Biggest Improvements and Disappointments? Ask the Oddsmakers

Posted by Ari in Columns,Frozen Assets on October 9, 2009 — 1 Comment

Which teams have improved from last October? Which teams have declined? Sure, Philadelphia added Chris Pronger, Calgary added Jay Bouwmeester and the Rangers added Marian Gaborik, but how have those teams’ chances to win the cup really improved. Comparing odds on each team to win the Stanley Cup from October 30th of last year to the odds today, on October 9, we can see how perceptions of the 30 teams have changed.

This week I will look at the five teams that have improved and declined the most according to oddsmakers.

Improved

Will the B's keep winning?

Will the B's keep winning?

Boston Bruins

Oct 2009 Odds: +1200

Oct 2008 Odds: +4900

Change: +285%

Boston was last year’s surprise team and congratulations (sort of) if you had them at +4900 to win the Cup. This year oddsmakers estimate the Bruins as having a 7.7% chance to win the Cup, up from 2.0% at this time last year. The Bruins are off to a slow start, but it is way to early to worry.

Chicago Blackhawks

Oct 2009 Odds: +1100

Oct 2008 Odds: +3300

Change: +183%

Last year the Blackhawks were a trendy pick as an up and coming team. They delivered, going all the way to the Conference semi-finals. This year oddsmakers give Chicago an 8.3% chance to win the Cup, up from 2.9% last year.

Columbus Blue Jackets

Oct 2009 Odds: +5400

Oct 2008 Odds: +15000

Change: +175%

Behind rookie goaltender Steve Mason, the Jackets came out of nowhere to earn their first trip to the playoffs. Though they are still longshots, they are now at 1.8% to win the Cup, up from last October’s prediction of .66%.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Oct 2009 Odds: +7500

Oct 2008 Odds: +15000

Change: +99%

No explanation for this one. Not like the Leafs have improved. This will correct itself soon enough. Toronto is being given a 1.3% chance to win the Cup this year, up from .66% last season.

Vancouver Canucks

Oct 2009 Odds: +2000

Oct 2008 Odds: +4000

Change: +95%

Vancouver surprised many last year with their offensive skills and advanced all the way to the second round of the playoffs. Oddsmakers have now given them a 4.8%, up from 2.43% last year.

Declined

Montreal Canadiens

Will Carey Price's Habs bounce back?

Will Carey Price's Habs bounce back?

Oct 2009 Odds: +5000

Oct 2008 Odds: +1000

Change: -364%

Montreal was the darling of the 2007-2008 NHL season. Expectations were nowhere close to being met last season as the Habs limped into the playoffs. They were given a 9.1% chance to win it all last year – that probability has dropped to 2.0% this season

Colorado Avalanche

Oct 2009 Odds: +12500

Oct 2008 Odds: +4400

Change: -180%

Oddsmakers predicted the Avs to be respectable last year, and gave them a 2.2% chance to win the Cup. They were bit by injuries and their lack of goaltending was exposed. This year they are projected to finish near the bottom of the Western Conference and are being given a .79% chance to win the Cup.

Minnesota Wild

Oct 2009 Odds: +6600

Oct 2008 Odds: +2700

Change: -139%

The low odds on Minnesota reflect their hot start last year. The Wild are expected to compete for one of the bottom playoff spots in the West this year. This year, oddsmakers estimate the Wild as having a 1.5% to win the Cup, down from 3.6% last year.

Dallas Stars

Oct 2009 Odds: +5900

Oct 2008 Odds: +2500

Change: -131%

The Stars were a major disappointment last year. They started slow, made a run during the middle of the season, and limped toward the finish line. Not much is expected from Dallas this year, and they have dropped from having a 3.8% chance to win the Cup to only a 1.7% chance this year.

New York Rangers

Oct 2009 Odds: +3500

Oct 2008 Odds: +1500

Change: -125%

The Rangers started the 2008-2009 campaign with high expectations. They had a disappointing season but got it together in time to scare the Capitals. This year, expectations are tempered and probably accurate. The Rangers were given a 6.3% to win
the Stanley Cup last year, much higher than their current probability of 2.8% they are being given now.

  • http://www.illegalcurve.com Ari

    This from reader “Alfie”:

    my explanation for leafs odds:

    good preseason, talking heads saying they were improved, irrational love for burke/wilson, “the monster”, kessel trade.