Who Will (Probably) Win the Stanley Cup?

Posted by Ari in Frozen Assets on May 9, 2009 — 2 Comments

No hunches or homer opinions here – just straight up numbers.

If you are not aware, the odds on each team to win an event corresponds to a % chance of them winning that event. For example, in a world with no vig, a team that is +100 (2.00 in European odds) has a 50% chance of winning the event.

Here are the odds and chances of each team winning their series and winning the Stanley Cup (as of Saturday afternoon). Series odds are taken from Pinnacle, and Stanley Cup odds are taken from Betfair. Odds are slightly modified so they add up to 100%.

Obviously Detroit is the favorite to win the Cup. Carolina is the favorite to represent the Eastern Conference, but that is due to their 3-1 series lead over the Bruins. They will be underdogs if they advance to the conference finals.

Western Conference

Team…………To Win Series…….%………To Win Cup…….%

(2) Detroit………..-245……….71.0%…………..+255………28.2%

(8) Anaheim……..+245………29.0%………….+1400……..7.1%

* * * * * * * *

(3) Vancouver…..-125……….56.6%……………+780……….11.8%

(4) Chicago……..+125……….44.4%…………..+1000………9.1%

Eastern Conference

Team…………To Win Series…….%………To Win Cup…….%

(1) Boston……….+365………..21.5%…………..+1400……….7.1%

(6) Carolina………-365……….78.5%…………….+520……….16.1%

* * * * * * * * *

(2) Washington…-125……….56.6%…………….+800………..11.1%

(4) Pittsburgh…..+125………44.4%……………..+950…………9.5%

  • http://www.illegalcurve.com david

    Which IC contributor picked Det/Car…..

  • Missourimike

    Looks like the only upsets were Chicago and Pittsburgh although they were pretty marginal differences to be termed an upset.