: Hossa to Chicago a done deal?  Apparently so.  Don’t really get this signing but I’m waiting for term and cost.
• 12:46pm: Booth gets $4.25 million average per season. Good deal for both sides.
• 12:45pm: Panthers have reportedly agreed to a six-year deal with David Booth.  I love David Booth’s game.  He’s lightning quick and has great hands.  The Panthers did well to lock him up long-term.  Will get the price posted when we find out.
• 12:42pm: Craig Anderson is apparently close to two-year deal with Colorado.  If true, this is a great move for Colorado.  He’s a big upgrade over their tandem from last season and was one of the more underrated netminders in the NHL last season.  Whether he can shoulder the load, is another story, but we’ll soon see.
• 12:41pm: Pavel Kubina has been traded to Atlanta.  No word on the return but, so long as they didn’t take much money back, the open cap space is a huge plus.
• 12:35pm: Couple rumors. Craig Anderson to Colorado (Adrian Dater) and Pavel Kubina traded (Damien Cox).  We’re waiting to hear word on both.
• 12:29pm: US team gets some face-time now.  This will be a good development year for Team USA, but they just aren’t talented enough, in my opinion, to compete with Canada, Russia and Sweden.
• 12:27pm: Team Canada talk takes over for a while.  Nice change of analyzing actual superstars instead of the Ben Walter trade.
• 12:17pm: Gino Reda smells nice according to Pierre.  On that note, I’ve met Gino before and don’t remember him smelling nice.
• 12:16pm: Pierre finally makes some sense of the six minute analysis of the Colton Orr signing. Save me…
• 12:12pm: TSN says that Colton Orr has signed a 4-year, $4 million deal with the Maple Leafs. Apparently he was coveted around the league, give Orr’s agent props for this one.  A four-year deal for a fighter is nice term.
• 12:07pm: Reminder that the IllegalCurve.com Radio Show is tonight from 8pm-10pm Eastern time.  We are hoping to have Bob McKenzie on the show.
• 12:04pm: Pierre calls for an NHL team back in Winnipeg. My day is now complete. Pierre, I heart you.
• 12:03pm: If you missed it, Radek Dvorak re-signed with Florida for two years, $3.4 million.
• 12:02pm: Richard here. I’m filling in for Kyle for the next 30 mins while he runs an errand.
• 11:52am- Please hold briefly while I run to the office to let the cleaners in.
• 11:51am- Ryan Rishaug notes that the Oilers priority is likely a goalie right now, as Roloson wanted 2 years, one more than the Oilers wanted. He also notes there isn’t much information coming out right now.
• 11:43am- The panel wonders if Heatley is worth it? The bonus weighs heavy here, but the guys note that Heatley is not perceived as a winner.
• 11:40am- Damn commercials. The panel is anticipating a flurry at 1pm EST.
• 11:32am- The panel discusses the Oilers-Senators pending deal. The panel thinks Cogliano is a defensive forward, obviously never having seen him play. They also question Heatley’s conditioning and wondering if he is a good fit in the up temp style Edmonton wants to play.
• 11:25am- John Lu asks if Francois Beauchemin could find his way back to Montreal? Or will they concentrate on a scoring winger first…
• 11:24am- The TSN panel likes the deal, as it gives Hedman an excellent mentor. Offer kudos to Tampa for a smart hockey deal.
• 11:23am- TSN reports that Marian Hossa is closing in on a deal with Chicago, and that Havlat is going out on the market.
• 11:22am- Kevin Allen of USA Today reports that Mattias Ohlund has signed a 7-year deal in Tampa. The average is about $3.75 million per year, according to TSN. Good cap deal for Tampa, and actual NHL defender.
• 11:15am- TSN reports that over the last 3 July 1sts, over a billion dollars has been committed.
• 11:15am- Johnny Oduya re-signs with the Devils.
• 11:15am- Jay Feaster doesn’t think Heatley will like playing for Tortorella.
• 11:13am- Fedotenko will test the free agent market. I think he will garner some attention.
• 11:12am- Ducks have re-signed Troy Bodie. The TSN panel is running down the signings, focusing on the Canadian teams.
• 11:05am- Ryan Rishaug has the report live from Edmonton, where he reports that Heatley isn’t popular in Oiler land either. Reports that Roloson hasn’t signed yet and will test the market.
• 11:04am- Brent Wallace live from Kanata right now. Very awkward…Where is his teleprompter?
• 11:03am- Watching some classic World Junior Hockey now, 2004 Grand Forks edition!
• 11:02am- Thanks for the comments! IC is aware of the time restrictions of Free Agency. I am just very impatient today and was anticipating some trades.
• 11:01am- Blackbird problem solved for now.
• 10:26am- Time to break out the air-soft on the blackbirds at my bird feeder.
• 10:25am- I think the Canucks did very well to re-sign the twins. The term is manageable and the price is right for 82 point scorers. I can imagine this might start the bidding for other players, notably Gaborik and Hossa. I can see one of them going to Montreal and, if the Heatley deal fails, Edmonton will make a push for one of them too.
• 10:20am- Finally some action. TSN is reporting that the Sedins have re-signed in Vancouver. The pair have apparently signed 5 year contracts averaging $6.1 million per season. Pretty decent deals if you ask me. No comment from Brian Burke as of yet.
• 10:00am- Just showered. Still not much news.
• 9:44am- The Sportsnet guys seem to think the Oilers offer is better, but that the Rangers will up the ante.
• 9:30am- Oilers fans back to cheering madly for Glen Sather. Come on Slats, ring those phones!
• 9:29am- The Lowetide blog is saying that the Oilers and Rangers are in a bidding war, with the Sens asking for Marc Staal from the Blueshirts and the Oilers looking to keep pace. This one is starting to smell. Is  (Oilers’ owner) Katz pushing for this?
• 9:27am- McKenzie says that the Habs are still looking for a winger.
• 9:24am- Hossa turns down a 10 year deal from Detroit?
• 9:13am- I am a big TSN fan, but this Wimbledon tennis has to go on July 1st
• 9:11am- McKenzie on TSN saying the Heatley deal is just on hold, rather than dead.
• 9:07am- I have more toast now. What is an appropriate amount to drink on Canada Day if you are ex-pat? Can I pick my wife up from work on a bus?
• 8:55am- Are the Rangers walking on Betts and Sjostrom? Sounds like it according to XM. Betts may be on his way to Edmonton to reunite with Tom Renney.
• 8:45am- Saw Transformers last night. I thought it was terrible, even with the slow motion scenes of Megan Fox’s cans running. Has anyone ever seen a motorcycle mechanic pose like that? I think I saw her ovary.
• 8:44am- Still nothing on TSN, have changed channels to the Score. Not much there either.
• 8:35am- Steve Zippay of Newsday feels that Zherdev, Rosival and prospect is a better offer than Penner, Cogliano and Smid. I guess he doesn’t get out of the Eastern time zone.
• 8:34am- Listened to XM Home Ice on the way to and from downtown. Lots of discussion on the Rangers-Habs trade.
• 8:01am- Enjoy this brief interlude as I drive my wife to work.
• 8:00am- Is July 1st going to be over by June 30th? My impatience grows.
• 7:59am- Oilers fans wavering between elated and apoplectic over at the Lowetide blog. 571 comments and its not even a game day.
• 7:57am- Ok. Seriously, I am totally ready to go here. Someone sign something. (I know its too early, I am just complaining)
• 7:55am- Ok, am ready for action anytime. Coffee and toast are both made. I am sort of dressed (sorry ladies) and the cat is cowering in fear.
• 7:41am- Anyone watching the football games tonight? Why not listen to the IC radio show? Big time guest tonight!
• 7:40am- Woke up to find that the Dany Heatley has not waived his NTC. My God actually listens…

First off, the City of Montreal was a tremendous choice by the NHL.  Regardless of the team’s centennial hockey season, the city is hockey, hockey, hockey all the time.  The streets were packed with people excited about the game of hockey near the end of June, so it made for an exciting weekend.

One thing that stood out to me was the amount of hockey people who came into town for the Entry Draft.  People from the CHL, USHL, AHL, NHL, NCAA were all there in attendance.  Some seemed to be there for a specific draft-related reason, others just seemed to be there for the camaraderie.  Either way, you were hard-pressed to walk within three blocks of the Bell Centre and not see somebody involved in the game roaming around the streets of Montreal.

Speaking of the streets of Montreal, there probably aren’t many better streets to roam in North America.  Distractions abound, so good thing Eugene Robinson wasn’t in attendance–as Kyle and I were offered to see a Lesbian Show about seven times by the same guy on Rue St. Catherine.  But I digress.

Maybe the most interesting part of the draft experience was watching the draft floor.  When you watch the Entry Draft on television (which I had always done prior to this year), you don’t get the full extent of the team discussions and the dynamics on the floor at all times.  When you are in attendance, you can see teams attempting to negotiate trades, teams laboring over which player to draft and teams sitting laid back waiting until they can hit Rue Crescent.

Considering the lack of action, in terms of trades, for most of the year, it was exciting to see teams attempting to consummate multiple deals on the draft floor.  Unfortunately, aside from the Chris Pronger deal on Friday and the Jay Bouwmeester trade on Saturday, a lot less trade activity took place than anticipated.

That said, it does not mean that draft weekend was not without its highlights.  So, without further ado, here are my highlights from draft weekend:

Funniest moments of the weekend:

1. Gary Bettman announcing the Chris Pronger trade and calling Joffrey Lupul, Jeffrey Lupul.
2. E.J. McGuire skipping over an Islanders pick on the second day and then forgetting the Islanders had a pick in the next round as well. 
3. The Habs fans mercilessly booing the Maple Leafs and Brian Burke, only to see Burke react with a smirk on the jumbotron, which resulted in the entire crowd cracking up.

Most unnecessary part of the weekend:

1. Every team congratulting the Pittsburgh Penguins on winning the Stanley Cup.
2. Every team attempting to send out a French speaking member of their scouting/management team to get a cheer from the crown.
3. The first round taking over four hours.

Most disappointing part of the weekend:

1. The Habs fans immediately hitting the exits after the team made their first round selection.
2. The lack of trades on the draft floor.
3. The waitress at Le Cage (a restaurant in the Bell Centre) trying to charge Kyle and I $16 for soft drinks.

Most impressive part of draft weekend:

1. How loud the Montreal crowd was.  With the stage set up, the Bell Centre could only squeeze in just under 13,000 fans, but boy were they loud.  Even though I have been to the Bell Centre on two other occassions, I was still pleasantly surprised by just how loud the fans were. 
2. How quickly Day 2 went.  Yes, the second day (six rounds) of the Entry Draft took less time to complete than the first day (one round).
3. How quickly the restaurants had food on the table.  I’m telling you, I don’t think I ever waited over 15 minutes for food to come to the table after I ordered it.

Funniest sightings of the weekend:

1. Fans coming up to shake Darryl Sutter’s hand after the Draft was complete and him respectfully shaking their hands with less interest than I’ve ever seen.  It was hilarious.  That guy has one thing on his mind, and that’s the Flames.  I’m pretty sure he wouldn’t even remember meeting those people.
2. Seeing Len Barrie carrying an Avalanche bag in the corridor before remembering that his son was drafted by Colorado.  For a second there, I thought Oren Koules had traded his right to Denver for another season of Two and a Half Men.
3. Georges Laraque negotiating a business deal and arguing with the guy about the cost of shipping.

What stood out most after seeing them in person:

1. How tall Victor Hedman really is.  When that guy fills out, he is going to be (with an apology to Pierre McGuire) an absolute monster.
2. How short Ryan Ellis is.  I don’t doubt his skill for a second; in fact, I thought Nashville made a great selection at 11, but boy is he small.
3. How young Ulf Samuelsson looks.  I am pretty sure he looks younger than his kid.  No, I’m serious.  He looks like he is 25 years old.

In summation, the NHL Entry Draft was a great experience that I recommend every NHL hockey fan attend at one point or another.  While I’m not sure if other cities are capable of replicating the job done by the City of Montreal, just the action that surrounds the NHL Entry Draft makes it a worthwhile experience.

A few interesting things to note about the predictions:

1) The New York Rangers might as well not bother to show up. Eight predictors, eight Washington victories predicted.

2) The goaltending disparity between Chris Osgood/Ty Conklin and Steve Mason is weighing heavily on the minds of the predictors.

3) Anaheim is a team to be feared and avoided? Not according to the IC team who feel, by a seven to one margin, that the Sharks will get by their in-state cousins.

4) Four series are to close to call (Car-NJ, Pitt-Phil, CBJ-Det, and Cgy-Chi). Despite this, the only team to receive two votes for Cup champion are the New Jersey Devils, who four predictors believe won’t even get out of the first round.

5) Along the same lines of the Devils winning the cup, Zach Parise receives two votes for Conn Smythe.

6) We invite all of our Illegal Curve readers to submit their own predictions. I would be pleased to add it to the chart below upon receiving them. If we get enough entries, perhaps we will even offer a touque as a prize once I figure out some sort of convoluted scoring method. Please send your predictions to drew@illegalcurve.com . If you don’t want to be subjected to ridicule over bad predictions, but still wish to comment on our predictions (cowards!), please comment below.

Can you feel that boulder on your shoulders, Vancouver Canucks players? Those are the expectations’ of the city of Vancouver and province of British Columbia, as by capturing the number 3 seed, you are now expected to have a lengthy playoff run. Contrast that with the St. Louis Blues, who have no expectations, as they were expected to contend for the John Tavares sweepstakes at the beginning of the season.

Let’s break this series down:

Goaltending:

The Canucks are led by arguably the best goaltender in the NHL, Roberto Luongo. With Luongo having suffered a mid-season injury, he is now more rested than he normally is entering this part of the season. His 54 games played are his fewest since the 2003-04 season, but his wins (33), save percentage (.920) and goals against average (2.34) are prototypical Luongo

The Blues counter Luongo’s experience with “un-tested in the playoffs”, Chris Mason. Since starting the season 3-13-1, he has gone 17-6-3 and been one of the best goalies in the 2^nd half of the season. He has a comparable save percentage to Luongo (.916) and a goals against average of (2.41).

Edge: Vancouver

Defense:

As if having one of the best goaltenders of his era in nets wasn’t enough, the Canucks boast a defensive corps with impressive depth. Led by Kevin Bieksa and Alexander Edler, the Canucks had 5 defenseman with at least 20 points. Lest you be concerned with Edler and Bieksa’s youth, veterans Sami Salo and Mattias Ohlund should off-set whatever nerves the young players may have.

If the defenseman that the St. Louis Blues anticipated opening the season with, were actually available, than they might be able to compare positively with the Canucks. Unfortunately, the Blues troubles on the back-end began with Erik Johnson tearing up his knee in the off-season, and were only compounded with Eric Brewer’s season ending injury. Since then, the Blues patchwork defense led by Barret Jackman, and Carlo Colaiacovo, have done a yeoman’s job. While not flashy, and not especially offensive minded, they pride themselves on making a strong first pass, and defensive responsibility

Edge: Vancouver

Forwards:

Much like their counterparts on the back-end, the Canucks forward corps are blessed with impressive skill, and impressive depth. They are led by the Swedish twins, Daniel and Henrik Sedin. One of the twins led the Canucks in every major offensive category. To say they are the catalyst of the offense would be an understatement. That’s not to say they are the only weapons on the offensive side, as Alex Burrows scored twenty eight goals on the year, and that was coupled with the career offensive year from Ryan Kesler. Oh yeah, did I mention some other Swedish guy named Mats Sundin?

The St Louis Blues are very youthful up front, as four of their top six forwards are twenty six and under. The team is led by 33 goal scorer, Brad Boyes, and second is twenty four year old David Backes. In addition on the youth front, the Blues got valuable contributions from David Perron and Patrik Berglund, neither of whom have reached the age of twenty one. Much like the Canucks with Sundin, the Blues have reliable veteran Keith Tkachuk who just turned 37, Andy MacDonald who has had a strong second half,  and additionally may be fortunate enough to get injured Paul Kariya back sometime in the first round.

Edge: Even

Coaching/Special Teams/Intangibles:

2006-07 Jack Adams winner Alain Vigneault boasts one of the best all time winning percentages for a Canucks coach. Unfortunately, that has not translated to playoff success for the Vancouver fans, as he is two games below 500 in playoff games with the Canucks. On the special team side, the Canucks can best be described as middling, as they have a success rate similar to my GPA as it falls right smack in the middle of the curve.

Perennially underrated coach Andy Murray, leads the St. Louis Blues into the playoffs. This will be Murray’s first playoff foray since he lead a similarly inexperienced Kings squad into the playoffs, where they gave the heavily favoured Colorado Avalanche a huge scare, losing in seven games. The Blues boast a top ten power play, with a 20.5 percent success rate and a top three penalty killing unit, with a 83.8 percent kill rate.

Edge: St. Louis Blues

Prediction: Canucks in 7. The Canucks, on paper, should win in fewer games. I don’t know if it the weight of the expectations on them, their youth, or their middle-of-the-pack special teams, but the St. Louis Blues are a dangerous team, with nothing to lose, and led by a head-coach who has performed miracles just getting them into this position. Can one more miracle occur? I suspect the Blues will fall just short.

This handy chart first appeared on the site prior to the start of the 2008-09 regular season. With the regular season coming to an end today, and the real season set to begin, we thought it would be a good time to take a nostalgic look back at our early season predictions. I am not going to go through the entire chart, as I have the utmost in confidence that you don’t need my help to do that, but instead I will give out a few awards based on the predictions as well as a couple of bonus “it’s my article, so I can do it” awards.

The award for “Best Reason Why Casinos Don’t go Broke”: Me, for my dual prediction of the Ottawa Senators as Eastern Conference Champions, and Craig Hartsburg as Coach of the Year. Nothing more needs to be said about predictions of that quality.

The award for “Potentially Best Virginal Performance in 2009-10″: Richard, for his selection of someone named Hornqvist as the 2008-09 Calder Trophy winner. Unfortunately for Richard and his prognostication skills, the prediction still may come true, as Mr. Hornqvist didn’t “pop his cherry“, this year.

The award for “Stop Making the Illegal Curve Crew Look Foolish”: The Boston Bruins. The following teams were predicted by IC writers to be the Eastern Conference Champions: Canadiens (two writers),  Flyers (two writers), Rangers (two writers), Senators.

The award for “Boy Aren’t the Illegal Curve Writers Smart”: The San Jose Sharks, with honourable mention to the Detroit Red Wings. Three IC writers had the Sharks to win the West, and three had the Red Wings. Neil feels bad enough about his Stars selection, no need to mention it again.

The award for “Uh, We Meant the Other Guy”: Sidney Crosby. Five out of seven contributors picked Crosby for the Art Ross Trophy. Zero out of seven picked Malkin. Frankly, I blame Crosby for his poor performance, and certainly not the predictors for their choosing of him. Had he played harder, he would have made us all look smart. For shame, Sid, for shame.

The award for “See Sidney, This is What We Needed”: Alexander Ovechkin. Six out of seven contributors selected him as the Rocket Richard trophy winner, and barring something miraculous on the final day of the season, we will all look smart. Except for Joey. I suggest throwing tomatoes at him.

The award for “Depends on If You Consider Surprising, Good or Bad”: Neil, for his selection of the Boston Bruins as the “Most Surprising Team”. Presumably Neil picked them because he thought they were going to be surprisingly good. Regardless, now, the “good surprising” is going to be the flag he is flying.

And two final awards:

The award for:

“Most incomprehensible, Yet Hilarious Smack-down of Yours Truly”:  http://www.birdwatchersanonymous.com/2009/4/9/828689/in-a-low-class-by-themselves

and

“Best 5 minutes 26 seconds on You Tube”: watch?v=olI1fj76WCY

Enjoy the playoffs, and thank you for your continued support of Illegal Curve.

The goal differentials will be listed from best to worst:

1. Boston Bruins +62

2. San Jose Sharks +52

3. Detroit Red Wings +40

4. Chicago Blackhawks +38

5. New Jersey Devils +27

6. Montreal Canadiens +18

7. Washington Capitals +15

8. Philadelphia Flyers +14

9. Calgary Flames +12

10. Minnesota Wild +10

11. Buffalo Sabres +2

12. New York Rangers +2

13. Vancouver Canucks 0

______________________________________________________________

14. Anaheim Ducks -1

15. Pittsburgh Penguins -2

16. Florida Panthers -3

17. Columbus Blue Jackets -4

18. Edmonton Oilers -6

19. Phoenix Coyotes -7

20. Colorado Avalanche -9  

21. Los Angeles Kings -14

22. St. Louis Blues -16

23. Carolina Hurricanes -21

23. Ottawa Senators -21

25. Dallas Stars -22

26. Nashville Predators -23

27. Tampa Bay Lightning -24

28. Atlanta Thrashers -28 

29. Toronto Maple Leafs -32

30. New York Islanders -49

What to take from these numbers: Looking closely at these numbers, we realize that there are certainly a lot of bad teams in the NHL.  Sure the standings are close because of the three-point game, but there are only 12 teams in the entire NHL that have a plus goal differential.  Essentially two-thirds of the league isn’t very good.  So, the NHL we are currently watching has its great teams (teams with a goal differential over +25) like San Jose, Detroit, Boston, New Jersey and Chicago but that is more than offset by its bad teams.

Maybe we are foolishly led to believe that this is the NHL everyone wanted.  A league where everyone has a chance to succeed and the standings are close; however, that seems flawed.  Sure the standings are close, but there is a wide separation between good and bad. 

For example, let’s take a look at the standings from 2003/04 or better known as the pre-lockout year.  In that season, there were 16 teams with plus goal differentials.  Think about it;  that was before the salary cap came into effect.  Now, that we have a salary cap in place, everyone says there is parity.  But in reality, there was arguably more parity before the lockout than there is now.

So, I guess one has to question whether the NHL has parity because of the salary cap or because of the no-tie system.

Insert: I originally forgot to post Calgary.  My bad.  The Flames are now included.

Editor’s note: We had some studio complications, so the first podcast was not taped in a studio.  Starting September 21st, all of our podcasts will be recorded in a studio with proper equipment.

Editor’s note #2: Ezra wants to let readers/listeners know that he realizes Doug Weight is now on the Islanders and his reference to him on the Blues was a brain cramp.  Also, Drew now realizes that veteran unrestricted free agents are free to sign with a team at any point during the season.

Without further ado, click here for the link to Illegal Curve’s first podcast.