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Comparing the 2011/12 Jets to the 2010/11 Thrashers after 41 games

It has been a whirlwind 8 months for NHL hockey fans here in Manitoba.  With the excitement of the NHL returning to Manitoba for the first time in 15+ years and the success of the season ticket drive we actually forgot that this Jets/old Thrashers team was still a young squad in development.  IC made pre-season predictions for both why the Jets would and would not make the post-season this year.

If you will recall the 2010/11 Thrashers were a surprise story of the NHL first half last season as they were competing in the Eastern Conference but faltered down the stretch and finished out of the post season.

But how do the Jets 2.0 compare?  While the December they just had was the best in franchise history was it enough to separate these new Jets from their predecessor Thrashers?

Interestingly the Jets and Thrashers have almost identical records after 41 games.

Teams GP W L OT P GF GA DIFF Home Away
Thrashers (2010-11) 41 20 15 6 46 127 122 +5 11-7-3 9-8-3
Jets (2011-12) 41 20 16 5 45 109 119 -10 14-6-1 6-10-4

 

From game 42 to 61 the Thrashers went 5-11-4 and essentially fell out of the playoff hunt.  So what does this mean?  Are the Jets destined to falter in the same manner that Atlanta did last season?  How do the 2011/12 Jets to the 2010/11 compare to the Thrashers in other areas?

Taking a look at some other statistical categories you can see below that the Jets don’t give up as many shots as they did last season.  While their PP isn’t as effective they do have a better PK than the Thrashers.

Teams S/G SA/G PP% PK%
Thrashers (2010-11) 30.8 34.4 20.9 80.8
Jets (2011-12) 30.2 30.7 18.8 82.6

 

Big Buff was well ahead of this season’s current points co-leaders Blake Wheeler and Evander Kane in terms of points.  Interestingly, according to Bill Tiller from the Atlanta Journal Constitution who wrote an article last year from which I was able to get the Thrashers first 1/2 season stats, both Andrew Ladd and Tobias Enstrom had 31 points at this point last year.

Teams GP G A P +/- SOG
Dustin Byfuglien (2010/11) 41 15 25 40 +6 162
Blake Wheeler (2011/12) 41 8 23 31 +9 93
Evander Kane (2011/12) 40 18 13 31 +8 155

 

How does the Jets #1 tender fare against himself one year later?  He sure has played a lot more hockey this season.  His save percentage, while quite high during his first 25 games last season, cooled off during the 2nd half of the 2010/11 season and finished at .914% in 58 total games.

Goalie Comparison GP W L OT SV% GAA
Ondrej Pavelec (2010/11) 25 13 8 4 .935 2.11
Ondrej Pavelec (2011/12) 34 15 13 5 .909 2.88

 

What does this mean?  While each season is unique and players will say what happened in the past remains in the past, it is interesting to note the improvements and lack thereof from last season to the present.  Will the Jets finish the 2nd half in a similar manner to the Thrashers?  That is entirely within their control but it will be interesting to see how this team plays during the run up to the February 27th trade deadline (23 more games).

What stats, if any, jump out at you?  Let us know your mid-season grades.

Posted by on January 9, 2012.

Tags: , , ,

Categories: Atlanta Thrashers, featured4, Winnipeg Jets

  • http://twitter.com/jimsabo21 Jeremy Sabourin

    It all means nothing.  Too few acknowledge “serendipity” as a large factor in hockey.  Sometimes the puck goes off the post and wide, sometimes the puck goes off the post and in.  The guy shooting the puck gave equal effort both times.  Based on an 82 game season, I would say that any team could have 10 more OR 10 less points than they currently have simply based on luck.  A fluky save by a goalie, a quick whistle, a player missing an open net, a bad call by the referree that leads to a powerplay goal, etc, etc, etc …

    Don’t get me wrong, top teams ARE BETTER than lower teams, but trying to figure out the difference between 5-10 points over the course of an entire season is fools play

  • http://www.facebook.com/dminuk Daniel Minuk

    I would have thought there would have been a greater disparity between last years record and this years given the relevance in the market, passion behind the team and support (both home and away).  However, considering the less-than-optimal start the Jets had this season, and the dedication to Claude Noels’ game plan, my guess (and hope) is that the Jets will end the season ahead of last years total.
    Interesting comparison.
    Good job bra.

  • Anonymous

    The stat I find most surprising is how identical their overall records are/were, however, and a big however, last year they came in the halfway mark feeling good about it, this year, I, and maybe a few others think they could’ve have done about 4-5 games better, 1-0 to Wsh was one that could have gone either way, Cbj game is one I wish they could play over, and the last Tor/Mtl games, they just did not show up, well the 3rd of the Mtl and all 3 in Tor.  I think this team is shaping itself to make some noise in Apr/May, maybe this year but for many years to come.

  • Anonymous

    Does Pavelec’s Stats mean anything ?

  • Anonymous

    The stat that screams the most to me has to be the away record for both teams.  The Jets have got to find a way to win out on the road.  Otherwise we will see a 5-11 record before to long.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_ASOM6DE54ZAKCFVECDGXWMHV4E Hijacker

    I don’t recall that the Thrashers had a lot of injuries in the early part of the 2010-11 season. When injuries struck, most notably Enstrom, it had an immediate (negative) effect on the performance of the team. Under these circumstance, it’s admirable how Winnipeg had performed up to this point. 

  • Mike Florence

    I’m really surprised by the GF/GA compared to last year. The GA is almost the same but last years GF was much higher. Our new Jets have way too many players that are struggling to score. I’d expected/hoped for more offence from Fehr, Wheeler, and Antropov. All three are BIG guys who should be parking themselves in front of the net but everyone seems so reluctant to do that. Also, it’d be nice to have 3 or 4 more from Thorburn, although I know he’s not a scorer. He’s definitely been robbed a few times.

    Probably the biggest difference in stats from this year to last year is Buff’s +/-… -8 this year vs +6 last year. I think that sums up his play pretty well…incosistent.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100002086008002 John Dziadek

    The biggest difference to me is the mindset; both among the paying public as well as management/ownership and the players themselves (I think). 

    Last year, the record was a huge cause for celebration.  This year, it’s OK, but everyone expects more and knows that with a little more effort and a few bounces, there should be 4-6 points more on the board.

    Here’s to a good 2nd half of the season, regardless of what the points end up being.

  • http://twitter.com/TBonnar Timothy Bonnar

    Jets 2012 League Ranks (Per Gm):
    Shots for 14th
    Shots against 14th
    Goals for 15th
    Goals against 12th
    Powerplay 10th
    Peanlty Kill 14th

    Those number come following a slow start and despite a large number on injuries. Advanced stats have Jets hanging around the same range. Numbers have been on an upswing as or late, but I think they show that we are looking at a fringe playoff contender. It will be a dog fight down the stretch.

  • http://twitter.com/TBonnar Timothy Bonnar

    I believe so. 

    Last year Pav was overachieving throughout the first half. He had nowhere to go but down. This season he started slow and his numbers should continue to rise. I expect him to finish with a save percentage close or a little better than his .914 from last season. 

  • http://twitter.com/TBonnar Timothy Bonnar

    Lets hope the second half GF and GA don’t tank like last year.

    In the last 41 games of last season the Thrashers had 91 goals for and 140 goals against.

    Fehr will start to score and the team is finally getting healthy. I can’t see another tank job happening. 

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