Who Do the Real Experts Think Will Win the Stanley Cup: Part II

Posted by Ari in Columns,Frozen Assets on October 23, 2009 — 6 Comments

On August 14th, I looked at how the oddsmakers ranked each team by averaging the odds on each team to win the Stanley Cup from many different sportsbooks.

As Richard’s Puck Prospectus article Cinderella and the Disappointment highlights, some unexpected teams are off to hot starts, while other teams, expected to be among the league’s best, are struggling.

Here is the second version of the rankings.  I’m not naming the tiers, rather I’m categorizing them by the average odds each team is available at.  Have the oddsmakers adjusted to teams’ hot/cold starts?

Tier 1: (5-1)

1. Pittsburgh

After an 8-1-0 start the Penguins have emerged as the clear favorite to win the Stanley Cup.

Tier 2: (7-1 to 10-1)

2. Detroit  3. San Jose  4. Chicago  5. Washington

Slow starts by the Wings and Sharks have dropped them from the top tier.  Chicago is having goaltending issues and Washington is looking like an offensive force.

Tier 3: (11-1 to 20-1)

6. Boston  7. Philadelphia  8. Calgary  9. Vancouver 10. New York Rangers

Boston moves down after a slow, injury-plagued start to the season. Philadelphia and Calgary remain in this group after a solid start to the season. Vancouver drops in odds but stays in this tier following a slow start, and the New York Rangers move up from the  following an excellent beginning to the sesaon.

Tier 4: (21-1 to 30-1)

11. Anaheim 12. New Jersey

Anaheim drops out of the “contenders” group after a slow start.  New Jersey has not been getting respect from oddsmakers the last few years, and are available at an average odds of 29-1 despite a respectable (5-3-0) start to the season.

Tier 5: (31-1 to 50-1)

13. Carolina  14. Ottawa  15. St. Louis  16. Columbus  17. Buffalo 18. Montreal 19. Los Angeles  20. Edmonton  21. Dallas

Other than the slow-starting ‘Canes and Habs and fashionable pre-season darkhorse pick St.Louis, this group is made up of teams that are over-achieving through the first 1/8 of the season.

Tier 6: (50-1 to 80-1)

22. Tampa Bay  23. Colorado  24. Minnesota  25. Nashville 26. Florida 27. Toronto

In this tier we can see how oddsmakers have not adjusted to many teams’ hot/cold starts.  Toronto and the Islanders are by far the two worst teams in the league right now and Toronto’s struggles are not reflected in the odds.  Colorado, on the other hand, has been playing well and is offered at 100-1 at one site to win the Stanley Cup.

Tier 7: (81-1 to 100-1)

28. Atlanta Thrashers 29. Phoenix Coyotes

It is early, but both of these teams are playing well and are above .500.  Oddsmakers have not yet adjusted prices for these two teams.

Tier New York Islanders: (150-1)

30. New York Islanders

Though they have their own tier, they have been considerably better than the Maple Leafs this year.

  • http://www.tipsforhockey.com Eric L.

    I’m a little surprised to see Vancouver at 9. They’ve had a slow start but it’s been because of injuries and an underperforming goalie. I think they’ll turn it around and be in the hunt for the cup.

  • http://www.illegalcurve.com Ari

    I think it’s appropriate given Vancouver’s slow start. Boston will drop, Colorado, Phoenix and Atlanta should move up.

  • Bob Roberts

    Illegal Curve 2009/10 Predictions
    by david ~ October 1st, 2009. Filed under: Columns, Illegal Curve News, Season Previews.

    Responses to Illegal Curve 2009/10 Predictions

    Bob Roberts
    October 4th, 2009 at 1:04 pm
    Penguins vs Hawks, the all-bird Cup.

    Pens in 6.

    OK, so given that I said already that Pittsburgh (the only Tier 1)and Chicago (Tier 2) would meet in the Cup with the Penguins winning in 6 games (see above). am I a real expert?

    Or do I have to wait until it happens?

  • http://illegalcurve.com Ari

    I think that matchup is now about 18/1 (down from 21-1). Wait a few more weeks before you put a second mortgage on the house to get gambling money.

  • Bob Roberts

    No worries on that score. But it is nice to know that the experts have woken up to the Pens. I’ll stick by my prediction…

  • http://www.facebook.com/LT.HIGHTIMES Steven Jeffrey Ross

    the article above SHOULD BE TAGGED 2009