Winnipeg Jets RFA Analysis: What is Blake Wheeler worth?

The Boston Bruins made a number of moves this past season, many of which worked out quite well.  Well, the truth is, even if all of the player acquisitions did not reach Peter Chiarelli’s expectations the team won the Stanley Cup so fans have little to complain about. Amongst those (successful) trades was the acquisition of Rich Peverley from the Atlanta Thrashers.  Peverley played a significant role for the Bruins down the stretch, filling in for Nathan Horton on the top line and playing on all lines in a variety of situations.  His flexibility and production contributed directly to the team’s first Stanley Cup win in 39 years.

Peverley’s acquisition (along with Boris Valabik), however, came at the expense of Blake Wheeler and Mark Stuart. Wheeler flourished (albeit over a small sample size) over the remainder of the season in Atlanta.  The overall line of thinking at the time of the trade was that it was a short-term for long-term deal for the Thrashers.  Peverley is older than Wheeler and consequently closer to unrestricted free agency a.k.a. a likely inflated salary and thereby providing less value.

The focus of today’s piece is on Blake Wheeler’s market value as a restricted free agent (RFA) in this marketplace.  During IC’s team analysis, we broached the subject of Wheeler’s free agent value and pegged him at approximately $2.75 million for the upcoming season.

More about Wheeler’s value to the Jets after the jump.

Let’s take a closer look at Wheeler’s statistics and some comparables to delve deeper into this prospective contract negotiation for the Winnipeg franchise.

Wheeler was fairly consistent in his production and use while playing for the Bruins.  The American winger basically played third line minutes, with favorable usage in the offensive zone off of face-offs, and generally played against difficult competition.  Wheleer is a big player who is harnessing his size and beginning to utilize it more than he did early on in his career.  His talent is evident, as he moves well for a player of his size and can shoot the puck (minimum 18 goals each of the above three seasons).

Last season Wheeler made $2.2 million, a contract he obtained through arbitration.  If the Bruins weren’t willing to spend on him to avoid salary arbitration last summer, it is no surprise they dealt him prior to the trade deadline to avoid a similar contract stalemate over the summer.

With Wheeler’s production in mind, and the fact that he is 24 years old with three full NHL seasons under his belt—having played a minimum of 81 games in each season—let’s take a look at some comparable offensive producers in the same range:

We will evaluate each player’s statistics for this past season and then discuss their respective contract situations in an additional chart.

The above player put up similar numbers to Wheeler but each one, aside from Versteeg’s short stay in Philadelphia, were afforded more of an opportunity on the power play and at even strength (aside from Wheeler’s brief stint in Atlanta).

Let’s evaluate each player’s contract situation:

Voracek has completed three NHL seasons; his entry-level contract is now complete and he is entering his first RFA negotiation.

Versteeg’s contact extension, 3 years at $9.25 million was inflated because of a botched qualifying offer problem with the Blackhawks—who had to overpay to retain his rights.

Little re-signed with Atlanta in August of 2010 to a three-year deal worth $7.15 million.

Hornqvist re-signed with Nashville in August of 2010, as well, for a deal of three years at $9.25 total.

Berglund just recently signed a two-year extension at $4.5 million total.

The above contracts average out to approximately $2.65 million per season—taking into account Versteeg’s contract, which was probably inflated by the lack of a valid qualifying offer and Hawks’ fear of losing him for nothing.

Considering Wheeler’s numbers compare favorably to the above players, a contract in the neighborhood of $2.75 million to $3.1 million seems reasonable.

The above contracts were also two to three years in duration.  Modeling St. Louis and the organization’s extension with Patrik Berglund, and considering the Jets’ lack of familiarity with Wheeler as a player, a two-year deal seems reasonable for both parties.

Wheeler is almost certainly not going to garner an offer-sheet so look for the Jets to focus on re-signing Zach Bogosian and Andrew Ladd prior to signing him to a new deal.