Washington’s Chances

Posted by curve in Columns,Frozen Assets,New York Rangers,Washington Capitals on April 28, 2009 — 1 Comment

When the Capitals were down 3-1, IC’s Ari Baum-Cohen explained that Washington’s chances were not in line with the meager 8.7% of teams that have been able to comeback from a 3-1 series deficit.

Here was Ari’s Methodology:

Washington’s % Chance to win the series = 1/(odds win G5 * odds win G6 * odds win G7)

OR

1/(1.54*1.83*1.51)= 23.47%.

So, instead of tracking Washington’s chances at an arbitrary number, Ari calculated the Capitals’ chances of winning each game when determining their odds of a comeback.  As you can see, the team’s chances were far higher than 8.7%, as he had the Capitals at just under 25% to comeback in the series.

Well, now that the Capitals are tied 3-3 with the Rangers heading home to the Verizon Center for Game 7 tonight, Ari now has the Caps as having a 70.2% chance of making the next round.

Can the Rangers beat the odds?

  • Mikos

    With all the Caps I have in my pool lets hope the advance.